Crisis
 

As close followers of this forum will have noted I have been becoming ever moe hawkish this last week on the issue of employment prospects for Wannabes.

I have to tell you all know that my more negative expectations are being met.

No airline has yet failed but with Virgin laying off well over 100 pilots that become somewhat academic. Inside BA people are talking of Pilots being layed off as the Classic fleet is phased out alongside the Heathrow 737's being grounded. IF this happens you could be looking at 400 pilots being surplus to requirements.

That and Virgin would satisfy all pilot recruitment needs from other UK airlines for at least 18 months.

Folks, its going to hell in a handcart at the moment. You never see a crisis until it is past you and it was the same in the early 90's with the Gulf War when everyone kept saying things wouldn't be too bad right up until the collapse of some very well known airlines...

Perhaps in a months time things will have settled down. Perhaps in a months time the West will be in all out war with half the Muslim nations.

I cannot in all good faith advise anybody to start ruinously expensive flight training at this time.

I really really hope things do not get as bad as I fear they might. For my own job as well as yours.

:-(


WWW

Don't be so pessimistic. After 28 years spent in Civil Aviation, I have known several crisis. I was in charge of 150 flight engineer cadets in 1984, the Air France management has told us that they did not see the cadets on board defore 1991. In order to boost the recruitment all the french flight engineers have taken leaves (not paid). Six months later, Air France was in the situation they need the day after all the cadets. My advice to the wannabes: a crisis cannot last a very long period; be ready for the rush which will end the crisis.
eaglet WB (also known as froggy) and my personal hello to www

I believe the phrase rhymes with 'clucking bell'.

All the best folks.

Saw the Commerzbank aviation analyst on CNN today say the situation is the worst in the history of civil aviation and much worse than the gulf war.
Yesterday I was slightly pessimistic. Today I think there is a real chance of unemployment. Keep it in perspective though. You're still alive and you're not in the armed forces

Is it me or is reknowned World Aviation Analyst WWW repeating himself here?

[ 18 September 2001: Message edited by: AirScream ]

Yes I am repeating myself. Because I believe we are facing the biggest Wannabe crisis since 1991 - 5 year prior to PPRuNe.

WWW

WWW - Post's like this don't really help anyone!!Don't let that GO flight deck negativity get to you...

Firstly the BA rumours of grounding LHR's 737 fleet is cr@p, I mean, come on !!!
The Classic fleet has been planned to be phased out for a long time, being replaced by the 777.

Virgin are letting go 150/60 pilots and about 80 Flight Engineers, BA have not announced any pilot redundancies yet.

But I would say to anyone who asked me to put off starting any ATPL training for about 6 months then re-assess. Save the money and stay in employment. Thoses already in the system just carry on and get the licence issued. It may mean baggage handling/paper round or something for a while but so what....

It's all cyclic, when it comes around again the pilot shortage will be alot worse than it is now due to no-one training.

Hang-on in there guys, it may take 12 months, but when the recruitment starts again, there could be quite a choice!!

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A BETTER TIME THAN NOW TO BE A WANNABE. YOU HAVE NEVER HAD IT SO GOOD!!!!! PEOPLE AFTER FINISHING TRAINING ARE GETTING JET JOBS WITH ONLY 250HRS WITH MAJOR AIRLINES!

THERE ARE LOADS OF JOBS OUT THERE FOR YOU LOW HOUR JAA ATP PILOTS!!!!!

Flyboy has obviously just got back from a two week potholing holiday in Outer Mongolia and has not yet watched the news......

I don't think you are over reacting WWW - this situation looks extremely serious. Unfortunately right now the average airline punter's perception of getting on an aeroplane equates to climbing into a cruise missile. Of course we all know that flying is safer than it was before with the new security measures in place but there has been a huge drop in bookings post last Tuesday. Add to that the huge cost of the new security measures and the expected increase in fuel prices over fears of war in the Middle East and you are looking at a pretty grave situation for the airline industry. It's looking worse than 1991 in my view because that was due largely to the decrease in consumer confidence and raised fuel prices - but at that point we had not seen passenger jets hijacked by maniacs and flown into civilian targets - there was merely a fear over possible terrorist attacks on particularly US airlines.

Still it's not all bad, Tesco are taking on 20,000 new staff.......... ;)

If there is one thing that is guaranteed to happen when these sorts of disasters occur, it is the proliferation of misinformed twaddle by people who really ought to know better.

There will obviously be some pain, however it will not affect all sectors of the industry- my loads have been high all week, and will continue to be so as long as businessmen need to travel. It is, of course, a different story in the leisure market.

Nobody really knows how this will turn out, it will probably take a month or so for it to become clear which way things will go. I suggest we all sit tight and wait a bit before making sweeping statements- some people may be making life decisions based on what they read here...

Well said Raw Data.

I'm presently sitting here in New Zealand wondering whether to pay the remaining balance of my ticket to the UK to complete my ATPL's and CPL/MEIR/MCC in Nov or to wait and see what happens over the next 6 months. Being so far away I tend to glean my info from Pprune and have had a few highs and lows over the past week re future prospects.

The ticket has to be fully paid for by the 28th of Sept so I've got a little over a week to decide. I hope I end up going 'cause I'm really looking forward to the Gatbash. Might be rather subdued now though.

It's like jumping into a big black hole with no idea what is at the bottom.

All the best guys and gals.

FK

WWW

Just how many threads are you going to start telling would-be pilots that things look bad???

I think it is fair to say that we have all been shattered by recent events, and can see what has happened as a result, on the stock markets.. and beyond.

Yes, things look pretty ****ty at the moment and yes, you have ‘made it’ before the dreadful events of last week, but for ##### sake lets not kill off the idea of aviation as a career.

If we didn’t know you better one could be excused for thinking that this was a case of ‘I’m all right, and you guys are in the **** !’. I think we all know that that is not the case.

Lets be positive. Air transportation IS the future, and life will go on,… hopefully soon.

We have all, in whatever walk of life, been devastated by recent events, but lets look to the future which can, in the medium to long term, only look good for aviation as a whole.

I think you may be being just a bit harsh on WWW.

Just how bad does it have to get before its OK to start sounding the alarm?

Things were dodgy before the disaster last week, but we really are playing a different game now. Last week it was a case of what if weaker airlines go bust, now I think its what do we do when the weak airlines start to fail, just look at the position Aer Lingus has been put in by this tragedy.

WWW is just telling it how he sees it, but I do appreciate how important it is that we all wait and see how things play out.

As for people making life decisions on what they read here- I really doubt that anyone makes decisions on that scale without consulting numerous other sources first-or at least I hope they don't!

Nobody should panic or make rash decisions right now, but at the same time lets not get complacent or leave too much up to fate.

Not a nice time to be a wannabe.

Stay Safe
Eno

Clear Prop

I didn't read WW's post like that at all. Seems to me he's being brutally honest. Both WW and Scroggs provide the occasional required reality checks in this forum, and I would think most Wannabes are grateful for their input and advice in this regard.

The fact is the world is teatering on all out war - Western Economies are in danger of collapse, and the aviation industry is looking grim to say the least. Not a good time to be commencing very expensive training in a inter/trans continental industry one would think.

On the flipside - history has shown that sometimes seemingly negative occurences sometimes have a way of turning themselves into positives in the medium to long term.

As a previous poster said - this may actually create a shortage in 3 - 5 years time due to a lot a people deciding to pursue a career elsewhere because of the current situation.

At the end of the day - who knows - Nobody can say for certain the final outcome of the barbarity in the U.S. or the industry status over the next 5 years. I do however think it is fair to say that in the short term the industry is not a pretty picture.

I for one am seriously reconsidering my options, but will wait to see what pans out over the next few months. There may be light at the end of the tunnel.

Adjunct - Just read on a separate thread that Scroggs himself has just been made jobless - I think that pretty well sums it up.

[ 19 September 2001: Message edited by: Dundee ]

I'd like to add a little ray of hope here:

My story was that I got my BCPL and instructor rating in 1991. Within a month or two of Air Europe and Dan Air going belly up. After two years of doing about three hours instructing a week, and no prospect of any movement in the industry, I decided to step off the ladder and start afresh away from aviation on the other side of the world.(That's another story)

ANYWAY when I returned home for a visit (honeymoon actually) after five years, I spent some happy times in jump seats chatting to former colleagues and students of mine while they flew turboprops from the left hand seat. Many old friends I didn't catch up with because they were away flying jets.
So...Hang in there!!!! If I hadn't given up so easily, I'd be flying the big jets now too (as it is I actually prefer my little Cherokees in CAVOK Australia)

Hang in there but don't put all your eggs in the aviation basket. Have another way of keeping body and soul together because otherwise at times like this you'll become broke and bitter and no use to anyone.

Here in Aus our second airline has just gone belly up so it's pretty grim here too. But it will turn around, it alwys does.

"Pollyanna Foxtrot India"

While the situation right now is pretty dire, and may well get worse temporarily, there will be a recovery eventually.
If you are about to invest in an integrated course, and you have the facility to delay for a while, I'd wait for six months or so to see how things pan out. If you're starting the modular route you have less need to do anything precipitate, but I'd time your graduation for about 18 months to 2 years from now, by which time we should have passed rock bottom.
If you're already in training, you're likely to face a considerable period of job-searching when you finish. No-one will think the worse of you if you decide to go back to your old career to wait out the bad times.
Crisis? You bet, but it will pass. My kids are depending on it!

In my defence:

a) All I have advised here is suspending making any decision on training for 3 or 6 months.

b) For anyone questioning my motives I invite you to deal with a tidal wave of email and the fraught phone calls I am fielding from Wannabes terrified that their dream is becoming a nightmare in front of their eyes.

c) I am making lots of posts - you cannot seriously tell me that this is not the biggest issue PPRuNe Wannabes has ever been around for, 1996 - 2001 will be seen as the good years :-(

I am pleased that BEA's loads are holding up RD. So are Go's. Perhaps though those tickets were sold prior to the WTC. And we have not reached the serious UK recession yet... I'm certainly not getting into any chicken counting competitions.

I know all about the argument that it is possible to train in the worst of times so as to be ready for the upturn - Danny did just that in 1991. However it is not an ideal strategy for a younger Wannabe fincancing themselves of debt and the re-mortgage of the family home.

WWW

WWW

I wouldn't argue with most of what you have written, but I think a serious UK recession is very unlikely, and I'd say that we are more likely to get a slowdown than a recession of any sort. Aviation is facing very hard times, I agree, but I don't believe that is true generally.

I did heaps of economics at Uni but don't pretend to understand 1% of it. All I know is that Anatole Kaletsky (Award winning Economics journalist for The Times) who has been bullish right up until last week is now forecasting a UK recession.

I hope not. Don't shoot the messenger here.

WWW

Looks like it could be worse that 1991:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/bus...00/1540056.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/bus...00/1544050.stm


As many have said - its too early to tell. However, this week is not the one in which to hand £55k to a flying school. Give it at least 3 months to see how things pan out.

Good luck,

WWW

Air Taxi orders for 1000 YES 1000 aircraft!

Who's going to fly them then?

http://www.flyer.co.uk/news.php?HtmlStoryButton=675

Don't have a go at WWW just because he's calling it as he sees it. I think at the moment caution is the only solid advice anyone can give.

The key issue here is that nobody knows what the effect of last weeks atrocities will be, but we all have a rough idea that the otucome will not be good.

We're in uncharted territory here - the closest example to this we've got is the Gulf War - the problem is that the world is a different place now, even compared to 10 years ago. The way we work, the way we communicate, and as WWW said, there was no Pprune at the time either.

A recovery will come, and it may come quickly, or it may take years, we will all have a better idea of how it pans out in 3 - 6 months time.

I'm one of those guys who has the ticket but not the job - I can't stop looking now, I won't, however I'm realistic enough not to expect my mail to be brimming with opportunities now.

All the best guys, and think about it.

I think Scroggs is bang on. For those of you starting out, your best option is to keep the day job and try and do at least one lesson a week. Try and spread your training out instead of forking out for an integrated course.

As for me, I'm just finishing up my PPL and am going to do my ATPL's through one of the Distance Learing courses (probably Bristol) while still doing the odd bit of hour building at the weekend. That should take about 9-12 months, by which time the aviation world will hopefully be a bit more stable.

If, as we all hope HM Government works with the Aviation Industry, then that will to some small extent soften the blow.
Re-investment of Air Passenger Duty into heightened security and other measures is but one way of aiding the Airlines.
Financial lifelines will not happen in this country.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,2001320008-2001324059,00.html[/url]

[ 19 September 2001: Message edited by: Base leg ]

I think it depends on if you have to borrow to do your training.

Personally i have just dumped my job to finish off and i am loathed not to complete my current plans.

The advantages i see to completing your training now are that the schools are not going to be busy, so there won't be as many logistical problems.

When the feel good factor comes round again all the guys which have taken early retirement etc will be out of it. And there will be a big hole because the airlines arn't training any of their own. Which will take 12-13 months to fill after things go up.

Also small company jets are going to be more cost effective on insurance grounds etc. So there might be more air taxi work than before.

So by training now you will be ready for when things pick up. If people don't train for a long time the smaller FTO's might go out of business. Which would mean that when the industry is up again you won't be able to get the training even if you have the dosh because the airlines would grab the places.

So i think i will get trained then go back to work again until it sorts its self out.

MJ

WWW,
Have you heard any news from the inside about any changes in Go-Fly's current recruiting process?

Scroggs, WWW et al are probably right!

I think it is advisable that those who are about to embark on an integrated course wait awhile for the dust to settle before committing a MASSIVE sum of money. Those considering modular courses can hedge their bets a little by doing the course in bits and watching the situation carefully. At least the modular students don't have to fork out upfront almost £50K.

Whatever happens, best of luck everyone!

Charlie Foxtrot India
I agree with you when it comes to the aviation industry, hang in there and do not give up and do not put all your eggs in one basket, have something to fall back on.
Things will get better, we all know the industry works around cycles.

My school motto was,
"What ever you do, do it well"
Ash
:)

Like Mad Jock, I've just quit my job, post exams, to go complete the CPL/IR. Don't have much choice but to carry on and hope that it all sorts itself out.

What strikes me as slightly odd with all this is we're only a week out from the terrible events in Manhattan, so how can the airline industry accurately predict the impact of what's happened to the extent that they're laying off thousands of people? Do they have a crystal ball, or is it just pure guesswork as to the possible reaction of the travelling public? Or is it, as I have heard said, just a fine excuse to cut back.

If something major in terms of a global conflict kicks off, then fair enough, you could understand the need for massive cut backs. But I can't help feel much of this is purely media fuelled knee-jerking and hysterics (and I speak from the position of having worked in the media). We now live in a society which takes its lead from the media, rather than the other way around like it was in the old days (bah humbug, etc).

Whilst it sounds harsh, the vast majority of those who didn't lose anyone in this tragedy, will soon forget about it and get back to their normal routine in terms of travelling, particularly when the media move onto something else. Sadly, it's just human nature.

No point in bashing WWW though. The man's just trying to sound a helpful note of caution to those in the luxurious position of not having just told their boss: "I'm quitting this dump to go and fly for a living. Goodbye."...

[ 19 September 2001: Message edited by: Flandan ]

People are such bloody sheep :mad:

The world is in fundamentally the same economic shape as it was a fortnight ago if you think about it. Without demeaning the scale of the crime, all that has happened is that a few dozen fundamentalist w@nkers from an insignificant backwater Islamic nation have carried out an act of terrorism and a small and targeted military operation may need to be launched by the USA in order to bring the culprits to justice.

The Israelis have been having to deal with these kind of manic suicidal terrorist scum for decades, and they're as strong and economically sound today as they've ever been. As soon as America becomes a target it's world war bloody 3 though :rolleyes: The fact that this one act by this handful of insignificant religious nutters is now looking like costing many billions of dollars, hundreds of thousands of jobs and plunging the entire world into financial meltdown is just bizarre to me. Don't you just want to reach out, grab the consumers by the scruff of the neck and tell them to get a grip?

I say keep on learning to fly just on general principle, and two fingers to the pr!cks who want to make their political statement by attacking our industry. Life's too short, and airline economics are too bizarre, to risk not being around and fully qualified when the next hiring boom arrives ... it might be in 10 years or it might be in 3 months, nobody really knows do they?

Keep your chins up people, and for God's sake spread a bit of positivity to everyone else you meet - the world will return to normal soon enough. See you in a flight deck soon :D :D :D

Although I disagree sometimes with WWW in the presentation of his points of view and opinion,he has shown some well considered arguments which have involved some foresight.I have to agree on his assessment of the market
I think the news we've had today and that due tomorrow will reinforce the sense of gloom for the pilot market.

The coming weeks will give a clearer picture.
In the longer term, hopefully there is cause to be optimistic, but who knows?

Airsream - I hardly think that an unproven aircraft ordered by an unproven operator merits much cause for celebration. 1,000 aircraft? Sounds a little bit convenient for soundbites to me.

For those who think a surge in corporate and air taxi jet work will help them are sadly mistaken. Its probably the hardest market to get into. Don't bother to talk to them until you have 2000hrs TT and 1000 Jet 'cause for a start they cannot insure you with less than that.

For those that disagree with me. Fine. Thats your right. Just remember please that up until a week ago I was banging the drum for pilot training and postulating that there had rarely been a better time to be a Wannabe. My Bullish mood HAS turned very Bearish this last week. That is becuase I have researched this, mulled it over, and made that decision on the basis of what I know.

I am not known as a panicky person.

My advice to date has been to put off the EXPENSIVE flight training investments for 3 - 6 months IF you can. That is all.

If you choose to take another view then that is fine by me. I've been there, done it and now the t-shirt needs a wash. However, in response to all the people asking my advice at this time I can only in all good faith take the line that I am.

Good luck and I hope I am proved wrong.

WWW

From todays Times.

This is very very serious:

-----

BA to cut 6,000 jobs as ticket sales plunge

BY BEN WEBSTER, TRANSPORT CORRESPONDENT AND CHRISTINE BUCKLEY

BRITISH Airways will announce thousands of job losses today in the most severe economic blow to Britain resulting from last’s week’s terrorist attacks.
The airline has summoned union representatives to its Heathrow headquarters. They are likely to be told that at least 6,000 staff must go as ticket sales plunge for transatlantic flights.

The losses will be on top of 1,800 job cuts for this financial year, which BA announced two weeks ago in response to the global economic slowdown. The airline employs 62,000 people, all bar a few thousand in Britain.

Tens of thousands more jobs in Britain’s aircraft manufacturing industry are at risk, with Airbus planning to follow Boeing’s announcement yesterday that it would cut 20,000 to 30,000 jobs in America. More than 60,000 people in Britain are employed making wings for Airbus aircraft and supplying parts to the Toulouse-based manufacturer. Airbus has 10,000 staff at two factories in Broughton, near Chester, and at Filton, near Bristol.

Virgin Atlantic, the launch customer for Airbus’s biggest plane to date, the A340-600, said yesterday that it was seeking talks to discuss postponement of its order for ten aircraft. Earlier this week Sir Richard Branson’s airline announced that it would be cutting 1,200 jobs.

The A380 Airbus superjumbo is also under threat. The project, which has been propped up with £500 million from the British Government in the form of a soft loan, is intended to create 22,000 jobs in Britain.

Lufthansa, the German airline, was reported yesterday to be considering cutting jobs and delaying orders of 15 A380s. Other airlines are understood to be reviewing their commitment to the £7.5 billion project. This morning union leaders from the aviation industry will urge Stephen Byers, the Transport Secretary, to give a tax rebate to the airlines and cover the costs of extra security measures.

Sir Ken Jackson, the AEEU general secretary, said: “Tens of thousands of jobs are on the line and we want the Government to support the airline and aerospace industries in ways which we haven’t done before.”

Roger Lyons, general secretary of the Manufacturing Science and Finance union, said: “We are appealing for companies not to make a knee-jerk reaction to this temporary downturn in business.”

Airlines face soaring insurance costs in the wake of the attacks, with London insurers cancelling all war and terrorism cover from Monday to raise their premiums. Rupert Atkin, chairman of Lloyd’s War Risk Committee, said that airlines would face severe increases in war cover for the aircraft themselves. “It’s fair to say that it’s hundreds of per cent,” he said.

Airlines could also face an extra insurance charge for passengers of about £1 a head.

Industry analysts predict air fares will fall initially as airlines try to tempt back reluctant passengers, but in the medium term prices will have to increase to reflect rising costs.

The six biggest European airlines will request European Union support today for an emergency aid package in a meeting with Loyola de Palacio, the Transport Commissioner. European competition rules prohibit state aid for private companies, but the firms will point out that America is about to agree a multibillion-dollar package for its airlines.

The Association of European Airlines said that its members were losing £20 million a day in sales. The airlines will request a loosening of competition rules that prevent them from collaborating. They are also likely to ask the Commission to delay new regulations that would force them to compensate passengers “bumped” off overbooked flights.

More than 30,000 jobs across Britain’s aviation industry are likely to be lost in the short term, Phil Butterworth-Hayes, civil aviation editor of Jane’s publications, said.

Rolls-Royce said that it was too early to determine what effect last week’s attacks would have. In February it received £250 million in government finance for a new generation of engines, including a type intended for the A380. Mr Byers, then the Trade Secretary, had said the money would protect 7,000 jobs, mainly in Derby.

----------

For all the optimism in the World I fail to see the silver lining here.

WWW

See:
http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimat...2&t=010898&p=3


When BA stop recruiting it hits hard. The IT pilot does not resign, the regional pilot does not resign, the small operator/flying instructor does not resign. Thus BA stopping hiring a pilot results in 3 - 4 vacancies not being advertised.

WWW

It's 7,000;

BRITISH AIRWAYS CONFIRMS 7,000 - JOB CUTS

British Airways has confirmed it's to axe 7,000 jobs.

The company says the cutbacks are in response to the impact of the US terrorist attacks on transatlantic business.

BA had already announced 1,800 job losses earlier this month.

The latest announcement follows the decision by American Airlines and United Airlines to cut 40,000 jobs between them.

BA has been hit by the disruption following the attacks, and expects a fall in passenger numbers on transatlantic routes - which make up 38% of its capacity.

(c) Copyright Ananova Ltd 2001, all rights reserved.

Gill have collapsed. I guess around 40 pilots join the 160 odd predicted at Virgin.

Gentlemen this is not good.

I am just amazed at how the market has gone from being so good to so bad in 10 days.

Hopefully this time next year it'll all be back to normal. For those about to graduate or job hunting - and I know hae been speaking to some of you today - you have my heartfelt sympathies.

WWW

WWW (or is it the Grim Reaper!?)

Forgive me if I sound a little tense, but I work for "Big Airways" and am obviously unsure of my future....

How much longer are you going to keep writing things that people can work out for themselves...For gods sake, lets just see how this industry develops in the next few months and we'll all see for ourselves...

I think enough has been said on this subject so please close your topic and wind yer neck in !!!

If he news of Gill on top of everything else is correct WWW is right this surely is a crisis, beyond all our worst nightmares two weeks ago. Everyone is of course a little upset and rightly so. Jobs are being lost and for alot of wannabes they are let with a massive debt and no job. As WWW rightly suggest if you are about to embark on training just hold fire for a few months. It is time to sit back see what the US do in response to these cowardly acts. If their action is swift recovery of the industry could follow.

Additionally as IFR points out on another thread, this like many other downturns is part of a cycle. There will in time be another recruitment boom. However that is not going to happen for at least the next 2 years. Sit tight! :confused:

MR WWW!
I know what you are trying to say, but why be so optimistic?

Honiley-
If you doubt the writings of WWW then look back in 6 months on this forum, and count how many wannabees are starting threads along the lines of' just landed my first jet job !'etc.
I don't think there will be a single one. All the guys/girls I recently trained with are looking at around 1 year before anything moves again.
I'm just glad I have a fall back plan to keep me going, until that day I land in the right hand seat.