Opinion!
 

A lot of opinions flying about on this thread with WWW at one end of the scale and Nic-Av at the other (and me somewere in the middle).

I would not take advice from my plumber on medical issues so why the hell should you take advice from any professional pilots (well WWW and me) on financial issues?

It is for you to make up your own minds about entering aviation, I have done the airline gone bust thing with a jet job in the morning and on the dole in the afternoon, but unlike some of my other pilots I did no sit about bleating on about "fighting for my job". I accepted the situation and with a positive attitude got employment to pay the bills and then went about finding another flying job.

I have had a great time aviation, undoubtedly I could have made more money in some other profession but it would not have been as much fun. For me the risks have paid off for you they may not.

However if you don't take the risks you will forever be one of life's spectators and die wishing you had done more with your time.

But all of this is just my opinion

http://www.erinaceous.com/index.php

Employing 5000 staff in the property services industry they called in the Administrators this morning. Thats many more staff than were working at Rover Cars when it went under.

We are moving into the job loss phase now. Fear and panic in the housing market will see accelerated losses and very possibly a run on another bank or building society and yes I am looking at you in the bowler hat.

The rapidly broadening realisation amongst the general population is that the credit crunch is not going to be confined to the rarified and removed world of high finance and hedge fund. This realisation will result in reduced spending decisions. All airlines have high fixed costs and a rapid drop in sales on tiny margins means they often go from bumper year to crisis at amazing speed.

By all means continue to deploy your training plan. Perhaps research personal bankruptcy/IVA laws though so you know what your options might be if you do find yourself entering the jobs market during a recession. Perhaps you could structure your finances NOW to protect your assets if the worst comes to the worst and you end up unemployed and severely in debt.

WWW

WWW if your read the companies press release it states in its letter...

"The administrators of the Company expect to effect a sale of the Insurance
division of the Group, Erinaceous Insurance Services Limited, to a company owned by the Company's lenders.

i.e ... they let them go bust so they could pick up the holding

The Residential Management division (Residential Management Group Limited and its subsidiaries) and Property Maintenance division (Erinaceous Property
Maintenance Limited) also remain outside of any insolvency process and continue to trade as normal"

i.e. ... trade as normal, implying no job losses


Maybe you should check the facts on this particular Company if using it to make a point, before shouting "JOB LOSSES" on here.

Its a fair point. Calling in the Administrators doesn't necessarily mean there will be job losses and doubtless there is value to be had in a restructure. I think you'd be very worried if you worked there though? This isn't a local chain of estate agents laying off a few sales staff (though 4,000 will be this year according to their own trade body).

WWW

WWW
 

You grasp the failure of this company as evidence of the crash theory that you are so keen to promote but the company had had a less than clean reputation for some years.

If you had been at Shoreham Airport (one of the company's investments) you would have picked up on rumours about the company a long time back.

The fact of the matter is this company was likely to have gone to the wall at any time and the economic slow down just made the failure sooner rather than later.

Further to that I am told that fraud is being investigated, if this is so the failure of the company might well be down to some one with there hands in the till if this turns out to be the case it hardly supports your economic crash theory.

How about this one...

Credit crunch continues to bite business says Ernst & Young

~Profit warnings top 100 for second consecutive quarter~
Research released by Ernst & Young today reveals that UK plc saw no respite in the first quarter of 2008 as profit warnings reached 114; the highest first quarter figure since 2001 and up 11 per cent from Q1 2007.

Keith McGregor, Restructuring partner at Ernst & Young comments: “Profit warnings remained above the 100 mark for the second quarter in a row, driven by the deepening impact of the credit crunch and a record number of retail warnings. The last time UK plc issued more than 100 profit warnings in consecutive quarters it was 2001, when the end of the technology-led boom meant painful readjustment. The hangover from the credit-boom could be equally severe especially as some sectors are warning on current poor trading but may have failed to factor in the impact of a sustained downturn in demand.”

“The credit crunch will become real and personal to borrowers this year, especially the two million mortgage holders coming off fix-rate deals. The base rate is expected to continue to fall gradually in 2008, but the same inflationary pressures that will limit the ability of the Bank of England to lower rates, will also eat into the benefit of any rate cut for the consumer. The period of economic uncertainty may even persuade individuals to increase savings from their historic lows, leaving retailers with even less of the disposable income pie.”

You don't have to look far for more and more evidence that things are deteriorating at an astonishing rate... :(

WWW
 

WWw - out of interest, what's your estimated break-even point with selling your house? Ie: what percentage drop in the market do you need to cover the costs of selling and then buying (ignoring the personal hassle factor, just plain numbers).

I've been considering doing the same.

I assume when calculating the "break even point" one would factor in the wasted money spent on rent in the interim period? Ok, i suppose you could say that the large portion of a mortgage payment is to cover the interest leaving a relitively small portion to actually cover the repayment.

Oh I've been shorting this company for some time. My view is that only three parts of the business (insurance, the residential management unit and the property maintenance division) look likely to be spun out. The rest is toast.

Americas 4th largest bank needing $8bn of emergency funding today. UK manufacturers are seeing costs rising by a record 20.4 per cent in March (factory gate prices hit at 17-year high). Philips followed GE from last week in announcing a slump in profits this morning (28%).

It doesn't matter if you are selling money, making widgets or designing white goods - all sectors of the economy are suffering. The airline sector just can't escape this.

WWW

WWW- points are very valid and aspiring pilots would do well to listen to his words of wisdom instead of going on the attack (thank god I don’t have to sit next to any of you on a 12hr flight)
I work as a consultant in the hedge fund industry and know of a lot of people are actually canceling yacht orders… haha ..
Macro economically the outlook does not look bright at all. LIBOR spreads against bank of England base rate is massive, US and UK gov auctions were 3 times over subscribed last month. Banks are basically hording cash as their balance sheets have taken a massive hit. The entire UK economy will suffer, home lending, business lending , finance leading , business investment all will be effected.

I think its fair to say all of the airlines will have killed their expansion plans…. There’s that number being banded around that lot’s of pilots will be retiring soon which will create a massive pilot shortage. If the airlines still lack pilots after the cut backs I’m sure you guys will do great J …

I think you need to take the wider global economic outlook into consideration before signing up to that 50k HSBC loan (If u can still get it ) then looking for a job (that might not be there) and still having the £1000 per month loan repayments for seven years.

I really don’t know how you guys manage to pay back £1000 a month on £30k a year the sums just don’t add up. For £1000 a month I could fly one or two hours in the Jet Provost and drive to the airfield in a Porsche!

Not meaning to stick my oar in, where it is not wanted nor needed; however I do not agree as some have said, that this thread is in anyway useful to the so-called 'wannabes'. (not intended as a dig at any individual)

Personally I feel it would be a good move to transfer this thread over to 'Jet Blast'.

YS

v6g I plan on 30% nominal house price falls.


The only real cost per month is:


Your released equity in the bank earning interest (around £430 a month per £100k)

PLUS

The mortgage interest you used to pay per month (around £500 a month per £100k)

PLUS

The monthly saving in Buildings and Life insurance premiums

PLUS

Whatever you budgeted for house maintenance per month

MINUS

Your new monthly rent.



In my case its a massive monthly saving to rent from a dumb BTL landlord than from the Halifax. In the current ridiculous house market it if laughably easy to rent a house that would cost you double to buy using a mortgage. Landlords are subsidising their tennants in the hope of future capital growth. Which is now capital shrinking. Which is why we have a nasty crisis. If they want to let me rent their house for (a lot) less than it costs them to buy off the bank then I'm not going to complain.

When it comes to buying you are a chain free buyer able to gaurantee to exchange within 6 weeks. That is worth tens of thousands of pounds when it comes to negotiation time. Find a distressed seller and it can be worth more than that.

Its just a little late to STR now but probably still worth it. You'd be amazed at how nice estate agents are to you when you are chain free with a chunky deposit :)


WWW


YellowSub - I can't think of anything more important to a Wannabes career than whether they start out in a recession or a boom. Given the amount of discussion on which school to go to (as if it matters) I think we can afford one thread on the looming crisis..

"For £1000 a month I could fly one or two hours in the Jet Provost and drive to the airfield in a Porsche!"

...ha ha some of us may have decided to just that for the next year or so... :ok:

As for is this thread useful well if it acts as a forum to also highlight to wanabees which airlines are struggling then why not?? (But then again I started it so I may be biased...)

It probably is one of the best times to train presuming this recession will be over in a few years, also probably the worst time to be getting into the associated debt though.

Rex - I'll start work on that time machine just after I've fixed my crystal ball.

I concede that words of warning a while back would have been timely. That's why I have been making grisly noises about the economy here for some time. Over six months ago I posted here:


http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpos...7&postcount=95


My views have hardened since then as the situation has deteriorated further and faster than I thought likely.

I think that a lot of people are expecting at worst a slowdown on the scale we saw post Sept11th which resulted in Wannabes basically having no job opportunities for around 2 years. And yes there were plenty of exceptions to that but for most guys with <500hrs there was a total drought of jobs as some airlines went bust and others froze.

My own view is that we face a 1990 - 1993 style recession rather than a 2002 - 2003 slowdown. That is a very different beast. In the months following Sept 11th in the UK you saw Ryanair and easyJet go to Boeing and Airbus and place orders for nearly 250 new aircraft. Deliveries started within a year. Both operated cadet schemes of some form and both soaked up a lot of pilots displaced from other airlines.

At this time easyJet has shut the recruitment door and Ryanair is planning to ground 20 aircraft over the winter. In both cases UK expansion is only planned to be limited and there may be none at all.

Just these two companies being in a different recruitment mode this time will see even a post Sept 11th slowdown me MUCH more painful for Wannabes than last time. A full blown recession would be an order of magnitude worse.


There are things people can do. Even if they are embarked on an Integrated course there is nothing to stop you cancelling the SSTR you were toying with doing. Nothing to stop you contacting your creditors NOW before you get to the repayment phase and seeing if terms and conditions can be improved. You can make plans for personal insolvency by perhaps spending any savings you have now rather than using a loan to preserve them for a rainy day. If you are going to go bust then its best to have spent all your money.

You might be able to choose between a full time and part time groundschool course. You might be able to ask your employer if part time working or a career break is available which given business belt tightening it might be. This might allow you to keep your old job in some form even whilst you acquire your licenses at a slower rate. You might be able to look at training abroad rather than in the UK (something I'm not a big fan of) as it can save a lot of money in the early training days given the Dollar rate.

There are lots of things to ponder. I hope this thread helps people to ponder.

I certainly think quite a few people will decide not to train or that the credit allowing them to do so will be removed. I think that a great many people will no longer be able to release money by selling their house or gettiing their parents to remortgage. I think that therefore competition for jobs may be less tough in 18 months from now.

I'm perfectly delighted that this view has been expressed as this thread is all about exploring the issues for others benefit.

I just happen to think there won't be any jobs for people to compete for as I expect some airlines to go bust in the meantime.

Which is sad and scary.


WWW

Ah Ha ! real money based trainning.
 

WWW it s good to see that you have mentioned that it might be better to do a modular course over a longer period than get into mega loan situation.

It has long been my contention that the price diference between an integrated course and a modular one is a large price to pay for a bit of help finding a job at the end of the trainning.

Forget all the hype about requireing to be "selected" to get on an integrated course it is all about the trainning company getting your business.

I find myself in agreement with WWW (now thats a change!) about taking a little more time and working wile doing the course part time, this way you can pay as you go with cash that is yours not the banks and this way you might only have to get a loan for the a part of the course (such as the IR).

This is the way that I went about the fATPL, the morgage got paid I only went into a little debt (£7500 in todays money) and I even managed a small holiday during all this.
Of late there has been too much of a rush to spend someone elses money my training was based largley on sound finances and a lot of long hours doing two jobs to pay for it. At the time a few of the guys at the flying club had a bit of a snigger at my slow progress but when the late 80's slump hit I was the one who did not loose the house and car
May be my attitude is a bit old fashoned but 20 years on I enjoy debt free life.

Thanks for the personal anecdote. Such an old fashioned attitude will be once again the height of fashion by this time next year.

WWW

This is an interesting side effect from WWW earlier post on erinacious... where are you doing your training?? Shock horror a kock-on impact to aviation....


http://forums.flyer.co.uk/viewtopic....er=asc&start=0

Dubai airport announced a 15% increase in passengers during the 1st quarter of 2008 compared to 2007.

I foresee that many European pilots will be hired by the Middle-East in the next decade.

Qantas chief executive Dixon said that the airline industry will be okay.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-industry.html

Qantas is shifting much of their work to Jet *. Qantaslink are parking aeroplanes because of a lack of suitable pilots. Well, a lack of suitable pilots who'll work for the money offered.

The lean airlines will survive but the inflexible, top heavy airlines will probably topple. The niche players may be vulnerable unless they can adapt to the changing market.

Pretty much like students considering flight training. Be flexible, keep an eye on the market both financial and the airline industry. Consider your own case, risks/benefits, your own financial position and make an informed decision about whether modular or integrated is best for you. (read financial papers, they're the ones most likely to tell the truth versus sensationalist tabloids)

My personal opinion is to go modular if you are already gainfully employed. Do your training part time or in blocks while continuing to save money. The people least likely to get a job during a recession/slow down is the low houred pilot. Read Flight International etc and as the financial market shows signs of bottoming, do your IR so it's all nice and fresh for interviews. (Your scan is the first thing to go if you're not using it.. guess what's looked at closely during a sim check.)

If you're lucky enough to get onto a cadet scheme that offers a firm job offer at the end, then consider that. Other wise, I wouldn't be spending a heap of cash on a full time course right now.

NJE are still expanding and growing. Admittedly our growth appears to have slowed to 15% per annum instead of +25%.

LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors UK house price balance felll in March to its lowest in the 30-year history of the survey, RICS said on Tuesday, sending a strong signal that the housing market is cooling fast.
The net balance of surveyors reporting falling, rather than rising, house prices deteriorated to -78.5 in the three months to March from -65.7 in February -- the lowest since survey began in January 1978 and well below forecasts for a reading of -67.5. The figures are likely to reinforce expectations the Bank of England will need to continue cutting interest rates this year,after trimming rates by 25 basis points to 5 percent last week. Britain's biggest mortgage lender Halifax said last week that house prices fell in March at their sharpest pace since the recession of the early 1990s as the credit crunch forces banks to toughen up mortgage terms and begins to hurt consumers. "Sentiment is at a very low ebb and will continue to remain depressed while the economy suffers from this unique liquidity blight," said Jeremy Leaf, RICS spokesman.

The chronology of the last recession was massive house price inflation in the years of the late 1980's (Lawson +32.0% 1st Quarter of '89) (Brown +25.8% 1st Quarter '03). Then you get an affordability crisis leading to a crash in house prices. Then finally you get the recession that stems from a collapse in consumer confidence and associated job losses.

ERM related interest rates was partly a trigger last time. This time its a credit crunch.

You'll read lots of arguments in the months ahead that there won't be a house price crash or a recession because employment remains high. This is bogus. The unemployment comes towards the end and merely perpetuates and prolongs the recession. Its not initially causal.

I think from the hunted look in Gordons eyes that he knows it will be bad and that there is nothing a small government with no money can do about it.


WWW

Easyjet recrutment
 

As www says Easyjet have stopped recruting and are over crewed for the winter but it is the fear with some of the easyjet trainers that the company won't have enough crews to cover next summers flying program.

It will be interesting to see if stopping recrutmet is a wise move in the face of an economic crash or management panic in the face of a slow down in the economy.

Only time will tell.

I think another thing to remember when hearing of Ryanair and the like putting 20 aircaft offline 'for the winter' is that there is a lot of spin on these statements for the sake of the share prices, maybe what they actually mean is that 'things are slowing down and we're cutting loss making routes early.'

Another interesting thing is that i know a head of a mortgage sales company that 'hasn't sold a single mortgage in 3 weeks' and seen half their colleagues laid off in the past month. I wonder if they'll spend there redundancy on a weekend away in europe with the crap exchange rate- i think not!

What slowdown eh, McDonalds here i come!

Given the near impossibility of making pilots redundant and the very low turnover rate that would occur in a recession I suspect all airlines will be desperate NOT to be overcrewed. Perhaps this will be good news for the contracting agencies in the coming months.

Parc and the like certainly seem to have no shortage of work for people.

WWW

This will not doubt lead to more lay-offs over the other side of the pond....

Delta buys Northwest to create world's biggest airline
By James Quinn, Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 8:03am BST 15/04/2008

Delta Air Lines has agreed to buy rival Northwest Airlines in a $3.6bn deal that will create the world's largest airline and is likely to trigger a wave of consolidation across the industry.

Delta and Northwest have confirmed merger
Following months of talks, Delta and Northwest have confirmed their merger plans, that will be structured as a takeover of Northwest by Delta but will value both airlines at around $3bn each.

The pair were close to announcing their merger back in February, but that plan was derailed following disagreements between Delta and its all-powerful pilots over the future seniority of pilots post-merger.

UA and CO will probably merge very soon as well.

Don't worry there's enough jobs in the U.S.

Dayjet is hiring 5 to 10 pilots per month likely to increase to 30-40 per month by year-end when Eclipse starts to ramp-up their production.
They pay quite good salaries:

http://airlinepilotcentral.com/airli...al/dayjet.html

nich av - hardly inspiring.

If you expect people on here to be inspired that dayjet are hiring on the EA500 then perhaps it might be worth a rethink.

EA's days are numbered without major financial restructuring, the premiums for that aircraft are now nearly nil and have transferred to mustang, probably because they are flown with a basic wing leveller/ heading bug autopilot and it will be "some time" beofre thay get approved for flight into known icing.

It will also be "some time" before EASA certification

"cos its crap" (My quote) :E

Wannabees do just enough training to get you to the point where by you have an instructors rating, get some p1 time (albeit in a single - common sense does not have a multi rating!) and when things even sniff of picking up do a multi IR and be 12-18months nearer the command course than your pears when the jet jobs reappear.

Less debt, less frustration, more skilled, more hours, more sense

Fellow trainees please do not do an instructor rating. That's my plan. All mine I tell you......


Dear God, the groundschool revision has turned my brain to mush.......... now where was I. Oh yes Portsmouth. Wibble.

Halifax, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, has raised rated for the second time this month as the crisis in the credit markets grips the wider economy.

The lender plans to hike the rates by as much as 0.5% from tomorrow.


Holy Hell. Talk about pouring petrol on a house fire! Half a percent hike in mortgages just sneaked out in an after business hours statement.

I can just hear the summer holiday budget evaporating...

WWW

And thats after they met the PM in the morning who asked them to lower rates.... but instead they still put them up!

Tough times ahead for the mortgage market although this must increase the chances of a bail-out as the government must be sh*tting themselves

Thats the most sensible thing I have read on this thread.

For those that haven't been around as long as myself and a few others WWW has been a profit of doom ever since he started coming to these hallowed forums.

Here is one of his from 2003. Sound familiar? Just at the time when FR and EZY were going nuts with new orders.

Its interesting if you keep saying the same thing long enough it will eventually happen.

Sorry WWW, but if you don't occasionaly change the record people stop listening.

Last weeks flight had a careers supplement about working in the Middle East, it made very interesting reading. Emirates need 1000 pilots over the next 3 years, Etihad need about 200. These pilots will come from all over the globe, some will come from established airlines here in the UK. TUI-fly, TCX, EZY and FR to name but a few. Which in turn moves the pilot pool along. A quick flick through this weeks Flight shows 12 adverts for pilots, ranging from flight instructors through to BA.

However, while the pilot job market will continue to move here in the UK we do face problems, oil price, Euro exchange rate are two, the Dollar rate has insulated us from the worst of the oil price rises but if this slips substantially then a lot of airlines are in trouble. And if a big one goes bust, all bets are off.

My personal advice is to try to arrange training so your not graduating this year, if that's not possible then have a backup plan to keep yourself current.

While I don't want to get into an argument over the British economy, I think we are in allot better shape, long term, than the headlines would have us believe.

Indeed Jonty, unfortunately only the bad news makes the headlines.

Uk unemployment has fallen by 39,000 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7350042.stm)

Now if that had been an increase all hell might have very well broken out, instead a small article on the bbc news page is all. That said, theres no doubt a slow down is upon us/beckoning, and by simply keeping a back-up plan and a close eye on how the economy is evolving is probably the best two pieces of advice in this thread.

(edited to add an UN to make sense, WWW)

Ouch that hurts.

I hope you don't work for a flight school, otherwise you're gonna endure the dozens of pages long "you're biased" **** from 3 or 4 members on here. :ok:

There maybe a slowdown upon us but the airline industry will survive. Have a read of this in The Times, Turbo-Prop the way forward?

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3745007.ece

Whilst the requirements for pilots from the likes of Emirates and Gulf Air et al all sounds like good news, generally their requirements are 4,000 hours of jet time. Traditionally you would have said that when the big boys are recruiting then that is good news for those further down the food chain. That has certainly been the case when BA have been recruiting historically as it meant jobs at Flybe etc have been freed up and they have been forced to lower their entry requirements to man the fleet. BUT I suspect that there will be blood on the floor with the continuing increase in fuel prices pushing some of the marginal niche routes and operators to the wall.

The first thing that happens in a recession is that people stop going on holidays. That then impacts on the charter and loco carriers first. There are already carriers only offering summer contracts to experienced crews and unpaid leave during the off season. Then business travelers decide to conduct meetings via tele conferences and seek major discounts from their travel providers.

The end result is you end up with a bunch of experienced guys looking for work. They have bills to pay just like anyone and beggers can't be choosers so they could well take the jobs that might have been for the ab-initio pilot when times were previously tough for the recruiters.

Add into the mix the fact that a certain loud mouthed CEO of a loco has a war chest of some 1bn quid to play with and you might just see quite a few of the smaller players no longer around. When times are tough you can always look forward to a 1m seat sale which might just tip others over the edge. Also what will come of Alitalia? 99.9% of mergers lead to cost cutting including job cuts so expect a flood of experienced CV's to be hitting HR desks across Europe. And that is without even considering a BMI/Virgin merger. There are reports that the start ups in the former Eastern Bloc are facing tough times. These typically took on ab-initio and self type funded bods. Many of these people will now have the hallowed 500hrs on type and probably an ATPL as well and could well be seeking to move back to the motherland.

Tread carefully and try to minimise your risk. Certainly don't be popping off to the bank and raising 100k on the basis of some marketing hype from the usual suspects.

The picture that is emerging here is just one of balance....

At one end you have Nich Av who believes that the aviation job market is going to expand rapidly in the next 12 months (due to a range of reasons i.e. a growing number of private jets, Middle east, asia) and at the other WWW who thinks the UK is going into a huge recession and we are going back to a 2001 type job market.

Personally from where I sit the truth is in the middle but certainly closer to WWW than Nich Av.

Nich Av you clearly feel offended by what some people have said about your comments. Whilst I make no apology from my side for having a different view to you and thinking some of your comments are frankly miss-informed (oil price hasn't gone up in real terms??) I respect you have a right to your view even if it seem pretty fanciful sat where I am when 1,000s of people that were filling business class seats for the past 5 years are losing their jobs.

The real value in this thread seems to be it is keeping wanabees up to speed with how quickly the finance (where you get your loan from) and job markets are changing which have to be THE most important things for a wanabee.

Jonty - I'll happily stand by that posting of mine in 2003.

We were just about to enter GW2, it did look like MyTravel might go bust, we were only 18 months from Sept11th and there were a lot of ex-Sabena and Swiss and other experienced pilots looking for work. Doing the PPL, some Groundschool and some hours wasn't a bad plan and it isn't now. No need to rush into an Integrated course or Multi IR or CPL when the wx radar is painting so much magenta.

For those that haven't been around as long as myself and a few others WWW has been a profit of doom ever since he started coming to these hallowed forums.


Not withstanding that I've always been here since this forum was switched on I refute that I have only one record and that its always doom. I've acknowledged many times in 2005 and 2006 that we were firmly in Boom territory and that jobs were aplenty.


* * * * * *


If I might point you to another posting I made in 2003 on this forum on 5th May:



http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpos...9&postcount=14


Firstly, on a personal note, well done Luke - glad to see things worked out for you...

I am certain that things will really pick up in two years time - aviation is going to go the same way as it is in the US and that means 20% sustained growth for the next decade to reach US like levels. Just wait until there is an easyJet France, and Ryanair Germany and - sadly - no longer a Go-Fly Spain operating at the same levels as in the UK... Business travellers are demanding frequency in smaller aircraft - that still need 2 pilots.

Long Haul is looking good as well. The internet is making freight be shipped half way accross the world to a consumer who wants it delivered in 24hrs. Huge business markets in Latin America and China are barely yet exploited. Long haul leisure travel is the preserve of the very rich Western countries at the moment. But boy is that going to change as super jumbos and deregulation drive down prices and Westernisation provides both the money and the cultural influences to make people from India holiday in Florida or people in Brazil take a week in London.

Every airport in europe is festooned with cranes and bulldozers. A lot of pilots who entered the profession in the last boom - the 1970's package holiday - are now in their 50's.

This is a growth industry and make no mistake about it.

However. Spending the next 2 years servicing a massive debt whilst eeking out a few single engine hours for badger all money is going to be pretty damn miserable. I feel for all the people in that position I really do.


* * * * * * * *



And do you know what Jonty? I was pretty much right.

2003 and 2004 were pants for Wannabes. By 2005 things were ticking along nicely and 2006/7 were boom years. I've a long history here of commenting on the industry and the impact events in it will have on Wannabes.

I may err on the side of blackness A LITTLE but then that's because there is a whole industry out there arguing things are always sunny plus Wannabes have a natural enthusiasm to get on with their training and new career dream.

Just as in 2002 and 2003 if you could sit out 2008 & 2009 without watching your ratings lapse and your loan charges mount then that would be A Good Thing. I was trying to warn about this crisis from August last year but until its on the nine o' clock news people don't really believe you and won't listen anyway.


WWW

Did you see the article in Flight recently saying that market analysts are deeply worried about the unrealistic expansion going on in the middle east at the moment, and making predictions of mass airframe order cancellations as this sinks in? Something to do with the Middle Eastern airlines double counting their pax forecasts.

Just a thought.