As someone who started training just before 9/11, I have read this thread with interest. I would echo the advice that this is a risky time to commit to integrated training, even assuming that finance is still available. And it's not just about money; people often overlook the fact that an integrated course ties you to a fixed schedule - you will be finishing in xx months, whatever the state of the job market. Just ask a good friend of mine who signed on the dotted line at Jerez (BAe Systems as it was then) in August 2001 . . .

If I learned anything from watching the bottom fall out of the market post 9/11, it is that modular training gives one much - much - greater flexibility. There is the option to work while flying part-time, paying for your training as you go, and at any time you can accelerate or delay your schedule according to market conditions. My only full-time training was the CPL/IR, which meant I had a licence in my hand just four months after leaving my day job. Last year I was willing to bet that the market would hold for that long, and the gamble paid off - I was very fortunate to get an airline job within 3 months of finishing training.

Would I take that same risk now? Probably not.
Would I commit to an integrated course now and bet that there will be lots of jobs for newbies in 18 months time? Definitely not.
Would I be trying to raise £70k (no doubt with someone's house as security) in the current economic climate? I'd need my head examined.

Having been around Pprune almost as long as WWW I'd agree that he tends to be more pessimistic than most, but I think his advice is pretty good here.

Thanks for that G SXTY - people's personal histories always make compelling reading.

Whilst my analysis for the economic conditions ahead is very gloomy I've never said anywhere on this thread that people should abandon any thoughts of training, give up and desert their dreams. Never have a I said that.



We certainly have windshear ahead, brief and plan accordingly.



WWW

Abbreviated summary.

1987. Start learning to fly in Australia part time. Industry is booming. Get talked into going commercial.

1988. Finish PPL. Start all the CPL exams.

1989. Start IR. The worst industrial disaster hit Australia. Known as the "pilots dispute". Only the international pilots were flying, aka Qantas. The domestic flying? Stopped.

1990-91. Recession hits Australia. It already had been around the world since 1989 or so. Get CPL (1991). Keep my full time job and wait.

1992. Do instructor rating part time.

1993. Got part time instructing job as well as keeping safe full time job. Do ATPLs part time. Economy is picking up.

1994. Leave job and home, head off to the Kimberley to get a job. Finally got a full time job flying a Cessna mid year.

1995. Head back to Sydney and finish ATPL theory. yay.

1996. Change jobs. Get twin hours. Shift to another part of the Kimberley.

1997. Joined PPRuNe.

1998. Crashed and burned first type rating. Fortunately networking worked and managed to land another job in Cairns. FO on turboprops.

2000. Shifted to Sydney for another (bigger) turboprop (FO) job. That didn't go well either.

early 2001. Shift to the UK. Airlines hiring. However, signs were there in the US, it wasn't going well. Doing ATPL JAA exams full time.

Had 5,100 hours with at least 1,000 hours on turboprops.

Sept 11, 2001.

2002. Decide to stay in the UK, with Ansett group collapsing in Australia, there was absolutely no chance getting a job.
Get ATPL (finally). Take any job I could. Night Ops assistant with "Streamline"

2003. Fly a Shorts 330/360 on night freight. That was the best I could get at the time.

Dec 2004. Finally get into NJE.
Economy finally accelerating.

2005. Naturally, after starting with NJE, get offers from other companies.

2007. Command. Sub Prime grumblings in the US get louder.

2008. Possible fleet change coming up.
Economy is appearing to slow down again. Make sure my seniority is safe.

I've watched this thread for a while with interest and wonder why so many think one's approach to training has so much to do with the economy. Let me explain that a bit.

The logic seems to be that the economy is worsening, so there will be fewer jobs, so wannabes should wait until it is better to increase the chance that they'll get one. It's not bad reasoning, but there is a flaw in this logic when in a good job market. Even in a booming market if there is only a 10% chance that one won't get a job easily, the wise wannabe will develop a plan to get him through even if he's in that 10%.

I do think it's wise to try to time the market well and this is clearly a volatile and uncertain time. Here are the guidelines I would suggest should be used regardless of whether it's a boom or a bust economy:

1. Use as little debt as possible
2. Raise as much of the money needed upfront as humanly possible so you can focus on continuity of training to avoid fading skills. One sensible exception would be if you are modular and take a break before the IR and MCC to wait for an economic upturn.
3. Make sure you can meet all financial obligations and future contingencies (funding an SSTR or FI rating for example) based on what you are capable of earning today.
4. Contingency budget planning ideally should cover a) living expenses, b) loan repayments, c) rating renewals, d) 50 hours flying per year for currency and e) enough to make the payment on an additional loan for an SSTR.

If you can't fund an SSTR or you or unwilling to because of principles, then the other contingency items become even more important because your wait might be even longer.

It goes without saying that c and d are taken care of if you become an FI, but doing so adds the contingency requirement of funding the FI course. FIs are less likely in the early years to be able to afford a, b and e though, so the admonition of using less debt is more important if FI is your contingency plan from the outset.

The most obvious way to reduce the debt load is to reduce the total cost by going modular. There is a hidden saving here for those with an FI contingency. Modular fATPL training almost always ends the wannabe up with 250 hours or more. Integrated fATPL courses often end the wannabe up with about 220-230 hours, so they need to fund hour building to 250 hours before they can start an FI course.

There is a flaw in using an FI rating as a contingency in a bust economy though in that there might be plenty of recently redundant airline pilots beating a path to the FTOs to instruct, while those very FTOs experience a drop off in business.

In summary, investing in flight training is always risky and the risk management techniques to be used have very little to do with the state of the economy. The state of the economy should therefore primarily only inform when you start or if going modular, when you finish. Poor contingency planning in boom times probably accounts for at least half of the whinging posts on Pprune from unemployed shiny new fATPL holders.

As one of the wannbies from that time I can remember the debates going on.

In fact alot off the vocal ones for mod in them days are to my knowledge all sitting in the LHS earning 40k plus on turboprops or LHS on regional jets or the likes of Luke have moved on from LHS to RHS wide bodies. With 2+ type ratings under their belts.

In fact quiet few of the posters from that time are line training captains and one is a TRE that I know about.

I say that but one of them can still be found in MAN working as a dispatcher. His big break was scuppered by another ppruner who he called a cock and got into a willy waving competion with. He proberly doesn't even know his CV was binned.

In my experence WWW does talk sense about this stuff. There have been alot of wannabies who have appeared some with professional qualifications in finance, told him that he is talking pish and have quite well written justifications why he is talking pish. But you see aviation is a law until its self some might call it insider dealing but you can't have a clue whats going on until you have lived with it for a bit and realised how things work.

Why WWW hasn't got fed up giving his opinion I don't know. Every 6 months a new batch of wannabies turn up who think they know better because some marketing deptment have sold them hook line and sinker. And the trend for everyone to dismiss the other forms of aviation apart from line flying a Jet is causing major problems in the industry. There are alot of jobs out there that are just not suited to the Oxford/Cabair product. Employers won't touch them with a barge pole. I fact in the last 3 years I havn't flown with a single Intergrated trained pilot to my knowledge.

Just to note intergrated pilots don't need the 200 hours to start the fi course and they graduate with as little as 170 hours. In a broad sweeping statement they generally don't make very good FI's as they don't know the system and there heart isn't in it; also they are used to being bottle fed all the time with very little PIC real unsupervised time. This is a broad statement which can be proved untrue by some exceptionally good Instructors who did go through the intergrated system but they are the exceptions. In fact they are the sort of people who would have floated to the top however they did thier training.

Oil prices now $115 a barrel, watch this space guys..............

...and Euro at 1.6 bucks.

Didn't Qantas start Jetstar in 2003 while you were flying the ugliest aircraft in the history of aviation (including the age of the Ornithopters).

Wouldn't that been a better solution?

On a wing and a prayer
Published: April 17 2008 14:38 | Last updated: April 17 2008 18:06

When you have tried pulling every lever to hand but your plane is still losing altitude, the only thing left to do is bail out. This should have been a banner week for airline stocks. Delta and Northwest finally agreed to merge. That paves the way for further consolidation.

Investors, many of whom have called for any sort of corporate action to catalyse a rally, are unmoved – the sector is down 4 per cent this week. It is telling that, having touted $1bn of annual synergies, Northwest and Delta have since seen their combined market value decline by roughly the same amount. The need to keep politicians and labour onside means airlines must focus on revenue synergies, rather than cost savings. Top line gains might well transpire, but they are far off and run a high risk of being competed away.

With mergers no longer looking like a silver bullet, the fundamental problems facing the sector loom larger. As quarterly results from AMR – American Airlines’ parent – Continental, and Southwest show, this industry is selling its product too cheaply to offset high fuel prices. Only Southwest managed to turn a profit, mainly because of smart hedges on fuel costs.

Unit revenues for the major airlines are growing at mid-single digits in percentage terms. But they need growth rates at double that level to offset the high cost of fuel, according to CreditSights. With seats already very full – and regulators capping flights at busy airports such as JFK – that means raising prices. The airlines are doing this, but cautiously. Charging more in what could be an economic downturn is a bold experiment. Demand has remained robust so far, but then passengers’ appetite typically cracks only after a couple of recessionary quarters have passed.

Unlike the downturn after 2001, the industry has a bigger cash cushion. In an ideal world, that would be used to address other needs, such as upgrading tired fleets. Instead, the airlines will use it to hunker down and survive a rough ride – not exactly the most enticing of investment propositions.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008

well i hope staying low at uni will get me through the turbulent economic times ahead :uhoh:

N.A, A better solution? To what? I'd already left Australia and had converted my license. To then return to Australia and buy a type rating wasn't a solution. Esp since I had no money left and wasn't going into debt for a job.
I now earn a lot more money than the Jetstar pilots.

QF had already experimented with Australia Airlines operating 767s to Japan etc. This hasn't worked as well as they wanted. Jetstar Asia isn't a roaring success either. Jetstar (Aus) isn't working as well as they (QF) wanted on the Japanese routes as the Japanese don't want to use a loco to Australia. They perceive locos to be inferior. I can assure you that if I booked a ticket thinking it was going to be operated by QF and it was operated by Jetstar I would not be impressed one bit.

Either way, what Qantas does is their own business. However, they do seem to be intent on driving Qantaslink to the wall by refusing to acknowledge that their pilots want a better life. Their (QFs) opposition has responded by offering the QFlink crews the lifestyle and remuneration they want and deserve for the work being done.

It is all very simple. Demand is rising and supply seems to be stagnant.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...c&refer=energy

"There is only 85 million barrels of oil globally in the market coming a day and I don't think you can increase that 85 million,'' Pickens said.

This maybe of interest.

NYTimes.com: For Pilots, Dreams Run Into Reality.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/bu...a1&oref=slogin

Since 911 the airline industry in America has been in a fighting retreat which now, because of an economy built on debt and unforeseen oil prices, has turned into an all-out rout.

It's one thing to sacrifice and struggle for a few years to attain employment with a major carrier, something else however to sacrifice but never see light at the end of the tunnel. ‏I don't recall there being less opportunity for a viable aviation career than at present.

Always wanted to be a pilot. Check
32 years old. Check
Has a son. Check
Been saving from his military salary for the last year. Check
Will probably take him 10 years to get back to the same salary. Check
Wife thinks he's nuts. Check
Navy Lieutenant. Check

Christ. The above article is a little bit too close for comfort!! Thank goodness I am only on a career break to try and make the dream a reality!!

Anyway back to the revision, consolidation course starts next week and I just did an Air Law mock. Creamed 68%. Bolloc%s. Hmmmm maybe I should re-train as a plumber and buy a Pitts with the money I've saved.....

I'd like to bring some political background to this story because it is to me the sole essence of the actual recession with people high in the food chain using the media to fuel rumours... which, I say again is all this recession is really about.

Don't worry people, the democrats are winning end of the year and the war will be over... 1100 billion bucks went literally "lost" in Defense last year, and the feds are blaiming outdated computer systems for vanished money...
The people presiding now are stacking as much money as they can buying stocks at bottom prices, etc. using this money.

Just read about the JFKs and 9/11 conspiracy and you'll know what I'm talking about.

and this article: http://nl.m24.be/nieuws/buitenland/P...46368-1621.art

It's in Dutch but since CNN is very unlikely to be allowed to post such articles by Washington,...

So what's 1100 billion worth?
4000 A380's or 30000 A320's at list price? I'm sure Airbus will give you a quantity discount for such an order... or you could buy EADS altogether and use the spare change to buy all the airlines in the world.

Half of the US taxpayer's money goes to Defense funding.

Let's all together hope for a better future in the economy and in the politics that drives it.

Nich-av,

It seems you may be onto something there. Maybe some of us can use the info you have provided to make a killing in the markets. I'd love to buy a NetJets share; I'm sick of waiting in BAA's long security queues. There are probably many other readers who would love to fund their flight training with a few hot tips. Where could I put £100K to quickly turn it into £200K? If I can turn it over a few times in quick succession, I should have enough for a Citation Bravo share in a year or so and the guys in Ferrovial can kiss my rosy red goodbye one last time.

Nich - Av, if you want to gain some insight into the world and its present economic issues might I suggest avoiding the more conspiracy based areas of the Net and instead try googling Money As Debt. Within an hour you will probably have passed beyond the looking glass and gone far down the rabbit hole...


ALL we are really talking about in relation to UK and EU and US airlines is a slowing down of consumer spending.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...&feed=business


Its as mainstream as being in the guardian:

UK consumers face 'rapid and painful' downturn


This is going to be a rapid, painful adjustment and it will be a rough ride for a substantial proportion of the population. We are facing a massive sea change in the balance of the economy,' he said.


You look at the airline business. You see its wafer thing margins. You note it rapid decade of expansion.

You plan accordingly.


WWW

Interesting thread on "terms and endearment" saying Thomsonfly binning 10 aircraft for this season which could be well over 100 trained and experienced crew back on the market.... also EOS scrabbling around to find another £50mn to avoid a "run on the airline" as passengers book elsewhere as they lose confidence that the group will be around in a few months time.

I find the concept of the US bailing us out an interesting one given the US is arguably already in recession and running a huge deficit.. .I would have thought there was a bigger risk of US politics becoming more protectionist given the issues the US economy (and airlines have at the moment).

As for closer to home RBS looking to raise £10bn to plug a hole in its balance sheet. Banks are still struggling to lend... .folks the evidence is building that a low cost, low risk approach to flight training has to be the way forward.

I am also curious by this idea that "private jets" are the way forward and will create thousands of pilot jobs.... if people can't afford to fly with BA they are hardly going to be hiring private jets? And with the credit crunch ongoing I imagine banks willingness to lend against such assets must be somewhat diminished as would companies willingness to buy them..... or am I missing something? :confused:

GSB,

Most of our owners aren't affected by this little glitch.... Also, if you owned a jet, you could sell it and buy a share or card. Once you've done flying in your own aircraft, you're very reluctant to go back to the airlines.

Also, Europeans are viewing the bizjet not as a luxury item, but as an important business tool. 2 hours versus 10 min to get on your aircraft. Your meeting runs late, now instead of stopping the meeting OR flying home the next day, you make a call and your aircraft waits for you.

Will the bizjet market create thousands of jobs? No idea. Will it continue to grow. Yes, maybe a bit slower than in the last couple of years but it's still expanding.

Thanks Redsnail

Just our of interest how many of your "customers" would you guess are involved/make their money in the world of finance (e.g. banks, hedge funds, insurance companies etc etc)?

Thanks for deleting that WWW, on second thoughts I think it was too straight indeed. But let's be careful with investments right now :ok:

GSB,

Our owners aren't customers. There's a few that do make their money in the areas that you describe, but there are many that make their money from other sources. Also, many of our owners are from Europe so they (at the moment) appear to be less affected by the current events affecting the Pound and the Dollar. :ok:

I would guess many here would be very interested to hear if you see/feel any fall off in demand over the next few months from your clients. Please keep us informed as it is very valuable information for wanabees :ok:

The coming crisis will affect all sectors of aviation. I expect fractional jet business to be the least affected. The margins are meaty, the USP is strong and the customers on the whole are sold on the product and money ain't a problem, more a concept.


I'm going to go out on a limb here and ask you all (Wannabes) to read something.

Its by Paul Krugman and its 5 months out of date at this point but its STILL the best summary of the present economic problem that I've read in a digestible 1,000 words:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/14/op...in&oref=slogin

It was in the New York Times. Because the UK is a little (9 months) behind the US I think its an excellent summary of where we are now in the UK. I appreciate we have a wider audience - my apologies to them for being parochial.

As a Wannabe you NEED to grasp that this time there will be a recession and that a recession will hurt the massively expanded industry of commercial aviation very hard. Many of you aspire to a job such as mine as a Captain with a large UK airline. I don't blame you - I aspired to it like hell - and love it to bits.

But In No Small Part it is dependent on the spending of people in the economy who will be - frankly - wiped out in the 'economic turbulence' of 2008 - 2009..

Hang back from betting the farm. That's all I am saying.


WWW

That article does ring a few bells regarding the current situation. Don't know what it's like on the mainland, but driving around in N.Ireland recently I haven't seen a single "sold" sign on any houses. Loads of "for sale" signs though.

Still amazes me to meet young chappies at my local flying club who are off to start integrated courses in the next few months.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv...n_page_id=1770

Holiday bookings down already.
I doubt business aviation will escape scott free i imagine a large amount of private jet clients are city boys. dont think you'll be taking a citation if your firm has just lost 2billion $.

so many of my friends are worried about their jobs at the momment , especially the guys at citi bank. i think its something like 20% of the UK GDP comes from the city.

I think a lot of the european holidays are suffering because of the pound-euro exchange. I've recently returned from the canaries and it was very, very quiet.

This guy doesn't mince his words:


TOULOUSE, France, April 23 (Reuters) - Oil prices well above $100 a barrel will drive most of Europe's low-cost airlines out of business, the head of EasyJet's French subsidiary said on Wednesday.

The stark warning of a cull of low-cost airlines came as the British budget airline's shares fell more than 4 percent after another spike higher in oil prices towards $120 a barrel.

"There are currently about 50 low-cost carriers on the European market -- that's absurd," Francois Bacchetta, managing director of EasyJet France, told a news conference.

In a few years' time there will be no more than about three or four of us left in Europe," he said.

He was speaking at a briefing about a new EasyJet service between Toulouse and Lyon.

Traditional network carriers like Air France KLM have slapped extra fuel surcharges on ticket prices in recent months to help compensate for soaring crude oil prices.

"If we ourselves passed on these increases completely we would have to raise ticket prices by 10 percent in one go and our payload factor (the proportion of seats sold) would fall from 85 percent to 60 percent. Our whole low-cost business model would be thrown into question," Bacchetta said.

"The most competitive companies like Ryanair or ourselves will survive, along with one in Germany and perhaps one more in Europe. The others will die or merge as cripples. This phenomenon will even touch so-called normal carriers."

EasyJet issued a profit warning last month, citing higher fuel costs.


http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...32471920080423



WWW

WWW
 

You don't let up on your doom & gloom trip do you!

What is becoming clear is that the economic situation will result in a downturn in seats sold however it is likely to be the weekend break that the British public drops not the two week family hoiliday.

This is why the likes of Ryanair and Easyjet are panicking, the waffer thin margins they run on are likely to be erroded very quickly, the more traditional tour operators who sell the package hoildays are likely to be less hard hit as the British would rather sell there granny than miss out on the annual two weeks in the sun.

I was rather hoping that this thread was slipping off the radar as it seems to be the depositry for all the bad news can be found, however the back pages of Flight seem to be crammed with jobs a fact the at WWW seems to not have taken into account............... but good news seems not to have the same impact.

This thread does cover the most important Wannabe issue today - the recession and it impact on airline hiring.


There are no more than 500 jobs in the back of Flight. Any one of the top ten UK airlines going under would release that number of qualified, experienced and immediately available.

Do you refuse to see that the large US carriers are once again in dire trouble and facing Ch11? Does that not point to you the way Europe will be by next year?

Today you have the UK biggest homebuilder Persimmon suspending building any houses.. You have mortgage lending for March 08 down 46% on March 07. Last year the good old British consumer 'released' around £14billion from their residential property.

Every man Jack of them then spent that money on something. For a good many it was cars and holidays and 52 inch goggle boxes. ALL that money, all that £14billion just isn't going to happen this year. As consumer spending no accounts for over 60% of the UK economy it doesn't take a genius to spot the recession in the room.

Normally the goverment would now ramp up state spending, build a few motorways, airports, replace the power generation system etc. Unfortunately the government is almost as badly in debt as the consumer and thus we have the teachers on strike as a taster for a winter of discontent. Eggs, Milk, Bread etc all up by 40%+ and you in the State sector only allowed a 1.9% pay rise..

At first they said the boom would continue, then that a slowdown was possible, then happening and now they say that a recession can be avoided. It can't.

Wannabes taking on huge debt in the hope of hard to get jobs in an industry cruelly exposed to recessionary contraction NEED to be aware and to have considered the risk properly. I merely point out some of the evidence as it occurs - which is daily. People will do what they want and there is no slow down in the application rate at Kiddlington or Bedford (though I suspect the Euro must be hurting FTE).

WWW

A and C , the article was about the fact that if easyjet would increase fares with 10% because of higher fuel costs, the loadfactor would drop from 85 to 60 percent. Not a word about the economy.

The same seem to apply in the US, all the bankruptcies and capacity reductions are not caused by the economic downturn:

"Demand for travel typically falls after a recession has started. To date, airlines have not seen a significant decline in demand."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/bu...ss&oref=slogin


The difference between a downturn imposed by energy prices instead of economic weakness is in my view the fact that it is for the long term without a solution in sight.

Okay, now it's time for good news :)

The sky is falling on us ! Global Warming , Food Crisis, lifes never been worse ever. Somebody help us all......

Get a grip guys !

I blame the Daily Mail.....For everything

Oil price is one thing, £-$ exchange rate is another altogether.

No-one ever points out that in the time that the oil price has gone up 40-50%, the US$ has lost about 40+% in value.

It wasn't so long ago that oil cost $70 per barrel and the £ got you $1.40. However, at $2 per £, a fair chunk of the oil price rise has actually been paid for us by the Americans! In fact, the £ has been worth $2 for a lot longer than the oil price has been high, so we Europeans have had a decent time of it for a while - it's just catching up with us now.

I think that a lot of talk of doom and gloom is a self-fulfilling prophesy - if the suits in the city talk long enough about there being a downturn then they will make it happen. The world financial markets run on rumour and optimism/pessimism - facts rarely enter the equation.

As for training, the FTO at which I work has never been more busy - we are actually at the point of turning customers away.

except that airlines buy fuel in USD!!

Exactly my point. European airlines buy their fuel with US dollars that have in turn been bought with high value Sterling/Euros and so get a good exchange rate! The weak dollar HELPS keep the fuel cost down, and although there has been some increase in real costs, a lot of it is spin.

The fact that the dollar has been weak for a long time now (most of GWB's term as president!) means that the European airlines have been enjoying cheap fuel for a long time.

Yes true... but it is only one side of the story. Airlines such as BA loose out when converting US passengers paying in dollars back into sterling. The same goes for the likes of easyJet with the european passengers.

"I blame the Daily Mail.....For everything"..... that is possibly the most sensible thing ever posted on Pprune....:ok:
The oil price has gone from $10 to $120 in 7-8 years.... that must be some currency move :O

UK press starting to pick up on current problems in US aviation industry....

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3810477.ece

:uhoh:

What the papers say
 

As we all know the standard of reporting in the papers on aviation matters is appauling so why should the standard of reporting on financial issues be any different ?
Time to get some opinion from another sorce?............ I think so!!

Last night my wife attended a meeting with the local MP, the guy had untill recently a shadow finance remit and so has worked on these issues for some time.
In his opinion the total financal crash that some in these forums are predicting won't happen. He said that the economic conditions are far better than in the late 70's and so comparison with that recession was not valid.

The meeting was remarkably free from party politics with his general opinion being a bit of a dip in the economy followed by an upturn quite soon.

This is still only the opinion of one MP but due to he recent work in the field would tend to trust it rather more than the opinions of the Daily Mail or the proffits of doom & gloom on this forum.

The Times report was a sensible and balanced report and was a fair representation of the situation today.

The fact is that for the general population inflation is running at a far higher level that the official statistics show.

For those on a fixed income the problems are severe; food and fuel costs take a higher proportion of income now than ever and that reduces the amount to sopend elsewhere.

Fixed income people tend to be pensioners and it has been the grey pound which has fueled the growth in travel especially for the low cost carriers.

Tie that in with the fall in value of the £ against the € where the majority of travellers have been going and the money available is even less.

The worst hit will have it bad but for the airline businesses they will need to get ready for a difficult time and I suspect already have their layoff plans ready and waiting.