If for argument sake we are heavily affected by the recession, and it certainly looks plausible – what is the consensus of opinion regarding time frame.

My estimations would be 3 years at worst ,and 1 year at best. Although, I am no economist. :{:{

I bet that until fuel prices drop we will get deeper in. Finance rules most of the world after oil. We have no chance of escaping just look at the tax situation as well. The gravy train is still running but people and institutions are leaping aside to try and cover their backsides. When the current round of mortgage applications is sorted we will not all be worse off but with the oil prices everything is affected whether we like it or not. With low inflation and still some growth it is technically only a slow down but that can be bad enough. 3 US airlines failed in recent weeks, plus Alitalia perhaps BA? Virgin merger what next? Take out a £60k loan to fly? NO not likely!!!

Recession ?
 

IMHO, the recession could be 18-24 months at best. At worst try 36months. Any Irish (fellow) wannabee's should be aware that the ESRI released figures this morning to 'confirm' that we are now in a full blown recession..

Celtic Tiger = Celtic Kitty :{

Who will the Russians have as their V.B.F.'s on the slopes from now on in :sad:.........................................

http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0404/economy.html

Sensationalism Copy and Paste Press Alert...!!!!

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3662046.ece

Even those successful LCC's could be hit too! Our boss, seems to think it's the stag parties in Amsterdam, those weekends in Nice and Venice that will go first...and that's LCC market territory...

Doom...Gloom...No one is safe...Doom...Gloom...:ok:;):p

And now even Legacy Carriers...
 

Sort of Thread Creep but related to the UK economy and aviation industry:
A Thread starting in R&N with regards to a potential merger between Virgin and BMI...

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/02042008/323...rove-deal.html

Even these sort of carriers feel the need to consolidate...markets such as UK/European scheduled and Long Haul...

As a UK pilot community the choice of employment is reducing year by year...significant for aspiring regional pilots and Wannabes...

Timing could be quite literally everything, once the dust settles on TCX/MYT and FCA/TOM mergers in terms of fleet capacity/buisness stratergy in approx 2 to 3 years time, the next cue ball arrives...

Doom...Gloom...Where Will It End...Doom...Gloom...

I've gotta stop drinking at lunchtime!

What on earth makes you think BA will fail!? Do people really think the terminal 5 fiasco will hit them that hard? I for one very much doubt it will. Maybe for the next month or so it may creep into people's minds but after that people won't even remember. There are many more airlines closer to the wall then BA.

No I do not think it will fail in reality but what other sort of company given the monopoly it had for so long could continue given its recent history? Even if only some of the things discussed on here had a grain of truth then they would be ripe for failure, takover or some other way made to change their ways. Not that any other company may be any better - the airline business is a low margin high risk entreprise constantly being undercut. Only above average service and quality will keep it where it has come to be accustomed to reside. T5 will recover of course but if people voted with their brains and feet would they continue to pay for a substandard service that has been a foreseeable situation and not properly dealt with. Big bang changeovers are the highest risk are they not?

US recession confirmed - here comes the job losses:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...nnonfarm10.xml

US job losses put recession in focus


The number of Americans losing their jobs hit a five-year high last month in a further sign that the US economy is firmly in recession mode.

New data from the US Labor Department shows 80,000 people lost their jobs in March - the third straight monthly drop and the biggest decline in five years.

The so-called "non-farm payroll" data would have been worse - a loss of around 100,000 - had it not been for a rise in government jobs.

In addition, jobs figures for both January and February were revised downwards, recalculated to a total of 152,000 losses from a previous estimate of 85,000.


US job losses just keep on coming and keep on being revised upwards. I strongly suspect this month will be revised up as well in the future.

People miss-remember the last recession. They attribute the house price crash as being a result of people losing their jobs with high interest rates. In fact it was the crash in house prices that caused the recession and high debt repayments were as a result of broader economic policy. Just as it will be this time.

If you want to see the future then just watch the USA. Whatever happens there will happen here. But as our house prices to disposable income is more highly stretched than here and as the Financial sector is an even bigger part of the economy over here it will be worse here than the States.

And that's pretty bad.

It is doom and gloom. It is real. It does affect Wannabes. I make no apologies for talking about it and will continue to do so.

Now go and enjoy this lovely sunny Friday afternoon - I am. :)


WWW

The last housing crash, and iam old enough to remember also had a lot to with the removal of joint income tax relief, which suddenly made mortgages a lot less affordable..

Throw into the mix the fiasco with the Exchange Rate mechanism, and you have a few extra factors to contend with.. such as interest rates at 15%....

Just a thought.

That you fail to see the relationship between house prices, the economy and the airline industries recruitment requirements is a perfect illustration as to the ignorance of many Wannabes. All are strongly linked.

A recession is now happening in the USA. One is booked to arrive here in 2008. Make your training and funding plans accordingly. Thats all you can do.

Cheers

WWW

hey WWW an interesting thread on Airliners.net that illustrates how right you are: Will WN enter bankruptcy?

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/3917663/

To become or not to become a pilot, that is the question.

Sorry but I'm fed up. I expected a warmer information exchange on this website, in reality it seems that it's not worth it.
Moderators telling prospective students that the apocalypse is nearing, students disrespecting me while I try to help them.

To those who are joining us this summer: see you there :ok:

You want a warm exchange of information? Well here it is and its red hot. Did you want a back slapping sympathy club? If you are here to discuss aviation then that's lovely but a big element of aviation is money - because that and that alone make aeroplanes fly - and money comes soley from the economy and the economy here in the UK and there in portugal is in deep deep trouble (but not as deep as Spain).

Trillions of dollar losses are evidenced here. Despite the ECB literally pouring money onto their heads the Euribor rate is at high not seen since Christmas. There is only one reason for this mass banking panic - they KNOW that they are bust and that things will only get worse..

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssF......03?rpc=401&

The US banks are INCREASING their desperate borrowing from the Fed. They are deep in a dark hole and digging like crazy.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/508fcb8e-0...nclick_check=1


House prices are opinion. The debt is real.


WWW

Received this morning in my inbox, not once received anything like this. (I subscribe to Aviation Job Search to see who is and who isnt)

Storm Aviation Limited

A320 TYPE RATING COURSE STARTS 14TH APRIL 2008,ONE PLACE LEFT, REDUCED PRICE! placed on: 04/04/2008
LONDON

Details:

Storm Aviation has just one place left on our A320 Type rating course starting the 14th April in London.

This is a unique opportunity for any pilots looking to gain an A320 type rating and further their aviation career.

Due to last minute availability of this space we are pleased to offer this course at a vastly reduced price- Please enquire further for details.

You would just be delighted if you had paid full price for said course wouldnt you.

Quite telling in my eyes....:hmm:

That's a very interesting anecdotal G-SPOT. For some months now I have been anticipating 'offers' from FTO's and price adjustments as the number flowing through the doors drops in response to the withdrawal of loans and the inability to MEW (Mortgage Equity Release - eating your house).

Up to today I have seen nothing much. This could be the start of it.

Good news for Wannabes - cheaper training.

Hurrah.


WWW

The last housing crash, and iam old enough to remember also had a lot to with the removal of joint income tax relief, which suddenly made mortgages a lot less affordable..

Throw into the mix the fiasco with the Exchange Rate mechanism, and you have a few extra factors to contend with.. such as interest rates at 15%....

Just a thought.

RB11 - The removal of the married allowance on housing costs was announced 3 months before it came into effect. During those 3 months it did spurn an increase in the number of properties offered for sale to the market. The day the tax change came into effect was the day any such downward pressure on prices was removed. They went on to crash for 3 years by around 40% in real terms.

This time the Vested Interests in the property market will probably portray HIPS as being responsible for the current crash. Which will be nonsense. Its just prices are too high. Just like last time. Really quite simple.

WWW

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/7330311.stm

Nuclear Fusion (Nuclear Reactors as interim solution) = Unlimted Hydrogen = Unlimted Fuel = Cheap Flying!!

:ok:

Chris

WWW,

I'm probably wrong on this and feel free to correct me if I am, but I would have thought that the increased cost of fuel would have a negative effect on the cost of training which would mean that the training providers would be unable to lower their training costs, regardless of the impact of availability of loans?

Yahweh

The larger schools have probably hedged their fuel, but even if they haven't I doubt that any subsequent increase is going to give wannabees a reality check.

If somebody is prepared to gamble 70k then another 20k for a 737 rating, then I doubt 10p per litre is going to make any difference.

I know I really ought to have got over sifting through the :mad: in marketing by now, but how on earth can Storm Aviation keep a straight face and describe their SSTR as a "unique opportunity" :confused:

Sorry to go off topic.

Housing Market
 

I know im not just the only one on this forum who is worried about the current housing market situation. I thought i'd bring this thread up and running as the housing market does affect alot of us embarking on our goal in becoming an airline pilot. Its not as though everyone has rich parents who can folk the lot out in cash and therefore, you'll find many of us invest in the property market.

I was wondering whether anyone would agree with me that its getting harder and harder building equity for securing loans for training?

Bairing that in mind, would anyone agree that in the very near future, the major top flying schools would need to lower the costs of their training courses in order to make them more financially realistic?

any opinions appreciated.

Hayder.