Thank you.

It is what it is, and you adjust...

These threads have been doing the rounds since the new year began and for those wanting a career as a pro pilot and cabable of reading through the doom and gloom speculation: Plan it very very carefully, the above quote say's it all, I would be cautious of throwing alot of money at an integrated course right now, consider the modular route, a "chunk" at a time. Be VERY aware of your position in the market place at all times i.e. Your job potential with <200 hours and a fATPL. Be aware of what the industry is doing, I was shocked during my CPL/IR when I met chaps who didn't know what a Turbo-Prop was or what a B737 looked like. This will help you to judge what the above quote is saying!

My company and the other large Charter operator in the UK (TCA) have both announced that any speculation of an economic downturn has not affected bookings for summer 2008; both are above forecast. Although my company has some major changes yet to come that may affect pilot numbers! Still a good time to be an experienced pilot, I would suspect CTC will continue to fill the gaps...

I trained modular throughout the aftermath of 9/11, finishing my exams in August 2001!!!! September 2001 changed everything, including having to take my shoes off before getting into my seat! I went back to work, did my CPL, went back to work, did my IR...got my first job on a turbo-prop 5 months after my IR test, never paid for a renewal because timing was everything! Now B757/B767...

I believe the Americans define a recession as two consecutive quarters of "negative growth". However, one can only really tell whether you are/were in one 6 months plus data processing time after the recession started, so as the wise, patient men say: Time will tell :)

However, it does not really help you to know what sold last year, you need to know what sells next year, if you are to be a good business man. In a downturn, airlines will still hire a number of pilots although a number smaller than in booming times and were I to start out again, I would not hesitate to sign up for CTC or another organisation with a proven track record.

In any respect, pilot training will always bear an element of risk in it and the risk is on the rise right now, but a dream is a dream and should be chased according to my life philosophy. Good luck :)

Only the Americans could come up with a contradicting definition "Negative Growth".

As said above, there will always be an inhereant amount of risk in borrowing and spending 50k upwards on flight training. I cant think of one single thing other than this that requires so much money with absolutely no gurantee's at the end.

But there will always be a reason why something can't be done and economies always bounce back so the long term will be fine. It may be rough for newbie's like myself for a while but nothing this good comes easy so as long as you plan to get yourself through the really **** times of no money, no job and lapsing ratings then you'll be fine.

I'm just about to start my training and have planned for a hard time ahead with little or no job prospects and little hope of any improvement on the situation for a few years. If I get a job in the mean time then great but I'm not banking on it. All doom and gloom? Well I probably sound bloody miserable but just being cautious with the whole thing but none of my fears come close to stopping me from cracking on with it.

Flying Squid :ok:

Hi,

Looking at econimic downturn maybe someone can give me advise.
I’m doing all my training on the continent paying for that in Euros, recent massive fall of GBP cost me a lot of money. :{

Are there any economists on the group ? Maybe somone has some sensible forecast for EUR/STG exchange ? :ugh:

Thank you !
LC

We are also affected by this as we accept GBP/EUR payments and pay our bills in USD.

The big problem is that the UK is panicked by the U.S. recession, but mainland Europe isn't. Transactions are happening as usually, real estate prices are stabilising but still increasing.

The EUR will certainly go over the 1.50 USD barrier soon when the US enters recession and start selling its currency for a more stable currency.

Bush doesn't give a sh*t about his government anymore as he's leaving office end of the year.
Obama or Hillary (we'll know soon ;-) ) will relaunch the economy by a politic of trust and by ending the war.

All I can tell you is that when the economy worsens in the US over the next few months, the UK economy will tend to worsen aswell, the GBP will probably drop even more against the EUR.

Exchange at least 10 000GBP on every occasion, that will earn you a very good rate. Don't go to exchange banks, go to your own bank.

Do not catch me wrong though, a recession in the UK does not mean it is going to widely affect air travel or travel in general.
Actually the airline that can earn the most money from a recession in the UK is FR... people will tend to go for cheap hotels and cheap airline tickets. Not a surprise Mol's talking about a "big dowturn", he just wants to give the recession a push forward.

Nichibei have you seen property prices in markets like Spain and Ireland... still increasing??.... which planet are you living on??

As for asking for FX advice on Pprune... I would suggest that would be a rather foolish thing to do... a lot of "armchair experts" on here... would be similar to going and asking the bloke down the pub what to do with you hard earned pennies!

JB - Spot On!

My UK IR 170A - September 10th 2001 :{

Went into Hedgehog Mode, got a proper job - instructed part time, learnt some very good jokes to tell in the cruise when I was PA'ing on my days off.

Things got better gardually - now P1 on a chunky bizjet

Forget integrated training, if you do not have a job within 6 months of graduating then modular/integrated does not matter.

All this 80k-100K bull needs to stop right now - go modular, speak to your boss explain that you may wish to have some unpaid leave in 2009, do it in chunks. Do the majority of the training in the US - cheeeeeeeap$ get FAA licenses as well, get as much license for your £££'s as possible.

Come back more rounded, more hours, more interesting to spend time with, more able to adapt to the Kingair Job you will probably get rather than programmed to the non existent airbus job you are longing after (and pissing off your kingair boss by telling him how much 737 FNPTII time you have). The days of living the 737 dream are slipping away, tell Oxford to shove it and paddle your own canoe and save yourself 50K.

Think less about the goal being getting the fATPL and consider the goal to be getting a job - any job, I've said it before but when the music stops make sure you have a seat!

best of luck - and to the accountant who borrowed the money and its too late to pay it back, - pay it back and go modular and keep your proper job. I know its dead easy to say that from FL410 but imagine one of your clients proposing to do what you are doing on a loan of 80k with a doubtful outcome - what would you advise?????

G-Spot,

Finally someone talking sense and getting it in a nutshell.
Get a seat, any seat and weather the storm. It's a dream job yes but way too many people living in a dream world. :ok:

All this doom and gloom from MOL yet ironically he advertised in flightglobal only yesterday desperate for FO's! Looking for 400 new starts this year according to Ryanair website. Doesnt look like a down turn to me.

Have you been on the spot for years or have you just "read it on the media"?

I can tell you for sure that this is not the case in France, Germany, Benelux and Italy.

As about FX, it is very simple, FX is unpredictable, not to economists, not to anyone, otherwise it wouldn't be going up and down all the time.
It's not like shares, those are predictable. No, there are too many factors in FX for a human being to handle and sort out on a human time scale.

If FX were predictable all Americans would have bought EUR currency 6 years ago and traded them for dollars now, a 70% investment.

Nichibei share price movements are "predictable" well you must be Warren Buffet then... I bow to your superior knowledge.... :ugh:

Yes I rely 100% on the press... I believe everything they tell me.... I am incapable of independent thought.... but despite all that I can still tell that you are no more reliable than picking up the Daily Mail so maybe I am not a complete lost cause ;)

(Oh if share prices are predictable clearly BA's share price halving in the past 12 months, Iberia share price halving, Ryanair's share price halving, Air France/KLM's share price more than halving.... outlook must be rosey for pilot recruitment because the management that run these companies won't care about that... oh but Easyjet is only down 40%... must mean the future is bright... the future is orange :E)

Boy….Talk about gloom and doom!!

What happened to the good old WWW of 2000? You know,..the instructor who posted positive contributions and helped us through what were VERY difficult times then, as he used his initiative, detemination and worked his way to EZY.

No, it’s not going to be easy for low hr pilots….It NEVER was!

£60 -£80k does not guarantee a job, never has done, never will!

As ever it’s those who show a little initiative and make it their business to at least appear employable that will win through in a recession (if it happens), or not.

With words of encouagement and avice from moderators like ‘ it is going to be really horrid being a wannabe’, And ‘The party is over. Those with £80k of debt, 200hrs and a lovely stack of CV's have my sympathy.’ Perhaps there is no hope and its time to give up, close the forum, and change it to 'Wannabe Economists’…..we seem to have enough of them!

BTW There are, and always will be jobs out there just don't expect them to land at your feet!

There are too many variables in economics and financial services to come to a simpe conclusion ... those that beat on about "doom and gloom" are pessimists, and those that ignore the indicators with rose tinted glasses are optimists.

For what it's worth, there may well be a downturn in the financial markets, but reading the impact on the aviation business is far too difficult. You know, it could even be beneficial (e.g. encouraging growth in low cost travel). The reliance on the US as the engine of global growth is somewhat alleviated with China and (to a lesser extent) India surging on. EU and UK markets are stable, interest rates are low (and likely to get lower), employment levels are high. Outrageous housing values are dropping (moderately, which they NEED to), but equity levels remain high - this points more to readjustment rather than recession to me. Perhaps we are all missing the point - it is inevitable that markets will cycle, but I would argue we are in a better position now more so than ever to manage it and ride it out. The real worry is inflation ... but even that's not out of hand ... yet!

Bear in mind, those that think it's bad - I remember the days of >10% unemployment, >10% interest rates, high inflation. But still the profession and business survived, we all did.

Too much negativity is a bad thing. It's always a gamble getting into the aviation game. But believe it or not, you can make your own good luck.

I find the world to have no shortage of people in it encouragin wannabes to spend vast sums of money on training. I have been responsible for encouraging many on just how to do so for many years. However, unlike most, I don't actually make my living out of this industry (not since 2000). This allows me the luxury of being the dissenting voice if I so choose.

I didn't imagine a house price crash in the US and recession. I'm not being tricked when I check www.propertysnake.co.uk and see real house in my street dropping in price in the UK. My eyes do not deceive me when I gaze upon abandoned building sites in Southern Spain nor read the horror stories unfolding in the Dublin housing market. My ears did not misshear Michael O Leary's unequivocal prediction of European recession.

The halving of most airlines and holiday companies share prices in the last year persuades me that the City and the Analysts believe profits are at high risk. My reading of the broader economic cycle suggests a recession 18yrs after the last one fits a pattern. My understanding of what a credit crunch means to an economy based on credit leads me to believe we have only seen the early tremours of a quake yet to hit.

For a Wannabe in the US/UK/Eurozone who aspires to an airline job in the near future all this leads to a very gloomy conclusion. I can't help that. What I can do is try just a little to make sure people making large life decisions do so at least with some balance of opinion in the process.

It only takes one of the household airlines to go under and you have hundreds of pilots out of work. That several years supply of Wannabes. So its perhaps most sensible NOT to put yourself in a position where you owe lots of money. As I have said before over many years going Integrated DOES make sense in certain conditions. The most important of which is a frantic hiring market with Chief Pilots on the phone to Integrated schools on a weekl basis as the business plan expands yet again.

I think I can say with a high degree of confidence that the frantic hiring market is gone. So a major condition in favour of high debt, high intensity, training has also gone.

Whether we are staring into the abyss of a full blown UK/US/Eurozone recession is a more contentious issue. I think we are. I'm more than happy to be proved wrong and hope I will be. So I'm all for reading posts by optimists.

Right, back to the pool, :D


WWW

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/com...cle3321789.ece

And as I pick up my copy of The Times by the pool I see Anatole is coming rapidly around to my view - and he's one of the most optimistic economic commentators around..

Britain needs a big interest rate cut today to counter the possible disasters ahead Anatole Kaletsky

The British economy is in big trouble. I say this as someone who has stuck his neck out since the mid-1990s in arguing that the British model was basically sound and..


Protect yourself - keep your debt low.


WWW

Dear moderator,

I hope that the schools that are paying the expensive advertisements on this website don't get to read you, I'm not sure about them being happy about what you're writing there.

MIKECR,

Don't be fooled; how many of these FOs do you thinks will be on permanent, full-time contracts?

sr

Nichibei

Just because he's a moderator doesn't mean he has a vested interest in this site, or the financial wellbeing of those companies who choose to advertise here. That's what makes pprune so useful, in particular the wannabes section. You get accurate and honest advice from professionals who know what they are talking about, for free. It's the only place I know that offers this.

He's giving a totally objective point of view - can you honestly say that you are being just as objective with yours?

In other news easyJet have updated their careers webpage informing applicants that there will be no more openings for Type Ratings until late 2008. In easyJet speak that most likely means this time next year. So, it's february and one of the biggest airlines and biggest recruiters of pilots' in recent years has finished hiring for the year. Make of it what you will.

...and be aware of potential reductions within the TUI Travel empire...reasearch more than ever is required before commencing training!

Refer to post #40 of this thread and the quote;I have no doubt that the experienced pilots will be fine, it's those with <200 hours, fATPL and nothing in the logbook but single pilot training that will struggle, I would hazzard a guess until 2010/11!

Speedstriction,

Im not being fooled. I was merely pointing out that Ryanair desperately require at least 450 new pilots this year to cope with their plans. The type of contract or who they are employed by is irellevant.