Since when did a listed company have 2 years to publish audited accounts??

Bit off topic but....

They have to be submitted to Companies house ASAP after Year End. But, unless you actually apply to Companies House (for which there is a charge) or you own over 5% then you won't see the detailed accounts published anywhere for 2 years after Year End as far as I know.

Interest rates were at 15 % when Lamont was Treasurer because inflation was spiralling out of control.

The reason they are not at 15% now is because the current Government would have us believe that inflation is under control. They have done this by systematically removing everything that happens to push inflation up. House prices, ooops better remove that, Oil prices, ooops better remove that. True inflation is probably running at around 20 % due to increasing energy, oil, food and peaked house prices. Unfortunately Joe Public has proved to be rather stupid over the last few years and borrowed excessively due to the perceived boom and easy credit. Current result, shed loads of debt, increasing food, oil, energy prices and mortage interest rates much higher then a few years ago. The possible interest rate cuts over the next few months are unlikely to be passed onto Joe Public's mortgage. We haven't even mentioned all the carbon offsetting bollox and the environmentalists who are campaigning that flying is evil. I think we can expect a very heavy landing in 2008.

Bugger really as I start my CPL in July and am studying my ATPLs at the mo. Oh well, ****e happens, nothing ventured nothing gained. Doubt has been ripping me apart for months now and I have finally made my mind up. Despite the backdrop. Mad? Possibly, don't care anymore, sometimes you just have to go with the gut feeling and see where the dice land. Fortunately I have been saving for 3 years and can do it all and remain debt free. Worse case sceanario = Qualified and unemployed but debt free.

:)

It is off topic so I won't labour the point but I think you will find a listed company has to get an annual report out with 3-6 months or so, certainly not 2 years.... I know of no listed company that takes more than 3-4 months to get the annual report out.

More importantly Chris I think you missed the whole point with your post... no one was saying Ryanair was in trouble... or gives a stuff about their depreciation policy... the issue is the outlook.... an unhedged fuel position.... falling passenger yields etc etc... if costs go up and revenues come down airlines tighten their belts and put expansion plans on hold... period. As the biggest recruiter of low houred pilots I admire your optimism... it will hold you in good stead if their are tough times ahead in 12-18 months when you come out of training.

MFWF - Good post!

Unfortunately for me whilst I haven't actually started training and won't do so for another 6 weeks, I am too far down the road with the bank to actually stop anything and to be honest I don't know that I would even if I could!

My gut feeling still says go for it. There's never a right time to spend this sort of money and they'll always be something thats happening in the financial world to worry me.

Like MFWF says, are we bloody mad? Possibly but nothing ventured nothing gained so crack on is my approach.

CS :ok:

Flying is cheaper than it has ever been.
There is an increase in emmigration from eastern european countries
Everyone still needs to travel.

Everything is going to be ok folks! Relax

Exactly. If Ryanair are looking at such a sharp downturn in profit over the next 1-2 years then imagine the impact on smaller airlines who don't have RYR's low cost base and cash reserves. Ryanair will most likely survive the worst of recessions, others may well not. It all points to experienced and jet/TP rated pilots "competing" with 200hr guys for the few airlines positions that would be on offer. It's only a possibility, but it is looking more and more likely.

I take the above point regarding people not caring about RYR's depn policy. You're right they don't. But investors do and I think you'll find they're the ones that drive the economy up or down and indeed the reason we are even having this discussion so that's why I brought it up. Look forget about depn for a minute, my intention was to convey that selling 5 aircraft doesn't mean that RYR are worried about the future as has been mentioned on PPRUNE earlier and has subsequently spilled over into this thread aswell.

We all have our opinions about what's going on but I don't think it's as bad as made out to be by some. You only have to watch the news and you would think the end of the world is coming! The economy bounces back, always has and always will. ******* yanks have knackered us in the end but the rediculous ex Chancellor has screwed us for a long time to come with spirraling debt, tax and interest rates. Not the place for politics but thank you very much to the current government for the situation that we are now in. Im sure that will annoy someone and but thats my opinion and I'll be shot down in the next 30 mins or so but hey ho.

CS :ok:

Many of you seem to associate the post-9/11 aviation crisis to the 9/11 recession while they don't have alot in common.

The post 9/11 aviation crisis was based on fear for further attacks, which led people to cancel their flights for security's sake.

Just because the media and the economists are talking about a recession, thatdoesn't mean we're going to start paying a bottle of water at 5 bucks a piece.
Typical panic reactions are:

:ugh:

We are at the edge of recessions and we're at the edge of the greatest pilot shortage in history.
Isn't this what we call a buffet boundary limit? ;-)

Just because Ryanair announces a lower than expected Q3 profit figure of a mere 35 million euro, people start putting their flight training on hold :ugh:...

In this recession, prices of everything will drop including those of fuel.
Some members on this forum have good reasons to make people believe that it will be hard to find a cockpit job in the future: such reasons could be to reduce competition for their own "hirability".

Now let me tell you one thing wannabe economists: In Holland they held a competition between dolphins and the best economy analysts of the country on 2007 investment prognoses.
Guess what: the dolphins' prognose would have earned investors 30% gains while the economic analysts' prognoses resulted in 10% losses.

http://www.nieuws.nl/492464

So don't let the media or analysts tell you what's going to happen.
Do some research on your own.

Are house prices really dropping?
Or are you believing that they are dropping?
Is a bottle of milk more expensive now?
Do take indexation into account ;-)

What if the media says that tomorrow the earth will disappear? Are you going to buy that?

Howe many times has it been said on this forum......
There is only a shortage of experienced pilots!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and if things keep going the way that the general opinion of this thread says it will, there will be plenty of them around.

It's all Dutch to me Guvnor.


On a more serious note. Wannabe Economist = Possible Realist.

Eyes wide open. It's better that way, or are you a strictly lights off kind of person? :}

Yes.
There is a big shortage of experienced pilots.
Do you know why?
The industry is expanding faster than the airlines can train F/O's with enough experience to become captains. Training a captain is not like training a new F/O, it takes more time and resources.

and YES, there is a shortage of new pilots as well. The only problem is that new pilots are misinformed and mislead by their FTO's and think they can get a job the day they graduate with 200 hours. That may very well be so in desperate environments like India and China right now, but is not the case in Europe and USA.
Don't dream, with 200 hours (130 single prop + 70 sim) you have to be really lucky and the airline really desperate to give you a job.
The average time required for ab-initio is 500 hours in Europe.
That's why many don't even get replies to their job applications and start thinking it's the industry... :rolleyes:

It's not like your FTO where you are about to contract a 90 000€ loan over 12 years is going to tell you that you'll need to spend more money flying an additional 300 hours on average after your training to be elligible for a F/O position.

(Side note: What do you think an FTO with a USA flying program charging 90 000€ is earning on every student?
10%? 20%?
No, I can assure you it's more than 50%, just do the math yourself and you will realise.
You say that the quality of the training is good? I hope it is, for the price you pay... It's not by luck that they get to add a 10 million dollar simulator every year....)


As I mentionned on the other page, over the next 5 years there is a need for 5000 new pilots in each of India and China already and similar but slightly lower numbers are expected for Europe, Middle East and USA, this, without taking account of the VLJ revolution.

All what matters is to have a captain and an F/O in a cockpit.
There are plenty of 3000+ hours on type experienced F/O's in the world waiting for a captain upgrade, and almost as many new pilots looking for their first job.

Do you own a flying school?

Edit: I think you do...
http://ncb-aviation.com/

Quel surprise....

Not often that I agree with Nichibie but I do think that he has a point.

What I do see happening is airline bosses stopping recruting as a panic reaction only to find themselfs with an even bigger pilot shortage and after a short time panic recruting taking place.

No doubt Nichibie's thinking is influenced by his flying school ownership however the requirment for pilots will continue to grow and he makes this point well.

Nichibei,

Hmmmmmmmm! I really admire your optimism and wouldn't it be nice for the newbies if what you're saying is true?

But, you're effectively saying and I agree that the FTO's just want to take a newbie's money and not inform them about the reality of the situation as well as making a huge profit into the bargain.

But if the website that was flagged up here as a training establishment is indeed your company, then I for one would have to say that your words are bordering on being extremely hypocritical. There are in my opinion too many FTO's (possibly like your self) who are fuelling this pilot shortage rumour for their own gain. Pulling the unsuspecting wannabe in, taking their holy grail pot of money and chucking them out the other end into a non existent market for a 200hr FATPL.

Not a nice way to do business I'm afraid.:=

Well the company's not mine so I don't really have personal interests, and I could have signed up as "student" to hide the fact that I'm a NCB employee, but I didn't.

If you don't believe me all you need to do is google "pilot shortage" and you'll realise what's happening. Sources range from the less reliable to the most reliable.

But there's a way to prove what I'm telling you:
In December the Portuguese senate wanted to vote the 65 retirement age extension, pilots went on strike.
In January the US senate voted about the same thing.

All I'm saying is that too many students are not realistic and let themselves get caught by the "big dream". What they forget to do is to analyse before they start and complain afterwards.
I highly criticise FTO's who do not inform their students appropriately.
But I also do criticise irresponsible students who blaim it to the market instead of admitting their mistakes and blaming their FTO.
How many students have had the courage to send a letter to their FTO telling them that they can't find a job?

There's a market of around 3000 to 4000 pilots over the next 5 years in Europe, but unfortunately only 10 to 20% of that market will be open to 200 hours pilots.
If I were an airline I wouldn't put a 200 hour + TR + line training pilot on the right seat of a 50 million $ 737. It's not only about the airplane but about the entire airline's reputation.

Nichibel,

Well done for clearing that up.

All good facts and finally the point you are trying to make is getting across. For Wannabee's, the best advice I think is to not get to wrapped up in the dream and to review everything, research everything and ask as many people in the know as is humanly possibly. Then if you're still really passionate about it Go For It!

Its a great career, I love going to work and still after a few years as a jet pilot, I still have to pinch myself. The bottom line is....
Follow your dream but be realistic Good Luck:ok:

India and china and all the rest will see lots of new pilot jobs I agree. That is of no use to most wannabes here. What we see today in new data is London house prices down 6.4% quarter on quarter and sales volumes down over a third - crash territory. The USA is IN recession.

You have MOL on TV telling you in plain language that he expects recession in 08/09. By this time next year it is going to be really horrid being a wannabe.

Sorry to say.

WWW

I'm not so sure.

It's in the nature of people to be ego-centric and to have short term memories and outlooks. Hence you get anecdotal evidence of global warming.

ie. -15 years ago it snowed in winter, now it doesn't.
- It's caused by chelsea tractors and set-top boxes

Meaningful measures of climate cover geological eras, yet we persist in extraoplating from minute, human-scale time periods.

Same with economics. We tend to think in the immediate and emphasise what's important to us. So a bit of talk and data produce the same sort of screaming reaction for which journalists are traduced when they write "jet seconds from disaster". Of course it depends on what you consider a recession to be - but given the rather bleak scenarios I've read in this thread, let's assume it's fairly nasty rather than a slowdown or a slight dip - to extrapolate a big recession from any of the data in this thread is as valid as making climate observations based on 15 years of watching the weather.

Recessions are not permanent. A slowing of growth (imho) is inevitable - perhaps underway right now - but recovery and improvement is also inevitable. Do you train to be a pilot now or when you have the recovery? I buy stock when it's low and sell high, so with training the goal is to position yourself for when you qualify.

So if MOL's prediction of a downturn in 08/09 is correct then starting your training late this year is the perfect time?! :hmm: