In defence of WWW
...the thin end thereof
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Join Date: Jun 1998
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In defence of WWW
For all those of you who two weeks ago were chastising WWW for being a doom-monger saying that the industry was in crisis following the US attacks - well I would suggest you reconsider. It seems he was absolutely right about this being the worst crisis to hit aviation since then Gulf War. I think it is worse.
Swissair bust, Sabena on the brink, BM and Virgin laying off pilots, BA cancelling all recruitment, 30% falls in advance bookings for air travel and 11% fall in pax numbers, as I said two weeks ago the situation looks extremely serious.
You may call me a doom-monger too but I see it as being realistic. We all know that when the travelling public decide that flying is too dangerous it takes a long time for them to change their minds during which time the airlines have to radically change their strategies. There is some truth in the argument that the airlines 'hijacked' the situation in order to make cuts they already wanted to make, but everyone is now feeling the pinch of the attacks.
Indeed it seems that the era of the 'flag carrier' is over. They just don't make money and we are entering a new phase of consolidation across the european and world airline markets. Today the proposed BA/KLM merger does not seem half as silly as it did a year ago. Airlines are businesses and they realise that they have to move with the times. Air France has always been propped up by the French government (in contravention of their own EU rules). Flag carriers do not make a profit and they now have to behave like PLCs and not public service providers.
This in itself will probably hit the pilot market too, in the short term at least, but once people decide to fly again the cancelled route will be reinstated and things will return to normal. But not for a while yet.
Swissair bust, Sabena on the brink, BM and Virgin laying off pilots, BA cancelling all recruitment, 30% falls in advance bookings for air travel and 11% fall in pax numbers, as I said two weeks ago the situation looks extremely serious.
You may call me a doom-monger too but I see it as being realistic. We all know that when the travelling public decide that flying is too dangerous it takes a long time for them to change their minds during which time the airlines have to radically change their strategies. There is some truth in the argument that the airlines 'hijacked' the situation in order to make cuts they already wanted to make, but everyone is now feeling the pinch of the attacks.
Indeed it seems that the era of the 'flag carrier' is over. They just don't make money and we are entering a new phase of consolidation across the european and world airline markets. Today the proposed BA/KLM merger does not seem half as silly as it did a year ago. Airlines are businesses and they realise that they have to move with the times. Air France has always been propped up by the French government (in contravention of their own EU rules). Flag carriers do not make a profit and they now have to behave like PLCs and not public service providers.
This in itself will probably hit the pilot market too, in the short term at least, but once people decide to fly again the cancelled route will be reinstated and things will return to normal. But not for a while yet.
Hmm, medium term predicitons are very hard to make. Its interesting that you raise the matter of EU consolodation of state airlines.
My Landlord was relating a story to me the other evening. He had been chatting to Bob Ayling at work who predicted that by 2005 there would be only 4 main carriers in Europe recognisable from today. This was Bobs view a couple of years ago.
It does seem a little old fashioned to keep the Iberias, Air Frances and Alitalias of this world operating at a commercial loss just so one has a Flag Carrier.
Perhaps EU wide consolodation will result in greater effiency which equates to a lower requirment overall for pilots as aircraft fly fuller.
Not something I have given much thought to and like most am guilty of thinking about the airline hiring market in purely national terms and references. Which is of course a nonsense post-JAA FCL.
That said there are more people in the EU than the US. If a decent restructuring takes place and service improves whilst ticket prices fall al a USA then perhaps the EU aviation market can grow to rival the size of the US market and there would be jobs for all during that expansion.
Interesting times,
WWW
My Landlord was relating a story to me the other evening. He had been chatting to Bob Ayling at work who predicted that by 2005 there would be only 4 main carriers in Europe recognisable from today. This was Bobs view a couple of years ago.
It does seem a little old fashioned to keep the Iberias, Air Frances and Alitalias of this world operating at a commercial loss just so one has a Flag Carrier.
Perhaps EU wide consolodation will result in greater effiency which equates to a lower requirment overall for pilots as aircraft fly fuller.
Not something I have given much thought to and like most am guilty of thinking about the airline hiring market in purely national terms and references. Which is of course a nonsense post-JAA FCL.
That said there are more people in the EU than the US. If a decent restructuring takes place and service improves whilst ticket prices fall al a USA then perhaps the EU aviation market can grow to rival the size of the US market and there would be jobs for all during that expansion.
Interesting times,
WWW
