Hmm, medium term predicitons are very hard to make. Its interesting that you raise the matter of EU consolodation of state airlines.
My Landlord was relating a story to me the other evening. He had been chatting to Bob Ayling at work who predicted that by 2005 there would be only 4 main carriers in Europe recognisable from today. This was Bobs view a couple of years ago.
It does seem a little old fashioned to keep the Iberias, Air Frances and Alitalias of this world operating at a commercial loss just so one has a Flag Carrier.
Perhaps EU wide consolodation will result in greater effiency which equates to a lower requirment overall for pilots as aircraft fly fuller.
Not something I have given much thought to and like most am guilty of thinking about the airline hiring market in purely national terms and references. Which is of course a nonsense post-JAA FCL.
That said there are more people in the EU than the US. If a decent restructuring takes place and service improves whilst ticket prices fall al a USA then perhaps the EU aviation market can grow to rival the size of the US market and there would be jobs for all during that expansion.
Interesting times,
WWW