Future of aviation

[Christianb]

Hi, today I did my first flight in a little school in Italy because I still don’t know if I want to be a pilot in my future. The instructor told me that the pilot request will decrease in the next years because first of all, by the next 20 years there will be only one pilot in the cockpit, and second, also the industry will decrease because there will be less people who travel for work by the fact that after covid pandemic they started to work in smart working, and now is not necessary to travel in another state to have an handshake for business…
what do you think about this future decrease?

[paco]

I would agree with the second comment.

[aviationdreamer]

No one can really predict a certain future; who expected the pandemic in 2019? The instructor has a valid point but it's an opinion after all. It's a personal choice if you decide to go for an aviation career or not, but remember that many other careers are expected to decrease in the future and people are still going for them. It is a personal decision.
Good luck!

[rudestuff]

I think it unlikely that there will be Single pilot crews any time soon. Systems break all the time and the crew is there to manage things when they do and make the hard decisions. Even IF we see a single pilot airliner in 10 years (which would require every country to be on board with the idea) - there will still be 2-crew airplanes flying around for 20-30 years after that. Hell there are still some 3-crew airplanes flying today.

[DBSomeone]

Something that I had also found interesting is this new trend towards eVTOL namely electric VTOL or air taxis. And despite there being a huge move towards autonomous vehicles, there will probably be a requirement for pilots to be in those vehicles for the next 10 years.

[parkfell]

If you have the passion & dedication to fly, that invariably is what you will do, irrespective any prophet of doom.
If you have any uncertainty then don’t.

[Pip_Pip]

I agree with Parkfell. In determining whether you want to become a professional pilot your experience over the next few flights will ultimately be more important than any conclusion regarding the future of the industry.

Industries are always evolving; rising and falling. All manner of jobs - even professional occupations - are considered to be under threat from automation, AI, the rise of the robots, etc. Whilst it's a valid concern I'm not sure that it should be a primary factor in your career choice. Much of life is about taking the plunge and seeing where it takes you. When things change, which they inevitably do, you adapt. So, you may as well start out doing the thing you actually want to do. (I realise there is a major cost consideration for you if you pursue a commercial licence, but the advice still has merit).

To your specific question, my personal view is that we may be over-estimating the long-term impact from COVID / Zoom / WFH. People travel because they want to and there really is no substitute for being there - whether that's for tourism, adventure, or business. Acceptable alternatives to 'being there' for business have existed for many years, yet still people chose to travel. They didn't do it for the journey itself, for the long days, the hotel-living, or the being away from home - they did it in spite of those things, because they felt there was an advantage to physically being there.

I don't see why humans are suddenly going to want to stop being places just because of a flu-like virus and a slight improvement to video-conferencing. Unless concerns over the environment are able to overcome our innate desire to travel, explore, experience new things and meet people in person, then I would expect the demand for air travel to remain. As for whether pilots will continue to be involved, the consensus thus far in the thread appears to be that they will for some time to come, and I share that view.