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FTE starting course

Old 19th Oct 2020, 17:07
  #21 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: England
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There will be hundreds of qualified pilots for every job that comes up for years to come.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 17:38
  #22 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
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Is it fair to say that 'all' more experienced crew/captains/FO's will work for a wage as low as a freshly minted cadet? is it financially viable to them? I agree It's going to be a few years before flight deck jobs will emerge. I suspect many will leave the industry and not return...some have and will retire. Common sense that people who have lost their jobs who aren't near retirement will have to find alternative careers many have financial commitments which won't wait until they can get re-hired and as things stand that's not going to be for a little while for many.

I feel there is a frequent albeit somewhat warranted pessimistic view point across PPRuNe, bucking the trend here I feel the industry will recover fairly quickly essentially once quarantine restrictions are lifted people will be keen to have their holiday that they missed and business travel should increase (yes I hear the online meeting arguments but frankly for me it's not close to face to face).

In my opinion there certainly are pathways I can see that will lead to this... 1) Vaccination (Pfizer is producing, Oxford/Astra Zeneca is close) 2) Faster and hopefully more affordable covid tests (technology is already emerging with 15 min tests) 3) A worldwide agreement policy on travel and covid along with immunity passports. I do think the biggest thorn in the side will be the state of the world economies, I think this will dictate how strong recovery may be.

Certainly it's a high risk time to train... but ultimately things will return it'll be a case of when not if, it's common human nature for people to think the current state will remain, good or bad, however the situation is very dynamic and even the airline top brass are unsure .... O.P I think it depends on your age and financial situation if you have age on your side a degree may be useful better yet some work/life experience is invaluable...ultimately only you know. I'm just not sure I'd recommend anyone taking on a big debt right now unless they are sure of their financial ability to pay it and keep current if needed..some go modular and that's an argument also... and a whole new topic of discussion ;-)

Personally I think 2022 will be a much stronger year if the vaccine has good results and enough can be produced... 2023 much closer to 2019 levels maybe a chance for jobs then.... I note certain airlines still committed to Neo's and 737 Max's...

I also note that there is a growing Covid fatigue, many getting sick of restrictions and hindrance to their life's (including myself) do we honestly feel that many people will just get more de-sensitised with time?...I do...

All my humble opinion of course!
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 17:57
  #23 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
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Nothing that is said is going to change the OP's mind anyway. Personally I would just offer a word of caution. Sadly there are many, many pilots who, just a couple of years ago, were looking at the same thing when there was an upswing in the industry and COVID wasn't even heard of who are now struggling to pay off huge debts (that terrible situation is another argument altogether imho) to training organisations without a job.

I've been in the flying world for a long time and I've never seen this level of confusion in this industry. Unless there is a coordinated effort to get the travel industry back on its feet between businesses and Governments then this recovery will be the survival of the fittest and a return to expensive travel for the few for quite some time to come.

I hope the vaccines will be the 'silver bullet' I truly do but until they show more efficacy than the flu vaccine then I fear that the recovery will still be slow.

As you say, all IMHO of course.
Wirbelsturm is online now  
Old 19th Oct 2020, 18:03
  #24 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Uk
Age: 39
Posts: 473
No risk, no gain, but it is a hell of a risk. Don’t bet the house on it or more than you can write off.

I don’t think you will find many pilots turning down work right now. It maybe unpalatable but it is a rebuilding process.

Don’t let anyone say you can’t, but be true to yourself and the situation. I do not see recruitment outside of current priority return pools for a good three years or so.

Good luck
bex88 is offline  
Old 19th Oct 2020, 19:52
  #25 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
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It is indeed premature to start training. I myself started training during a downturn, and turned out to be very good timing; However that was sheer luck and naivety from a young man. Many of my classmates never found a job and were unable to maintain ratings etc. They have worked a decade as ground staff in the airport trying to pay off the loans. Now likely laid off too.

The majority of airlines won't be rehiring fresh candidates for many years. It'll be a slow callback of furloughed workforce and cautious adding of routes followed by a period of contract squeezing and ever higher flight hours before Airlines reach breaking point and are forced to hire.

The only exception I see are the Middle-East airlines who made such dramatic terminations to match the grounded aircraft, and therefore will be forced to rehire as soon as the aircraft start flying again.
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 20:42
  #26 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: London
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I myself am looking at FTE but certainly wonít be starting this year. Maybe the back end of next year. Iím 25, have spent the last 7 years working my way up through the maritime industry, working as a Captain since 21. Itís a difficult choice not to chase the childhood dream, especially when sitting on the funds to do so but the timing is just not right. I know Iíll always have a career to fall back on and to keep current after training but even still I wouldnít go for it just yet!
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Old 19th Oct 2020, 21:28
  #27 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
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As I previously said, what has to be on your mind is - how do you bridge a gap of potentially 1-3 years between getting your ticket and gaining employment? If you have a firm and realistic answer to the questions of how to survive financially and how to stay current and knowledgeable during that potential gap - go for it.

However unpleasant the current situation is, it's not the end of aviation. You're looking into potentially spending 40 years or so in that field after the crisis is behind us - and, long-term, that will still be a needed and viable profession. But, as a good aviator, you always need to have a plan B in case things don't go as you wish. Mind it, this will likely not be the only crisis you will have experienced by the end of your career. So, the sooner you work out a meaningful answer to the question "What do I do if flying is not an option for some time to come but I still have to pay my bills?" - the more likely you are to have a relatively trouble-free life long-term.
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 04:40
  #28 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: London
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Anyone mortgaging their future to the tune of £120k at the moment is full on mentalz.

It's not that I wish to discourage the OP - it's just that the chances of there being a job at the other end are between slim and none.
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 06:57
  #29 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
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Originally Posted by Gioinve99 View Post
I agree that even for 2021/2022 the demand for pilots will be nil, these perspectives are very changeable according to the course of the situation, but I really think that everything will start again.
/2023/2024/2025

2026 might be the year, except your licenses will all have lapsed so youíll have to redo everything...
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 07:30
  #30 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
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To be honest the fact that most likely (hopefully) NO ONE would ever consider starting an integrated course now should halve the prices soon enough. How was it ever conceivable to pay 120k pounds no less for 100 something basic flight hours a few classes and some simulator is beyond me.
bringbackthe80s is online now  
Old 20th Oct 2020, 08:10
  #31 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: FLSomething
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To me the idea of spending anything is pretty mental, people often talk about £60K as being a bargain, it’s crazy. If no one paid anything then it would all be funded by airlines but that’s unlikely to change any time soon...
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 08:40
  #32 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
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If no one paid anything then it would all be funded by airlines
I have to agree with you but, unfortunately, airlines are run by accountants who are beholden to the board who are beholden to the investors to make money. As they have seen a revenue stream from training instead of a cost then they will, IMHO, never go back to it unless a fiscal gun is held to their metaphorical heads and a lack of flight crew causes a bigger loss further down the line in commercial ops.

Given that there is now a large pool of experienced flight crew who are all desperately trying to cover their bills and costs I would, sadly, suggest that T's & C's are not going to move in the direction we would wish them and that training will continue to be self subsidised, as reprehensible as that may be.
Wirbelsturm is online now  
Old 20th Oct 2020, 11:18
  #33 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Europe
Posts: 649
Airline-sponsored initial training? The short answer: not anytime soon, not in any significant numbers, not at all for the vast majority of airlines. This horse has bolted long before COVID. In fact, COVID was the last nail in its coffin, but the process of extinction of sponsored cadetships definitely started long before that. Why? Because. There are more than enough self-sponsored quality candidates even in the best of times and there's hardly any reason for an airline to make a large, high-risk investment into people who may or may not be needed in 2-3 years from now. Two years ago, who knew that COVID would come? Even in January and February 2020, when Wuhan was already in lockdown, Europe was set for a really strong year. And then it all went belly-up in less than a month - with a very sad outcome for everyone who had started a cadet programme in 2018-2019, when the respective airlines were 99,99% certain that they would have jobs for said cadets, come graduation time. So, why would an airline accept that financial risk if it can be entirely on the candidate instead?
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 14:21
  #34 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Posts: 2,310
When the fallout eventually settles down I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see two eventual outcomes. The first is an MPL being the only direct “apprenticeship” route into those airlines with “approved” cadet programmes. This would only be a small evolution of what has been happening for the last decade in any event. The second (and wait for the howls of derision) is for an ATPL to be the minimum requirement for airline flying in either seat. That is 1500 hours and the hard licence. That is exactly the position with the FAA and it isn’t much of a stretch to see it being adopted everywhere else.
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 16:39
  #35 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Europe
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It would be interesting to see some comparison of the levels of GA flying in the USA to those in Europe. It might be just my misperception of the picture, but aren't there far fewer GA opportunities in Europe which could potentially allow the young wannabe to build 1500 hours?
PilotLZ is offline  
Old 20th Oct 2020, 18:18
  #36 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
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Originally Posted by Dan95 View Post
I myself am looking at FTE but certainly wonít be starting this year. Maybe the back end of next year. Iím 25, have spent the last 7 years working my way up through the maritime industry, working as a Captain since 21. Itís a difficult choice not to chase the childhood dream, especially when sitting on the funds to do so but the timing is just not right. I know Iíll always have a career to fall back on and to keep current after training but even still I wouldnít go for it just yet!
Good choice.
Field Required is offline  
Old 20th Oct 2020, 20:34
  #37 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
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Is it fair to say that 'all' more experienced crew/captains/FO's will work for a wage as low as a freshly minted cadet?
Not all, but I'll go out on a limb and say that the vast majority of captains would now work for the c.£45k that was until recently on offer for easyJet SOs. The vast majority of FOs would work for free to "stay current" while finding another job (or two or three) on the side to pay the bills. New normal.
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Old 20th Oct 2020, 20:52
  #38 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2004
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Fair point, employers will invariably offer the least they can get away with for the maximum experience, and given the thousands unemployed this will drive down to sub 50K SH Captains, no matter what one thinks of their own abilities, experience and dashing good looks the market will always pay the least it can get away with.

Airline analysts reckons next year plenty of flag carriers on the way out and LCC barely scraping by, hope things aren't so dire, not in the industry anymore however even my job isn't safe, we are all at risk I'm afraid.

The days of any idiot with a pulse and a freshly issued CPL/IR or fATPL getting RHS 737/A320 are long gone... never to return.
flash8 is offline  
Old 20th Oct 2020, 22:22
  #39 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Europe
Posts: 649
Good luck flying 100 hours per month for free and combining that with a second job. Interesting how long can such people last, even if in their despair now they sign up for something like that. Many enthusiastic chaps think that it's a jolly ride and they won't get tired one bit because they look really sharp in that uniform. Guess what - reality is nothing like that...

The part I agree with is that some of the "right-sizing" happening now was much needed to weed out some people who got the job simply because they had the money to pay for the training. In the last couple of years, plenty of "idiots with a pulse" were indeed hired simply because someone needed to sit in that seat for the aircraft to fly. An airline FO not being able to explain what flaps and slats are for or another one taking out his phone to shoot a video at 500 feet AGL on takeoff while being PF are just two fine examples of people who should have never been where they were. It breaks my heart to say that life turned out to be far from fair once again and many very, very good guys and girls with outstanding knowledge and attitude also lost their jobs in the COVID mess - but what I very much hope for is that common sense will prevail when hiring picks up and those wonderful people get the chances they truly deserve while some others are kept away for the safety of all of us.
PilotLZ is offline  
Old 21st Oct 2020, 06:10
  #40 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: The Winchester
Posts: 6,138
Lots of good advice above...this isn't just another 9/11, GW1 or SARs "blip"...the industry is looking at structural change.

It doesn't matter how it's spun or what the "schools" say the fact is anybody investing serious money at the moment with a view to entering paid employment as an airline pilot in around 18 months time is taking a very serious and very risky gamble with their own (or somebody else's) money..therefore:

1. Anyone stubbornly insisting on starting an integrated course now should plan on having the resources (cash) available post course completion to keep their licence/rating valid for an indeterminate period post that training.

2. When the market starts to pick up the airlines will be the buyers in a buyers market..previously advertised/rumoured T&Cs may well not apply.

Last edited by wiggy; 21st Oct 2020 at 07:24.
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