Possible refund of training fees and further advice.

[Groundloop]

Cadets have been selected over experienced candidates in order to keep FTO's training.

No, they have not. Nothing to do with keeping FTOs in business. They have been selected because they are cheaper - and possibly a revenue stream through charging for the type rating.

[parkfell]

Originally Posted by hec7or

Didn't stop Cabair advertising courses for the "predicted 1993 pilot shortage" (there wasn't one)

I suspect the first Gulf War, August 1990 had an impact on aviation travel.
Economic confidence is all important.

[parkfell]

Originally Posted by Groundloop

No, they have not. Nothing to do with keeping FTOs in business. They have been selected because they are cheaper - and possibly a revenue stream through charging for the type rating.

Might retirements and expansion be a reason to employ the next generation of junior birdmen?

[kungfu panda]

Originally Posted by parkfell

Might retirements and expansion be a reason to employ the next generation of junior birdmen?

you can't be serious.

[polax52]

Originally Posted by parkfell

Might retirements and expansion be a reason to employ the next generation of junior birdmen?

Realistic timeline for the young birdmen. Based on the predictions of Dr Fauci and Bill Gates for a vaccine widely distributed in 18 months.

1. Completion of Lockdown. Summer 2020: Initiation of domestic flights. Some regional flights.

2. Vaccine distributed. Autumn 2021: Initial resumption of worldwide schedule (25% of 2019)

3. Peak Travel. Summer 2022: Initial return to travel by consumers (50% of 2019)

4. 2022 to 2025. Gradual return to normal at a increase of 20% per year (That's based on expanding an Airline from 1997 to 2000 in the States. 20% per year was the best we could do given training requirements).

5. Pilot retirement age will need to be increased as a result of lost time.That will slow entry of young people.

If I was young, I'd plan on having my licence and being ready to go for 2026. I have tried to be realistic, I don't think that there is any agenda here.

[parkfell]

Originally Posted by polax52

......
If I was young, I'd plan on having my licence and being ready to go for 2026. I have tried to be realistic, I don't think that there is any agenda here.

I wasn’t trying to say when recruitment would start again, simply why recruitment occurs for the next generation viz. retirements & expansion.
I think KP might have got the wrong end of the stick possibly. Just stating the obvious?

[hec7or]

Originally Posted by parkfell

I suspect the first Gulf War, August 1990 had an impact on aviation travel.
Economic confidence is all important.

Yes that too. Many will not remember how desperate the situation was in the early 90 s with airline sponsorships ending and fewer people being able to self sponsor due to interest rates peaking at 16%

[parkfell]

Originally Posted by hec7or

Yes that too. Many will not remember how desperate the situation was in the early 90 s with airline sponsorships ending and fewer people being able to self sponsor due to interest rates peaking at 16%

And back in August 1976 the interest rate was 26%. That followed the 3 day week in 1974.

A first time buyer in 1986 with no track record but a secure job the mortgage rate was 15% in some cases.

Post first Gulf War in 1990, recruitment took a long time to recover.

This present tsunami is different, but only economic confidence will restore this awful situation for aviation.