Originally Posted by
parkfell
Might retirements and expansion be a reason to employ the next generation of junior birdmen?
Realistic timeline for the young birdmen. Based on the predictions of Dr Fauci and Bill Gates for a vaccine widely distributed in 18 months.
1. Completion of Lockdown. Summer 2020: Initiation of domestic flights. Some regional flights.
2. Vaccine distributed. Autumn 2021: Initial resumption of worldwide schedule (25% of 2019)
3. Peak Travel. Summer 2022: Initial return to travel by consumers (50% of 2019)
4. 2022 to 2025. Gradual return to normal at a increase of 20% per year (That's based on expanding an Airline from 1997 to 2000 in the States. 20% per year was the best we could do given training requirements).
5. Pilot retirement age will need to be increased as a result of lost time.That will slow entry of young people.
If I was young, I'd plan on having my licence and being ready to go for 2026. I have tried to be realistic, I don't think that there is any agenda here.