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What Shortage?

Old 20th Apr 2020, 15:36
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What Shortage?

Never really was a pilot shortage.

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Old 20th Apr 2020, 16:30
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There has been one since the 70s - it was just masked by recessions
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 17:24
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There was hardly ever a shortage of 200-hour cadets. Such moments were very short and usually confined to growing economies.
In good times for aviation, there can be a localised shortage of experienced pilots. But again, usually confined to less-than-premium carriers or not particularly desirable locations. For the best jobs out there, competition has always been fierce in good days and extremely fierce in bad days.
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 20:11
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Con of the decade

Con of the decade.
Facts that the big schools kept selling, even as we speak, pilot shortages and increasing aircraft orders, Despite the fact it was all marketing and unproven. So many took the bait, most of them integrated.

They sold this for many years successfully, but now for one generation it has come all crashing down, one of my friends who has recently qualified in the last year with a 320 rating is looking at bankruptcy with 1000pm payment due for his 115k loan, others are looking at temporary career changes and one still in his training is not eligible for any state government support like universal credit as he is deemed to be a 'student', despite the fact there is no government support like universities, so who knows where he will be next. Ironically in recent years, bigger schools especially have labelled pilot training as an " an investment with substantial rewards", unfortunately unlike university, what will new graduates have to fall back on? Pilot training investments can truly fail.

For close peers and I, we're lucky for now and will return behind the controls as one of the first batch when this ends with a solvent small employer, but my thoughts are with those that have still been sold a dream despite years of this forum spelling out the reality, and are now experiencing a nightmare.
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Old 20th Apr 2020, 22:17
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I would argue there has never been a shortage of pilots per se, but of qualified individuals to be trusted in charge in the worst-case scenario.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 06:27
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The economic cycle is usually quoted for the ups & downs of pilot recruitment / manning levels. Historically 7 year cycles, but more recently world events.

Going back a few decades, Hamble eventually closed mid 1970’s, with BA training cadets up to a few years before closure but not type/line training them.
Next large push was late 1980’s when BAe flying college PIK commenced at a cost of 18m. The cost of one Tornado. The good days were back for Oxford as well.

First Gulf war 1990 put the brakes (RTO style) on training, then 9/11, and then second Gulf War.
These events ‘modified’ the 7 year cycles.

COVID 19 possibly will equate to WW111 for the devastation it is causing. Difficult to assess until vaccinations are mass produced.

As William Pitt the Younger said in 1806 “Roll up the map of Europe, it will not be needed for ten years” (or words to that effect)

In our case probably getting on for 3-4 years.......?
Let us hope Prof Sarah Gilbert hits GOLD very soon.
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Old 21st Apr 2020, 07:05
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Originally Posted by planesandthings View Post
Con of the decade.
Facts that the big schools kept selling, even as we speak, pilot shortages and increasing aircraft orders, Despite the fact it was all marketing and unproven. So many took the bait, most of them integrated.
All integrated schemes are scams. Pure marketing scams sustained by very little competence...apart from the marketing departments.

National authorities supporting this is also criminal. The whole vicious circle of students not daring to open their mouth for fear the sausage factory might ruin their career even though they havent flown for a month, that instructors are retards, that ATPL training is outdated. Losers "dumping their bags" on new entrants (hello Ponzi) because they've already invested before those and need a job they couldnt find elsewhere (hello cool instructors), and so on... This industry has disgusting aspects for sure. Good luck to all the good people trying to live their dream though.
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