Nice of you to try and bring some info to the forum WWW, but I agree with others that you are being needlessly pessimistic.
Having been through the 80's and 90's as a pilot (and before as a wannabe), I can tell you that these downturns are all basically the same, with the slight difference that airlines are a lot more circumspect these days, and tend to take action before the planes get reposessed. This is a Good Thing, as it tends to safeguard jobs.
I well remember 1989, when I started with Loganair. I chose them because they offered to pay for my IR- just as well, too, as the other 12 airlines that offered me jobs were bankrupt within a year or three. Names like BIA, Novair, Paramount, Capital, National Commuter, London City Airways, Birmingham International, not to mention Air Europe, Dan, etc. By 1994, BEST aircrew had over 500 type-rated, experienced jet pilots on their books as unemployed, and there were many more turboprop and instructor pilots, and many newly minted pilots too- well over 1200 in all by estimates of the time (does any of this start to sound familiar to you...???)
And yet, a couple of years later, there were virtually no unemployed pilots and a hiring boom in full swing.
The point is this. The travelling public will continue to fly, and in increasing numbers. Once this blip is over, the industry will grow even larger. At the moment, what you are seeing is companies taking very rapid action to safeguard their position- I suspect a lot of what has happened in the last few days will be reversed in the weeks ahead. My company, BE, even suspects that we might have to hire pilots in the reasonably near future (and that has nothing to do with the acquisition of Gill routes either). Some, like EasyJet and Go, are still hiring (at least I assume Go are from what I hear).
Remember, the only airlines to be badly hit are those reliant on trans-Atlantic travel. The downturn in the rest of the market has not been nearly as dramatic, and most figures you see bandied around are based on forward booking figures, which will naturally slump after an event like last week. That doesn't mean people won't fly, simply that they will book nearer the time of travel to give them time to assess the risk.
The reason that some airlines have shown themselves to be troubled by recent events, is that they were already highly vulnerable. Most of the reason for that is beyond their control, and is not really within the scope of this thread.
Of the four sectors I flew to and from London City airport yesterday- and London City must be perceived as a high-risk airport from a pax point of view- the loads were high on two (ie 80%), and good on two others (ie about 60%). These are good figures for a traditional airline with the sort of yield management we have, and the number of Business Class we carry.
Your figures are interesting, but they grossly over-simplify the situation, and I think it is somewhat misleading of you to go down that road.
The industry is not that much bigger than it was 10 years ago, there are certainly less airlines now than there were then, and the training industry is geared for an artificial bump in training capacity for a variety of reasons.
The JAA thing is a red herring.
As
no sponsor said, it is mostly idle speculation, do some research yourself before you commit to anything... and also before you cancel anything. Those that remember the early 90's will recall how those who did the training in the tough times were in the box seat when things improved.
Two other things, WWW said:
margins in flightraining are very slim and there will be little in terms of fee reduction. It didn't happen to any great extent in the 1991 crisis.
Not entirely correct. In 1987, you could hire an Aztec for multi training for just over £200 per hour. By 1989, it was over £300 at many schools, and climbing. Some have now come down a bit, but make no mistake, some very large amounts of money have been made in the flight school business; it is, like any business, about supply and demand. I did my multi training at what was a brand new school and got it for £220 (in 1989 when converting my NZ licence).
WWW also said:
Your regional TP airline will quite happily take an applicant with prior commercial experience over someone with none. Training risk is eliminated and if they leave inside of three year they will get a chunk of bond money back. The low time guy will still be kicking around willing to take the place of the guy who has now returned to his big jet.
Again, not true. Most regionals know that the experienced guy, assuming he is type-rated on something bigger, will leave at the drop of the hat and their net training costs will be higher. That is why many airlines deliberately employ low-houred people- they can usually rely on them staying longer. Training risk is most definitely NOT eliminated as previous experience can make conversion to new SOPs and types problematical- on my F27 course a few years back, three very experienced pilots (including a 20-yr fast jet Squadron Leader) failed the course while two 200-hour F/O's (and me) passed it.
Finally- and I mean this in the nicest possible way without in any way wanting to have a go at you- it is very dangerous to pontificate on the airline industry on the basis of your few months of employment in it. It would be wiser to seek the views of those with many years experience in the industry as most have seen this (or something very like it) before. That is, in fact, what Wannabes desperately need: wise, experienced heads to guide them (both the individuals and the forum).