OK So who's step is faltering??

[bow5]

I'd be more than happy to be a flying instructor after doing ATPL training. Obviously the pay's pants but as a job it still beats the living hell out of an office. The problem, as far as I see it, is that airlines, in the majority of cases, regard 152 and PA28 hours as worthless and irrelevant.
I know instructors who have amassed 1500 hours instructing and airlines have said it's no good for them.
As far as my situation goes, I can borrow upto about 20k from family (for which I count myself damn lucky) so depending upon where I decide to train i'll be looking to borrow in the region of 20-30k.

It's a toughie.

[Red Snake]

Don't knock the instructor route. It's way better than doing no flying at all - it'll keep you current, build hours (may be not the best hours, but better than staying stuck at 285 total). It will also help keep you in the network - the single most important factor in getting that first job. Most flying & gliding clubs are frequented by airline pilots - get to know them!

I spent many years as an instructor in the recession-laden early 90s. And every job I've had since then has been through contacts, not mass CV mailings (but do that too!). I got my first airline job with 1500 hours, almost all instructing hours in C152, PA28 etc. It's still much better than 285 total & no longer current.

[scroggs]

RVR,
I'm sorry, I'm not going to take all the blame for the recession, if it happens! However, a few quid says my prognosis is closer to the eventual outcome than yours. Unless there is some positive economic news in the next few weeks, consumer spending will reduce markedly, and a recession is then pretty much inevitable - for a while. The IMFs growth predictions seem to be based on 20-20 hindsight, rather than any intelligent analysis of economic activity. OK, I'm a pilot, not an economist, but it's spooky how the IMF reduces its growth predictions each time a new set of bad results are announced - and these are for accounting periods that ended some months ago. My own airline was in profit for the year April '00 to April '01, but we were almost certainly losing money by the end of that period, and it's got worse since. BA's results, announced quaterly, reflect the same trend.
The fact is that trading conditions for the service industries, which have held up well previously, are now very difficult. Consumer confidence is being affected. Industrial confidence is lower than it's been for many years. No-one's investing, thus few supplier companies can expect to make a profit. Therefore they will cut their costs - by reducing workforces, among other things, and consumer confidence will take another hit. It's a pattern that's been played out many times before, and it's reasonably well understood - although no-one seems to know how to stop it!
Inflation and interest rates are low, so it's unlikely that there will be many large company failures - they will be able to afford to reschedule debts without them becoming unmanagable, and the banks are likely to be fairly benevolent in these conditions.
The most worrying aspect of this slowdown is that the US, Europe, Asia and Japan are all suffering in synch. That's very unusual; normally as one part of the world slows, another grows, and opportunities continue. This time it's going to be difficult for companies to make money anywhere in the world for a while.
But it will recover, probably sooner rather than later, but it'll be a fairly tentative recovery because of the lack of bright spots in the world economy. I don't subscribe to the '5 years of gloom' philosphy, which seems to me to be as irrational as the caims for the 'new world economy' were 2 years ago.

[FMC=MC2]

Here's my tuppence worth,

What else do I want to do.....nowt.

Will I get a job..................?

Shall I try...............oh yes!

Good luck all.

[The Greener Grass]

Bow5, roger what you say. Ideally you would want to graduate to IMC/IR/Multi instructing after you have done many hours of PPL instructing. Obviously more difficult to come by. Do any current/past instructors care to comment, e.g. WWW et al? I am not sure of the minima for IR instructing e.t.c?

Usually the person is as relevant a factor as what quality of hours they have, else why do high hour on type captains get turned away from jobs?

I do therefore agree with Red Snake, that any hours are better than nothing, and you must put yourself at the top of the desirable pile.

[ 11 September 2001: Message edited by: The Greener Grass ]

[The Greener Grass]

Oh dear oh dear. Have just reread my last post, after returning from the pub on Monday 10th September. I thought rather than obsolescing this thread it may be best to resurrect it and try and band around some ideas for debate.

I have noted the contents of WWW's 'Sticky' thread and this does make for some pretty scary reading. At present, clearly the north Atlantic operators will bear the brunt of the pain. BA may well follow suit with job losses. When it will become desperate for us wannabes is when (if) the domestic and European operators begin to shed jobs. This is the 4-year or whatever scenario that WWW envisages, and I have to say for all the optimism in the world, this may become the case.

So what does Joe Wannabe do? There is no point burying one's head in the sand and pushing on regardless.

Those of you who really want to fly now as a career, because you 'hate your job that much' need to find another one for the time being. Sorry, but with no sponsorships going ahead now, and little chance of a full time job after a 1 year ab-initio course this must be your best option?

I suggest (and this is not the place for that time old argument) that the balance has swung firmly in favour of the modular student for those brave souls wishing to start a course. Why? 2K for ground school taking a good year or so (distance learning). This buys time to see whether the suspension of your dream is the only option. You then have time to wait until you commit to CPL/IR etc., which is what hurts. I have heard conflicting figures for timescale for this, perhaps somebody can provide the definite answer, but after finishing ground school it is in the several year domain I believe. Somebody please??

Those about to commit to an ab-initio course, then at least wait 6 months for the dust to settle and reassess the world. It just may not end up as bad as the 'expert analysts' are talking up. OR THEY MAY BE SPOT ON.

I had written 'a year's worth of instruction'. Hopelessly inadequate now. My suggestion is to plan on part time instructing for as long as it takes the industry to brighten up. I hope somewhere in that period to enter (full time) commercial instruction, although of course the demand there will be minimal as well. The hours gained instructing will not be as important as the time elapsing whilst gaining the hours, as the aviation industry bounces back.

As the search facility (indeed all of Pprune access) is difficult at present, I would once again ask WWW and other instructors to comment on especially their stories for PPL and commercial instructing. I.e. what hours you had when you changed to commercial e.t.c. and how difficult the job was to come by (then)!

Any other thoughts on this are welcome. Sorry not to be my usual optimistic self.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well as you ask.

I got my PPL instructors job with 400hrs in April 1999 and I was replacing a chap who died in a CFIT incident. I was local and had been hassling for a job some 2 years prior to getting the rating.

I got my Commercial instructing job about 9 months later with just over 1,000 hrs and a newly minted IR.

12 months later I got the airline job.

The problem at the moment is that potentially all the self sponsored cadets graduating will not find work. About 75% will get instructor ratings after 6 - 9 months of fruitless searching for work. Which means then end of paid PPL flight instruction.

It then comes down to who lives closest to th airfield an is willing to wash the bosses car.

Harsh but true.

WWW

[The Greener Grass]

In answer to the original thread title - mine is beginning to a little bit. Well at least the timescale is rapidly increasing!, but I will not let it break me.

So in summary then it appears you need to be able to do virtually full time instruction for nothing, and have a handsomely paid job for working 2 days a week. That should be easy to arrange!

Thanks for your honesty anyway WWW. As I said before it may look a little less suicidal in the medium term. Let's all hope so.

[Desk-pilot]

As the starter of the thread I thought I'd just chuck my four-penneth in again.

I've decided not to go for an integrated in the short term but to keep the situation under review and carry on working in my utterly boring desk job for the time being!

I might consider doing a PPL over the next year gradually because at least then I will be flying even if it's only 2 hours a month!

I can't believe that a few crazies in the Middle East have scuppered my chances again! I got to final stage with BA in 1991 and then the Gulf War broke. Wish my eyesight was better - if it was I'd apply for the RAF and teach them a lesson!

Sincerest condolences to all affected.

Desk-pilot

[aged]

There are a lot of us in the Sh*t. I am currently working my 3 months notice that I handed in about 2 weeks ago. That had been on the basis of full time training from January. Ah well.

In the immediate future, the biggest question is probably what is going to happen re. WW3. Whether I go fly in January can wait a wee while.

And I'm writing this from the Middle East. Good time to be an expat earning the cash to learn to fly!

[scroggs]

All bets are off, at least for the forseeable future. Predictions are very difficult in these conditions, as the industry's never suffered such a sudden and catastrophic loss of customer confidence. But I'll have a go! However, I'm as in the dark as everyone else, so any or all of my thought might be rubbish.
There will be a loss of more than 50% of traffic on the North Atlantic and Middle East routes in the short term. That will last as long as there is uncertainty about the US's intentions about going to war. If they actually do go to war, look for traffic to reduce further in those markets.
There is already a jobs fallout from the US and trans-atlantic airlines. Something like 2000 highly-qualified pilots will be released back into the European jobs market, maybe more if the domestic and low-cost sectors start to hurt badly. I'd guess that 2-300 of those pilots will be from the UK, and will be looking for jobs here.
There is unlikely to be any significant airline recruiting for two years; even replacement of retirees is probably out. With a recession now virtually inevitable, there are few prospects for solid airline recovery within 3 to 4 years. In good times, the UK industry hires about 150 pilots a year. In these somewhat unusual circumstances, how long will it take to re-absorb those 2-300 pilots? Many will leave the profession entirely, but I'd guess that these guys (including me) will fill the airlines' needs for the next 18 months or more.
So would I start training now if I were you? No, I'd wait a year or so.
But I could be wrong.

[Red_Devil]

Scroggs and WWW,

Thanks for your opinion. I had already decided to take a breather and wait and see what happens over the next few months. Your advice and observations have confirmed that it is the right thing to do.

Thanks again.

RD