Is now a good time to train? You might be surprised!

[JohnRayner]

Not if you wanted to be a train driver.

[heli_port]

A friend of mine was midway through his PPL, after speaking to those in the know and after reading these forums he's stopped training and gone off to do a phd. I wish i'd done the same ;( I made it into BA only to find i'm in the hold pool after completing my TR. I've spend nearly £90k of my own money and i haven't got a penny back. ;(

[Leezyjet]

We should get a stand of our own at one of these "seminars" and tell these wannabe zombies just how it really is out there in the real world, or at least give their parents the true picture of the industry at the moment.

[heli_port]

The World will never be short of fully qualified inexperienced pilots. But there will be a time once more when the World stops spitting on them and stealing their dinner money..

I'm going to disagree with you on tha point W. Once the economy turns around we are going to see $150-$200 oil prices and thus a squeeze on the bottom line of an airlines balance sheet. They are going to expect people to pay for TR etc and work for less money. With oil prices as high as that people will need more money to train and thus i guess we'll see a mpl type license arrangement where they fund some of your training and you pay it back with interest in the long run further reducing what you take home. It will come to a point where a young whipper snapper will have no problem in going along with the new system because they are young and have no family commitments and thus can work for what we call a lower wage but in actual fact it will be a pot of gold to them When the world invents a new low cost carbon neutral fuel source that's when the new golden age will begin. I boarded a bus yesterday and he was wearing gold stripes on his shoulder...

[Coffin Corner]

Originally Posted by Nemo

Return On Investment- I see what your saying about keeping your funds for when the industry improves, but I also see your age is 36 are you not worried it will be too late?

People just still don't get it.
Nemo maybe you didn't mean it this way but if he's 36, and you're 30 you are basically saying now or never? To be honest it may as well be never. If you were to wait another 3-4 years before embarking on training then it might just be a good time. If you did it now, regardless of age then the likelihood is, it "aint" going to happen for 3-4 years. All you do by training now is give yourself the added expense of remaining current for 3 years whilst you wait until the good times arrive.
If you train in a few years - it "might" not happen because of your age (according to you)
If you train now - it aint going to happen.

I know which one I'd rather take the chance on.

CC

[Coffin Corner]

Originally Posted by John-Nicholl

I'm 16 and just got the news I've been waiting for,
my bank will give me the cash......



Do I go for it??

John, have you not read the "Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us" thread? If not I suggest you go back and read a large chunk of that thread, then ask yourself that question before posing it here.

Originally Posted by John-Nicholl

Have 30ish Hours in c152, (if i dont say-so myself I'm pretty good)

But you did say so yourself

[Bealzebub]

Hopefully no one will get to my parents and tell them the awful truth
That or my Bank Manager,

I'm 16 and just got the news I've been waiting for,
my bank will give me the cash......

John,

Banks don't give you cash, unless it is already your own in a savings or current account. They loan you cash, which in reality means they sell you cash. If you are considering a loan, then you and or the guarantor should be absolutely satisfied that doing so will not overstretch your ability to repay, without relying on any proposed income from flying.

You can borrow money at any age, but access to loans may be limited because a lender will not usually be able to take a young person to court if they break the terms of a loan. This is because you cannot usually be legally held to a contract you make when you are under 18.

If you apply for a credit card when you are under 18, you will have your application turned down.

I see you are in Scotland, where the rules are slightly different in that certain types of contract can be enforced at age 16. Nevertheless you should be very cautious indeed before taking out any form of significant borrowing and you should most definetaly discuss the realities with your parents before doing so.

Embarking on flying training is a decision for you. You should know from reading these threads that the near/medium term prospects for earning any sort of realistic living from it are extremely poor at this time. It would be a very poor decision to substitute your education on the current prospects of an aviation career. However if you are intending to advance your experience and ratings through to a flying instructors rating on a commercial pilots licence, and can do so without jeopardising anything else, than I cannot see anything wrong with a measured approach to that type of training at this stage.

As boring as it sounds, my advice would be to take a considered, paced approach to your flying, and save money! At some point in the future cash will be king, whereas debt will be a millstone around your neck.

[Flintstone]

Originally Posted by JohnNicholl

Hopefully no one will get to my parents and tell them the awful truth
That or my Bank Manager,
I'm 16 and just got the news I've been waiting for,
my bank will give me the cash......
Do I go for it??
Options please,
Have 30ish Hours in c152, (if i dont say-so myself I'm pretty good)
Modular but one course after another want to do a FI
Year out as an instructor
then regional then national etc (probably the best route in Scotland(im told))

Excellent baiting, well done. Now enough of the trolling, the door is thataway.

[Frankly Mr Shankly]

"I guess all we read on here is doom and gloom, because the guys who are out there who are getting jobs are not posting on here, and maybe the ones who cant have nothing better to do but post doom on here."

But Nemo, how about those of us in the industry, having had to relocate to another country, and taking a 30% pay cut for the priveledge, and more redundancies announced this week, does that not sound alarm bells??? I can not account for every individual's circumstances, yours may be a position where you can afford the gamble, many can not.

And the truth is, the reality of airline life at the moment, and for a few years to come, is extremely precarious. As I say each individual and their circumstances are different, but for the average wannabee, hell even average line pilot with a few thousand hours, the prospects are dodgy to say the least.

I never hoped to say it, but it is attrition in this game at the moment, and for the forseeable unfortunately. I'm seriously not trying to put anyone off this profession, it is a wonderful way to earn a "living", if you can call it that at the mo, but timing really really has to be everything, and right now, jeez, I wouldn't advise anyone to enter into it. Eyes wide open, then have another living income to fall back on. Because you will need it right now.

Good luck to all, but right now, think hard and then harder still.

[disco87]

Is it always like this, what is the industry like when things are more normalized?

[G SXTY]

Nemo, - how many experienced commercial pilots do you know? I’m guessing not many, because you badly need some advice . . .

I guess all we read on here is doom and gloom, because the guys who are out there who are getting jobs are not posting on here, and maybe the ones who cant have nothing better to do but post doom on here.

Nope, I’m afraid that’s wishful thinking. It really is that bad out there. Really. Honestly. There is virtually no movement in the job market, nor has there been for some time, and it’s got a while to go yet. There are still unemployed XL pilots out there, and it would be a brave man to predict we’ll make it through the winter without at least one more UK airline falling over. The effect on the job market shouldn’t need spelling out, but just in case it isn’t clear enough, my airline is inundated with low-hours CVs when times are good. And there are (were) opportunities, because people were moving on to big and better paid things at the rate of 10-12 per month. They needed replacing. However, at the moment there is nowhere else to go. When last I heard (right from the horse’s mouth) we had had no resignations for over 5 months. I’m sure it’s more like 9 or 10 months now. Put simply, that’s 100 or so FO positions that aren’t available any more. At just one airline. And we’re not the biggest, not by a long way. I know someone with 5 years’ seniority at BA who is twitchy about his job prospects . . .

Doom and gloom is a natural part of the signal to noise ratio on these forums, but don’t kid yourself that your job prospects are anything other than awful, whatever Oxford, FTE, Cabair or whoever try and suggest.

I have had the exact worry at 30 and although it would be so easy staying in my current lifestyle and job that pays me very well, I know the years are slipping by, and its really now or never for me.

Rubbish. The age question gets asked at least once a week, and a ten-minute trawl of the threads will tell you that you are not too old. If anything, by career-changer standards, you are young. I managed to get my first job aged 36, Danny (Captain PPrune) did it at 37, and I could introduce you to many, many colleagues who started off in their thirties or older.

If you really want to jeopardise your chances of making it to a right hand seat, it’s not age you should be worried about - it’s qualifying when there are virtually no jobs out there, and bleeding your finances to death by trying to keep an IR current while you wait for things to improve.

It’s all about timing.

[Return-On-Investment]

Return On Investment- I see what your saying about keeping your funds for when the industry improves, but I also see your age is 36 are you not worried it will be too late?

I have had the exact worry at 30 and although it would be so easy staying in my current lifestyle and job that pays me very well, I know the years are slipping by, and its really now or never for me.

The general view here seems to be that when there are jobs age isn't a huge factor - in fact some operators may see age/experience as a bonus.

If the good times return in 5 years time I would much rather work hard now in my current job and be training at the age of 41 with my mortgage paid off and my training money saved in a positive job market than at 36 with no hope of employment.

I've worked hard for what I have got and would need to see a realistic opportunity for employment to start training and would not borrow any cash. It's much harder to part with your own hard earned cash than borrow from someone else!

[Whirlygig]

John-Nicoll, you've obviously heard a few business buzz words to convince yourself you've got an unsecured loan at the age of 16. Trust me, there's security and guarantees somewhere; either that, or it's fraudulent, based on fabricated accounts.

No bank would give an unsecured loan to a 16 year old and no bank would give an unsecured loan to a company - there would need to be at least a debenture or mortgage on the company's assets.

If a company gets a loan, the company repays its, not the son of the shareholders or directors. Therefore. your family companies are the ones who are lending you the money which they themselves have borrowed from the bank.

Companies lending to directors and their connected persons is illegal under the Companies Act.

Cheers

Whirls

[KAG]

While I agree with the general trend of this thread, speaking about the fact that spending a lot of money for a pilot job is less and less appropriate and relevant over the years, I disagree with the good timing to begin your training.

I beleive that the best time is when everything is slow, and everybody choose an other career path because of no forseen opportunities. When everybody is hiring, all the training industry is screaming because of the so called pilot shortage, it is definitely too late.

Lets take the example of a guy I know (there are many others) who started his training just after september 11, when he finished he was hired in an industry that was recovering, he is today jet captain, after having flown a lot each year. If he had started in 2006, 2007, just to make sure the industry was stable, he would be jobless and covered with debts today.

So I say again: there is plenty of reasons not to become a pilot nowadays, escpecially if you have to pay a big amount of money to get your basic training, but this industry works in cycle. You have to jump when the cycle is down, there are many example of successfull pilots starting their training in 1992, in 2001, and many people in debts because they started their training in 1998-9, in 2006-7. Keep in mind that from the day you choose to do your training to the day you finish it, 2 years would be spent.
Somebody who takes the decision today to get trained will finish end of 2011, begining 2012. Well ahead compared to the ones just starting then.

I realize most of you guys will be against me, and will say I am a fool giving this kind of advice right now. But lets meet on this thread in exactly 2 years from now, October 19th, 2011. We will see then...

What I say here doesn' t change the fact that overall, it is not worth it spending so much money to get a very unstable low wage job.

[Nearly There]

I think Flinstone called it correctly above ^^^

[Bealzebub]

It also leaves us with limited liability and I'm lucky because the bank isnt requiring security (due to the families other businesses all being with the same bank)

whirleygig: The company doesnt lend to the director, It pays for training of a director.
There is security on a previous company's assets that I yes me at 16 own 99.5% of.

It isn't really anybody elses business what your financial arrangements are, although you seem to be a litttle contradictory? In any event I would repeat my earlier advice about speaking to your parents concerning the realities. You could always call it a directors board meeting, I suppose!

PS. John, It is quite difficult to quote you, or follow your train of thought or reasoning, when you keep deleting your own posts!

[Whirlygig]

It isn't really anybody elses business what your financial arrangements are,

It might be HM Revenue & Customs' business when the tax on the benefit in kind isn't paid or the bank's business when they realise that the loan was not for the purposes of the business (unless, of course, it's an airline )

Cheers

Whirls

[L'aviateur]

The point is that seems to be missed by some is that we aren't at the bottom of the recession as far as the airlines are concerned. Popped my head into a few flight decks recently to hear nervous talk of the future, and the same around the flying schools.
I know two ex-oxford graduates instructing SEP, one of whom absolutely hates it whilst the other enjoys it, both graduated just over a year ago and have second jobs.
I also know of instructors waiting tables to top up the salary.

Whilst I'd love to plunge onwards, as I said I enjoy flying, I have the money to go forward but would be absolutely insane to do anything further now. I just think a reality check is needed, and I really can't understand how these seminars can preach now is right. I think the estimates of another 3 - 5 years is more likely. Then again, will it bounce back as big with all carbon footprint and environmental taxes etc.

[PA28Viking]

Gentlemen, allow me to differ! And pardon for this rather long post.

I have just finished my CPL and ME/IR at the age of 49. I’m not looking for an airline job, all I really wanted was an IR, but as I had the time and money I decided to treat my self to a nice 50 year birthday present. But don’t say that age is not an issue. Maybe 30 or 37 or even 40+ is possible, and there might even be jobs for an 50 year old, but the numbers are defiantly decreasing with age.

However that is not the point I would like to make. Let us look at the ideal twenty something year old standard wannabe.

One of my instructors ones said, when we where discussing the possibility of next days flying lesson going ahead, due to a marginal weather forecast: “It may not look good now, but one thing is fore sure; If we are not at the airfield tomorrow, we are not going to fly”. So we met the next day and flying was possible.

I think the same logic can be applied to training: If you do not finish your training, you are not going to get a job flying.

Case A: Let us assume that we know the faith of one imaginary wannabe and that is that no matter what, he will get a flying job in five years time. He doesn’t know, but we do.
He then has basically two options:

1. Go right ahead and do his training, finish in say two years time, then go unemployed (flying job wise) for three years, then get a piloting job. Or,
2. Wait some years (ideally three), then do the training and then go directly into the piloting job.

In the three years of unemployment he can take other jobs, get alternative education, live off his girlfriend or whatever. In option 1) he would also have the burden for servicing the loans he took to finance his training, and the costs of keeping up his medical, licences and ratings, but he would also have the possibility to build hours flying privately, lifting sky jumpers, towing gliders etc. etc.

So what is the best option? Well, no matter what, in our little scenario he will not get a job before the five years are gone, so it makes little difference.

Now a case B. Let us assume that all we know is that the outlook for the coming years are bleak, but there would be a 20 % chance of getting a job each of the years following his training, with a slightly better chance, if his had had the chance to get some hours under his belt.

Which option is the best now? Back to the wise word about the weather forecast, I would go for option 1!

I recognize that times are bad in the industry, but if flying is what you want then until you are ready, it’s not going to happen.

The Viking.

[G SXTY]

PA28Viking

You articulate your case very well, and I understand the point you are making, but - with the greatest respect – you introduce yourself as someone who has just finished the CPL/IR and is not looking for an airline job. Your comments really have to be viewed in that perspective.

The experienced commercial pilots on this forum all started off as wannabes, and have all been through the trials and tribulations of getting a first job. We understand, often from bitter experience, just how difficult it is to get that first break. We understand that luck, in the sense of “right time, right place”, is as big a factor as ability or cash, or contacts. As a newly qualified CPL holder you are competing against hundreds if not thousands of similarly qualified and (in)experienced pilots, and to maximise your chances of success, you really need as many factors on your side as possible. That includes making your own luck, by aiming – where possible - to qualify at a point in the economic cycle when airlines are recruiting low-hours pilots in significant numbers.

That is why the overwhelming consensus amongst experienced commercial pilots is that this is the wrong time to be spending money on commercial training. The only exception I can see is for someone who is thinking of starting modular training, with a view to finishing in not less than 3 years time.

We have a generation of young wannabes who are witnessing a recession, close up and personal, for the first time. Some contributors to this very thread were at junior school at the time of 9/11, and weren’t even born at the time of Gulf War 1. As a consequence it’s hardly surprising that they have little appreciation of just how long and deep recessions can be in this business, and just how many years down the road it will be before the pool of experienced pilots is drained, and airlines start turning to newly qualified pilots again. And we are talking years, not the 14 months or so it takes to complete an integrated course.

Keeping current and treading water while you wait for the market to improve is easier said than done, particularly for a youngster with no work or life experience and nothing of note to their CV except for a £70k debt. Even assuming you could afford it, your two or three year-old IR, with minimal hours between renewals, will always struggle to compete with someone who finished training a few weeks ago.

It keeps coming back to timing.