Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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I guess the problems of lack-of-jobs / unhealthy-economy only arises when pilots aren't willing to take a bottom of the ladder job to get a foot in the door..?
The main event is the Recession in the US, the one just starting in Japan and the one the EU will be in next year.
There's just a tender slowdown due to reduced exports to the US.
The Olympics are good business for the Japanese travel industry, as Japanese will not hesitate to visit their neighbors and see their landmates perform. The media industry and telecoms will also benefit from the olympics.
The EU in a recession next year?
I don't think so. The 21st century EU industries are very diversified due to different countries proposing different services/products and at the same time the EU being very contained within itself. External economic pressures matters to some regards, as many industries like aircraft manufacturers rely alot on exports but in worldwide depression situation, the EU can become a productive island.
Governments and authorities are almost recession-proof as different authorities overlay to form a web of redundancy unlike the U.S. where the government has full control on everything.
I see 2009 as a very good year for many EU countries and seen that 100% of WWW's apocaliptic predictions (oil at 200$
, all airlines grounded by year end , back to stone age , etc...) are failing, I feel pretty confident when stating that here.
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TUI enjoys strong holiday demand
BBC News: TUI enjoys strong holiday demand
TUI Travel, which owns Thomson and First Choice, says demand for package holidays remains strong despite the strong euro and the economic downturn.
The firm said there was no evidence that consumers were trading down or curtailing their holidays.
The firm said there was no evidence that consumers were trading down or curtailing their holidays.
The small reduction in oil prices was raised by RVR800, not me.
Whilst any large company such as BA has sophisticated currency hedges the fact is that for more UK airlines revenue is mostly in Sterling and the price of Oil is set in Dollars. As the Pound slumps the real cost of oil increases for companies who generate most of their revenue in Sterling.
All those clamouring for an interest rate cut to help mortgage holders and businesses need to remember that lower of IR's will put downward pressure on Sterling. As we are net importers of goods and materials this will only accelerate the high rates of inflation experienced. Those in debt will be tortured either on their loan repayments, or their lowering living standard caused by inflation, or by experiencing unemployment. You pays your money and takes your choice. A little of each is probably the Bank of Englands desire. Mr Brown would probably rather just see inflation as he can pass that off as being out of his control and a global event.
Either way, the years of millions of people living a lifestyle way way beyond their means in the UK is now over. Unfortunately, ski holidays, second homes, weekend breaks and exotic holidays were all part of that lifestyle. Which is the problem now about to confront Wannabes.
The name of the Wannabe game in the years to come will be longevity. Those that can hang around keeping their ratings current and actively seeking flying work will eventually make it. Those with high debt levels who need a job quickly will find themselves forced back into their offices or previous careers where their dreams of a flying career slowly die.
Unless of course people start using personal bankruptcy as a tool. Which they might. But then you can forget about any kind of flying training finance for many years to come.
Interesting times ahead, unfortunately.
WWW
Whilst any large company such as BA has sophisticated currency hedges the fact is that for more UK airlines revenue is mostly in Sterling and the price of Oil is set in Dollars. As the Pound slumps the real cost of oil increases for companies who generate most of their revenue in Sterling.
All those clamouring for an interest rate cut to help mortgage holders and businesses need to remember that lower of IR's will put downward pressure on Sterling. As we are net importers of goods and materials this will only accelerate the high rates of inflation experienced. Those in debt will be tortured either on their loan repayments, or their lowering living standard caused by inflation, or by experiencing unemployment. You pays your money and takes your choice. A little of each is probably the Bank of Englands desire. Mr Brown would probably rather just see inflation as he can pass that off as being out of his control and a global event.
Either way, the years of millions of people living a lifestyle way way beyond their means in the UK is now over. Unfortunately, ski holidays, second homes, weekend breaks and exotic holidays were all part of that lifestyle. Which is the problem now about to confront Wannabes.
The name of the Wannabe game in the years to come will be longevity. Those that can hang around keeping their ratings current and actively seeking flying work will eventually make it. Those with high debt levels who need a job quickly will find themselves forced back into their offices or previous careers where their dreams of a flying career slowly die.
Unless of course people start using personal bankruptcy as a tool. Which they might. But then you can forget about any kind of flying training finance for many years to come.
Interesting times ahead, unfortunately.
WWW
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Jazzy78910
The offer of a 'job' is the classic line a school will use to lure keen, but somewhat naive wannabes such as yourself, in.
How can they offer you a job as an instructor when you haven't even started training, let alone got a professional licence? You may well be a complete numpty. Seriously, wake up man! It's a classic BS line !
And I'll reserve comments on your statement about an instructor being a 'bottom of the ladder job.' On second thoughts I wont. Insulting and arrogant spring immediately to mind.
The offer of a 'job' is the classic line a school will use to lure keen, but somewhat naive wannabes such as yourself, in.
How can they offer you a job as an instructor when you haven't even started training, let alone got a professional licence? You may well be a complete numpty. Seriously, wake up man! It's a classic BS line !
And I'll reserve comments on your statement about an instructor being a 'bottom of the ladder job.' On second thoughts I wont. Insulting and arrogant spring immediately to mind.
Spain in crisis as Europe crumbles
The economies of Germany, France and Italy all contracted in the first quarter and may now be in full recession, shattering assumptions that Europe would prove able to shrug off the effects of the credit crunch.
The picture is darkening so fast in Spain that Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero cancelled holidays and called his cabinet back to Madrid yesterday for the first emergency session of its kind since the Franco dictatorship. The crisis meeting...
Spain in crisis as Europe crumbles - Telegraph
Imagine if you will that a couple of Spanish airlines go bust this winter. Not a difficult thing to do given their crashing economy, slumping housing market and rocketing unemployment. Do you think those hundreds of experienced, jet rated pilots will:
a) Apply to Iberia and sit at home waiting for the phone to ring, or
b) Send their CV's to every airline in the UK that you were hoping to apply to
The JAA license only came into existence this century and we have yet to see what difference it will make in a widespread recession. Given the average Brits lack of a second language and the nepotism prevalent in many other countries I can only think the difference will be that things will be worse this time.
WWW
The economies of Germany, France and Italy all contracted in the first quarter and may now be in full recession, shattering assumptions that Europe would prove able to shrug off the effects of the credit crunch.
The picture is darkening so fast in Spain that Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero cancelled holidays and called his cabinet back to Madrid yesterday for the first emergency session of its kind since the Franco dictatorship. The crisis meeting...
Spain in crisis as Europe crumbles - Telegraph
Imagine if you will that a couple of Spanish airlines go bust this winter. Not a difficult thing to do given their crashing economy, slumping housing market and rocketing unemployment. Do you think those hundreds of experienced, jet rated pilots will:
a) Apply to Iberia and sit at home waiting for the phone to ring, or
b) Send their CV's to every airline in the UK that you were hoping to apply to
The JAA license only came into existence this century and we have yet to see what difference it will make in a widespread recession. Given the average Brits lack of a second language and the nepotism prevalent in many other countries I can only think the difference will be that things will be worse this time.
WWW
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What's everyone so upset about?
A couple of things to be happy about:
- Aviation's experiencing a 'downturn', but it's still expanding! It's just not expanding as rapidly as everyone thought it would.
- There will still be plenty of job opportunities with BizJet companies - people with that much money won't be too bothered by how expensive it is.
- Surely the fact that there are fewer job opportunities is just an incentive to be really good? No bad pilots seems like a good thing to me.
Stop whining, it makes people feel sad
- Aviation's experiencing a 'downturn', but it's still expanding! It's just not expanding as rapidly as everyone thought it would.
- There will still be plenty of job opportunities with BizJet companies - people with that much money won't be too bothered by how expensive it is.
- Surely the fact that there are fewer job opportunities is just an incentive to be really good? No bad pilots seems like a good thing to me.
Stop whining, it makes people feel sad
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More Good News - Strong demad at TUI !!!!!
This is another bit of good news on top of the news that oil prices have dropped back substantially ...
BBC NEWS | Business | TUI enjoys strong holiday demand
Actually I think I may book a holiday - all these Telegraph - lets bring down the government and blame Mr Brown for everything - articles are getting me down
BBC NEWS | Business | TUI enjoys strong holiday demand
Actually I think I may book a holiday - all these Telegraph - lets bring down the government and blame Mr Brown for everything - articles are getting me down
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But it is the government namely Gordon Brown and associates that have hit UK plc in the groin. This is simply short term relief but the bigger, badder picture is one of pain, how much and for how long is another matter.
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- There will still be plenty of job opportunities with BizJet companies - people with that much money won't be too bothered by how expensive it is.
SAS grounded another 7 aircraft today as well
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The good new just keeps on coming
And coming on top of the good news that oil has fallen by greater that 25%
NOW AT ONLY $111.99 a barrel and that holiday bookings are booming we have another bit of good news
BBC NEWS | Business | Lenders cut more mortgage rates
Oh and exporters will relish the weaker pound which in turn will be good for jobs
The dollar is resurgent and Gold is down;
The dollar is dead ............. long live the dollar
NOW AT ONLY $111.99 a barrel and that holiday bookings are booming we have another bit of good news
BBC NEWS | Business | Lenders cut more mortgage rates
Oh and exporters will relish the weaker pound which in turn will be good for jobs
The dollar is resurgent and Gold is down;
The dollar is dead ............. long live the dollar
Last edited by RVR800; 15th Aug 2008 at 15:19.
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Imagine if you will that a couple of Spanish airlines go bust this winter. Not a difficult thing to do given their crashing economy, slumping housing market and rocketing unemployment. Do you think those hundreds of experienced, jet rated pilots will:
Vueling's share trading was suspended last year and now they have merged with Clickair to form a stronger partnership.
Your arguments of the recession destroying these airlines does not hold, they were destroying themselves long before the recession started.
Similarily, the argument that Italy is entering a recession is disturbing as Italy has been flirting with recession for the past 6 years and has gotten into one several times during that period.
The economies of Germany, France and Italy all contracted in the first quarter and may now be in full recession, shattering assumptions that Europe would prove able to shrug off the effects of the credit crunch.
That's a lie right there.
France's economic growth accelerated more than economists forecast in the first quarter as stronger exports more than offset weaker consumer spending. Gross domestic product in the euro region's second-largest economy expanded 0.6 percent from the previous quarter, when it grew 0.3 percent, national statistics office Insee said today in Paris. On a year on year basis the economy grew by 2.2% when compared with the first quarter of 2007.
German economic growth accelerated to the fastest pace in 12 years in the first quarter as companies stepped up spending on machinery and construction. Gross domestic product rose 1.5 percent from the fourth quarter, when it increased 0.3 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. That's the highest quarterly growth rate since the second quarter of 1996.
FRANKFURT, Germany, July 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Frankfurt Airport (FRA) recorded noticeable growth in the first half of 2008. From January through June some 26,265,335 passengers used the FRA global air
transportation hub - 2.2 percent more than in the same period last year.
Airfreight throughput at Germany's largest airport reached 1,047,681 metric tons in the first six months of 2008 - representing a 3.8 percent rise.
The number of aircraft movements at FRA in the same period remained
nearly unchanged at 241,646 takeoffs and landings. In contrast, accumulatedmaximum takeoff weights (MTOWs) continued to climb strongly by 2 percent to 14,056,442 metric tons. In view of FRA's capacity constraints, this development again reflected the trend - seen for many months - toward an increasing use of bigger aircraft on the available slots.
With 4,807,710 passengers served in June 2008 (-0.5 percent), activity
reached nearly the high previous year's level. At the same time, FRA recorded its busiest-ever June for airfreight: 177,520 metric tons handled in the reporting month represented a rise of 0.9 percent on the previous June record in 2007. In keeping with expectations, airmail declined by 4.1 percent to7,178 metric tons.
The number of aircraft movements at FRA remained steady in June: 41,994 takeoffs and landings represented a slight 0.2 percent year-on-year drop.
Nonetheless, accumulated MTOWs continued to climb in June to the new historic high of 2,442,379 metric tons, exceeding the previous record-June in 2007 by 1.1 percent.
The Fraport Group's six majority-owned airports registered a total of
36,624,192 passengers in the first two quarters of 2008 - 3.7 percent more than in the comparable period last year.
Antalya and Lima airports achieved the highest growth rates: Peru's Lima Airport (LIM) welcomed 3,970,741 passengers (up 14.6 percent) from January to June. Fraport's terminals at Antalya Airport (AYT) served 3,637,242 passengers, 9.5 percent more than in the same period in 2007. The summer travel surge also boosted traffic at the Group's airports in Bulgaria: Burgas Airport (BOJ) rose 0.6 percent to 485,533 passengers, while Varna (VAR) reported 444,070 passengers (up 2.7 percent) in the first half year. Only Frankfurt-Hahn Airport (HHN) registered a 5.8 percent drop to 1,823,852 passengers compared to the first half of 2007.
Cargo throughput at the Group's airports climbed 6.1 percent to 1,250,146 metric tons of airfreight and airmail in the first six months of 2008. In addition, aircraft movements at Frankfurt, Frankfurt-Hahn, Lima, Antalya, Burgas and Varna airports increased by 3 percent to 348,915 takeoffs and landings.
Print-quality photos of Frankfurt Airport and Fraport AG are available
free for downloading via the Internet at Fraport AG - Homepage (Menu: select Press Center > then Photo Service). For TV news and information broadcasting purposes only, we also offer free footage material for downloading via fraport.cms-gomex.com. ANR 25/2008 - July 11, 2008
transportation hub - 2.2 percent more than in the same period last year.
Airfreight throughput at Germany's largest airport reached 1,047,681 metric tons in the first six months of 2008 - representing a 3.8 percent rise.
The number of aircraft movements at FRA in the same period remained
nearly unchanged at 241,646 takeoffs and landings. In contrast, accumulatedmaximum takeoff weights (MTOWs) continued to climb strongly by 2 percent to 14,056,442 metric tons. In view of FRA's capacity constraints, this development again reflected the trend - seen for many months - toward an increasing use of bigger aircraft on the available slots.
With 4,807,710 passengers served in June 2008 (-0.5 percent), activity
reached nearly the high previous year's level. At the same time, FRA recorded its busiest-ever June for airfreight: 177,520 metric tons handled in the reporting month represented a rise of 0.9 percent on the previous June record in 2007. In keeping with expectations, airmail declined by 4.1 percent to7,178 metric tons.
The number of aircraft movements at FRA remained steady in June: 41,994 takeoffs and landings represented a slight 0.2 percent year-on-year drop.
Nonetheless, accumulated MTOWs continued to climb in June to the new historic high of 2,442,379 metric tons, exceeding the previous record-June in 2007 by 1.1 percent.
The Fraport Group's six majority-owned airports registered a total of
36,624,192 passengers in the first two quarters of 2008 - 3.7 percent more than in the comparable period last year.
Antalya and Lima airports achieved the highest growth rates: Peru's Lima Airport (LIM) welcomed 3,970,741 passengers (up 14.6 percent) from January to June. Fraport's terminals at Antalya Airport (AYT) served 3,637,242 passengers, 9.5 percent more than in the same period in 2007. The summer travel surge also boosted traffic at the Group's airports in Bulgaria: Burgas Airport (BOJ) rose 0.6 percent to 485,533 passengers, while Varna (VAR) reported 444,070 passengers (up 2.7 percent) in the first half year. Only Frankfurt-Hahn Airport (HHN) registered a 5.8 percent drop to 1,823,852 passengers compared to the first half of 2007.
Cargo throughput at the Group's airports climbed 6.1 percent to 1,250,146 metric tons of airfreight and airmail in the first six months of 2008. In addition, aircraft movements at Frankfurt, Frankfurt-Hahn, Lima, Antalya, Burgas and Varna airports increased by 3 percent to 348,915 takeoffs and landings.
Print-quality photos of Frankfurt Airport and Fraport AG are available
free for downloading via the Internet at Fraport AG - Homepage (Menu: select Press Center > then Photo Service). For TV news and information broadcasting purposes only, we also offer free footage material for downloading via fraport.cms-gomex.com. ANR 25/2008 - July 11, 2008
This morning I am enjoying the monthly Barnard Marcus property auction:
Barnard Marcus Auctions - Current Auction Guide Prices to current London and Nationwide auction lots
For anyone still in denial about the breathtaking depth and speed of the housing crash it would be a real eye opener. In previous post war recessions there has been a close positive correlation between the house price crash that preceded it and the size, shape and depth of the recession that inevitably follows.
Already in the last hour the following evidence has gone under the hammer:
Lot 15
(SOLD previously on 20/12/2006 for £250,000)
Flat Mallard Court, Flat 19, John Dyde Close, Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire, CM23 3BD
http://www.eigroup.co.uk/onlineaucti......68&l=509505
Lot 15: Sold £131,000
(A loss of -£119,000 in 20 months, -£5,950 a month, -47.6% decline)
Lot 37A is coming up in a minute:
Apartment 8, Block A, Pollard Street, Manchester, M4
Sold in 2004 for £208,250 and today, having been repossessed by that bespectacled singing idiot from the Halifax they are ASKING £85,000 for it... (59.2% off) What will they be bid I wonder?
There are literally hundreds of similar examples from up and down the country at this and other auctions over the past few months.
Its over. The Mortgage Equity Withdrawn lifestyles, the second holiday homes, the property is my pension, the Buy To Let millionaire dream, the rising equity clearing the credit card rescue. All gone.
Billions and billions of pounds worth of money is being DESTROYED. Spending will HAVE to reduce. The economy WILL shrink. In a major recession several airlines ALWAYS go bust.
Join the dots and work things out for yourselves. The media will put a positive spin on things all the way to the bottom.
WWW
Barnard Marcus Auctions - Current Auction Guide Prices to current London and Nationwide auction lots
For anyone still in denial about the breathtaking depth and speed of the housing crash it would be a real eye opener. In previous post war recessions there has been a close positive correlation between the house price crash that preceded it and the size, shape and depth of the recession that inevitably follows.
Already in the last hour the following evidence has gone under the hammer:
Lot 15
(SOLD previously on 20/12/2006 for £250,000)
Flat Mallard Court, Flat 19, John Dyde Close, Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire, CM23 3BD
http://www.eigroup.co.uk/onlineaucti......68&l=509505
Lot 15: Sold £131,000
(A loss of -£119,000 in 20 months, -£5,950 a month, -47.6% decline)
Lot 37A is coming up in a minute:
Apartment 8, Block A, Pollard Street, Manchester, M4
Sold in 2004 for £208,250 and today, having been repossessed by that bespectacled singing idiot from the Halifax they are ASKING £85,000 for it... (59.2% off) What will they be bid I wonder?
There are literally hundreds of similar examples from up and down the country at this and other auctions over the past few months.
Its over. The Mortgage Equity Withdrawn lifestyles, the second holiday homes, the property is my pension, the Buy To Let millionaire dream, the rising equity clearing the credit card rescue. All gone.
Billions and billions of pounds worth of money is being DESTROYED. Spending will HAVE to reduce. The economy WILL shrink. In a major recession several airlines ALWAYS go bust.
Join the dots and work things out for yourselves. The media will put a positive spin on things all the way to the bottom.
WWW
UK Estate agents with homes, houses & property for sale on rightmove.co.uk
(Previously Sold on 31 Jul 2006 for £194,995) 109 Hansby Drive, Speke, Liverpool,Merseyside L24 9LW Semi-Detached (New build) 3 bed, garden, driveway and garage:
Just went under the hammer for........... £91,500, -53%
Do you see why banks are running out of money? That £103,495 that just went up in smoke before your eyes was loaned by them to someone who is now very probably protected by the bankruptcy courts.
Now multiply this by a thousand. Then double it. The double it again. And then you're not even close to what is going up in smoke every month at property auction.
We are about one third of the way into this.
Protect yourselves.
WWW
(Previously Sold on 31 Jul 2006 for £194,995) 109 Hansby Drive, Speke, Liverpool,Merseyside L24 9LW Semi-Detached (New build) 3 bed, garden, driveway and garage:
Just went under the hammer for........... £91,500, -53%
Do you see why banks are running out of money? That £103,495 that just went up in smoke before your eyes was loaned by them to someone who is now very probably protected by the bankruptcy courts.
Now multiply this by a thousand. Then double it. The double it again. And then you're not even close to what is going up in smoke every month at property auction.
We are about one third of the way into this.
Protect yourselves.
WWW
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Oil Prices
Approaching $100 a barrel
House prices are still rising in many areas although some areas they have taken a bit of a knock Speke - good time to buy
Camden
Average Cost: £721,750
Detached: £2,846,382
Semi-detached: £2,127,246
Terraced: £1,240,781
Flat: £530,235
Change in last quarter: 13.1%
Change in last year: 34.1%
House prices are still rising in many areas although some areas they have taken a bit of a knock Speke - good time to buy
Camden
Average Cost: £721,750
Detached: £2,846,382
Semi-detached: £2,127,246
Terraced: £1,240,781
Flat: £530,235
Change in last quarter: 13.1%
Change in last year: 34.1%
No, WWW has been telling it like he's been seeing it all along. Now he is right, those who doubted must be feeling just a little foolish.
I agreed with him from the start but for some reason, many have stuck their stupid heads in the sand and pretended we were all immune. The housing crash hasn't even got going as far as i'm concerned. It's not just a crash, it's also a correction. Over inflated prices driven by easy money from the banks, lending like there was no tomorrow and estate agents getting greedy and keen to over value property. ???
There's a storm a comin' and it ain't here yet.
THERE IS NO UPTURN, NO MATTER WHAT THE OIL PRICE DOES RIGHT NOW.
I agreed with him from the start but for some reason, many have stuck their stupid heads in the sand and pretended we were all immune. The housing crash hasn't even got going as far as i'm concerned. It's not just a crash, it's also a correction. Over inflated prices driven by easy money from the banks, lending like there was no tomorrow and estate agents getting greedy and keen to over value property. ???
There's a storm a comin' and it ain't here yet.
THERE IS NO UPTURN, NO MATTER WHAT THE OIL PRICE DOES RIGHT NOW.
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Helicopter pilots, typical!
From the funny Dave Gunson:
(I'm afraid i'm a bad example of when you're on leave and meet some mates in the pub at lunchtime and have too much London Pride then think posting on PPRuNe is a good idea!
Here to be cheerful!
From the funny Dave Gunson:
Never understood why they don't just screw themselves into the ground!
(I'm afraid i'm a bad example of when you're on leave and meet some mates in the pub at lunchtime and have too much London Pride then think posting on PPRuNe is a good idea!
Here to be cheerful!