Ok, I'm seriously worried now.. DOWNTURN
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Location: Location:
Age: 53
Posts: 1,110
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
G-spot. Are you afraid someone will cut in front of you in the line?
I've said my £0.02, I'm off back to usual forum
Last edited by G-SPOTs Lost; 8th Feb 2008 at 18:04. Reason: removed particularly offensive comment about homeless/jobless oxford "grads" cleaning my windscreen at traffic lights
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: london
Posts: 171
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I wouldn't be too worried about a downturn if I were you. I started my training during one and now have a well paid job. There will always be a shortage of experienced pilots. And as long as there are humans on this planet people will always want to travel its like eating and looking for somewhere to put your head at night. My advice to you is to go for it.
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 51
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I have been in aviation for quite a long time (started in 1990), there has never been a good time to start. This business is just uncertain full stop, and it goes in cycles. I think aviation probably has peaked this time around, and there will probably be less jobs next year.
I think the question you should be asking is if you want a career in a rather uncertain industry that is very sensitive to economic trends etc. If so, then I think now is as good time as any to start.
And don't believe the flying schools, they have always predicted an enormous pilot shortage 'next year'!!
I think the question you should be asking is if you want a career in a rather uncertain industry that is very sensitive to economic trends etc. If so, then I think now is as good time as any to start.
And don't believe the flying schools, they have always predicted an enormous pilot shortage 'next year'!!
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: London
Age: 48
Posts: 25
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
mcgoo
mcgoo,
I based my statement regarding N.A. from his input responded to on a previous DOWNTURN thread. Pardon me for not wanting to turn this thread into a school yard scrap... I want people's opinion's about the question's I asked not whether I should rent out Wallstreet, get myself a Gordon Gecko 3 piece and discuss whether I should buy buy buy or sell sell sell... Have I gone a little astray from the point of the thread or the context of my original question's !!!!!
Again, I'll repeat this is my future career, at my age I don't think i'll get a second chance. The feedback and some P.M.s have been very useful to date. I'd like to keep it that way...... If I sound grumpy, I am....
"Greed is good my friends......" Mr Gordon Gecko 1985.....
T.M.
I based my statement regarding N.A. from his input responded to on a previous DOWNTURN thread. Pardon me for not wanting to turn this thread into a school yard scrap... I want people's opinion's about the question's I asked not whether I should rent out Wallstreet, get myself a Gordon Gecko 3 piece and discuss whether I should buy buy buy or sell sell sell... Have I gone a little astray from the point of the thread or the context of my original question's !!!!!
Again, I'll repeat this is my future career, at my age I don't think i'll get a second chance. The feedback and some P.M.s have been very useful to date. I'd like to keep it that way...... If I sound grumpy, I am....
"Greed is good my friends......" Mr Gordon Gecko 1985.....
T.M.
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Canada
Age: 46
Posts: 253
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The downturn over the next couple of years wouldn't worry me - it'd would probably make me train cheaper and slower and pay more attention to a backup career, but I think there will be job growth around by 2010-12.
what has swayed me against aviation as a career is the long term future for cheap oil. Just this week Chevron announced that they're only replacing 15% of their reserves despite massive increases in exploration investment. For the industry as a whole it's 75% - that's unsustainable - the cheap stuff is running out. I just can't see that the world has enough cheap oil to sustain a viable career for someone in their 20's early 30's and I don't want to be the first out of a career in a time of global recession. It's sad and I'd love someone to prove me wrong.
But hey - it's Friday afternoon and spring is just round the corner!
WWW: that's isn't 'Shark Point" in western australia by any chance? Watch out - it's called Shark Point for a reason - one of them came within about 3ft of 'avin my leg off a couple of years ago.
what has swayed me against aviation as a career is the long term future for cheap oil. Just this week Chevron announced that they're only replacing 15% of their reserves despite massive increases in exploration investment. For the industry as a whole it's 75% - that's unsustainable - the cheap stuff is running out. I just can't see that the world has enough cheap oil to sustain a viable career for someone in their 20's early 30's and I don't want to be the first out of a career in a time of global recession. It's sad and I'd love someone to prove me wrong.
But hey - it's Friday afternoon and spring is just round the corner!
WWW: that's isn't 'Shark Point" in western australia by any chance? Watch out - it's called Shark Point for a reason - one of them came within about 3ft of 'avin my leg off a couple of years ago.
Join Date: May 2003
Location: uk
Posts: 713
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: AMS
Posts: 374
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Hello TM.
When I started my training, I was older than you and single. Completing studies in 2001 was not the best of times, but this is unpredictable. There seems to have been a peak now, which is usually followed by a downturn of several years, but again, this is unpredictable.
People do a JAA PPL only for sentimental reasons, as you loose it when you do the CPL from the same authority.
I do believe the path you are considering of doing a PPL followed by groundschool may be a suitable one: Do a PPL during your holidays preferable in the US (this PPL allows you to fly in Europe and is valid for life, is sufficient to start the JAA ATPL, remains current with minimum effort / expense). Then do a JAR ATPL groundschool part time (why in one of the most expensive countries in Europe - If you know no other language, then there are still plenty other countries - Bristol groundschool comes to mind with a German FTO in Croatia, which would be a place to keep the wife happy too).
So by that time it is 2009 and you have spent money from your income only. Now relax, sit back with the wife and reevaluate. - I can imagine the stress this would have been, had I been in a relationship at the time: First job in Southern Africa, followed by Eastern Europe, South America, Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa. (Now happily back home.) This does not have to go the same way for you, but once you are committed (when the real money starts: hour building + CPL, that's where you cannot afford compromises. - Can your wife support you financially from home or will she move around with you without a job and friends, living in your hotel room while you do what you love?
Good luck with whatever yous decide! IP
When I started my training, I was older than you and single. Completing studies in 2001 was not the best of times, but this is unpredictable. There seems to have been a peak now, which is usually followed by a downturn of several years, but again, this is unpredictable.
People do a JAA PPL only for sentimental reasons, as you loose it when you do the CPL from the same authority.
I do believe the path you are considering of doing a PPL followed by groundschool may be a suitable one: Do a PPL during your holidays preferable in the US (this PPL allows you to fly in Europe and is valid for life, is sufficient to start the JAA ATPL, remains current with minimum effort / expense). Then do a JAR ATPL groundschool part time (why in one of the most expensive countries in Europe - If you know no other language, then there are still plenty other countries - Bristol groundschool comes to mind with a German FTO in Croatia, which would be a place to keep the wife happy too).
So by that time it is 2009 and you have spent money from your income only. Now relax, sit back with the wife and reevaluate. - I can imagine the stress this would have been, had I been in a relationship at the time: First job in Southern Africa, followed by Eastern Europe, South America, Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa. (Now happily back home.) This does not have to go the same way for you, but once you are committed (when the real money starts: hour building + CPL, that's where you cannot afford compromises. - Can your wife support you financially from home or will she move around with you without a job and friends, living in your hotel room while you do what you love?
Good luck with whatever yous decide! IP
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 51
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The problem with becoming a pilot is that you are investing some 60-70k into obtaining skills that are essentially non-transferable. The only thing you can do with a pilots license is to fly airplanes, hence if there are any problems on the job market then it is not so easy to move on to a different type of job. Therefore I would recommend maintaining some other skill set on the side of your aviation career if you can, lots of pilots do.
I think aviation will always be there, it is essential ingredient to a strong economy, and I can't see us traveling by boat to Australia, but I think the days of low cost city hopping may be counted. Fuel prices keep going up exponentially and the environmental issue is not going to go away any time soon. Even if aviation is not the biggest threat to the environment it is a much debated issue, putting pressure on politicians to raise taxes etc.
My guess is that aviation will stagnate next year, but will probably recover in a couple of years again. However, I am not certain it is a viable alternative for the long term future.
I think aviation will always be there, it is essential ingredient to a strong economy, and I can't see us traveling by boat to Australia, but I think the days of low cost city hopping may be counted. Fuel prices keep going up exponentially and the environmental issue is not going to go away any time soon. Even if aviation is not the biggest threat to the environment it is a much debated issue, putting pressure on politicians to raise taxes etc.
My guess is that aviation will stagnate next year, but will probably recover in a couple of years again. However, I am not certain it is a viable alternative for the long term future.
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: England
Posts: 149
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Just Qualified
The decision to go down this road is a very difficult and serious one. I decided five years ago to go for it, at the modular pace, as I was nearly laughed out the door by the HSBC bank manager in Redhill. Last week I passed my Multi IR in the UK, having funded the whole thing while working full time, with 2 periods of unpaid leave thrown in. My partner (wife to be) was always very supportive, but did grow tired of the process and very occasionally reminded me of the sacrifices she was was making as well. Passing the multi Ir at Bournemouth filled me with joy for about 2 days, and picking up licence with Rating from CAA three hours after I dropped it off was icing on cake. THEN the reality began to sink in. All the contacts I have made in the industry (numerous) so far are saying if you want to walk into an airline job, consider a type rating. (this old debate) Opinionless. I simply cannot afford a type rating. I have been investigating the air taxi option as I would happily do that. I would position post-maintenance singles/twins back to base. Aerial photography. Pleasure flights. Volunteering to be a safety pilot. Pilot's assistant. I did start my PPL with visions of sitting in a 757 a couple of years later. Most of us do I presume, and a few of us do land those positions. I suppose all I am saying is, yes, go for it. You only live once. Better to regret the things you do than the things you didn't do. But be under no illusions about the potential delays, massive increases in predicted costs, stress to partner, loss of income, and desperate feeling I am feeling at moment wondering where to find that first lucky break.
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: 22
Posts: 31
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Downturn I thought the industry was heading to a boom!?!l As far as I've seen and by the simple logic more people = more customers 
, It's the safest and fastest way of travel!
"Airbus predicted that the trend of worldwide air travel doubling every 15 years would continue"
That's what I've been hearing lately and the shortage of pilots(mostly from aviation schools & companies) but that's some how true, from 10 students 3 might choose to become pilots and only one will eventually continue until the end, That's exactly what i saw happened many people applied few passed the tests then even fewer continued due to the high expenses and uncertainty.
I can't think of another career and I'd rather to snuff it, to do myself in(to die peacefully) than to go back to the uni and study something that I don't like Downturn or not I'm gonna start my training.
Good Luck to you All
, It's the safest and fastest way of travel!"Airbus predicted that the trend of worldwide air travel doubling every 15 years would continue"
That's what I've been hearing lately and the shortage of pilots(mostly from aviation schools & companies) but that's some how true, from 10 students 3 might choose to become pilots and only one will eventually continue until the end, That's exactly what i saw happened many people applied few passed the tests then even fewer continued due to the high expenses and uncertainty.
I can't think of another career and I'd rather to snuff it, to do myself in(to die peacefully) than to go back to the uni and study something that I don't like Downturn or not I'm gonna start my training.
Good Luck to you All
Look. I want you all to achieve your dreams. But a lot of you do not understand what happens to this industry when the economy enters a recession. It is much worse than many of you think.
Its just a friendly warning.
WWW
Its just a friendly warning.
WWW
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: EU
Posts: 961
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
all this sound strange, 1 company contacted me, and told me they will pay me( a lot) if I come for the interview.(please don't PM me, I will not answer, just look at my profile))
then I got from another big big company' letter, which contacted me for an interview too
.
so downturn?, maybe, maybe not?but if you want stay on the safe side, keep your money and go modular, so if things go bad or very bad , you are not in deep s....
then I got from another big big company' letter, which contacted me for an interview too
.so downturn?, maybe, maybe not?but if you want stay on the safe side, keep your money and go modular, so if things go bad or very bad , you are not in deep s....
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: Ireland
Posts: 627
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The one thing, I would say to anyone considering becoming a professional pilot is to put away any misty eyed notions of it being a 'dream' or 'vocation'. It's not, it's a job, at best a profession. So you have to consider like any other job whether it be hairdresser/quantity surveyor/callcentre operater (sorry sales executive). You get training then you get a job, usually starting at the bottom. Once you are working as pilot, instructing, para dropping whatever you can look to the next step. Once you earn money off flying, you have achieved the 'dream'. You are a pilot. You go from there. I have detected recently the attitude among some people that unless you get straight into the right seat of some jet or other with 300 hours, then you're a failure.
What I'm saying is if you want to become a professional pilot. Then go for it. You might not get a highly paid flying job immediately after training (or ever). You will probably get a lowish paid job, initially. You might have to travel further away than the UK to find work. Failing that, you must have had some kind of career before you took the plunge. You can go back to that and wait out the downturn.
It's just a job. If you wanted to be a Doctor or something else like that you would have to commit a similar amount of time and money to train for it too.
One thing though, you need to keep the wife onside. That means, she has no illusions about tough this can be. Mine is a brilliant but had her moments.
But in the end I got my first job when the boss rang me and offered me my first flying job over the phone without meeting me. It happens!
What I'm saying is if you want to become a professional pilot. Then go for it. You might not get a highly paid flying job immediately after training (or ever). You will probably get a lowish paid job, initially. You might have to travel further away than the UK to find work. Failing that, you must have had some kind of career before you took the plunge. You can go back to that and wait out the downturn.
It's just a job. If you wanted to be a Doctor or something else like that you would have to commit a similar amount of time and money to train for it too.
One thing though, you need to keep the wife onside. That means, she has no illusions about tough this can be. Mine is a brilliant but had her moments.
But in the end I got my first job when the boss rang me and offered me my first flying job over the phone without meeting me. It happens!
Registered User **
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Posts: 149
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
all this sound strange, 1 company contacted me, and told me they will pay me( a lot) if I come for the interview.(please don't PM me, I will not answer, just look at my profile))
then I got from another big big company' letter, which contacted me for an interview too.
then I got from another big big company' letter, which contacted me for an interview too
.
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: ABZ
Posts: 220
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I'm thinking of starting training in the next couple of months, possibly autumn.
We are not yet in a recession. The fact is no one knows whether the US etc. will enter the technical definition of a recession and if so, its severity - not to mention the effect on other regions of the world.
How long would a recession last? Its effects typically take time to make themselves felt, but the airline industry usually feels the full blast first which in some ways is a good thing.
The structure of the airline industry has changed significantly in the US, Europe and now other regions of the world. Low-cost airlines and US-EU Open Skies have created new opportunities (and pitfalls).
Asia is increasingly becoming an industrial and financial-services powerhouse. It may yet escape the worst ravages of any recession elsewhere.
No one knows. We only know life is finite.
Follow your dreams, take a leap - just have that parachute ready.
We are not yet in a recession. The fact is no one knows whether the US etc. will enter the technical definition of a recession and if so, its severity - not to mention the effect on other regions of the world.
How long would a recession last? Its effects typically take time to make themselves felt, but the airline industry usually feels the full blast first which in some ways is a good thing.
The structure of the airline industry has changed significantly in the US, Europe and now other regions of the world. Low-cost airlines and US-EU Open Skies have created new opportunities (and pitfalls).
Asia is increasingly becoming an industrial and financial-services powerhouse. It may yet escape the worst ravages of any recession elsewhere.
No one knows. We only know life is finite.
Follow your dreams, take a leap - just have that parachute ready.