Banks and loans - credit crisis?
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Are banks muppets?
Ok, so i have just managed to secure myself an unsecured loan for 35K to complete my modular training. Now I know this is probably not enough and yes I know I am getting myself into serious debt but hey I am 38 and just don't have the time to save tens of thousands of pounds. So remember is it possible, yes it is!! just make sure that you have a good credit rating an outstanding business case and a fantastic loans manager - and anything is possible. Lets hope getting that first job is this achievable!
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Oops-go back to Financial Analysis 101
Originally Posted by bri1980
Not sure about small lenders but I'm told Northern Rock are cheap. Not looked into it though!
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Agreed... there a fair chance that the cost of these loans (if they are even still available) could go up significantly.... a run on a UK bank.... very very serious events that will have big knock on impacts.... I would think very very carefully about getting into debt at what could be the top of the economic cycle... house prices now starting to fall as well... 
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house prices now starting to fall
... I purchased my apartment in July '07 and a neighbour has sold an apartment that is pretty much identical for £10k more 2 weeks ago? I know I had a good deal (£5k cheaper due to not using an agent) but that still shows a £5k increase in 4 months. Slowing down it might be but no signs of dropping in value.Back on subject ... Do you think Northern Rock will offer some good loans in a couple of months time to try and temp their customers back? I'd be happy to take an unsecured loan with them to pay for my training if it was cheap enough
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At the mo they are offering rather good rates for Fixed Deposits (I just got well over 6.5% market rate) not sure how long it will take for them to get square enough on the books before they start trying to sell loans.
Camel Toe
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Camel Toe
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Back on subject ... Do you think Northern Rock will offer some good loans in a couple of months time to try and temp their customers back? I'd be happy to take an unsecured loan with them to pay for my training if it was cheap enough
As an HSBC employee my only regret is that such large organisations are driven by statistics rather than looking at each individual case.
Car insurance is the same, if an insurer has 3 Ford Mondeos (for example) and no claims, you get a low premium, if one claims then the stats show that the claims rate for that car is 33%, so up goes the premium, approach another company with only one car and no claims =- cheap premium again.
Would be much better if each case was dealt with on its merits rather than the trend in the marketplace, which will be influenced by the few who declare themselves bankrupt - now at the expense of the many.
Getting loans for training is going to get a LOT harder and more expensive.
House prices are falling and probably will fall substantially and this removes the source of funding for at least half of all Wannabes (either releasing their own or parents equity).
There may be fewer training in the near future or possibly just more on the Modular path.
However, the real story is the looming recession and it effects on airline hiring. Airlines tend to lead in and out of recessions.
The music *may* be about to stop...
WWW
House prices are falling and probably will fall substantially and this removes the source of funding for at least half of all Wannabes (either releasing their own or parents equity).
There may be fewer training in the near future or possibly just more on the Modular path.
However, the real story is the looming recession and it effects on airline hiring. Airlines tend to lead in and out of recessions.
The music *may* be about to stop...
WWW
Yep, except you don't have to leave this country if you want to fly for peanuts.
WWW
WWW
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There may be fewer training in the near future or possibly just more on the Modular path.
However, the real story is the looming recession and it effects on airline hiring. Airlines tend to lead in and out of recessions.
However, the real story is the looming recession and it effects on airline hiring. Airlines tend to lead in and out of recessions.
Less competition the better I say ... But competition for what if the airlines don't take anybody on in 4/5 years time? 
That's the problem.
The ideal is to train at the end of the downturn so as to be perfectly placed for the upturn when hiring begins again.
The trick is to be able to predict either the up or the down turns.
I think this is the downturn. I may be wrong.
WWW
The ideal is to train at the end of the downturn so as to be perfectly placed for the upturn when hiring begins again.
The trick is to be able to predict either the up or the down turns.
I think this is the downturn. I may be wrong.
WWW
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If I save for 3 hard years I'll have all the £'s and $'s to do my 0-fATPL without having to look into CDL's or personal loans. (looking at doing an 18 months stint as a CFII in the states) so in 4 or 5 years time I should have the licences / hours / life experience (I'll be 30) but not too old.
How can I predict the industry in 5 years time? I forget the cycle is it 5 years or 7 years?
If however I need to start training today then an unsecured loan and a CDL might just be what I need. But if the market is dry in 2 years time then I'll have a big debt and no flying job.
How can I predict the industry in 5 years time? I forget the cycle is it 5 years or 7 years?
If however I need to start training today then an unsecured loan and a CDL might just be what I need. But if the market is dry in 2 years time then I'll have a big debt and no flying job.
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Bit of a question for Wee Weasley Welshman...
Hello all.
Just before the summer I was seriously considering embarking on the integrated ATPL route. In light of the current credit crunch, I’m starting to panic about what impact it will have on my chances of getting a job at the end of the 14-16 months of training (assuming one starts in the new year).
Sorry if I’ve pinpointed you WWW, but you’re a man in the know and for the most part give out (in my opinion) honest and sound advice. I was wondering if you would be prepared to enlighten us with your thoughts (even a few lines) on how the current events are likely to impact flight training/hiring. If the aviation industry is teetering on the brink of a recession it is nothing short of scary just how precise and expected it has come.
Obviously anyone’s thoughts are more than welcome (knudge knudge Scroggs).
All the best.
Just before the summer I was seriously considering embarking on the integrated ATPL route. In light of the current credit crunch, I’m starting to panic about what impact it will have on my chances of getting a job at the end of the 14-16 months of training (assuming one starts in the new year).
Sorry if I’ve pinpointed you WWW, but you’re a man in the know and for the most part give out (in my opinion) honest and sound advice. I was wondering if you would be prepared to enlighten us with your thoughts (even a few lines) on how the current events are likely to impact flight training/hiring. If the aviation industry is teetering on the brink of a recession it is nothing short of scary just how precise and expected it has come.
Obviously anyone’s thoughts are more than welcome (knudge knudge Scroggs).
All the best.
I've no more insight or understanding than the next man in the street though I do have an interest in economics and I think I do understand the airline recruitment market. I could be right or I could equally be wrong, but, here goes.
I think that around half of people putting themselves through flight training use either parents or their own housing equity to fund it. I think that nominal house prices will now not rise and indeed will probably decrease by at least 10% over the next year. This would turn off the tap for 50% of flying training funding. Sure some people (or parents) still have substantial reserves in their houses but even so, they will be much more reluctant to release and spend what they have without the comfort that the house 'has gone up' another £50k this year.
Banks will also be much more reluctant to extend CDLs and other unsecured loans.
Therefore the effect will be reduced numbers applying to flying training schools and an increased interest in the cheaper Modular route.
This may be countered to a small degree by the numbers of people who lose their job via redundancy in the recession that will accompany the house price crash. Many people use redundancy as a spur to finally pursue that dream of a flying career and the redundancy payment provides the means. In nearly all cases these people will be the older wannabes.
As for the airlines and their hiring, well that is difficult. If there is a recession then there are dozens of barely profitable airlines or start ups with limited funding who would all go to the wall. It is a European market and so the likes of Alitalia going bust or SAS going into administration directly impacts the UK wannabe market and its impossible to make predictions about the 300 or so airlines operating in the UK. Safe to say though that any recession will see at least a total freeze in hiring. With the main Integrated schools of the UK alone pumping out 400 new pilots a year then backlogs are quickly generated.
Lessons from history can be useful. In 1989 the UK was booming much in the way it was in 2006. Airline hiring was going full pelt and chief pilots were scouring the nations flying schools looking for anyone with a CPL and a pulse (not quite but it was getting a bit desperate). Then the Gulf War happened and there was a recession in the UK and oil prices rocketed.
By late 1990 Air Europe and Dan Air had gone bust (please, I know this is a simplification but we don't have the room nor Wannabes the interest to go into detail) and pilots were forming queues at soup kitchens. Many left these shores to new opportunities in the far east and later the middle east. Things were really grim and it took until 1996 for things to get back to an even keel.
Sept 11th proved to be a mini version of this but was greatly diminished in its impact by the breakneck expansion of the low cost airlines in the years following it. Such expansion is still in play but it is slowing and will slow to a trickle within the next 4(ish) years.
Making a decision to train is ALWAYS a gamble and carries risk. A lot depends on your personal circumstances. There have certainly been worse times than to go and do your training. There have certainly been better times.
Good luck,
WWW
I think that around half of people putting themselves through flight training use either parents or their own housing equity to fund it. I think that nominal house prices will now not rise and indeed will probably decrease by at least 10% over the next year. This would turn off the tap for 50% of flying training funding. Sure some people (or parents) still have substantial reserves in their houses but even so, they will be much more reluctant to release and spend what they have without the comfort that the house 'has gone up' another £50k this year.
Banks will also be much more reluctant to extend CDLs and other unsecured loans.
Therefore the effect will be reduced numbers applying to flying training schools and an increased interest in the cheaper Modular route.
This may be countered to a small degree by the numbers of people who lose their job via redundancy in the recession that will accompany the house price crash. Many people use redundancy as a spur to finally pursue that dream of a flying career and the redundancy payment provides the means. In nearly all cases these people will be the older wannabes.
As for the airlines and their hiring, well that is difficult. If there is a recession then there are dozens of barely profitable airlines or start ups with limited funding who would all go to the wall. It is a European market and so the likes of Alitalia going bust or SAS going into administration directly impacts the UK wannabe market and its impossible to make predictions about the 300 or so airlines operating in the UK. Safe to say though that any recession will see at least a total freeze in hiring. With the main Integrated schools of the UK alone pumping out 400 new pilots a year then backlogs are quickly generated.
Lessons from history can be useful. In 1989 the UK was booming much in the way it was in 2006. Airline hiring was going full pelt and chief pilots were scouring the nations flying schools looking for anyone with a CPL and a pulse (not quite but it was getting a bit desperate). Then the Gulf War happened and there was a recession in the UK and oil prices rocketed.
By late 1990 Air Europe and Dan Air had gone bust (please, I know this is a simplification but we don't have the room nor Wannabes the interest to go into detail) and pilots were forming queues at soup kitchens. Many left these shores to new opportunities in the far east and later the middle east. Things were really grim and it took until 1996 for things to get back to an even keel.
Sept 11th proved to be a mini version of this but was greatly diminished in its impact by the breakneck expansion of the low cost airlines in the years following it. Such expansion is still in play but it is slowing and will slow to a trickle within the next 4(ish) years.
Making a decision to train is ALWAYS a gamble and carries risk. A lot depends on your personal circumstances. There have certainly been worse times than to go and do your training. There have certainly been better times.
Good luck,
WWW
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It is possible my good man, you just can't live like a rockstar while saving. That's not to say you have to live like a loner, I have a social life (girlfriends cost money), play hockey a couple of times a week (match fees) and am able to save up just fine and dandy.
Maybe the Stella Monkey is stealing all your money while you sleep on a Saturday night, sometimes he visits me too and gets away with a bit.
Camel Toe
"Over Macho Grande"
Maybe the Stella Monkey is stealing all your money while you sleep on a Saturday night, sometimes he visits me too and gets away with a bit.
Camel Toe
"Over Macho Grande"
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lovezzin said:
lovezzin - As an engineer you should consider this route:- work for 2 years in the UK, earning & saving. By then you'll have sufficient education & experience to go to Canada as a "temporary skilled worker". Once here, whilst working full-time in engineering for another 2 years, do all your licenses and ratings, most of the training expenses will be tax-deductable, you'll be looking at a ball-park figure of £15000 when the tax-rebate is included. Spreading all the training over a couple of years whilst working full-time will be hard but certainly not impossible. Then return to the UK to convert to JAA (you could prepare for the writtens via distance learning whilst keeping your job in Canada), rough cost of conversion will be £10-12,000 and take 6-12 months. That way the only loan you'll have to take will be the last £10-12k and even that will be unlikely if you're working as an engineer out here.
Time taken: 4-5 years
Total debt: minimal to nothing
-------------------------
Edited to add: Actually, my comments above are probably mis-leading. I wouldn't advocate the Canada-UK approach on price alone since the exchange rate is currently not in your favour and the additional cost of converting back to JAA would put you on a level cost with going modular entirely in the UK. The main advantage of training in Canada is the ease with which to train whilst working full-time and hence the tax-deduction for the training (combined with relatively cheap cost-of-living and higher engineering salaries than the UK).
Ok, for all of you talking about saving up for 2, 3 or even upto 5 years and then starting your training (supposing you are in an averagely paid job) how is it possible to save £55K+ in that time??
Time taken: 4-5 years
Total debt: minimal to nothing
-------------------------
Edited to add: Actually, my comments above are probably mis-leading. I wouldn't advocate the Canada-UK approach on price alone since the exchange rate is currently not in your favour and the additional cost of converting back to JAA would put you on a level cost with going modular entirely in the UK. The main advantage of training in Canada is the ease with which to train whilst working full-time and hence the tax-deduction for the training (combined with relatively cheap cost-of-living and higher engineering salaries than the UK).
Last edited by v6g; 17th Sep 2007 at 21:12.
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Ok, for all of you talking about saving up for 2, 3 or even upto 5 years and then starting your training how is it possible to save £55K+ in that time??
I agree to the principle, but its not possible.
I am only 21, I atteneded an £18,000+ Boarding school along with 2 my sisters. where I also worked hard and got excellent A-Levels to go to a TOP 10 univeristy to study Aeronautical Engineering. Worked my ass of even harder whilst there so that when i graduate i can atleast work in aerospace somehow, whilst thinking engineering is high status and well-paid. Boy was i wrong.
You went to a TOP 10 University like most of us who achieved decent grades.
You're an engineer which does/can pay well in contracting. I know many of them - £50k+ per year isn't uncommon.
The salary is on the higher end of grad engineering jobs of just over £23K. I cant see it rising much in 5 years...so how is it possible to save this money you speak of after the cost of life?
... I have tried my best to cut my costs right down;
- I have cancelled my £55 a month Gym fee.
- I have lowered my mobile phone bills by not using my mobile too often.
- I sold my car (Misti Evo VII 360) that was depreciating and guzzled fuel (12 to 16 mpg) for a cheap economical car (Seat Ibiza) that I'll probably sell for the same price I purchased it at.
- I hardly ever eat out.
- A big plus is I'm pretty much T-total so no weekend benders with the friends and blowing £80 / £120 on a Sat night.
someone also mentioned to a 21 year old about contracting...how is a 21 year old gonna go into contracting with ****-all experience/qualifications?
I only have one thing in my sights!
... If I have to sell my apartment then so be it.Don't want to be mean but if your parents paid £18k for you to attend a boarding school they should ask for their money back - 'upto' is two words, and so is 'atleast', not to mention your grammar and spelling
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Originally Posted by AlphaMale
- I have cancelled my £55 a month Gym fee.
- I have lowered my mobile phone bills by not using my mobile too often.
- I sold my car (Misti Evo VII 360) that was depreciating and guzzled fuel (12 to 16 mpg) for a cheap economical car (Seat Ibiza) that I'll probably sell for the same price I purchased it at.
- I hardly ever eat out.
- A big plus is I'm pretty much T-total so no weekend benders with the friends and blowing £80 / £120 on a Sat night.
Bri
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Here's your evidence house prices are falling from the Royal Institute of Chartered surveyors... http://www.rics.org/Property/Residen...007_130907.htm
Also you might have noticed the City has been hit very very hard by the current bank crisis/liquidity crunch (I have had the joy of sitting in the middle of it).... there will be big lay-offs by banks and limited bonuses that have supported the London housing market over the past 3-4 years.
I think WWW is right that we are probably at or slightly past the peak in pilot recruiting in this cycle
Also you might have noticed the City has been hit very very hard by the current bank crisis/liquidity crunch (I have had the joy of sitting in the middle of it).... there will be big lay-offs by banks and limited bonuses that have supported the London housing market over the past 3-4 years.
I think WWW is right that we are probably at or slightly past the peak in pilot recruiting in this cycle