I've no more insight or understanding than the next man in the street though I do have an interest in economics and I think I do understand the airline recruitment market. I could be right or I could equally be wrong, but, here goes.
I think that around half of people putting themselves through flight training use either parents or their own housing equity to fund it. I think that nominal house prices will now not rise and indeed will probably decrease by at least 10% over the next year. This would turn off the tap for 50% of flying training funding. Sure some people (or parents) still have substantial reserves in their houses but even so, they will be much more reluctant to release and spend what they have without the comfort that the house 'has gone up' another £50k this year.
Banks will also be much more reluctant to extend CDLs and other unsecured loans.
Therefore the effect will be reduced numbers applying to flying training schools and an increased interest in the cheaper Modular route.
This may be countered to a small degree by the numbers of people who lose their job via redundancy in the recession that will accompany the house price crash. Many people use redundancy as a spur to finally pursue that dream of a flying career and the redundancy payment provides the means. In nearly all cases these people will be the older wannabes.
As for the airlines and their hiring, well that is difficult. If there is a recession then there are dozens of barely profitable airlines or start ups with limited funding who would all go to the wall. It is a European market and so the likes of Alitalia going bust or SAS going into administration directly impacts the UK wannabe market and its impossible to make predictions about the 300 or so airlines operating in the UK. Safe to say though that any recession will see at least a total freeze in hiring. With the main Integrated schools of the UK alone pumping out 400 new pilots a year then backlogs are quickly generated.
Lessons from history can be useful. In 1989 the UK was booming much in the way it was in 2006. Airline hiring was going full pelt and chief pilots were scouring the nations flying schools looking for anyone with a CPL and a pulse (not quite but it was getting a bit desperate). Then the Gulf War happened and there was a recession in the UK and oil prices rocketed.
By late 1990 Air Europe and Dan Air had gone bust (please, I know this is a simplification but we don't have the room nor Wannabes the interest to go into detail) and pilots were forming queues at soup kitchens. Many left these shores to new opportunities in the far east and later the middle east. Things were really grim and it took until 1996 for things to get back to an even keel.
Sept 11th proved to be a mini version of this but was greatly diminished in its impact by the breakneck expansion of the low cost airlines in the years following it. Such expansion is still in play but it is slowing and will slow to a trickle within the next 4(ish) years.
Making a decision to train is ALWAYS a gamble and carries risk. A lot depends on your personal circumstances. There have certainly been worse times than to go and do your training. There have certainly been better times.
Good luck,
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