If that's the case, this aeroplane approached low and fast, pulled up into a barell roll with nothing like enough height to complete, and dived into the ground near - vertically off the exit. According to a very credible non-pilot witness.

That may or may not have happened. I don't know. I wasn't there. If I had been, as an aerobatic pilot, I'm pretty sure I could positively confirm or deny that analysis. If it had spun in, I think I'd recognise that as well and be a credible witness for AAIB.

But in the past (not this accident, where the witness evidence seems remarkably consistant) eye-witness reports of accidents have all sorts of contradictory evidence - the aeroplane broke apart in the sky or it didn't, it was on fire before impact or wasn't. Often, the shock of seeing something as tragic confuses the memory. A post-flight fire becomes a pre-flight fire, it spun left, or it spun right, etc.

I have witnessed three fatal accidents, all at airshows, and in each case I was aware, long before the watching public, that the display aeroplane was doomed (it's to do with rate and angle of descent, speed, and possibility of recovery in the space available). In all 3 cases, as a pilot what happened was immediately obvious (one was a barrell roll into the ground, one was a loop into the ground, the other was a spin off a stall turn, with all the preceeding horrid loss of stability). In all instances, the evidence of non-pilot witnesses varies from pretty accurate to miles off.

Also, pilots tend to stop what they are doing and watch the entire passage of an aeroplane, so they tend to see the entire accident sequence. Non-pilot witneses tend only to look up if the sound is unusual - and might see the final few seconds and not what (vitally) lead up to the tragedy. The consistency of non-pilot evidence at Colwich might be becuase the aeroplane was said to be unusually low prior to the accident sequence, so more people looked up.

SSD

Actually Mike, he may have read the site after reading the post I put on this thread ( Link below),

I looked when the Pilots name was announced as I had a gut feeling his address would be present (which it was)and posted that his address was on the site and that it may be a good idea for the CAA to remove it on the hope that someone from the CAA may have read this thread and concurred it would of been a good Idea.
After all the press visit here and the last thing his poor family need is a load of press on their doorstep at this moment in time,I did not post a link to the site or mention it's name for that very reason, but as It is generally known in the indusrty, he may have looked after I mentioned it and been appalled at seeing the CAA's rather uncaring response. To simply of removed the address or even to have taken the page down temporarily would have shown some tact for a short perid, especially as the other occupants had not been identified at the time, If I unintentionally through my post caused some distress I apologise, but it was done for all the best reasons at this time of extreme sadness.

http://www.pprune.org/private-flying...rdshire-3.html

What a stupid comment by cessna-kevin below:

"how many people really mean "my thoughts go out to the family" or waffle on about the incident without knowing the facts?"

Of course people's thought's go out to those affected?! In fact, it's probably the first thing most people think!

vabsie, sorry to seem to contradict you. You are judging others by your own moral code and expecting them to behave in a certain manner. A manner in this case of aviation accidents from your own personal affinity as an aviator.

As callous as it sounds I would ask the same question. Tens of thousands of men, women and children die every day through accident disease, starvation, murder and conflict. I wonder if your thoughts go out to everyone of them as well (if so then I raise my hat as you are truly a saint) or do you just fail to even acknowledge that death toll as do most normal people? So why should an aviation crash be any different? Again it may sound callous but I personally can't make the connection that you are demanding towards people I have never met which is why I refrain from offering thoughts and condolences because it strikes me as hollow and false if I can't also react the same way to every death on the planet.

I am however always curious to see if there are lessons to be learnt from any incident that may save another life in the future.

Just something to think about.

Thanks Bose-X I take your point, and no, of course my thoughts cannot go out to everyone out there, but, I am passionate about aviation (althought not nearly as experienced as probably most of you). Perhaps my slight fear of flying means I feel more for those involved in an air accident and the people around them. So, from my point of view when someone on the Forum says their thoughts go out to the families involved I take it as just that and unlike cessna-kevin don't see any reason to read more into it. I personally cannot see any reason to try and score brownie points from anybody on an Internet Forum - Again maybe because I don't fully understand this business like some of you do.

Let's just get back to speculation.

Low wing PA28 offering poor views downstairs.

So perhaps a steep tight turn that goes wrong?

They can't....

But was there a risk of entry into IMC, in this case?

A small proportion of AAIB reports over the years have said something like "here's the evidence, here's the possibilities - we don't really know, but the least likely explanation is..."

Much as we'd like it, you can't know everything. Providing the ability to know everything after an accident, might well price GA out of existence, so shouldn't necessarily be pursued.

G

Genghis the Engineer. Copied; many thanks.

IO540. In my hypothetical case, VMC but becoming "instant IMC" once the windscreen frosts over. I have vivid memories of last Autumn, landing on a runway heading 270 just before sunset. It was CAVOK but may as well have been IMC through the fly spattered windcreen.

Sorry for the thread drift.

Pilotmike

I was tempted to ignore the two posts you addressed to me, as inflamatory words like "voyeuristic" and "ghoulish" hardly help support any rational argument. But I found your last post speculative and bombastic, so in an attempt to set the record straight, let me assure you that there was nothing more sinister in my actions than Nutloose has correctly surmised.

Here's what happened. I read Nutloose's post. I thought his suggestion that the pilot's address be (temporarily) removed from the CAA website was a good one, and simply wanted to see if it had been done.

I was disappointed that it hadn't, but was even more surprised that, instead, someone had found the time to update the details in the way I described. Perhaps my use of the word "Speechless" was a bit sensationalist and for that I am happy to apologise.

You have, however, surmised the following (I don't know how to do the "quote thingies"):

"By contrast, beatnik has done the complete opposite by:
1 Going to look specifically for information about the victim
2 Checking for changed status to deceased
3 posting the information here, drawing its availability to a wider audience
4 expressing shock at OTHER people's actions!"

1 - False : I wasn't specifically looking for info on the victim - I have no interest in that information - as explained, I was following up on Nutloose's post to see if the info had been removed to protect the pilot's family from unwanted press intrusion.
2 - False : I wasn't checking to see if the status had been changed to deceased (I didn't even know the CAA do that) - I was just shocked that it had, and at how quickly it had been done, all on a Sunday.
3 - I accept your point on this one - but I gave no further details as to existence of the site than others on this forum have previously presented.
4 - To quote Nutloose again, it was a case of me being "appalled at the CAA's uncaring response". It has nothing to do with someone doing their JOB, because I find it hard to believe that it is someone's job to go in and update this type of information without forms being filled in, before changes are made to the website - which is why I take some offence to your comment that "It was his breathtaking hypocrisy with his self-righteous indignation at the CAA doing their job". I'll use an absurb example to try and make my point: I own a plane, and then decide to move house. News of my move and my new address (for some reason) is reported on Sky News. Would someone in the CAA go in and change my address details? No - I don't think they would.

Pilotmike, I have no further wish to perpetuate this argument, and so I can only hope you understand what prompted me to post my comment in the first place. If not, I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree.

Hmmm, I don't 'buy' any of the theories so far belched up by the assembled wise men and women of Pprune. There's just too little to go on, especially when bearing in mind the dangers of relying on so-called witness evidence.

Aerobatics at low-level is hardly new, but in this case, no. I imagine the media would have picked up on any 'show-of' style flying. Misty or iced up windscreen? If I had one I wouldn't be flying at low level. Would you? Would the poor deceased? We don't know. Let's wait for the AAIB.

I'm not particularly bothered by ghoulish investigations though. Some people do it; others just think it. Hardly new on Pprune anyway. I've learned to ignore it and look for the sensible posts.

I don't think expressing condolences is offensive either. I've cried many a tear on Remembrance Sunday and I don't know anyone who died on the Somme or last week in Helmand Province. It's still very sad and deserved more comment than is routinely dished out by the Celebrity-obsessed Media.

'Instant IMC' can occur (GBZ I know what you mean, although you state VMC).

Years ago I had been on a training exercise at relatively high level and then descended the cold soaked aircraft into more humid conditions. The canopy immediately froze over and visibility was zero. The instructor explained the situation and flew on instruments until the frost melted in warmer air lower down.

So this could be a possibility.

After all cold soaked jet aircraft can have ice on the wings in sunny Spain during turnaround if the conditions are conducive to icing, so it's not a wild assumption. Just depends on the conditions - which at the time of this accident I'm not aware?

There can be no proof, as other people have stated, just a possibility.

I can't help but think that the outcome of the enquiry will be just that - a list of possibilities, maybe exacerbated by the state of the aircraft at the time.

KR

FOK

That's a good point actually. A not entirely unlikely scenario (variations thereof one has already come across in incident reports involving commercial air traffic in the guise of ADC failures), and good of you to point it out--regardless of the primary subject of this thread, that's a good reminder of a kind of situation we could find ourselves in someday.

Out of interest, what would your actions be (assuming pilot capable of IR flight)? Pitot heat on, alt. static, fly power settings if needed until speed and alt indications reliable, and get vectors for a safe descent below the freezing level?

Ouch! - I wouldn't have thought of the alt static. I would now.

It would take an awful lot to block up the static vents with ice. They are not "in" the airflow as such.

And GPS altitude would be perfectly fine, in place of the altimeter, for getting back down somewhere. I've got a yoke mounted Garmin 496; this has four corners and in each you can have a user configurable parameter, and I selected altitude to be one of these. Very handy as a gross error check on the altimeter QNH setting.

Also, your horizon (AI) is not going to stop working so together with the altimeter one can still fly the plane.

Anyway, I am not sure how this is applicable to the incident flight, which appears to have gone wrong at a very low level.

Reading a few comments here are a few points :)

Yes people die every day of the week on the roads and hardly get more than a couple of lines in the local press, or a few bunches of flowers attached to the nearest street lamp.

In numbers we are a minute group compared to motorists and compared to a road crash an aircraft crash is news.

As pilots we are a small bunch in a small world and our hearts go out to a fellow aviator.

Its more than that. We are vulnerable and any fatal aircraft crash highlights that vulnerability.
We all want to know that our fellow pilot was an accident waiting to happen, that his aircraft was a heap of junk waiting to fall apart.

The last thing we want to know is that a good pilot in a good aircraft crashed and died because then we think that could be us on our next jolly.

That is a deep tucked away fear that lies with us all.
Any tragic accident brings that fear boiling up to the surface.
We have to talk about it, disect it, anylyse it and put it right in our minds so that those fears can be tucked away and we can carry on doing what we love doing.

As to this accident dont expect the AAIB to come to a conclusion an answer.
The wreck site was a pile of dust so intense was the impact. There is hardly likely to be enough bits to determine an airframe failure. So they like us are likely to come up with "possibilities" or a stringed together list of known events which allows you to come to a conclusion.

They will look at all the witness reports to see how they each tie in with one another and hopefully come to some sort of answer but maybe by then we will all have tucked that fear away and wont be that interested anyway.

Pace

By the time the report comes out, this accident will be all but forgotten.

Presumably there will be a radar track; I hope the plane was Mode C equipped. This may give a clue to what they were generally up to before the crash.
I don't think I'd worry about that at all, myself. A working plane with a working pilot isn't just going to suddenly plummet vertically downwards. Something very weird happened here. I bank on getting an engine failure one day - hopefully not in one of the inconvenient places where I sometimes find myself - and on any number of instrument or other system failures, but a plane just suddenly plummetting? Not really. Not in VMC for sure. This one is weird.

Incidentally, was the pilot one of the two parents who died, or were the parents the passengers?

10540

I refer back to the Biggin Hill Citation crash an aircraft that I have flown and which crashed with a pilot I knew.

Why should such an aircraft with a capable pilot come down with an engine out from literally a cruise situation when I have gone around on test flights on one engine with gear and flaps hanging down on a simular aircraft with no problems. The Citation can handle an engine out with ease.

At one point there was talk of a multiple bird strike. Okay that made sense a one off not likely to happen again. That Theory was discounted, heart drops :( and so on.

We as pilots want to know because it makes no sense and we want to make sense of non sense.

With the PA28 Pilot if he was doing something stupid or fooling around then thats OK because we can easely avoid the same?

If this guy was found to be doing low level semi aerobatics then in our minds thats ok we can avoid it.

If It was a failure to a good pilot in a good plane then thats harder to come to terms with. We want to know that cannot or will not happen to us. Its as simple as that.

The Bravado, the joking, the finger pointing, the chest beating happened all the time in the second world war to fighter pilots.
It was a coping method used by pilots who knew their chances of coming back were not good.

In our day when we are unlikely to be shot out of the sky we want to know what can shoot us out of the sky and its not guns.

This was NOT an iced up screen, this was not a spin to the ground. It was a high speed high rev dive into the ground which was either pilot error, airframe/control failure or pilot incapacitation.

Whatever my heart goes out to the poor guy at the controls and the other occupants of that aircraft because their joyous flight turned into a nightmare for them and their relatives and friends with tragic consequences.


Pace

Thanks Pace, you've perfectly summed up the value of such speculation.