Okay, if this is a rumour network, what possible causes do we suspect given the witness accounts?

One witness said the aircraft engine was going full tilt so I hardly suspect carb icing. Any cloud about in the area today? Severe airframe icing might lead to loss of control and might account for the impression another eyewitness gave of it "looking like it was doing aerobatics" (witnesses often describe a spin as looking like "aerobatics") and another said it rolled over and went in, leaving little doubt those on board would get out alive.

Sounds to me like the aircraft had totally lost control, the engine still running would indicate perhaps a stuck throttle, which in itself might lead to loss of aircraft control only if the pilot could not trim adequately and stop the pitch up tendancy. Or perhaps an inability to reduce power might suggest they were in a spin and unable to physically reduce power as per spin recovery....

Clouting railways power cables would suggest they were not attempting a standard forced landing without power otherwise they'd have been aiming for somewhere else if rule 5 was being adhered to and we have no reason to suspect it wasn't.

Or maybe inadvertant flight into IMC led to loss of control?

Or pilot incapacitation?

Basically, we don't have a clue.

But one positive outcome from this event and PPRuNe is that we might stop and contemplate a few scenarios which may just lead to us being safer up there in the future. If I go, please speculate freely.

My condolences to those affected in this tragic accident.

VFE.

Don't bother speculating
 

"Okay, if this is a rumour network, what possible causes do we suspect given the witness accounts? "

Speculating, in my opinion, based on observations of similar accidents, is a waste of time. Don't trust "eyewitnesses" - stick them in front of a TV camera, or a reporter, and they say any old rubbish.

Be patient, wait for the facts, once the dust has settled, and make an informed judgement if you wish, but you will be wasting your time if you attach any credence to early "eye witness" reports.

Even with AAIB reports I shall be making no "judgements"... there but for the grace of God. My thoughts are that stimulating conversation about any accident never does any harm if people can leave their emotions outside and refrain from jumping to possibly offensive conclusions about the causes. I seek not to know sepcifically what happened in this or any accident by posting here, merely to put the metophorical wet dog on the table and let it shake itself - surely that's a positive thing?

VFE.

a sad start to a New Year . . . . .
 

Nitpicking, I know . . . . but there should be a "not" in there.

What a dreadful way to start the 2009 GA year :ugh:

Modelman and Mike P, a little something to balance things up; a young, university student friend of mine was on the train which was delayed. On hearing the reason for the delay her comment to her parents was words to the effect that what had happened really put the inconvenience of the delay into perspective.

> Sounds to me like the aircraft had totally lost control, the
> engine still running would indicate perhaps a stuck throttle,
> which in itself might lead to loss of aircraft control only if
> the pilot could not trim adequately and stop the pitch up
> tendancy.

In a 140?

Ok, so that's rather flimsy...

VFE.

Some posts above are plumbing profound new depths of idiotic hypothesis.

Better to keep your mouth shut and perhaps be thought a fool than open it and remove the doubt.

The one I listened to on the television seemed quite a serious sort, spoke clearly and didnt appear to be making anything but a factual statement of what he saw.

That was that the aircraft dropped a wing and then went into an almost vertical dive into the ground.

The wreckage would appear to be a high speed impact, the engine sound would indicate high speed too.

Why? is the bit that I would not like to speculate on because there could be numerous reasons from aircraft failure to pilot error, incapaciation etc.

All we do appear to know is the aircraft impacted at high speed and out of control. A very sad start to the year for us and an awful nightmare start to the year for for their family and friends.

Pace

The 215 forecast for 12:00 didn't look favourable from an icing point of view.

Does any body know what the actual WX was for this area at the time of the accident?

Media now confirming one of the deceased as Alan Matthews and having 19 years experience. Mr Matthews was the owner.

RIP. Condolences to family, friends and colleagues....

Deffo a high-speed near-vertical impact (very compact wreckage area and total airframe destruction). A very credible witness on BBC news described what looked like a 'roll / loop' into the ground, which fits the pictures of the accident site.

So, unlikely to be carb heat or a wire-strike in a precautionary landing (though it did slice the wires on the railway as it went in).

I have a couple of likely theories, but that's all they are, so I'll keep them to myself for now. But a bit of imagination and a bit of looking at past accidents will show what these might be.

What a terrible start to '09.

SSD

The aircraft was not based at Shobdon to my current knowledge.

Deepest sympathy and thoughts at this painful time for the families of those lost.

Pumpkin. People do not necessarily pump out rubbish when placed in front of a camera etc. I witnessed [and videod] a fatal collision at Oshkosh 18 months ago. I gave a TV interview, and a newspaper one, simply because I was asked to. I have,sadly, witnessed 11 crashes over the years at Airshows. When I saw the footage when I got back home, [some numpty put it on U Tube] I was amazed at how much I got wrong. Shock and unfamiliarity play a big part in what people say, and for sure the information can be faulty many times, but not always rubbish. The journo was unsensationalist, polite and asked very sensible questions.

Heard them say on the news this am they believe they have found a third body :(

They have also named the pilot on the news.

RIP :( Not a good start to the year.

I wonder...
 

...every time there is a crash and if relatives come on this site, they will be upset because the reg of plane has been publsihed; or people wonder what happened and to whom; or whether the thread has broken down into a massive row about what is appropriate and how bad somebody is for putting some information up.

If it was my relatives, that would be the bit that upset me...

Human nature dictates that we speculate to the reason.
Some of us verbally speculate here and on other places, some don't.

It is a sad start to 2009 and my thoughts lie with the people concerned.

Jon

Oh dear, VFE...
Your posts have conveniently removed all doubt - YOU clearly don't have a clue.
More importantly, now you've speculated freely, please do us all a favour and go.

It is always best to put yourself in someone elses shoes. If it was me i would be perfectly happy with pilots discussing possible scenarios for my accident in a sensible considered and respectful way and I am sure so would my family and friends.

I would not be happy with someone jumping to conclusions, being judge and jury and saying things as if they were fact rather than one of many possible situations which could have caused such a crash.

I would also not be happy to see some using my misfortune as a play thing to massage their own egos or to prove their superior knowledge.

But if my crash and disussions about it could help others to avoid something simular then I for one would be delighted.

Pace

Thought provoking .....
 

A good thought, Bigfoot. I wonder why bereaved relatives might come here, and what they might be hoping to find, or not to find. Of similar concern might be friends or family hearing a news report and desperate to find out whether their friend or loved one was involved. How do we meet the needs of those for whom it is reassuring news, as well as the hopefully few for whom it is not?

My condolencies to all of those that died in this sad and horrific crash......

Now one of the bereaved has been identified, perhaps the CAA would have the good sense to remove his address from the *-**** site until all of those others involved have been informed and identified..... :ugh:

A Sad day and something the CAA should look at as well.

Site name removed so as to prevent the morbid and press linking to it, but those involved in flying should know what I mean.