UK GA 2015 versus 1985
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UK GA 2015 versus 1985
I wonder if anyone could give me a feel for whether GA is busier today than 30 years ago?
Are there more licenses being issued - does it feel buoyant or it on the wane?
Are there more licenses being issued - does it feel buoyant or it on the wane?
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I think it must have shrunk down. I have been flying at Biggin Hill since 1973. The flying clubs that have gone are -- Biggin Hill Flying Club, King Air flying club, South London Flying club, Flairavia, Wemair, Newair, Sportair, Original EFG ( experimental flying group ), Airtouring. The only originals are Surrey and Kent, Alouette, plus the revamped EFG owned by Singh.
It used to be the case of at least ten aircraft in the circuit with the slower ones on the inside and faster ones on the outside and we used both the grass and tarmac and had the use of runway 25/07 as well.
To see an executive jet was something special, now they are the most common sight at Biggin Hill.
I think it is a generation thing --- young boys and girls are not so interested in flying, so the take up is less and with the cost of fuel and maintenance, landing fees it is not surprising with young ones are also struggling to buy a house. It is exactly the same with classic cars, not one person in my office of over hundred knows anything about how to maintain a car -- generation thing not interested and anyway when you open the bonnet of a modern car it is all electronic and covered by a plastic box.
It used to be the case of at least ten aircraft in the circuit with the slower ones on the inside and faster ones on the outside and we used both the grass and tarmac and had the use of runway 25/07 as well.
To see an executive jet was something special, now they are the most common sight at Biggin Hill.
I think it is a generation thing --- young boys and girls are not so interested in flying, so the take up is less and with the cost of fuel and maintenance, landing fees it is not surprising with young ones are also struggling to buy a house. It is exactly the same with classic cars, not one person in my office of over hundred knows anything about how to maintain a car -- generation thing not interested and anyway when you open the bonnet of a modern car it is all electronic and covered by a plastic box.
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I can't speak for the UK at all, though I can say that in Canada, there has been a visible reduction in "activity" at the smaller GA airports since I started flying in the mid '70's. The flying club where I learned to fly was, and remains one of Canada's most active. They are the only flying club in Canada to own their own airport, which is very nice. During my training, if the circuit got too busy, they would simply close the airport to non members for that part of the day. I'm not aware of that happening in recent decades. I stopped in there on a very nice day last summer, there was activity, but nothing like what i had remembered from earlier times. Other local airports are quiet of even closed, though the remaining airports can handle the more compressed "fleet".
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Hard data is hard to come by, but some is available.
As a starter: some statistics from the UK CAA with respect to registered aircraft and with respect to issued licenses (includes renewals).
W.r.t. aircraft registered, it shows a healthy growth in microlights and a recent decline in typical spamcan-type aircraft, albeit after a better growth up to 2008, so still an increase compared to 1985.
W.r.t. licenses, the format reported has changed, as have the license categories, so it's not obvious to get a like-for-like comparison. But there is a decline.
Neither of these seem to be the 'off the cliff' and 'death of GA' which seems to be often referred to, but a clear decline nevertheless.
And, of course, they do not tell how many hours are flown.
Mayday/PAN events may serve as an indicator either of fewer emergencies or of reducing activity - but then again, this would show an increase.
Individual airfields (and LARS units, I assume) track their movements and would be a better measure of 'busy-ness' , but I don't know whether such data are ever made public or where to look for them. Ditto for the hours flown which are part of the info provided for the medicals.
I'd love to hear if there are other public sources of data out there ...
(Other countries probably publish similar information as the UK CAA, I'd think)
B.
As a starter: some statistics from the UK CAA with respect to registered aircraft and with respect to issued licenses (includes renewals).
W.r.t. aircraft registered, it shows a healthy growth in microlights and a recent decline in typical spamcan-type aircraft, albeit after a better growth up to 2008, so still an increase compared to 1985.
W.r.t. licenses, the format reported has changed, as have the license categories, so it's not obvious to get a like-for-like comparison. But there is a decline.
Neither of these seem to be the 'off the cliff' and 'death of GA' which seems to be often referred to, but a clear decline nevertheless.
And, of course, they do not tell how many hours are flown.
Mayday/PAN events may serve as an indicator either of fewer emergencies or of reducing activity - but then again, this would show an increase.
Individual airfields (and LARS units, I assume) track their movements and would be a better measure of 'busy-ness' , but I don't know whether such data are ever made public or where to look for them. Ditto for the hours flown which are part of the info provided for the medicals.
I'd love to hear if there are other public sources of data out there ...
(Other countries probably publish similar information as the UK CAA, I'd think)
B.
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I got my licence in '84 and from my perspective the GA/light aircraft scene is definitely busier now than it was in !985 although having said that it is also not as busy now as it was 10years ago say 2005'ish.
So I guess it depends on what era you use as a starting point....
So I guess it depends on what era you use as a starting point....
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According to the figures here:
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport..._1986_2013.pdf
Total non-commercial movements is down from 1,171,000 in 1986 to 694,000 in 2013. I suppose this doesn't give the whole picture but it doesn't paint a pretty picture!
http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/80/airport..._1986_2013.pdf
Total non-commercial movements is down from 1,171,000 in 1986 to 694,000 in 2013. I suppose this doesn't give the whole picture but it doesn't paint a pretty picture!
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Almost all flight information services publish their flight movements statistics, but not in Big Data format ;-), so one has to dig into the mud of numbers. Comparing 1985 to 2015 all European countries I had a quick look at, had a cut of these non-commercial movements over whole period to about half.
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While the economic climate has an effect on GA the effect of EASA has been far greater than we ever expected.
Part M maintenance has added a lot of extra paperwork, the FCL rules have added so much complication that most people have trouble with keeping leagal.
All in all EASA has taken the most restrictive rules from all the member states and added some more and called it law. The result of this is less flying, more expense and less safety.
I Guess it gives us some standardization....... its dragging the north european accident up to that of southern europe! I can see how that has some sort of logic viewed by a paper pusher in Cologne.
Part M maintenance has added a lot of extra paperwork, the FCL rules have added so much complication that most people have trouble with keeping leagal.
All in all EASA has taken the most restrictive rules from all the member states and added some more and called it law. The result of this is less flying, more expense and less safety.
I Guess it gives us some standardization....... its dragging the north european accident up to that of southern europe! I can see how that has some sort of logic viewed by a paper pusher in Cologne.
Total non-commercial movements is down from 1,171,000 in 1986 to 694,000 in 2013. I suppose this doesn't give the whole picture but it doesn't paint a pretty picture!
From other CAA stats you can see that the number of PPLs issued last year was approximately half the number issued in 1995 let alone 1985.
GA has been desimated over the last 30 years and whilst econimics is responmsible for some, the European adventure has taken care of the rest and has not finished yet! If they have their way actrivity will halve again in another 3 years!
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I suspect, based on nothing more than a suspicion and some instructors anecdotes that it has declined
I think a problem faced is perception. I had my first lesson in 2010 and on turning up to a leaky portacabin, walking out to a faded, tatty 152 and hearing words like 'carburretor' made me wonder why I was risking my life on something so obviously dangerous and uncared for. A PPL friend explained a few things, recommended a tidier airfield with more cared for (albeit equally ancient) planes and I was soon hooked, and love my very tidy, well equipped almost new looking spamcan
We live in world of glitz and glamour, we all drive cars rarely older than 5-6 years, and expect instant gratification. Private flying doesn't compare favourably with these.
Also maybe society has moved in a bit from risk taking in hobbies. I mean, give massive amounts of time to get a licence, spend a fortune doing it and at the end of the day it can kill you ?
Sadly to an extent i worry this means the world has moved on (a little)from private flying.
I also wonder about the effect of austerity. I have mentioned to no-one other than my closest friends that I fly, and still fewer that I own an aircraft. Maybe a sad side effect of what the country has gone through is that we can no longer be proud of our achievements for fear of being seen as a bragger?
I think a problem faced is perception. I had my first lesson in 2010 and on turning up to a leaky portacabin, walking out to a faded, tatty 152 and hearing words like 'carburretor' made me wonder why I was risking my life on something so obviously dangerous and uncared for. A PPL friend explained a few things, recommended a tidier airfield with more cared for (albeit equally ancient) planes and I was soon hooked, and love my very tidy, well equipped almost new looking spamcan
We live in world of glitz and glamour, we all drive cars rarely older than 5-6 years, and expect instant gratification. Private flying doesn't compare favourably with these.
Also maybe society has moved in a bit from risk taking in hobbies. I mean, give massive amounts of time to get a licence, spend a fortune doing it and at the end of the day it can kill you ?
Sadly to an extent i worry this means the world has moved on (a little)from private flying.
I also wonder about the effect of austerity. I have mentioned to no-one other than my closest friends that I fly, and still fewer that I own an aircraft. Maybe a sad side effect of what the country has gone through is that we can no longer be proud of our achievements for fear of being seen as a bragger?
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What is the effect of more reliable microlights in the last 30 years? Perhaps there has been movement 'sideways' rather than out of flying?
Last edited by Viola; 14th Jan 2015 at 19:25. Reason: clarification
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"total non-commercial movements is down from 1,171,000 in 1986 to 694,000 in 2013. I suppose this doesn't give the whole picture but it doesn't paint a pretty picture! "
I think this is movements from licensed airfields and is probably misleading.
In the 1980's most movements were from licensed airfields. Back then my local licensed airfield was quite busy. There were few local strips and all had very few aircraft. The licensed airfield got steadily busy till around 2003. In the last 10 years the licensed airfield has become much less busy, we have had a large increase in strips and their are lots more aircraft based on them. Many more aircraft locally than in the 1980's.
Rod1
I think this is movements from licensed airfields and is probably misleading.
In the 1980's most movements were from licensed airfields. Back then my local licensed airfield was quite busy. There were few local strips and all had very few aircraft. The licensed airfield got steadily busy till around 2003. In the last 10 years the licensed airfield has become much less busy, we have had a large increase in strips and their are lots more aircraft based on them. Many more aircraft locally than in the 1980's.
Rod1
Whopity said:
We can argue about the various causes forever, but I think that says it all. 
MJ
From other CAA stats you can see that the number of PPLs issued last year was approximately half the number issued in 1995 let alone 1985.
MJ
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In my case, fingers crossed then that in 5-10yrs there will be companies willing to subsidize people who are willing to train for their commercial licence and have a job lined up if successful.
In my opinion the above is another reason why the lack of way through to CPL/ATPL without a cheaper path will also impact PPL/GA because most think it too expensive, not worth it, simply not interested or generally cannot afford it!
But i really to believe if their was a certified subsidized career path there would be a fairly noticeable increase in PPL's.
Tris
In my opinion the above is another reason why the lack of way through to CPL/ATPL without a cheaper path will also impact PPL/GA because most think it too expensive, not worth it, simply not interested or generally cannot afford it!
But i really to believe if their was a certified subsidized career path there would be a fairly noticeable increase in PPL's.
Tris
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As very few GA airfields report movements the reality is probably far worse that these stats show.
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Chickenhouse.
The question is: What is an airfield?....Few pilots now fly from the traditional type of airfield in the UK due to the costs of having an aircraft based there. Generally only flying schools plus a few groups exist at such airfields now although they may be visited by all and sundry on the occasional breakfast burger run.
By far the majority of pilots I know fly and base their aircraft at a farm strip and no collation of flight movements is taken from farm strips. Usually there is a movements book at these strips which is generally filled in on a casual basis or not filled in at all sometimes by pilots.
The question is: What is an airfield?....Few pilots now fly from the traditional type of airfield in the UK due to the costs of having an aircraft based there. Generally only flying schools plus a few groups exist at such airfields now although they may be visited by all and sundry on the occasional breakfast burger run.
By far the majority of pilots I know fly and base their aircraft at a farm strip and no collation of flight movements is taken from farm strips. Usually there is a movements book at these strips which is generally filled in on a casual basis or not filled in at all sometimes by pilots.
Last edited by Shoestring Flyer; 15th Jan 2015 at 15:27. Reason: Spelling
One of the major problems with a decreasing PPL population is that PPL training is where future commercial instructors gain the necessary experience. With the EASA split between recreational flying (LAPL); PPL and commercial training there is a major problem looming; the cost of qualifying just as an FI has risen to the point where many are deterred, without the additional expence of adding instrument and ME qualifications necessary for coventional CPL/IR instruction. The supply of commercial instructors is rapidly drying up!
