GA Flying...is it safe ?!
Re Genghis' statistics, it depends whether the risk of an accident in any given year is independant of the probability in any other year.
If independant, the probability of NOT having an accident is (for 1 in 400)399 in 400, so the chance of not having an accident in 20 years is 99.75 raised to the 20th power (or about 95%). For 1 in 2000, close to 99%.
I suspect Genghis is a good enough engineer to actually know that, and was simplifying the argument for pilots to understand, but that's another discussion..........
Dangerous stuff statistics - worse than flying.
If independant, the probability of NOT having an accident is (for 1 in 400)399 in 400, so the chance of not having an accident in 20 years is 99.75 raised to the 20th power (or about 95%). For 1 in 2000, close to 99%.
I suspect Genghis is a good enough engineer to actually know that, and was simplifying the argument for pilots to understand, but that's another discussion..........
Dangerous stuff statistics - worse than flying.
This subject comes up here every few years and the comparison with motorcycling always arises. A number of years ago, 'Pilot' magazine had an interesting article which investigated this very subject. Conclusion ? Private flying carries approximately the same risk as motorcycle racing.
Happy now ?
Happy now ?
More people die in bed than in aeroplanes or on motor-bikes.
OK, perhaps it would be slightly less than that because the bold pilots would all die young and the less bold pilots would benefit from their great wealth of experience to fly better and safer than they do now. However, at the current rates, flying is way more dangerous per hour than sleeping, and way more dangerous per mile than driving.
The other difference is that most people who die in their sleep are almost always reasonably old. People who die flying are almost by definition healthy and active, often with dependants. It's a very different thing for your heart to stop whilst you're asleep in bed aged 80, or to auger in aged 30 leaving small kids behind.
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I think that people like myself who get very hung up on safety like to feel that by knowing everything we possibly can, we wrest back control from fate.
One Life, Live it.....
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My PPL instructor, now a friend, is a career instructor, who recently celebrated his 15,000th hour (in a Turbulent!). He has never had an injury from flying, despite several real FLs, in fact his only accident was in a car, and wasn't his fault.
He enjoys aeros and other fun flying, sometimes in extreme conditions.......but he does everything with complete professionalism. He not only knows every part of an aeroplane, he knows its phone number and address as well. He knows all the checklists by heart so when you miss one he'll tell you and where in the list it should have been. He knows all the paperwork, and he can tell excatly what the weather is going to do......in fact, I think he tells the weather what it's going to do!
I've known him for ten years and he is the model for my flying career. We are but humble PPLs, but we can make our flying professional.
He enjoys aeros and other fun flying, sometimes in extreme conditions.......but he does everything with complete professionalism. He not only knows every part of an aeroplane, he knows its phone number and address as well. He knows all the checklists by heart so when you miss one he'll tell you and where in the list it should have been. He knows all the paperwork, and he can tell excatly what the weather is going to do......in fact, I think he tells the weather what it's going to do!
I've known him for ten years and he is the model for my flying career. We are but humble PPLs, but we can make our flying professional.
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The other difference is that most people who die in their sleep are almost always reasonably old. People who die flying are almost by definition healthy and active, often with dependants. It's a very different thing for your heart to stop whilst you're asleep in bed aged 80, or to auger in aged 30 leaving small kids behind.
I'm a firm believer that positive risk taking must be encouraged and failing to do so can actually harm your kids self confidence and development as an individual in a negative way. Kids that are able to see their parents happy and embracing their passion, such as flying, will in my opinion have a better start in life...
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If you don't want to risk leaving small kids behind, you will have to stop all your activities considered risky, not only flying.
edit: speeeling
Last edited by S-Works; 9th Jan 2012 at 12:35.
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One Life, Live it.....
As to the stats, 100% of us will become a cropper at some point. The risk in a light aircraft is low, my passengers don't need to know if this is going to be the most dangerous part of their day, but I let them know what could happen, and what they and I will do if it does.
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I'm a firm believer that positive risk taking must be encouraged and failing to do so can actually harm your kids self confidence and development as an individual in a negative way. Kids that are able to see their parents happy and embracing their passion, such as flying, will in my opinion have a better start in life...
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I'm pretty sure nimbyism and health and safety nonsense is caused by advancing technology and a growing population. Ease of living due to technology means people have more time to think about the little things (such as nimbyism) and a growing population means there are more people to do jobs associated with, or to think about, the little things (such as nimbyism). On top of that a high population density imposes possibly the largest restrictions on personal freedoms (i.e you can't have a runway there because... we don't like you/ it's too noisy/ it's bad for my cousins asthmatic dog)
A caveman didn't have time to worry about trip hazards in his cave, but if he wasn't spending all of his time on survival, and had lots of visitors from other caves he might just have invented hazard tape!
A caveman didn't have time to worry about trip hazards in his cave, but if he wasn't spending all of his time on survival, and had lots of visitors from other caves he might just have invented hazard tape!
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Absolutely. There's a great book by Warwick Cairns called 'How to live life dangerously' that puts these risks and perceived risks into perspective. As a famous Isle of Man TT racer says 'We're here for a good time not a long time' (or something similar).
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This discussion always fascinates me. You can go swim with the sharks, bungee jump, parachute jump, stand on a stingray, drown when your boat sinks, hit the odd pedestrian whilst driving, and yet a lot of people associate flying with death and danger
If the aeroplane is maintained to the correct degree and standard, you trust the shop doing the work
, you as the pilot have ensured that you are capable, up to date with ALL training/licence requirements, and you do not attempt to go 4 up, when the aeroplane can only take off with 2 up, do not fly in ice, and in general avoid the ground, then it is perfectly safe.
Those that adhere to most of the above, stand a better than average chance of surviving each trip. Those that dont, well....
As I go about my life, I feel less safe driving, less safe walking about busy streets, particularly as I watch a growing majority wandering about with headphones in, hoods up, and on the mobile, and much safer flying.
I would always prefer to be up there
If the aeroplane is maintained to the correct degree and standard, you trust the shop doing the work
, you as the pilot have ensured that you are capable, up to date with ALL training/licence requirements, and you do not attempt to go 4 up, when the aeroplane can only take off with 2 up, do not fly in ice, and in general avoid the ground, then it is perfectly safe.Those that adhere to most of the above, stand a better than average chance of surviving each trip. Those that dont, well....
As I go about my life, I feel less safe driving, less safe walking about busy streets, particularly as I watch a growing majority wandering about with headphones in, hoods up, and on the mobile, and much safer flying.
I would always prefer to be up there
Hey, go easy on me. I'm most of the way through my PPL. I came to this via hang-gliding. I used to go climbing and scuba diving. I'm expecting a child soon and my solution to that conundrum has been to get life insurance. The other part, I hope, will be to not die anyway.
I'm not arguing that people shouldn't accept an element of risk; just that people should be honest with themselves about the risks they choose to run.
I actually see the inability to do this as being part of the health-and-safety culture gone wrong. If playing conkers is forbidden, then as soon as I get to 18 I may as well take up base-jumping, right? Because both of them are dangerous...
I tend to divide things into:
Looks safe, is (reading)
Looks safe, isn't (going paddling in the African great lakes, horse riding, river fishing, kiddy trampolines)
Looks dangerous, is (hang gliding, motorcycling, base jumping)
Looks dangerous, isn't (roller-coasters)
The ones that really catch people out are the ones that look safe and aren't. Things that look dangerous because they are, like hang-gliding, would be an absolute massacre if it wasn't for the fact that most people who practice these sports realise this.
Flying in all its forms is inherently dangerous, because it's intolerant of mistakes and humans are prone to mistakes. The only reason it's acceptably safe is that we accept this; we try to do things sensibly; we get a lot of training. That's why to me it seems both fundamentally dishonest (sorry, but that's how I see it) and potentially very harmful to pretend that it's as safe as driving to work.
I'm not arguing that people shouldn't accept an element of risk; just that people should be honest with themselves about the risks they choose to run.
I actually see the inability to do this as being part of the health-and-safety culture gone wrong. If playing conkers is forbidden, then as soon as I get to 18 I may as well take up base-jumping, right? Because both of them are dangerous...
I tend to divide things into:
Looks safe, is (reading)
Looks safe, isn't (going paddling in the African great lakes, horse riding, river fishing, kiddy trampolines)
Looks dangerous, is (hang gliding, motorcycling, base jumping)
Looks dangerous, isn't (roller-coasters)
The ones that really catch people out are the ones that look safe and aren't. Things that look dangerous because they are, like hang-gliding, would be an absolute massacre if it wasn't for the fact that most people who practice these sports realise this.
Flying in all its forms is inherently dangerous, because it's intolerant of mistakes and humans are prone to mistakes. The only reason it's acceptably safe is that we accept this; we try to do things sensibly; we get a lot of training. That's why to me it seems both fundamentally dishonest (sorry, but that's how I see it) and potentially very harmful to pretend that it's as safe as driving to work.
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I don't really understand that... it was risky to sit in the cockpit because it was painted? Was it slippery paint, or new radioactive paint (seems unlikely, and hardly a concern when you're 90). It wasn't their new paint job they were worried for, was it?
Seems terribly vague to me.
Seems terribly vague to me.
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Two questions here, really. Playing about with statistics to compare risks doesn't really answer either.
Question one, are you more likely to be in an accident in GA than driving (or racing) a motor cycle.....
Question two, are you more likely to DIE in an accident in GA than .....whatever.
And then somebody observed that if you have no petrol (gasoline) left, you are less likely to be toasted.....
To what conclusion does that lead the sensible risk taker? Fly an aircraft with NO PETROL and no engine, either. Obviously, take up gliding. General Aviation - (I do have 1200 hours power flying) is definitely more complicated and more dangerous than gliding (I have 1800 hours in gliders). But most power pilots come to grief because of an attitude problem; eg thinking a single engine small aircraft can reasonably used for business - or thinking I MUST get back to the home airfield because my car/wife/girlfriend is there.... or thinking if I throw this aircraft around with a few aerobatics, my passenger will really be impressed, etc etc.
There are old pilots and there are bold pilots....
Question one, are you more likely to be in an accident in GA than driving (or racing) a motor cycle.....
Question two, are you more likely to DIE in an accident in GA than .....whatever.
And then somebody observed that if you have no petrol (gasoline) left, you are less likely to be toasted.....
To what conclusion does that lead the sensible risk taker? Fly an aircraft with NO PETROL and no engine, either. Obviously, take up gliding. General Aviation - (I do have 1200 hours power flying) is definitely more complicated and more dangerous than gliding (I have 1800 hours in gliders). But most power pilots come to grief because of an attitude problem; eg thinking a single engine small aircraft can reasonably used for business - or thinking I MUST get back to the home airfield because my car/wife/girlfriend is there.... or thinking if I throw this aircraft around with a few aerobatics, my passenger will really be impressed, etc etc.
There are old pilots and there are bold pilots....
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"This is something we often say to calm nervous fliers, but it's actually not entirely correct. Yes, it's correct for airline travel, but for GA aircraft it's not. Flying/riding in GA planes has about the same statistics of injury as riding a motorcycle, i.e. considerably higher than riding in a car. Not that we want to scare people unnecessarily, but we should also not be disingenuous with this info"
Yes, but the machine itself is not dangerous. It only becomes dangerous, to a degree, when a human interfaces with it. The majority of motorcycle accidents are caused by careless car drivers. The majority of GA crashes are caused by neglect. That neglect comes in a variety of formats, attitude, carelessness, poor training, poor maintenance, poor understanding, bravado. The point of course it is all driven by the individual. Sure **** happens, and it is fate to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. But that is life, is it not?
Anything can be dangerous - roll up to a bank, point a gun at the teller - living life a bit dangerously????The majority go in with their cash card and are perfectly safe. (pre 2008
)
Yes, but the machine itself is not dangerous. It only becomes dangerous, to a degree, when a human interfaces with it. The majority of motorcycle accidents are caused by careless car drivers. The majority of GA crashes are caused by neglect. That neglect comes in a variety of formats, attitude, carelessness, poor training, poor maintenance, poor understanding, bravado. The point of course it is all driven by the individual. Sure **** happens, and it is fate to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. But that is life, is it not?
Anything can be dangerous - roll up to a bank, point a gun at the teller - living life a bit dangerously????The majority go in with their cash card and are perfectly safe. (pre 2008
)