How safe is flying?
Joined: Sep 2001
Aviation Qualifications: CPL
Posts: 2,787
Likes: 208
From: Toronto
I can't imagine an instructor not properly teaching a student how to use the mixture. I find it hard to believe that it's not required, and not common practice, even in the UK.
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 832
Likes: 0
From: East Anglia
we have a 16 people wll die for every 1 million hours in a light aircraft
we have a .85 chance of dying for every 1 million hours in the car
so per flying hour in a ligh aircraft we are 20 times as likely to die as driving
we have a .85 chance of dying for every 1 million hours in the car
so per flying hour in a ligh aircraft we are 20 times as likely to die as driving
You can make statistics work in whichever way suits you. Like the statistician who always took a bomb with him when he flew to enhance his safety. Apparently the chances of there being two bombs on an aircraft are much lower than the chance of there being just one.
We were pleased when a new member joined our group, he had previously suffered an engine failure so the chance of our aircraft suffering one decreased when he joined the group!
On the subject of age, we had an aerobatics competitor Harry Mason who competed well into his Eighties.
We also have an active competitor in his seventies who has won many competitions and twice won the most sought after aerobatics trophy -- the Esso Tiger trophy.
You wouldn't know he was 72 if you met him unless you had been told.
Age is a state of mind rather than something you mind stating.
ZA
Joined: Jun 2003
Posts: 13,787
Likes: 0
From: EuroGA.org
Gemma, my comments on motorcycling were based on the 1970s and the early 1980s, when there were far fewer cars (about 3x fewer) on the UK roads, and very few half blind OAPs were getting tax free lump sums from private pensions with which to buy cars 
Surveys at the time showed 2/3 of accidents (involving a car and a bike) were caused directly by the car driver, usually by pulling out of a side road or similar. I am sure it would be worse now, but maybe not due to stricter medical reuirements. The biker cannot do much about those risks.
Also there were many times more bikers back then - many young people could not afford a car so had a motorbike. Today's bike accident figures are hugely skewed (for the better) by a much reduced biker population.
The risk profile in flying is completely different. You could fly around blindfolded for the rest of your life, 24hrs/day, and would prob99 die of natural causes before hitting something airborne. Fly above 2000ft and the UK mid-air risk is no longer supported by any data at all. Look after the plane, engine especially, and the numbers get even better.
When I had to do the Lyco SB569 crank swap, I sent it to a highly regarded specialist engine shop in the USA. Too many horror stories of UK rebuilds causing various failures. And the U.S. job cost $12k plus shipping, which is a lot less than any of the UK outfits. One now-defunct outfit quoted £10k for the same work and my 'due diligence' found about 50% of ex customers wouldn't touch them again.
Surveys at the time showed 2/3 of accidents (involving a car and a bike) were caused directly by the car driver, usually by pulling out of a side road or similar. I am sure it would be worse now, but maybe not due to stricter medical reuirements. The biker cannot do much about those risks.
Also there were many times more bikers back then - many young people could not afford a car so had a motorbike. Today's bike accident figures are hugely skewed (for the better) by a much reduced biker population.
The risk profile in flying is completely different. You could fly around blindfolded for the rest of your life, 24hrs/day, and would prob99 die of natural causes before hitting something airborne. Fly above 2000ft and the UK mid-air risk is no longer supported by any data at all. Look after the plane, engine especially, and the numbers get even better.
When I had to do the Lyco SB569 crank swap, I sent it to a highly regarded specialist engine shop in the USA. Too many horror stories of UK rebuilds causing various failures. And the U.S. job cost $12k plus shipping, which is a lot less than any of the UK outfits. One now-defunct outfit quoted £10k for the same work and my 'due diligence' found about 50% of ex customers wouldn't touch them again.
Supercharged PPRuNer
Joined: Nov 2000
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 1,188
Likes: 15
From: Doon the watter, a million miles from the sandpit.
Completely unscientific, but I've been flying for 8 years, around 500hrs total. I've had one incident where I genuinely thought we were going to crash.
On my bike I can think of at least three occasions in the last year alone where car or lorry drivers have nearly killed me. And that's on a pedal bike . . .
It's much, much safer up there.
On my bike I can think of at least three occasions in the last year alone where car or lorry drivers have nearly killed me. And that's on a pedal bike . . .
It's much, much safer up there.
Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 1,856
Likes: 75
From: uk
G SXTY,
I would roughly share your flying experience (or near crashing experience) but in about 20 years around flying I have witnessed three significant aircraft accidents, one fatal. (I have witnessed several more in air displays so I don't count those)
In 50 years motoring I have only witnessed one accident actually happen.
Perhaps you are a much safer pilot than you are a cyclist?
I would roughly share your flying experience (or near crashing experience) but in about 20 years around flying I have witnessed three significant aircraft accidents, one fatal. (I have witnessed several more in air displays so I don't count those)
In 50 years motoring I have only witnessed one accident actually happen.
Perhaps you are a much safer pilot than you are a cyclist?
Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 8
Likes: 0
From: london+SOuthwest ireland
even more numbers
getting back to the numbers you are much more likely to die in a car if you are drunk or speeding or on your mobile or tired
so if you are safe and alert the chance of dying in the cars is prob more like .4 per million
they say that flying in Ga is about as risky as driving while on the moblie
also the type of aircraft
The Bulletin’s analysis of Lancair accident records from the NTSB found that there have been 122 crashes in the United States since 1989 among the company’s nearly 1,100 homebuilt models. While 92 people were killed in those crashes, there were neither deaths nor injuries in more than 40 percent of them.
so a 1 in 9 chance of a crash if you flew it for 19 yrs
and in the crash a 60% chance of a fatility
or if you flew it for 1 year a 1 in 171 chance of a crash
i know the figures are not exact as the chance was in 1992 there was only 100 flying and in 2008 there was over a 1000 so that would mean you are even more likely to crash
Many Lancair crashes are due to lack of pilot training | Local & State News | The Bulletin
the most frightening statistic of all though is the owner of lancair says the planes have at least 200,000 hours
but work it out 92 deaths thats like 200 000 x 5 =1 000 000
92x5=460
surely that cannot be right
Lancair say that most causes are pilot inexperience or not built properly by the builder
so if you are safe and alert the chance of dying in the cars is prob more like .4 per million
they say that flying in Ga is about as risky as driving while on the moblie
also the type of aircraft
The Bulletin’s analysis of Lancair accident records from the NTSB found that there have been 122 crashes in the United States since 1989 among the company’s nearly 1,100 homebuilt models. While 92 people were killed in those crashes, there were neither deaths nor injuries in more than 40 percent of them.
so a 1 in 9 chance of a crash if you flew it for 19 yrs
and in the crash a 60% chance of a fatility
or if you flew it for 1 year a 1 in 171 chance of a crash
i know the figures are not exact as the chance was in 1992 there was only 100 flying and in 2008 there was over a 1000 so that would mean you are even more likely to crash
Many Lancair crashes are due to lack of pilot training | Local & State News | The Bulletin
the most frightening statistic of all though is the owner of lancair says the planes have at least 200,000 hours
but work it out 92 deaths thats like 200 000 x 5 =1 000 000
92x5=460
surely that cannot be right
Lancair say that most causes are pilot inexperience or not built properly by the builder
Joined: May 2002
Posts: 981
Likes: 0
From: In a nice house
Liam
I fear you may be baffled by all the long posts and figures posted here.The crux of the matter is - if you act like a professional and ensure your aircraft is maintained properly then your chance of death by flying is going to be closer to the airliner figure of 0.34 per million hours.
If you choose to fly like a cowboy expect to die alot sooner.
I fear you may be baffled by all the long posts and figures posted here.The crux of the matter is - if you act like a professional and ensure your aircraft is maintained properly then your chance of death by flying is going to be closer to the airliner figure of 0.34 per million hours.
If you choose to fly like a cowboy expect to die alot sooner.
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,434
Likes: 0
From: Scotland
IO540 wrote:
Gemma, my comments on motorcycling were based on the 1970s and the early 1980s, when there were far fewer cars (about 3x fewer) on the UK roads, and very few half blind OAPs were getting tax free lump sums from private pensions with which to buy cars
As I draw a pension, I am an OAP, I wear reading glasses, I used my tax free lump sum to buy an aeroplane. So watch out, us half blind OAPs are catching up.
Gemma, my comments on motorcycling were based on the 1970s and the early 1980s, when there were far fewer cars (about 3x fewer) on the UK roads, and very few half blind OAPs were getting tax free lump sums from private pensions with which to buy cars
As I draw a pension, I am an OAP, I wear reading glasses, I used my tax free lump sum to buy an aeroplane. So watch out, us half blind OAPs are catching up.
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 343
Likes: 0
From: Pembrokeshire UK
Hmm Complacency 
Been fixing & flying aeroplanes most of my life. Thought I was through with doing silly things.
But last year I took another pilot to look at a seal family holed up in a cliff cave on the Pembrokeshire coast. We dropped down to 500ft over the sea, level with the cliffs, turned around a headland and were suddely confronted with a massive downdraft and a swarm of alarmed seagulls. The aeroplane left a wake in the sea before I managed to put on full VW! power to climb away. Even the old & experienced can do stupid things, and sightseeing at low level is the stupidest.
Been fixing & flying aeroplanes most of my life. Thought I was through with doing silly things.
But last year I took another pilot to look at a seal family holed up in a cliff cave on the Pembrokeshire coast. We dropped down to 500ft over the sea, level with the cliffs, turned around a headland and were suddely confronted with a massive downdraft and a swarm of alarmed seagulls. The aeroplane left a wake in the sea before I managed to put on full VW! power to climb away. Even the old & experienced can do stupid things, and sightseeing at low level is the stupidest.
