Met Office Weather Forecast? Hmmmmmmm....
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Met Office Weather Forecast? Hmmmmmmm....
We, the Tax Payers, bought the Met Office a shiny new number cruncher not long ago and this is what it does. Or rather doesn't do, it does not forecast! Accurately that is.
Late Saturday 5 Day Forecast....
Sunday 5 Day Forecast.......
Monday 5 Day Forecast
More like actuals, on the first day!
"It don't impress me much!" Shania Twain
Late Saturday 5 Day Forecast....
Sunday 5 Day Forecast.......
Monday 5 Day Forecast
More like actuals, on the first day!
"It don't impress me much!" Shania Twain
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Funny, because the Met office TAF's used to be pretty good as well, but over the last 3 months they've been garbage; I reckon my 10 year old could have done better recently. The Saurday morning TAF's around SE England were very favourable (for those of us on "Project Propeller" ferry runs) and yet in practice, the vis and cloud-base was rubbish.
On other days, the met men seem to have taken to hedging their bets on an industrial scale, hence the "prob 30" seems more like a real-life "prob 10" - but is simply thrown in there in order to protect their backs.
Come on guys....!
On other days, the met men seem to have taken to hedging their bets on an industrial scale, hence the "prob 30" seems more like a real-life "prob 10" - but is simply thrown in there in order to protect their backs.
Come on guys....!
Last edited by wsmempson; 2nd Jun 2008 at 18:19. Reason: my own illiteracy
I often look at the BBC 5 day forecast to whet my appetite for a spot of aviating. Generally it's rubbish and changes from day to day, don't know why I bother. It tends to be fairly accurate on the 24 hour forecast but by then I can do my own by sticking my head out the door.
Once heard that with the Cray computing engine they bought from PC World the Met Office can claim 75% accuracy. However if they simply say that tomorrow will be the same as today they already achieve 70%, aint science wonderful?
Once heard that with the Cray computing engine they bought from PC World the Met Office can claim 75% accuracy. However if they simply say that tomorrow will be the same as today they already achieve 70%, aint science wonderful?
Last night (Sunday) the Met Office were forecasting "very good visibility" for this morning for the Yeovilton/Salisbury area. So, I thought, I'll go flying.
What did we get? 3Km at best. Why do they bother to predict weather more than a few hours ahead? It's a complete waste of time.
The TAF's for Monday were spot on.
Thanks aviate for starting this thread and giving me the oportunity to grumble. I did manage a few circuits.
What did we get? 3Km at best. Why do they bother to predict weather more than a few hours ahead? It's a complete waste of time.
The TAF's for Monday were spot on.
Thanks aviate for starting this thread and giving me the oportunity to grumble. I did manage a few circuits.
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thats the trouble - they model the weather now with computers and simulation - against the military that have local knowledge, a good weather radar and mechanical instruments and windows......its about time the met office outsourced the forecasting to farmers and military meto's..... lol 
According to The Met Office in The Telegraph yesterday, June will be scorchio, while July and August will be washouts. I often cut out such long-term forecast bollox, to remind myself how inaccurate these things usually turn out to be.
As for the short term stuff, a five day forecast on the BBC website in the morning will be different from one in a newpaper on the same day, which will be different from the one on the BBC news in the evening.
One thing is, however, guaranteed. If the forecast for the next 5 days is good, you can sure that if the actual differs from the forecast, it will only be in a worse-than-forecast type way . . . .
As for the short term stuff, a five day forecast on the BBC website in the morning will be different from one in a newpaper on the same day, which will be different from the one on the BBC news in the evening.
One thing is, however, guaranteed. If the forecast for the next 5 days is good, you can sure that if the actual differs from the forecast, it will only be in a worse-than-forecast type way . . . .
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I didn't "cut out and keep" the Met Office page for Benson this morning, but it had one dark cloud for 1000, and then white clouds for the rest of the day.
The same site's weather radar showed the yellow, pink and red stuff already over Oxfordshire (since about 0500) and still moving North from W Sussex and Hampshire, with no chance of it clearing before about now. It's still drizzling.
Piss-up, meet brewery.
The same site's weather radar showed the yellow, pink and red stuff already over Oxfordshire (since about 0500) and still moving North from W Sussex and Hampshire, with no chance of it clearing before about now. It's still drizzling.
Piss-up, meet brewery.
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I use www.metcheck.com to see what the weather is likely to do in the week ahead, and it has been more accurate than the met office website.
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Agree with Chippik, if a general idea of weather is required for a particular locale, especially 5 days ahead, then metcheck is the site for me. I was put onto it years ago by a yachting-type who swore by it for coastal forecasts.
Having said that the met office have been pretty accurate up here for the past month.
Having said that the met office have been pretty accurate up here for the past month.
For a quick overview, I've found this Irish site to be extremely good:
http://www.rte.ie/weather/charts.html
MUCH better charts than the UK Met Office or the useless BBC produce!
A bit like what we used to get on BBC before they dumbed it down with no isobars, loopy-swoopy panning camera shots and gushing girlies (of both sexes
) presenting it at a level the mononeurones can understand.
http://www.rte.ie/weather/charts.html
MUCH better charts than the UK Met Office or the useless BBC produce!
A bit like what we used to get on BBC before they dumbed it down with no isobars, loopy-swoopy panning camera shots and gushing girlies (of both sexes
) presenting it at a level the mononeurones can understand.
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Right now the weather (look at a MSLP chart) is lots of little bits of muck all over the place, moving about fairly randomly, and this kind of stuff cannot be forecast well.
You could stick 10 forecasters in a room with the same 3D model data and each of them would draw the troughs in different places.
OTOH if you get a big front, then a gap, then another big front, which is the more usual situation here, that is much easier to forecast. Well, they often get the timing a bit wrong but the forecast weather will definitely turn up.
There is also some subtle shorthand involved:
Prob 30 means they think the stuff will likely not happen but it just might and they need to cover their ar*e. I know an airline pilot whose airline SOP is to ignore all "prob 30 tempo" forecasts.
Prob 40 means they think the stuff will come.
You could stick 10 forecasters in a room with the same 3D model data and each of them would draw the troughs in different places.
OTOH if you get a big front, then a gap, then another big front, which is the more usual situation here, that is much easier to forecast. Well, they often get the timing a bit wrong but the forecast weather will definitely turn up.
There is also some subtle shorthand involved:
Prob 30 means they think the stuff will likely not happen but it just might and they need to cover their ar*e. I know an airline pilot whose airline SOP is to ignore all "prob 30 tempo" forecasts.
Prob 40 means they think the stuff will come.
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In my view Io's comments indicate why they got rid of prob tens and twentys. As he points out, all they really wanted to say was "It will probably not happen but it might" and "we think it probably will happen but it might not."
One thing that has always puzzled and slightly annoyed me about the BBC and to some extent UTV (Ulster TV) is why they appear to make a point of not talking about the weather in the south of Ireland concentrating only on England, NI, Wales and Scotland. When most of the weather comes across Ireland it seems a bit petty.
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I am off to the Met Office Working Group meeting in an hour and have retained the comments on here to raise at the meeting as a discussion point along with other feedback received over the last couple of months.
I will post the output in due course.
I will post the output in due course.
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BOSE-X, discuss these points all you like but I doubt any convincing change will come out of it. What amazes me about the BBC weather men, is the cheerful way they prattle on about todays weather which bears sod all relevance to the night before's forecast. As has been said, it just may be possible for the smiling chappie to say what today's weather will be but I for one will stick my head out of the door!
Flaming June as forecast....yeah right
Flaming June as forecast....yeah right