Light Aircraft Crash on Isle of Wight
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Whirlybird
No one is speculating on a definitive cause at all
What is good about the speculation is that it is taking into account all possible scenario's which is increasing everyone's awareness of all the innumerable risks that this flight faced.
Weight
Balance
Density altitude
Performance charts based on a 'new' aircraft
fully functioning (or otherwise) engine and prop
fuel contamination
Field conditions
prevailing wind
etc etc
We are all thinking about all of these factors just that little bit more now and that is no bad thing.
Having said that, I am quite sure that on Sunday evening when we all heard the news on the radio or TV the first things that we thought were:
Cherokee 140
4 on board
channel crossing (fuel load)
hot, muggy day
And that is why so many on this forum and elsewhere will not be surprised at the outcome of any AAIB report because even if the factors are none of the above - the safety margin for error (or other failure) because of the above was NIL.
No one is speculating on a definitive cause at all
What is good about the speculation is that it is taking into account all possible scenario's which is increasing everyone's awareness of all the innumerable risks that this flight faced.
Weight
Balance
Density altitude
Performance charts based on a 'new' aircraft
fully functioning (or otherwise) engine and prop
fuel contamination
Field conditions
prevailing wind
etc etc
We are all thinking about all of these factors just that little bit more now and that is no bad thing.
Having said that, I am quite sure that on Sunday evening when we all heard the news on the radio or TV the first things that we thought were:
Cherokee 140
4 on board
channel crossing (fuel load)
hot, muggy day
And that is why so many on this forum and elsewhere will not be surprised at the outcome of any AAIB report because even if the factors are none of the above - the safety margin for error (or other failure) because of the above was NIL.
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Whirly,
No one is jumping to conclusions, they are merely speculating on the cause which as I have pointed out is healthy. If speculation causes us to think about our flight planning then it might just save a life.
I teach on one of these aircraft and can assure you it is very performance limited. Looking at the photographs of the deceased they look like the average overweight 50 plus brits. The teenager maybe have been a rake but even without him 3 adults take the aircraft out of the W&B with all but the most minimal of fuel. They were heading to France for what I speculate to be a trip so will have had baggage however minimal. Factor in density altitude, rough grass, sloping surface and weight and the POH in front of me has them way outside the envelope. So I would therefore SPECULATE that they were overweight, had not carried out the correct factoring calcs for the surface or the DA, pulled the aircraft into the air before it was ready to fly and the aircraft wallowed around on the edge of the stall falling to climb. Possibly in an attempt to get the aircraft to climb out ground effect the nose was raised just enough to turn the wallowing into a stall down it comes.
I would further speculate that as they took off from a tarmac runway of a similar length that they felt emboldened enough to attempt the same thing on a rough grass runway.
Sandown is not the most friendly of surfaces for performance limited aircraft and the optical illusion created by the runway being in a bowl would not help the situation.
This is just my speculation but I am prepared to take bets on the AIB report outcome.
So what is the outcome of my speculation? Always do a W&B, always check the DA even it seems irrelevant and always carry out the surface factoring as recommended by the CAA.
No one is jumping to conclusions, they are merely speculating on the cause which as I have pointed out is healthy. If speculation causes us to think about our flight planning then it might just save a life.
I teach on one of these aircraft and can assure you it is very performance limited. Looking at the photographs of the deceased they look like the average overweight 50 plus brits. The teenager maybe have been a rake but even without him 3 adults take the aircraft out of the W&B with all but the most minimal of fuel. They were heading to France for what I speculate to be a trip so will have had baggage however minimal. Factor in density altitude, rough grass, sloping surface and weight and the POH in front of me has them way outside the envelope. So I would therefore SPECULATE that they were overweight, had not carried out the correct factoring calcs for the surface or the DA, pulled the aircraft into the air before it was ready to fly and the aircraft wallowed around on the edge of the stall falling to climb. Possibly in an attempt to get the aircraft to climb out ground effect the nose was raised just enough to turn the wallowing into a stall down it comes.
I would further speculate that as they took off from a tarmac runway of a similar length that they felt emboldened enough to attempt the same thing on a rough grass runway.
Sandown is not the most friendly of surfaces for performance limited aircraft and the optical illusion created by the runway being in a bowl would not help the situation.
This is just my speculation but I am prepared to take bets on the AIB report outcome.
So what is the outcome of my speculation? Always do a W&B, always check the DA even it seems irrelevant and always carry out the surface factoring as recommended by the CAA.
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W & B
Hi Whirly
I know your size (feather light) A/G Tatenhill (yes I always get your callsign wrong)
Statsman
I know your size (feather light) A/G Tatenhill (yes I always get your callsign wrong)
Statsman
Last edited by STATSMAN; 7th Aug 2007 at 16:04. Reason: spelling
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I agree with Bose's assumptions I'm afraid. There may have been an additional factor such as reduction in power which contributed, and as a result of the reduced safety margins sealed their fate.
It also shows that no matter what happens you should *never* try to "stretch the glide" - or in other words yank it over something, for this will have a certain outcome. It is better to fly into tree tops, but still fly, than stall and nose it in out of control. Nose first from 50' will kill you just as easily as nose first from 5,000'.
If you really have no options left, a better option would be to put in all flap, balloon over whatever it is and accept the consequences later - just don't stall. Ernest K Gann managed to avoid taking out the Taj Mahal this way when he took off in a (unknown to him) massively overloaded aeroplane.
It also shows that no matter what happens you should *never* try to "stretch the glide" - or in other words yank it over something, for this will have a certain outcome. It is better to fly into tree tops, but still fly, than stall and nose it in out of control. Nose first from 50' will kill you just as easily as nose first from 5,000'.
If you really have no options left, a better option would be to put in all flap, balloon over whatever it is and accept the consequences later - just don't stall. Ernest K Gann managed to avoid taking out the Taj Mahal this way when he took off in a (unknown to him) massively overloaded aeroplane.
Autorise a L'atterrissage
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I welcome both sides in this
Hi Whirlybird,
Yes, I understand well what you are saying. And to me, your urging for ppruners restraint is as valuable as the speculation.
I fly one of these. And I have to be VERY careful about W&B, and generally think of Her as a 2 seater. A bit akin to a 162, if such a thing existed.
I flew Her down to Valencia this year. Very nice too. 2 up on the way down, just me on the way back. With 2 of us, minimal overnight luggage only and a couple of bottles of water I was OK for full fuel one side, tabs the other. She was within limits, and She flew slowly, but beautifully!
Whilst in Valencia I day-tripped to Valencia. 2 up, no luggage, full fuel (out of Valencia). And a hot day. Performance was as predicted, as worked out, and WAY below what I would expect on a chilly day from Biggin Hill, Her base. But there was, of course, plenty of room on commercial runways.
Coming back, I was solo, no luggage, full fuel at each stop, and had it not been for bad weather over the Channel I would have been back in Biggin that same evening.
Given my knowledge of this type, I do feel permitted to speculate, and from an informed standpoint too.
I have been to Sandown, just 2 up, no luggage on below tabs fuel and I was quite surprised at how long it took Her to unglue on a 15 degree day.
It really wouldent cross my mind to attempt a takeoff from Sandown, 4 up (whatever their weights but we are talking 3 adults plus a sporty Teen) with sufficient fuel to make it to France.
That said, any loss of life in our little community is both shocking and painful. This, of course, is nothing to those more familiar to the 4 people must be feeling.
I am sorry if you don't like my words. But I make no apology for them. If they, or the words of anyone else on this thread cause ANY pilot to think before they fly this summer, and reduce a potential risk to themselves or others, BEFORE the reports all come out they will have been wort. it Even if they have annoyed you.
Yes, I understand well what you are saying. And to me, your urging for ppruners restraint is as valuable as the speculation.
I fly one of these. And I have to be VERY careful about W&B, and generally think of Her as a 2 seater. A bit akin to a 162, if such a thing existed.
I flew Her down to Valencia this year. Very nice too. 2 up on the way down, just me on the way back. With 2 of us, minimal overnight luggage only and a couple of bottles of water I was OK for full fuel one side, tabs the other. She was within limits, and She flew slowly, but beautifully!
Whilst in Valencia I day-tripped to Valencia. 2 up, no luggage, full fuel (out of Valencia). And a hot day. Performance was as predicted, as worked out, and WAY below what I would expect on a chilly day from Biggin Hill, Her base. But there was, of course, plenty of room on commercial runways.
Coming back, I was solo, no luggage, full fuel at each stop, and had it not been for bad weather over the Channel I would have been back in Biggin that same evening.
Given my knowledge of this type, I do feel permitted to speculate, and from an informed standpoint too.
I have been to Sandown, just 2 up, no luggage on below tabs fuel and I was quite surprised at how long it took Her to unglue on a 15 degree day.
It really wouldent cross my mind to attempt a takeoff from Sandown, 4 up (whatever their weights but we are talking 3 adults plus a sporty Teen) with sufficient fuel to make it to France.
That said, any loss of life in our little community is both shocking and painful. This, of course, is nothing to those more familiar to the 4 people must be feeling.
I am sorry if you don't like my words. But I make no apology for them. If they, or the words of anyone else on this thread cause ANY pilot to think before they fly this summer, and reduce a potential risk to themselves or others, BEFORE the reports all come out they will have been wort. it Even if they have annoyed you.
Last edited by Leclairage; 8th Aug 2007 at 05:16. Reason: to add two words
Avoid imitations
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If you really have no options left, a better option would be to put in all flap, balloon over whatever it is and accept the consequences later - just don't stall. Ernest K Gann managed to avoid taking out the Taj Mahal this way when he took off in a (unknown to him) massively overloaded aeroplane.
No-one mentioned the possibility of intake icing so far, if the weather was like it was here "up north", it was a classic day for it to occur.
Gnome de PPRuNe
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'Twas a Liberator ShyTorque.
I learn a great deal from these discussions - not a pilot (yet anyway) but it might stand me in good stead one day.
Sad event, let's hope the rest of the summer proves safer.
I learn a great deal from these discussions - not a pilot (yet anyway) but it might stand me in good stead one day.
Sad event, let's hope the rest of the summer proves safer.
Avoid imitations
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Damn, me memory's gone possibly then. The one I read about was an account by an RAF pilot, published in "Airclues" some twenty years ago.
I agree, a very sad week all round.
I agree, a very sad week all round.
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To me, the worst thing about these multi-fatality accidents is that (I have no idea about this one; this is a general comment only) usually there is just one person who is the planner and the pilot, and the others are just normal people who - having squeezed themselves into the cockpit - totally trust that one person's judgement and flying.
Carrying passengers is one helluva responsibility.
Carrying passengers is one helluva responsibility.
Autorise a L'atterrissage
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I0540, yes indeed.
Our passengers put such simple trust in us as pilots to get it right and to make the right calls - the responsibility is simply awesome.
Our passengers put such simple trust in us as pilots to get it right and to make the right calls - the responsibility is simply awesome.
I speak as a pilot who has flown Performace "A" aircraft since 1962 in my day job (3 and 4 engined). I also speak as a pilot who owns a PA-28 Warrior.
You are all banging on about about the ability of an aircraft to get airborne at a given weight from a runway of a given length. That is only part of the equation. Some of you have introduced a discussion about pressure altitude etc.
What you are driving towards is a WAT limit. WAT= (Weight/Altitude/Temperature).
That limit basically means that your aircraft can get airborne in the runway available but will be unable to climb after take-off if exceeded.
I can remember meeting one of my old friends in Sharjah in the 1970s. He had just got airborne that day (and I stress the word "just") in a Victor MK.1 tanker from Dubai and they had raised sand across the desert for 3 miles much to the chagrin of Dubai ATC!
He asked me why this should be because their "take-off performance graph" showed that they had runway to spare.
I explained that it was perfectly possible to get airborne from a runway but then be unable to climb due to the fact that the weight or the temperature or the altitude of the airfeild was too high.
All that Bomber Command had was a TORR (take off run required) graph and stopwatch acceleration points.
I go to Sandown frequently with my Warrior and I would be quite bothered about getting out of there in zero wind with four on board at 30°C and with any sort of fuel at all.
I hasten to add that I have no experience of flying a PA28-140.
You are all banging on about about the ability of an aircraft to get airborne at a given weight from a runway of a given length. That is only part of the equation. Some of you have introduced a discussion about pressure altitude etc.
What you are driving towards is a WAT limit. WAT= (Weight/Altitude/Temperature).
That limit basically means that your aircraft can get airborne in the runway available but will be unable to climb after take-off if exceeded.
I can remember meeting one of my old friends in Sharjah in the 1970s. He had just got airborne that day (and I stress the word "just") in a Victor MK.1 tanker from Dubai and they had raised sand across the desert for 3 miles much to the chagrin of Dubai ATC!
He asked me why this should be because their "take-off performance graph" showed that they had runway to spare.
I explained that it was perfectly possible to get airborne from a runway but then be unable to climb due to the fact that the weight or the temperature or the altitude of the airfeild was too high.
All that Bomber Command had was a TORR (take off run required) graph and stopwatch acceleration points.
I go to Sandown frequently with my Warrior and I would be quite bothered about getting out of there in zero wind with four on board at 30°C and with any sort of fuel at all.
I hasten to add that I have no experience of flying a PA28-140.
Last edited by JW411; 7th Aug 2007 at 20:39.
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This is mad. Let's not get bound up in political correctness and lose sight of the wood for the trees.
A Cherokee 140 tried to get out of a grass strip on a moderately hot day 4-up with at least a reasonable amount of fuel and probably some baggage. It stalled and crashed. The chances are 99% that W+B and MTOW issues were somewhere at the heart of this accident. Why shouldn't people discuss this? It's a recurring theme, which kills lots of people in small aircraft. Most pilots would regard 4-up in any conditions in a Cherokee 140 as verging on insanity, or at least to be treated with the utmost circumspection.
Maybe there was carb icing, maybe a partial engine failure, maybe a bird strike, maybe, maybe, maybe, but that doesn't mean we should ignore, and therefore fail to discuss, the bleeding obvious. And I don't think we should have to preface everything we say with endless, self-conscious disclaimers either.
You can speculate to your heart's content if I have an accident. I'll probably have done something very stupid.
A Cherokee 140 tried to get out of a grass strip on a moderately hot day 4-up with at least a reasonable amount of fuel and probably some baggage. It stalled and crashed. The chances are 99% that W+B and MTOW issues were somewhere at the heart of this accident. Why shouldn't people discuss this? It's a recurring theme, which kills lots of people in small aircraft. Most pilots would regard 4-up in any conditions in a Cherokee 140 as verging on insanity, or at least to be treated with the utmost circumspection.
Maybe there was carb icing, maybe a partial engine failure, maybe a bird strike, maybe, maybe, maybe, but that doesn't mean we should ignore, and therefore fail to discuss, the bleeding obvious. And I don't think we should have to preface everything we say with endless, self-conscious disclaimers either.
You can speculate to your heart's content if I have an accident. I'll probably have done something very stupid.
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JW411
I salute your professional experience. I am simply an amateur. But an aviator nonetheless.
To clarify my ((amateur) thinking, are you talking of the inability to climb out of ground effect?
I salute your professional experience. I am simply an amateur. But an aviator nonetheless.
To clarify my ((amateur) thinking, are you talking of the inability to climb out of ground effect?
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I am posting this again here so that anyone who hasn't seen it can watch it. In the aftermath of this latest crash and with JW411's comments above, it seems an apposite moment:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWC2XJYgcJU
This guy might have got out of ground effect with a bit less nose-up attitude and slowly bleeding off the flaps, but he might not have.
As they say, however, a superior pilot uses his superior judgement to avoid getting into situations where he needs to use his superior skill.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWC2XJYgcJU
This guy might have got out of ground effect with a bit less nose-up attitude and slowly bleeding off the flaps, but he might not have.
As they say, however, a superior pilot uses his superior judgement to avoid getting into situations where he needs to use his superior skill.
Leclairage:
I really do not want to get into a huge technical discussion about Performance "A" requirements since such aircraft as the PA-28 are probably in the Performance "X" (no performance) category.
However, you are just about right in your assumptions.
Imagine if you will taking off from an enormously long runway and then finding that you simply cannot climb. All will be well until you meet or try to avoid the first obstacle.
If your weight is too high or the temperature is too high or the airfield is too high then you WILL have a problem.
I really do not want to get into a huge technical discussion about Performance "A" requirements since such aircraft as the PA-28 are probably in the Performance "X" (no performance) category.
However, you are just about right in your assumptions.
Imagine if you will taking off from an enormously long runway and then finding that you simply cannot climb. All will be well until you meet or try to avoid the first obstacle.
If your weight is too high or the temperature is too high or the airfield is too high then you WILL have a problem.
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Flew a 182 thursday/friday on a 2hr flight e/w with four adults and bags. As this was the first time i'd flown more than two up on this type, diligently went through the performance/m&b calcs and not suprisingly even on this "proper" four seater tourer I had to accommodate a notable fuel reduction to stay both under weight and accommodate field limitations/factors.
There are probably not many amongst us who when we get familiar with a type, rely less on a formal calculation and more on our historical performance knowledge/seat of the pants. For me a summer departure in a 140 from Derby a few years ago cerainly gave me a "I learned about flying from that" experience
One other thought based on the eye witness above is the comment re: lots of traffic and a/c waiting departure. Not sure what the relative humidity was on saturday, but carb ice...
Lets hope we can all either learn something new or re-learn something we forgot from this tragic accident.
There are probably not many amongst us who when we get familiar with a type, rely less on a formal calculation and more on our historical performance knowledge/seat of the pants. For me a summer departure in a 140 from Derby a few years ago cerainly gave me a "I learned about flying from that" experience
One other thought based on the eye witness above is the comment re: lots of traffic and a/c waiting departure. Not sure what the relative humidity was on saturday, but carb ice...
Lets hope we can all either learn something new or re-learn something we forgot from this tragic accident.
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Imagine if you will taking off from an enormously long runway and then finding that you simply cannot climb. All will be well until you meet or try to avoid the first obstacle.
Agreed entirely, if not able to climb out of ground effect. But the indications in this case are that they did climb well out of GE. They crashed over a mile further down.
For a Warrior (10m wingspan) to be in GE, they would need to be within ~ 10m of the surface. As I say, the indications are they they got a lot higher than that.
I don't know the wingspan of a Victor tanker but it's a helluva lot more than 10m, and it could thus fly in GE at quite a height.
As regards carb icing, this (Southampton) suggests the air was quite dry. Probably not as hot as some suggest, either.
Agreed entirely, if not able to climb out of ground effect. But the indications in this case are that they did climb well out of GE. They crashed over a mile further down.
For a Warrior (10m wingspan) to be in GE, they would need to be within ~ 10m of the surface. As I say, the indications are they they got a lot higher than that.
I don't know the wingspan of a Victor tanker but it's a helluva lot more than 10m, and it could thus fly in GE at quite a height.
As regards carb icing, this (Southampton) suggests the air was quite dry. Probably not as hot as some suggest, either.
Death Cruiser Flight Crew
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Just about my closest call in thirty-five plus years of aviating was in the rear seat of a Cherokee 140. August Bank Holiday, circa 1970, three adult males up, plus weekend baggage, taking off from Hilversum, destination Hamburg. Picture the mounting dismay of me, peering between the substantial shoulders of the two guys up front, watching the tall Poplar trees at the boundary getting ever closer. Well, we made it, but not by much!
Oh and by the way, I was by far the most experienced pilot on board, including instructing time on the Cherokee 140. (I jumped in at the last minute, as there was a spare seat going.)
Some of us live to learn ...
Oh and by the way, I was by far the most experienced pilot on board, including instructing time on the Cherokee 140. (I jumped in at the last minute, as there was a spare seat going.)
Some of us live to learn ...
Last edited by Georgeablelovehowindia; 7th Aug 2007 at 22:45.
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One thing to thing about in the ground effect scenario is that Sandown is in a "bowl" and the ground continues to rise rapidly after take off. It would not surprise me if the ground effect lasted quite a bit after the initial take off and climb out.