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Old 17th Nov 2006, 02:26
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ATSB report

Here's a very interesting report on the statistical analysis of GA fatal accidents in Australia. Definitely worth a read.
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 08:26
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Originally Posted by WR
Ignorance is a bliss, so please don't convince me otherwise.
Ignorance will kill you. Better to understand why these people have fallen out of the sky, I reckon!
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 09:05
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Originally Posted by WR
...there's not much left that I can do to mitigate against the risks I take without detracting considerably from my personal enjoyment.
I agree with your sentiment. I think this is too often forgotten in today's world of risk aversion. It's not about eliminating risk, but managing it to an acceptable level.
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 10:16
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If You stay away from:-

Bad weather, Overcrowded airspace, Water and Get-Home-Itis

and

Have regular check flights rather than trying to do minimum hours

Then renting a typcal light single from a club with a good reputation is about as good as it gets.

And don't forget that you will have a motive to stay fit to pass that medical which in turn might pick up the heart condition or high blood pressure which would have got you anyway. Who knows you could even be better off !.

DS
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 11:54
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Originally Posted by Shaggy Sheep Driver

I've been riding motorcycles for 5 years, and last month a dozy car driver hit my bike FROM BEHIND (so i didn't see him coming), knocking me off and injuring me (not badly, but enough!). There's no equivalent of the dozy car driver in the air. SSD
There have been a few mid-airs which suggest that there is an equivalent...

There is also a quote above from Genghis the Engineer which says that the average private pilot flies about 15 hours per year, which I find surprising - 15 is not enough to feel competent and current. We fly so little that in fact flying 30 hours a year would make you LESS likely to have an accident, not twice as much, whereas I would suggest that doing 20,000 miles on a motorbike rather than 10,000 would expose you to twice the risk.
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 12:14
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Bad weather,

This means: get more training on weather appreciation. The PPL training establishment doesn't deal with this bit too well.

Overcrowded airspace,

Not sure what this means. The mid-air stats are negligible, especially away from circuits at uncontrolled airports

Water and

Ditching incident stats are distorted because few carry rafts, and a lot don't have transponders, and most don't carry locator beacons.

Get-Home-Itis

No such thing. Everything we do, from the moment we wake up, is done because we feel pressured to do so. If you didn't feel under pressure to have a wee, you would not go to the loo. This is just a stupid "CAA safety presentation" expression which might be there to excuse poor training and poor currency. A pilot should be taught to make a competent decision on the technical data before him: weather, aircraft performance, etc. Like going for a wee, every flight is done under pressure - especially if there are passengers present.
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 12:38
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Originally Posted by IO540
Get-Home-Itis

No such thing. Everything we do, from the moment we wake up, is done because we feel pressured to do so. If you didn't feel under pressure to have a wee, you would not go to the loo. This is just a stupid "CAA safety presentation" expression which might be there to excuse poor training and poor currency. A pilot should be taught to make a competent decision on the technical data before him: weather, aircraft performance, etc. Like going for a wee, every flight is done under pressure - especially if there are passengers present.
What a bizarre interpretation of what press-on-itis means.

Think continuing to Elstree instead of diverting into Luton for a good example.

The desire to have your aircraft back where your car is parked is a strong one and you need to consciously decide to avoid it: Needing to take a piss isn't a conscious decision, where you decide to do it is.
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 12:41
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Originally Posted by IO540;2970930[I
Get-Home-Itis[/I]

No such thing. Everything we do, ...
While I agree with the bulk of your comment, there are well documented studies which show that poor decision making is more likely on the return leg than the outbound leg and that the further you are into the flight the more likely you are to make a bad decision.

I seem to remember to the shrinks these are two different issues but are generally lumped together as get-home-itis. My memory is these are US and Australian studies and the decisions were generally weather related.
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 13:44
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Some top line stats on fatalities, however caused, here:

http://www.rospa.com/factsheets/accidents_overview.pdf

My guess is that water is the major killer in the leisure sector with over 400 drownings reported in one year. Perhaps not fair to compare motorbikes with leisure GA, unless the stats for bikes only include leisure use.
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 13:58
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OK, I am being overly pedantic but as you all know I like doing that, because I don't like the use of sloppy language and sloppy terminology used to cover up what IMHO starts with poor and outdated training of pilots and then continues through poor currency of those who do hang in there.

We all have a tendency, no matter how small, to chance flying in weather conditions to get home that we may decline if we were departing from our home base. It's real alright!

This is very true, but one has basically two choices:

(1) Ban all flights returning to one's base, unless the weather is CAVOK, or

(2) Try to analyse how decision making is affected by various psychological factors, and address that with appropriate training. One may find that the airlines got there first, however

Today, I had to get back home (as is usually the case on a Friday) so I did a flight in what most would call atrocious weather, and it was timed to use a gap between a trough and a cold front. The forecast for the destination was a possible 25kt crosswind component, right on the limit. I had 5hrs' fuel reserve, enough to get to Biarritz with FAA legal IFR reserves. The flight, 55kt headwind, and the landing (36kt more or less down the runway, windshear only about 10kt when I was expecting 20+) were in the end a complete non-event, with the benefit of the summer's bugs having got washed off. The place was like a graveyard, nobody was flying. I don't see anything wrong with their decisions, or with mine, but the point is that I looked at the data (including weather radar images) and made a decision to go based on the data, and (crucially) had an escape route in having enough reserve to go somewhere completely different. I think that training pilots to work it out like this is better than patronisingly telling them that it is better to be down here wishing they were up there than the other way round, etc, etc, etc.
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Old 17th Nov 2006, 22:42
  #31 (permalink)  
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Thanks for your replies, one and all!! By all means do carry on the discussion but I shall make a distillation of all of the above and let you all know how I get on! (I may leave out the motor cycling bit.......)

Kev.
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Old 18th Nov 2006, 10:33
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Horse-Riding more dangerous?

I read ages ago that Horse-Riding is the most dangerous leisure activity in the UK. I couldn't find the stats to quote, but according to the British Horse Society website there is a riding accident for every hour of daylight throughout the year in the uk! I'd rather be in the PA28 with the single donkey in front.
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Old 18th Nov 2006, 10:51
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Another way to look at it. If you think you're taking a bit of a chance, you probably are.

"I'll just press on for another couple of minutes"

"It's only a small cloud"

"I'll nip through that gap"

"I've got enough fuel to push through this headwind".


A lot of people have stopped growing old that way.
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Old 18th Nov 2006, 18:49
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"I'll just press on for another couple of minutes"

"It's only a small cloud"

"I'll nip through that gap"

"I've got enough fuel to push through this headwind".


[A lot of people have stopped growing old that way.]



Funny that, I do all of the above, routinely. I should be long dead, evidently.

That's right, that's how PPL training works in the UK. Train pilots to know close to s0d-all about flight planning, close to s0d-all about instrument flight and radio navigation, take £8000 off them for the job "done", and then give them a handout with all these wonderful ex-WW1 aviation sayings. Might as well give them a leather cap and goggles but that would cost far too much.
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