European Delays Getting Worse?
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European Delays Getting Worse?
I've been flying low cost airlines to and from the UK, probably 20 times per year, for the last 10 years or so, mainly to/from Stansted, Gatwick and Luton. I just can't pass up some of the prices, and I accept the inevitable stress of travelling with low cost airlines from these airports. Generally my experience had been ok, neither good nor bad. I've come to expect later flights to be delayed and I understand the baggage policies so I'm not surprised when my bag sometimes gets checked at the gate. There are many things I utterly loathe about these airlines, but, you get what you pay for and once I'm actually at my destination I appreciate the money not spent travelling with a proper carrier.
However, the last 5 evening flights I've taken from European destinations to London have had delays in excess of 90 minutes, and up to 2 hours in some cases. This, to me, is something new in the last year or so, and my long and generally pain-free relationship with low cost carriers is most definitely over. The latest was a 2 hour delay from Bilbao which the pilot blamed on the late arrival of the inbound aircraft. To me, that is not an acceptable excuse. It is saying the flight is late because the flight is late.
It seems to have become accepted and expected that there will be significant flight delays late in the day. But what way is that to run a service? And what is the penalty for the airline for a 90 minute delay? If the compensation only kicks in at 2 hours, then there is no incentive to run realistically scheduled services, so everyone runs late with no comeback.
What I would do is bring in legislation which penalises airlines which cannot meet their scheduled departure/arrival times within a certain margin. Otherwise I believe it is false advertising. So, for example, a flight must have to meet its scheduled arrival times within, say, 15 minutes, 75% of the time. It's like the laws preventing credit card companies from advertising a deal which only 5% of people would actually get. That was banned, and likewise unrealistic flight scheduling should be banned.
Just an idea.. Obviously there would be difficulties, e.g., ATC restrictions outside the airline's control, however, these known unknowns could be planned and catered for with some integrated planning with ATC and airlines to come up with realistic schedules.
However, the last 5 evening flights I've taken from European destinations to London have had delays in excess of 90 minutes, and up to 2 hours in some cases. This, to me, is something new in the last year or so, and my long and generally pain-free relationship with low cost carriers is most definitely over. The latest was a 2 hour delay from Bilbao which the pilot blamed on the late arrival of the inbound aircraft. To me, that is not an acceptable excuse. It is saying the flight is late because the flight is late.
It seems to have become accepted and expected that there will be significant flight delays late in the day. But what way is that to run a service? And what is the penalty for the airline for a 90 minute delay? If the compensation only kicks in at 2 hours, then there is no incentive to run realistically scheduled services, so everyone runs late with no comeback.
What I would do is bring in legislation which penalises airlines which cannot meet their scheduled departure/arrival times within a certain margin. Otherwise I believe it is false advertising. So, for example, a flight must have to meet its scheduled arrival times within, say, 15 minutes, 75% of the time. It's like the laws preventing credit card companies from advertising a deal which only 5% of people would actually get. That was banned, and likewise unrealistic flight scheduling should be banned.
Just an idea.. Obviously there would be difficulties, e.g., ATC restrictions outside the airline's control, however, these known unknowns could be planned and catered for with some integrated planning with ATC and airlines to come up with realistic schedules.
Originally Posted by billybedeveril
The latest was a 2 hour delay from Bilbao which the pilot blamed on the late arrival of the inbound aircraft. To me, that is not an acceptable excuse. It is saying the flight is late because the flight is late.
I've been flying low cost airlines to and from the UK, probably 20 times per year, for the last 10 years or so, mainly to/from Stansted, Gatwick and Luton. I just can't pass up some of the prices, and I accept the inevitable stress of travelling with low cost airlines from these airports.
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I can accept the delays but I wish certain airlines would be far more up-front about them! As normal, I've recently had delays of well over an hour flying back from Europe to the UK. In all cases at around departure time the flights were still showing on-time so the normal tedious queuing process started. In fact, the aircraft were just departing the UK on the outbound leg and it was hit and miss how the delays were reported (but in one case at Bremen with RYR people were queuing for around 70 mins)...bonkers!
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Myself and Mrs J fly often (Mrs J 55 flights in 18 months) all over the world and I can count on one hand the number of flights that have flown to the schedule.
None of the flights have been with any of the low cost airlines. Worst was a recent BA flight that was 2 hours late because a tug wasn't available so take off slot
missed and next one was 90 mins later!
Just a sign of the time I'm afraid and only going to get worse. No changes to the rules regarding time keep will make any difference.
None of the flights have been with any of the low cost airlines. Worst was a recent BA flight that was 2 hours late because a tug wasn't available so take off slot
missed and next one was 90 mins later!
Just a sign of the time I'm afraid and only going to get worse. No changes to the rules regarding time keep will make any difference.
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It is definitely getting worse - to the point that traveling on business I often get the flight before the one I'd have taken 20 years ago just to be reasonably certain. On long -haul if there is a critical time and place I have to be it's often getting the flight the day before. You cannot count on the timetables anymore - especially in E USA and Europe... and it's spreading to places like Dubai
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After six months of weekly travel I've gave up on EasyJet, it seems that around a third of the time their last flight was delayed. Problem for me was I needed to catch the last train* after the flight otherwise I was stuck. RyanAir always seem to be on time, but I was on their early flight.
Noticed that on my (old) route the prices increased for the summer schedule, so its just easier and not much more expensive to use a charter airway (KLM). Only had one slight delay in the last three months.
*often the train was also delayed, which will surprise nobody in the UK!
Noticed that on my (old) route the prices increased for the summer schedule, so its just easier and not much more expensive to use a charter airway (KLM). Only had one slight delay in the last three months.
*often the train was also delayed, which will surprise nobody in the UK!
If you are flying with an airline that provides a 4 sector day (or more) for any given hull, you can realistically expect a 'knock-on' delay by the time the aircraft starts its penultimate sector. It could be due to many things, and the reason given 'late arrival of the inbound aircraft' is often exactly what it is. It would be too easy to condemn any one factor (for example ATC working to rule (or not working at all!) ... hello Marseilles, I'm referring to you!!!!) when the delay can be caused by a variety of factors, all impinging on the flight at the same time.
Might it not be more reasonable to give yourself some extra margin and be kind to yourself when taking a flight? If all goes according to plan (or the published timetable) you have cause for rejoicing and if not, well you're more prepared and hopefully less stressed. If I know where my flight is arriving from, I do tend to use the internet to check the departures board at that aircraft to pre-warn ME of a likely delay ... and then accept that I have more time to fill. Airlines do not tend to warn passengers of late arrivals until the ETA is confirmed - usually once the plane is well down route, and certainly it's rare to be advised landside that a plane will be arriving late and therefore your outgoing flight will be late departing ... they want to get you through security and to the gate on time, regardless of whether you enjoy retail therapy en-route or not!
Both legacy and low-cost companies seem to experience delays. Whilst unpleasant, they cannot necessarily be avoided, and it's probably good to acquire some coping mechanisms to minimise stress. Another cup of coffee anyone?
Might it not be more reasonable to give yourself some extra margin and be kind to yourself when taking a flight? If all goes according to plan (or the published timetable) you have cause for rejoicing and if not, well you're more prepared and hopefully less stressed. If I know where my flight is arriving from, I do tend to use the internet to check the departures board at that aircraft to pre-warn ME of a likely delay ... and then accept that I have more time to fill. Airlines do not tend to warn passengers of late arrivals until the ETA is confirmed - usually once the plane is well down route, and certainly it's rare to be advised landside that a plane will be arriving late and therefore your outgoing flight will be late departing ... they want to get you through security and to the gate on time, regardless of whether you enjoy retail therapy en-route or not!
Both legacy and low-cost companies seem to experience delays. Whilst unpleasant, they cannot necessarily be avoided, and it's probably good to acquire some coping mechanisms to minimise stress. Another cup of coffee anyone?
If you are flying with an airline that provides a 4 sector day (or more) for any given hull, you can realistically expect a 'knock-on' delay by the time the aircraft starts its penultimate sector. It could be due to many things,
Airlines want tighter and tighter turns, both for reasons of aircraft utilisation and crew utilisation. A whole day’s trip, of say 4 sectors is predicated on minimum time on the ground (anything other than that is seen as being inefficient)...it is also not uncommon in some outfits to plan crew right up to the limits of maximum flight duty periods...there is no “fat” in the system.
Now in reality once the day start you get hit by slots, baggage offload, slow push backs, and almost right from the start of sector one the timings of the final sector of the day are a work of fiction...if it gets really bad you can be looking at replacing crew on the final sector because of duty limitations, and that in itself can build in a further delay.
The answer is to build in more fat (extra aircraft extra crew) ..but that costs....
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The truth is that from an en-route perspective, delays in the EU are getting worse. A few stats show that (based on the EC max delay target of 0.5 min/flight), to the end of May 2017, delay per flight in the EU network was 0.46 min (less than target so although not good for pax, falls within acceptable network performance tolerances). Compare that figure with end of May 2018 where delay per flight had increased to 1.05 min and the scale of the problem becomes apparent. Total delay for the whole of 2017 was 9.3 Million minutes but for the period Jan - May 2018 the figure is already 4.3 M (and we've not yet reach the summer season proper), which leads to a projected total delay for 2018 of 14.3M or 53% more delay than 2017 and this is forecast to increase year on year with no additional capacity available within the network, almost no additional runways planned (LHR 3 is not going to mitigate this problem), increased traffic flow through the SW corridor and a huge increase in capacity by the Loco's with no real ability to accommodate. Look at the Boeing and Airbus order books for RYR and U2 alone (then consider the other lowcost operators that didn't exist 5 or 10 years ago) and the number of new routes each opens almost each week and you quickly understand how this level of growth is simply not sustainable. There's also apparently a shortage of experienced pilots, definitely a shortage of air traffic controllers and severe constraints within the system but everyone wants more and the bottom line is that you can only sweat the assets so much before something breaks or else there's a sizable downturn in demand which as history has shown us, tends to happen in cycles in this industry.
Paxing All Over The World
The good news is that there is a sizeable downturn in demand just around the corner! Since the crash of 2008, no significant structural changes have been made in the financial world or government. Throughout these ten years, most govts (UK in particular have been printing money) Consequently, we have never really climbed out of that trench and the next crash is looming. Problem solved.
Last edited by PAXboy; 26th Jun 2018 at 09:48.
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Originally Posted by wiggy
+1
Airlines want tighter and tighter turns, both for reasons of aircraft utilisation and crew utilisation. A whole day’s trip, of say 4 sectors is predicated on minimum time on the ground (anything other than that is seen as being inefficient)...it is also not uncommon in some outfits to plan crew right up to the limits of maximum flight duty periods...there is no “fat” in the system.
Now in reality once the day start you get hit by slots, baggage offload, slow push backs, and almost right from the start of sector one the timings of the final sector of the day are a work of fiction...if it gets really bad you can be looking at replacing crew on the final sector because of duty limitations, and that in itself can build in a further delay.
The answer is to build in more fat (extra aircraft extra crew) ..but that costs....
I also agree with this being applicable to most airlines, and long-haul, but to me its exacerbated when short haul flights are delayed.
Paxing All Over The World
Labels can be changed so I don't take any, all I base my opinions on is watching the world. I am now 61 and have seen enough Booms and Busts to last a lifetime. I do think there are times when govt should support vital aspects of the country but politicians usually can't resist getting carrieed away. Even so called 'independent' banks do so - as they are run by the same thinking people. (The conincidence of thinking by those who have taken PPL at university ...)
Sadly, the next crash is likely to be bigger than the last since, as mentioned, nothing has changed and there is still a vast pile of Soverign debt and other systemic problems.
Sadly, the next crash is likely to be bigger than the last since, as mentioned, nothing has changed and there is still a vast pile of Soverign debt and other systemic problems.
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Originally Posted by PAXboy
Sadly, the next crash is likely to be bigger than the last since, as mentioned, nothing has changed and there is still a vast pile of Soverign debt and other systemic problems.
Originally Posted by billybedeveril
Wiggy, in response to building more fat into the timetables, isn't that fat already there within the airline/atc/airport system? I.e., the destination airport of the final sector is not normally closed even if the flight is 1-2 hours late,
Errr..don’t bet on it. Heathrow has late night landing restrictions and limitations that apply to even the local operators. Some airports (certainly on mainland Europe) are well known to shut up shop at a fixed time late late evening, regardless of late arrivals...or will stay open but charge an absolute fortune (and I mean serious money) because you have breached whatever the local night hours noise regulations are........
so why not just schedule the flights to depart at a realistic time so people can plan their onward journeys? suppose that the risk with that is you have an aircraft sitting on the ground, but if the flight departs, on average, say 30 minutes late, why not schedule the departure time 30 minutes later? That's what I don't understand..
As for crew implications -one example... In the event of an unforeseen long working day with delays resulting in a crew being slightly beyond the duty hours limit the operation might get held together (and people get to destination) because of captain’s discretion to extend working hours...but only he/she can do that at the time, on the day ( I’d add the authority might start to take an interest if it happens on the same trip every day).
OTOH the company can’t plan on using that self same discretion ahead of time, so if the company starts to build “delays” into their rosters/timetables unless their current rate of crew utilisation (in terms of duty hours on an average day) is relatively low they will find they need more crew.
Last edited by wiggy; 26th Jun 2018 at 08:45.
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Only resigned to the practicalities. If you want cheap flights you pay in potential delays
at the top end you want to be CERTAIN Of your flight you hire a private jet... simple...
at the top end you want to be CERTAIN Of your flight you hire a private jet... simple...
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Private jets are not immune to ATC delays. We can be "flexible" but ATC issues still dick us around.
This summer has been pretty bad with strikes (Yes, that's France mainly) and ATC shortages around Europe plus capacity issues.
This summer has been pretty bad with strikes (Yes, that's France mainly) and ATC shortages around Europe plus capacity issues.
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My regular LCC commute is with Eurowings from DUS to BHX. I average around 20 sectors per year with them alone. Since January 2017 to this day more than 60% of my flights have been delayed in excess of 30 minutes and anything up to 3hrs. It has become a major source of frustration. I'm of the opinion that it is quite simply because of their very tight planned turnaround times in order to maximise aircraft utilisation. There are no longer sufficient buffers incorporated in an aircraft's daily scheduled rotations to recover from any delays which may be picked up during the day.
