PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - European Delays Getting Worse?
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Old 25th Jun 2018, 13:45
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Reverserbucket
 
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The truth is that from an en-route perspective, delays in the EU are getting worse. A few stats show that (based on the EC max delay target of 0.5 min/flight), to the end of May 2017, delay per flight in the EU network was 0.46 min (less than target so although not good for pax, falls within acceptable network performance tolerances). Compare that figure with end of May 2018 where delay per flight had increased to 1.05 min and the scale of the problem becomes apparent. Total delay for the whole of 2017 was 9.3 Million minutes but for the period Jan - May 2018 the figure is already 4.3 M (and we've not yet reach the summer season proper), which leads to a projected total delay for 2018 of 14.3M or 53% more delay than 2017 and this is forecast to increase year on year with no additional capacity available within the network, almost no additional runways planned (LHR 3 is not going to mitigate this problem), increased traffic flow through the SW corridor and a huge increase in capacity by the Loco's with no real ability to accommodate. Look at the Boeing and Airbus order books for RYR and U2 alone (then consider the other lowcost operators that didn't exist 5 or 10 years ago) and the number of new routes each opens almost each week and you quickly understand how this level of growth is simply not sustainable. There's also apparently a shortage of experienced pilots, definitely a shortage of air traffic controllers and severe constraints within the system but everyone wants more and the bottom line is that you can only sweat the assets so much before something breaks or else there's a sizable downturn in demand which as history has shown us, tends to happen in cycles in this industry.
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