Snow and bad vis at Heathrow - who decides what is cancelled?
Fly Conventional Gear
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Snow and bad vis at Heathrow - who decides what is cancelled?
When Heathrow has to clear runways or reduce the flow rate due to low visibility ops what is the process for deciding what is cancelled and what is given priority to operate? Is it simply decided by the airport operator or done in co-operation with the airlines or just the airlines making the decisions?
And are there any conventions that are followed when working out what is cancelled like for example domestic before international, departures before arrivals etc or different airlines being given priority?
Just curious to know how it really works when the system is under pressure, I mean it all seems rather arbitrary from the point of view of the passengers.
And are there any conventions that are followed when working out what is cancelled like for example domestic before international, departures before arrivals etc or different airlines being given priority?
Just curious to know how it really works when the system is under pressure, I mean it all seems rather arbitrary from the point of view of the passengers.
Been discussed here more than once previously but basically this is how it happens.
1. Media is given the story that all operators are reduced by a figure, typically 20-50%, for certain hours.
2. BA then cancel way more than this standard percentage assigned to each operator, for reasons that no informed commentators can understand.
3. As a result remaining operators then find they can operate, albeit with delays, 100% of their normal schedule.
4. Statements in the media next day that BA has cancelled "some" short-haul flights to protect their long-haul flights.
5. Analysis shows this is not so.
See here regarding the last time this happened :
http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airpo...ml#post7642276
1. Media is given the story that all operators are reduced by a figure, typically 20-50%, for certain hours.
2. BA then cancel way more than this standard percentage assigned to each operator, for reasons that no informed commentators can understand.
3. As a result remaining operators then find they can operate, albeit with delays, 100% of their normal schedule.
4. Statements in the media next day that BA has cancelled "some" short-haul flights to protect their long-haul flights.
5. Analysis shows this is not so.
See here regarding the last time this happened :
http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airpo...ml#post7642276
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Or you could believe that the predictive system put in by the late Philip Langsdale as part of the ATC system, actually determines how best to keep the airport moving based around the flight schedules, weather patterns and available slots.
He gave a presentation at the IET in 2012 on the optimisation of traffic schedules etc at LHR which gave some insight on how the actual air space and ground space is managed on a minute by minute basis.
Sadly, Philip died early in 2013 unexpectedly.
He gave a presentation at the IET in 2012 on the optimisation of traffic schedules etc at LHR which gave some insight on how the actual air space and ground space is managed on a minute by minute basis.
Sadly, Philip died early in 2013 unexpectedly.
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Mystery
Well it's a mystery to me.
19 Feb a friend was booked on the 09:20 Lufthansa flight from Heathrow to Munich; on the very same morning I looked on the LH web site and saw that the flight was cancelled, supposedly due to fog.
We rushed off to Heathrow in the hope of getting on the 07:20. However the M25 was completely snarled up due to an accident somewhere beyond Heathrow. Fortunately on the way I called LH, who informed me that she had been re-booked on the 07:20. The only problem was that LH had completely failed to inform us, either by e-mail or text message.
On arrival at Heathrow, there seemed to be little sign of any fog.
The point is this: LH managed to operate the 07:20 and every other flight to Munich that day, but cancelled the 09:20. Call me cynical, but I think they may be using the weather as an excuse to cancel flights which are not heavily booked.
Fortunately she got a restaurant voucher from LH - although we had to ask for it; it wasn't offered directly!
19 Feb a friend was booked on the 09:20 Lufthansa flight from Heathrow to Munich; on the very same morning I looked on the LH web site and saw that the flight was cancelled, supposedly due to fog.
We rushed off to Heathrow in the hope of getting on the 07:20. However the M25 was completely snarled up due to an accident somewhere beyond Heathrow. Fortunately on the way I called LH, who informed me that she had been re-booked on the 07:20. The only problem was that LH had completely failed to inform us, either by e-mail or text message.
On arrival at Heathrow, there seemed to be little sign of any fog.
The point is this: LH managed to operate the 07:20 and every other flight to Munich that day, but cancelled the 09:20. Call me cynical, but I think they may be using the weather as an excuse to cancel flights which are not heavily booked.
Fortunately she got a restaurant voucher from LH - although we had to ask for it; it wasn't offered directly!
Last edited by chrissw; 22nd Feb 2013 at 12:13. Reason: Corrected the spelling of "voucher."
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It is possible the LH's slot (either inbound or outbound or both) was cancelled 'proactively' as fog was anticipated at an earlier hour. Or their outbound flight was cancelled due fog in Munich.
That doesn't excuse LH's handling of course. However it is possible that LH did not have her contact numbers. When you book through a travel agent they often will not provide same to the airline.
There is no obligation that they must offer a voucher, although they are obligated to provide one. (Yet another example of the poor language of Regulation 261
That doesn't excuse LH's handling of course. However it is possible that LH did not have her contact numbers. When you book through a travel agent they often will not provide same to the airline.
There is no obligation that they must offer a voucher, although they are obligated to provide one. (Yet another example of the poor language of Regulation 261
LH managed to operate the 07:20 and every other flight to Munich that day, but cancelled the 09:20. Call me cynical, but I think they may be using the weather as an excuse to cancel flights which are not heavily booked.
The first LH due in on Tuesday morning (08:30) was one of that day's 36 cancelled arrivals, so there wasn't an aircraft to operate your 09:20 departure.
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conferences.theiet.org/appleton/-documents/langsdale-slides.cfm
is hopefully a link to Philip's interesting slides.
It shows how complicated the communications between the organisations in the airport community are and the need for better collaboration to avoid a repetition of the snow shambles.
is hopefully a link to Philip's interesting slides.
It shows how complicated the communications between the organisations in the airport community are and the need for better collaboration to avoid a repetition of the snow shambles.
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Forecast for next Monday morning looks pretty dire (at least by Heathrow standards !).
I wonder what the chances are of sorting out the precautionary capacity reductions and de-icing regimes in advance this time ?
Will the decision-makers make decisions over the weekend ?
I wonder what the chances are of sorting out the precautionary capacity reductions and de-icing regimes in advance this time ?
Will the decision-makers make decisions over the weekend ?
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Not being a professional, I looked at the BBC and Weather Underground sites for next Monday. Neither forecasts anything more serious than showers with fairly light winds.
What have you seen that they haven't?
SFS
Not being a professional, I looked at the BBC and Weather Underground sites for next Monday. Neither forecasts anything more serious than showers with fairly light winds.
What have you seen that they haven't?
SFS
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The Express has caught up now :
Big freeze blasts back: Snow, rain and gales sweep UK | UK | News | Daily Express
and reports :
"London’s Heathrow airport said it has 185 snowploughs and 500 staff on standby to clear any snow."
But I think it had the snow ploughs for the last debacle of overnight "sleeping" in T5. Have BA got to the bottom of the de-icing and re-scheduling issues ?
Big freeze blasts back: Snow, rain and gales sweep UK | UK | News | Daily Express
and reports :
"London’s Heathrow airport said it has 185 snowploughs and 500 staff on standby to clear any snow."
But I think it had the snow ploughs for the last debacle of overnight "sleeping" in T5. Have BA got to the bottom of the de-icing and re-scheduling issues ?
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118.70
The forecasts certainly seem to be tending towards snow on Monday (though not yet the BBC). I should still like to know where your original forecast came from as, if it does snow at Heathrow on Monday, it will have been proved to have been more accurate than others that far ahead.
SFS
The forecasts certainly seem to be tending towards snow on Monday (though not yet the BBC). I should still like to know where your original forecast came from as, if it does snow at Heathrow on Monday, it will have been proved to have been more accurate than others that far ahead.
SFS
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The GFS ensembles had converged to be pretty confident of the considerable cooling when I did the original post. xcweather was then predicting precipitation as snow (although in pretty small quantities) overnight Sunday into early morning Monday.
The cold will happen - whether the clouds bring snow is much more hit and miss for Monday.......
The cold will happen - whether the clouds bring snow is much more hit and miss for Monday.......
