A380 - Commercial Failure?
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A380 - Commercial Failure?
Personally, as a potential passenger, I think its too big. I do not like the idea of arriving, flying and processing through security, immigration and customs with 550 or more fellow passengers.
My concerns are statistical. Leaving aside the probability that airline management will further prune cabin staff/passenger ratios, and check in staff /passenger ratios, compared to a 250 seat aircraft, load factors being equal, there is more than twice the chance that:
1) There will be a medical emergency on board, with the attendant possibility of diversion and delay.
2)There will be an air rage incident with someone getting drunk, diversion or delay.
3) Some idiot will jokingly make a bomb threat or some white knuckle flyers will mistake a guy singing along to his MP3 player as a terrorist chanting to Allah. More diversion and delay.
4) There will be a real bomb threat from someone who doesn't like the French or the English.
5)There will be more than one football team on the aircraft and they decide to take each other on, in flight, more diversion or delay.
6) Idiot passenger who doesnt understand English or whatever language misses a boarding call and can't be found, necessitating more delay as the bags are found and unloaded.
7) Idiot family doesn't have Visa's and documentation, thus closing a check in counter for an hour as the entire staff and supervisor focuses on solving their problems.
8) Idiot passengers clog up and delay security screening by not speaking english, carrying laptops that must be screened, leatherman tools etc. etc.
9) Idiot passengers with 55 lbs of carry on baggage that has to be stowed in the hold, more delay.
10) Immigration lanes clogged up with fifteen Pakistani families arriving on the same aircraft without proper documentation, more delay.
11) Homeland Security discovers a passenger with a suspicious name on a watch list - more delay.
12) My bags will be last off the aircraft, more delay.
13) There will be 550 people in front of me in the Queue for a taxi. Yet more delay.
Since one of these things happens to me about every second flight, it will happen on average every flight in an A380. This aircraft can never be on time, or if it does, its a 13 to 1 miracle!
There is an old saying "He travels fastest who travels alone". Travelling on a 250 seat aircraft is therefore 250 times slower than travelling alone. Travelling on an A380 is going to be 550 times slower, unless check in, immigration, customs and baggage handling staff double their performance, which seems highly unlikely.
Can anyone explain why, as a passenger, I should rejoice at the coming of the A380? From where I would sit (steerage, down the back) there is nothing good to look forward to.
Boeing's B787 Dreamliner seems a more sensible solution to congestion.
My concerns are statistical. Leaving aside the probability that airline management will further prune cabin staff/passenger ratios, and check in staff /passenger ratios, compared to a 250 seat aircraft, load factors being equal, there is more than twice the chance that:
1) There will be a medical emergency on board, with the attendant possibility of diversion and delay.
2)There will be an air rage incident with someone getting drunk, diversion or delay.
3) Some idiot will jokingly make a bomb threat or some white knuckle flyers will mistake a guy singing along to his MP3 player as a terrorist chanting to Allah. More diversion and delay.
4) There will be a real bomb threat from someone who doesn't like the French or the English.
5)There will be more than one football team on the aircraft and they decide to take each other on, in flight, more diversion or delay.
6) Idiot passenger who doesnt understand English or whatever language misses a boarding call and can't be found, necessitating more delay as the bags are found and unloaded.
7) Idiot family doesn't have Visa's and documentation, thus closing a check in counter for an hour as the entire staff and supervisor focuses on solving their problems.
8) Idiot passengers clog up and delay security screening by not speaking english, carrying laptops that must be screened, leatherman tools etc. etc.
9) Idiot passengers with 55 lbs of carry on baggage that has to be stowed in the hold, more delay.
10) Immigration lanes clogged up with fifteen Pakistani families arriving on the same aircraft without proper documentation, more delay.
11) Homeland Security discovers a passenger with a suspicious name on a watch list - more delay.
12) My bags will be last off the aircraft, more delay.
13) There will be 550 people in front of me in the Queue for a taxi. Yet more delay.
Since one of these things happens to me about every second flight, it will happen on average every flight in an A380. This aircraft can never be on time, or if it does, its a 13 to 1 miracle!
There is an old saying "He travels fastest who travels alone". Travelling on a 250 seat aircraft is therefore 250 times slower than travelling alone. Travelling on an A380 is going to be 550 times slower, unless check in, immigration, customs and baggage handling staff double their performance, which seems highly unlikely.
Can anyone explain why, as a passenger, I should rejoice at the coming of the A380? From where I would sit (steerage, down the back) there is nothing good to look forward to.
Boeing's B787 Dreamliner seems a more sensible solution to congestion.
>1) There will be a medical emergency on board, with the attendant possibility of diversion and delay.
2)There will be an air rage incident with someone getting drunk, diversion or delay.<
Solutions:-
1) Put a suitable number of qualified para medics on all flights
2) Put a suitable number of Security Personnel (aka Bouncers) on board to deal with problem passengers.
2)There will be an air rage incident with someone getting drunk, diversion or delay.<
Solutions:-
1) Put a suitable number of qualified para medics on all flights
2) Put a suitable number of Security Personnel (aka Bouncers) on board to deal with problem passengers.
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Most of these points have more to do with the airport than the aircraft. If the airports make no attempt to ramp up services to suit the numbers, of course there will be problems, but it is no worse than two 747s arriving at about the same time.
Regarding in-flight issues, you will now have twice as many flight attendants, so a statistically better chance of being able to deal with isolated problems. Much easier to withstrain a few unruly pax with 20+ cabin crew.
Plus, of course, the cabin crew could form a football team of their own, complete with reserves and coaching staff...
My main concern would be just how many people will be able to successfully exit the aircraft down the slides from the upper deck, in windy conditions. I suspect that many could fall off the slide to certain death or injury, as those slides look like they will whip around in any significant wind.
But I suppose I can console myself with the thought of all the hours I can spend in the in-flight gym, pumping aluminium...
Regarding in-flight issues, you will now have twice as many flight attendants, so a statistically better chance of being able to deal with isolated problems. Much easier to withstrain a few unruly pax with 20+ cabin crew.
Plus, of course, the cabin crew could form a football team of their own, complete with reserves and coaching staff...
My main concern would be just how many people will be able to successfully exit the aircraft down the slides from the upper deck, in windy conditions. I suspect that many could fall off the slide to certain death or injury, as those slides look like they will whip around in any significant wind.
But I suppose I can console myself with the thought of all the hours I can spend in the in-flight gym, pumping aluminium...
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Another cause for delay:
Sunfish himself occupying the flight attendants with outrageous demands and neverending whining. Just stay home "mate", and you'll never have to expose yourself to anything that's not "Ostrine".
Like someone said, it's airport capacity that can cause congestion, not which piece of metal we all arrive on if it happens to be at the same time.
Came back to my homebase a few days ago at the same time as three other widebodies. Talk about congestion.
Sunfish himself occupying the flight attendants with outrageous demands and neverending whining. Just stay home "mate", and you'll never have to expose yourself to anything that's not "Ostrine".
Like someone said, it's airport capacity that can cause congestion, not which piece of metal we all arrive on if it happens to be at the same time.
Came back to my homebase a few days ago at the same time as three other widebodies. Talk about congestion.
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What tosh..
When the first train lurched into motion it was preceeded by someone waving a red flag, now they flood daily into Waterloo and Grand Central with plenty more than an A380 load and a noticeable absence of ambulances carting off the sick passengers. I think this is called progress.
Furthermore I will be a lot happier sitting in a shiny new A380 instead of a clapped out 30 yr old jumbo with a history of metal fatigue, bits dropping off, even breaking up in the air or going bang because the fuel tanks are wired up wrong... New planes mean new specs and better materials, from which we all benefit.
Don't be surprised to see A380's doing the Jersey bouncer one day at $10 a head !! (Ok they might have to extend the runway a bit first).
Congestion though will be an issue, mostly in the arrivals hall and immigration, and that will take some time to fix !! Airports are due a major rethink...
Furthermore I will be a lot happier sitting in a shiny new A380 instead of a clapped out 30 yr old jumbo with a history of metal fatigue, bits dropping off, even breaking up in the air or going bang because the fuel tanks are wired up wrong... New planes mean new specs and better materials, from which we all benefit.
Don't be surprised to see A380's doing the Jersey bouncer one day at $10 a head !! (Ok they might have to extend the runway a bit first).
Congestion though will be an issue, mostly in the arrivals hall and immigration, and that will take some time to fix !! Airports are due a major rethink...
Sunfish,
A380 is not meant for tiny places that cannot support it. Airports around the world are racing around the clock to upgrade themselves to accomodate her.
Most of your points are what if and most of them already has a way to deal with it as it has happen almost on a daily basis. When the pax have trouble,you can be flying a Piper Novajo,they will still have the same trouble.
Just one positive point for you to think, if a bomb goes off in A380,you will more likely to live than a smaller jet.
A380 is not meant for tiny places that cannot support it. Airports around the world are racing around the clock to upgrade themselves to accomodate her.
Most of your points are what if and most of them already has a way to deal with it as it has happen almost on a daily basis. When the pax have trouble,you can be flying a Piper Novajo,they will still have the same trouble.
Just one positive point for you to think, if a bomb goes off in A380,you will more likely to live than a smaller jet.
"Just one positive point for you to think, if a bomb goes off in A380,you will more likely to live than a smaller jet"
Can you provide supporting data for your claim or you simply yanking my lariot?
Can you provide supporting data for your claim or you simply yanking my lariot?
The same was said of the 747.
What amuses me most is the photos from inside the new beast - a glass 'feature wall' with water running down it is going to be very safe in a crash, isnt it?
Bars with wine glasses lined up, and bottles placed artistically around the bar... Right. Even light turbulence is going to wobble them all around, and a moderate lump is going to knock them all to the floor.
All this 'extra space' on board is all well and good, but I cant help but think of how many seats a low cost carrier could cram in if they wanted to stuff it to the gills...
What amuses me most is the photos from inside the new beast - a glass 'feature wall' with water running down it is going to be very safe in a crash, isnt it?
Bars with wine glasses lined up, and bottles placed artistically around the bar... Right. Even light turbulence is going to wobble them all around, and a moderate lump is going to knock them all to the floor.
All this 'extra space' on board is all well and good, but I cant help but think of how many seats a low cost carrier could cram in if they wanted to stuff it to the gills...
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Depends on the size of the bomb, surely?
On another note:
Airbus Announces A3XXXXXXX
Airbus Industrie today announced their new airliner.
The new aircraft, that can seat 4,000, comes complete with a small hospital, tennis courts, and a shopping mall.
Airports are racing to build new runways to suit the aircraft, which will not use traditional teminal gates, but will be marshalled to a remote stand where it will become a small town.
Officials said that they are continuing to examine ways of processing immigration and customs formalities. It is expected that the journey will take 12 hours, but the collection of baggage and clearing of customs and immigration will take three days.
The aircraft will be built of styrofoam and old, ground-up coffee cups. Taxiing the aircraft is expected to be "challenging".
On another note:
Airbus Announces A3XXXXXXX
Airbus Industrie today announced their new airliner.
The new aircraft, that can seat 4,000, comes complete with a small hospital, tennis courts, and a shopping mall.
Airports are racing to build new runways to suit the aircraft, which will not use traditional teminal gates, but will be marshalled to a remote stand where it will become a small town.
Officials said that they are continuing to examine ways of processing immigration and customs formalities. It is expected that the journey will take 12 hours, but the collection of baggage and clearing of customs and immigration will take three days.
The aircraft will be built of styrofoam and old, ground-up coffee cups. Taxiing the aircraft is expected to be "challenging".
Eight Gun Fighter
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"In Seattle, home to a sizable part of rival Boeing's operations, nobody seemed overly worried about the fact that the A380 actually flies.
The super-jumbo is "a very large airplane for a very small market," Boeing spokesman Jim Condelles said. "It's an engineering accomplishment that Airbus should be very proud of," he said. "We just don't see a market for 1,250 of these airplanes over the next 20 years."
Mr. Condelles was referring to Airbus's global market forecast for very large jets. Boeing sees demand for just 400 jets with 450 seats or more. If Airbus is right, it could enjoy a near-monopoly in that market while Boeing scrambles to catch up.
But some industry experts think Airbus -- which is almost certain to outsell Boeing for a second consecutive year in 2005 -- is more likely to end up with egg on its face after spending some €12-billion ($19.4-billion) over 11 years to develop the A380, including €1.45-billion in cost overruns.
"Airbus is being incredibly optimistic," said Frank Werner, an airline management specialist at Fordham University's business school in New York. "I don't think they're going to sell enough planes in a short enough time to make it financially viable."
Airbus has orders for 154 super-jumbos and has said it needs 100 more to recover its investment. But the weak U.S. dollar -- the currency in which passenger planes are sold -- and rumours of heavy discounts on the A380's $282-million (U.S.) sticker price have fuelled reports that the real break-even point may be higher -- possibly three times what Airbus says."
Globe and Mail
The super-jumbo is "a very large airplane for a very small market," Boeing spokesman Jim Condelles said. "It's an engineering accomplishment that Airbus should be very proud of," he said. "We just don't see a market for 1,250 of these airplanes over the next 20 years."
Mr. Condelles was referring to Airbus's global market forecast for very large jets. Boeing sees demand for just 400 jets with 450 seats or more. If Airbus is right, it could enjoy a near-monopoly in that market while Boeing scrambles to catch up.
But some industry experts think Airbus -- which is almost certain to outsell Boeing for a second consecutive year in 2005 -- is more likely to end up with egg on its face after spending some €12-billion ($19.4-billion) over 11 years to develop the A380, including €1.45-billion in cost overruns.
"Airbus is being incredibly optimistic," said Frank Werner, an airline management specialist at Fordham University's business school in New York. "I don't think they're going to sell enough planes in a short enough time to make it financially viable."
Airbus has orders for 154 super-jumbos and has said it needs 100 more to recover its investment. But the weak U.S. dollar -- the currency in which passenger planes are sold -- and rumours of heavy discounts on the A380's $282-million (U.S.) sticker price have fuelled reports that the real break-even point may be higher -- possibly three times what Airbus says."
Globe and Mail
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I am assuming that Sunfish posted with tongue firmly in cheek......no?!?
There are many issues which will be interesting to observe as the A380 saga unfolds. The biggest for me is its commerical viability and the opposing strategy that Boeing has taken.
But Sunfish's first paragraph is just silly - concerns about 550 other people going through security and immigration together? Last time I was a passenger going through a customs check, about five B744's had just emptied and we managed to get through alive
There are many issues which will be interesting to observe as the A380 saga unfolds. The biggest for me is its commerical viability and the opposing strategy that Boeing has taken.
But Sunfish's first paragraph is just silly - concerns about 550 other people going through security and immigration together? Last time I was a passenger going through a customs check, about five B744's had just emptied and we managed to get through alive
Thread Starter
My point is, as a humble bit of self loading freight is exactly why I would prefer to fly in this thing rather than my preferred mode of transport, an A340?
I agree that two 747's landing together will stress immigration even now in some places.
However I'm only partly tongue in cheek.
I remember very well from the army days how fast you can move a small body of troops compared to a battalion - and these were trained people.
Statistically, the more people who are travelling together, the wider the "spread" of their velocities, and by definition, the aircraft cannot leave until the slowest is on board. I'm not talking about wheelchair pax either. This must mean that boarding an A380 must take more time per passenger than smaller aircraft unless facilities are seriously improved.
The difficulty of moving 500+ people through check-in, security, immigration and boarding is going to be an issue, especially the "wandering passenger" phenomenon which I'm not sure any number of ground staff can solve.
I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
I agree that two 747's landing together will stress immigration even now in some places.
However I'm only partly tongue in cheek.
I remember very well from the army days how fast you can move a small body of troops compared to a battalion - and these were trained people.
Statistically, the more people who are travelling together, the wider the "spread" of their velocities, and by definition, the aircraft cannot leave until the slowest is on board. I'm not talking about wheelchair pax either. This must mean that boarding an A380 must take more time per passenger than smaller aircraft unless facilities are seriously improved.
The difficulty of moving 500+ people through check-in, security, immigration and boarding is going to be an issue, especially the "wandering passenger" phenomenon which I'm not sure any number of ground staff can solve.
I hope to be pleasantly surprised.
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As mentioned above, the same fears were voiced when the 747 came to life...let's wait and see...wonder what Emirates is going to do with 50 of them???
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I have to agree with the time and motion notion behind Sunfish's initial rant, the light racism not withstanding. I've been stuck behind a few fellow Aussies in HLR arguing the toss over Grandad,Grannies and workvisas! But my biggest issue is with being stuck in downstairs middle row back, no longer in any way shape or form enjoying the only real joy of long haul, the view of the world below, and breathing the re-cycled exhalation of 549 other souls. Will the A380 have these new auto darkening window panels as well?
Will there be a premium fare for window seats, and does any true 'plane-spotter know how many windows there are going to be,in relation to the number of SLF seats? cheers,j/x
Will there be a premium fare for window seats, and does any true 'plane-spotter know how many windows there are going to be,in relation to the number of SLF seats?
cheers,j/x
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.......there is more than twice the chance that:
1) There will be a medical emergency on board...........
1) There will be a medical emergency on board...........
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Always interesting when American so called "experts" speak out about Airbus and the live-or-die scenarios of the A380.
Whenever somebody with stars-and-stripes on their shades speaks out about something not built in the land of the free, you can be sure any objectivity is gone. Just look at Dubya and Rummie, "Dumb & Dumber" comes to mind.
Whenever somebody with stars-and-stripes on their shades speaks out about something not built in the land of the free, you can be sure any objectivity is gone. Just look at Dubya and Rummie, "Dumb & Dumber" comes to mind.
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sunfish, every single point you mention is entirely valid for air travel now and has no bearing on the A380.
The exception is:
After all, what if you got to the taxi rank after 2 loads of 747s had arrived?
The exception is:
13) There will be 550 people in front of me in the Queue for a taxi. Yet more delay.