"In Seattle, home to a sizable part of rival Boeing's operations, nobody seemed overly worried about the fact that the A380 actually flies.
The super-jumbo is "a very large airplane for a very small market," Boeing spokesman Jim Condelles said. "It's an engineering accomplishment that Airbus should be very proud of," he said. "We just don't see a market for 1,250 of these airplanes over the next 20 years."
Mr. Condelles was referring to Airbus's global market forecast for very large jets. Boeing sees demand for just 400 jets with 450 seats or more. If Airbus is right, it could enjoy a near-monopoly in that market while Boeing scrambles to catch up.
But some industry experts think Airbus -- which is almost certain to outsell Boeing for a second consecutive year in 2005 -- is more likely to end up with egg on its face after spending some €12-billion ($19.4-billion) over 11 years to develop the A380, including €1.45-billion in cost overruns.
"Airbus is being incredibly optimistic," said Frank Werner, an airline management specialist at Fordham University's business school in New York. "I don't think they're going to sell enough planes in a short enough time to make it financially viable."
Airbus has orders for 154 super-jumbos and has said it needs 100 more to recover its investment. But the weak U.S. dollar -- the currency in which passenger planes are sold -- and rumours of heavy discounts on the A380's $282-million (U.S.) sticker price have fuelled reports that the real break-even point may be higher -- possibly three times what Airbus says."
Globe and Mail