I’ve been reading more medical articles than I should on this - but I do have some time on my hands...

The ‘normal’ flu has about a 0.1 % mortality rate - Covid has been harder to judge (lots of people not tested or such minor symptoms they didn’t know they had it) , but at best 1% and at worst 3-4% mortality - Per year this means about 3-4 hundred thousand deaths for a normal flu, and about 30+ million for Covid .

That and the fact it will come in various waves means the health system wouldn’t handle it, and doctors are left deciding who to let live and die due to shortages of ventilators.

I’d say flight training for GA/airline pilots would struggle to prove itself as ‘essential’ at the moment and it is a very good environment for virus transmission .

The problem is unlike the CAA of NZ; CASA has made no comments regarding if Flight training and Private Flights should or should not be operating. People who think Flight training or alike are essential services are dreaming, but without clear and concise statements from CASA or the Aus Government they'll keep operating.

I thought the PM said that anyone with a job is an essential service. Did I mis-hear that?

Spare a thought for RAAF ground crew. They can’t do distancing either.

As for death rates - the definitive figures wont be known for years. Hopefully not worse than seasonal flu. I think I understand that the figure will come from serology - antibody studies from large samples.

- The death rate is (currently) far worse than the flu. 0.1% vs 3% - and 800000+ is a good enough sample size - saying that too many wouldn’t have been tested and many would be recovered not knowing they had it.

- it’s much worse if you’re old (over 12 times more likely to die than normal flu of over 85)

its R0 number is higher (people infected per person)

but mostly we don’t have a vaccine nor do we understand how it will behave if it inevitably mutates (all viruses mutate - sometimes it’s a good thing , sometimes not) either way it makes it harder to creates vaccine.

I think lining up and doing what we’re told (cooperating) isn’t always a bad thing - and I still say a cockpit environment is ripe for the spread..

At least a dozen FTA aircraft out flying right now.
Maybe they're all building solo hours?

From my friend, Dr Brent Blue in the USA recently:

"People are going to die regardless of the current intervention

Flattening the curve will only save some lives.

Let me explain those two statements. Anytime a virus is new to the world’s population, there is no immunity. When a respiratory virus spreads through the population, people with underlying medical issues (particularly in the elderly, smokers, COPD, diabetes, obesity, cardiac disease, & kidney disease) are going to get sick and many of them will die. This will happen now or will happen over the next months or years. It is a terrible thing to say but that is what is going to happen. We can slow it down, but it is still going to happen.

By flattening the curve, it will prevent overloading of medical resources which saves lives mostly by saving non Covid patients who need intensive care resources and Covid patients by preventing medical personnel from having to decide which of two SURVIVABLE patients will the get the resources. Flattening the curve may DELAY people getting sick allowing for treatments to be developed which may help but treatments are months down line at best. (Treatments are more likely to be developed before a vaccine.)

This is going to be a long haul for all of us. Mental and physical health are going to be key given the length of time social distancing may be in place. At least in Jackson, we have the ability to get outside and exercise. Call or Skype/Zoom with friends and family. We are all in this and it will probably be harder than we all think.

Emerg+A+Care Covid Testing Numbers as of 3/31
88 Patients Tested
8 Positive
15 Pending from today’s testing
If you want to be tested, the easiest way is to call ahead (307-733-8002). They will send you a registration form by Email. Fill it out and return, then drive up. A medical assistant will come out to your car to be swabbed."

You are correct LB. Any one that still has a job is an essential worker. The problem is the media beat up of essential v non-essential. They did the same thing with the closures of schools and caused nothing but confusion for all. The best thing to do is refer directly to the government websites that have the restrictions clearly stated. Flight training organisations are an education that cant be conducted remotely, hence can still operate.

Well you can drive somewhere to exercise so I was thinking I could fly to Wahring with the dog and we could the walk around the paddock there...ok?

Umm you know more than me. Does your interpretation of the new rules allow that?

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sites/de...ections%20.pdf

If it’s a working dog, that should be OK. :)

Yep you can leave yr property to excersise, doesn't say you can't drive to that place for same. You can also go drive to meet a friend etc ( one only) for a coffee/drink where coffee etc is available! The airspace is not closed and the rules/laws don't explicitly say you can't go flying!

My understanding is that you can fly with your dog if you are in the process of collecting a jigsaw puzzle.
Source - Scotty from Marketing

This is why problems get out of hand: Confused messages that have been misheard.

The exception is that you can fly with your dog if you are in the process of collecting a chainsaw nozzle.

Get with the program, joseph!