Oh!!!!!!....... Ummm...... I see!!!!!!

Can anyone explain to me how 100kg of water in the fuselage could do that?
...what's the maximum fuel imbalance allowable between the wings? 2-300lb?

The idea that the fuse was full of water (100 lts of water ffs) and that it somehow magically caused the aeroplane to yaw sideways and crash into the DFO strikes me as beyond fanciful. :mad:

I didn't say it was, only that it would do it, if the CoG is way beyond the aft limit, then the aircraft will be unstable around all 3 axis, not just pitch. Water is particularly bad because it is fluid and constantly moving the CoG for and aft left to right in addition to induced aerodynamic changes. A computer simulation will show you.
In light of DF's preceding post, if correct concludes my "any further" investigative thoughts

I doubt the water scenario would be the case- flight path, speeds and altitudes in the plot don't seem to indicate that (to me anyway). One would expect a steeper climb, more rapid speed loss, then stall. Divergence like what is plotted from centreline as soon as it lifts off is not very likely to indicate a CofG issue, in my opinion.
It's been a while since I've had the guts out of a B200 but from memory water wouldn't exactly flow to the back so rapidly. If I moved a large passenger from the front to the baggage compartment during rotation it wouldn't result in this.

Horatio, maximum fuel imbalance in a B200 is 1000lbs. If it is fitted with wing lockers the imbalance is reduced, if memory serves me well it's by the capacity of the lockers which I think is about 300lbs- don't quote me though it's been a while.
Have flown them with 500lbs imbalance. Not a big deal.

Sideways during the takeoff roll DF? Interesting. Any idea as to how accurate that is by way of was it all three wheels on the ground or it was already rotating and its then started to go off the side whilst getting airborne?

I'm not going to go into the technicalities of operating the B200, but if the pilot had no stand out medical issues and the aircraft was serviceable, could this accident be as simple as a distraction in the cockpit or cabin at the wrong time ie: the pilot or passengers phone ringing or an incoming text message? Yes, I know that all phones should be switched off, but I know plenty of pilot's who have their phones on at all times and this is not just a GA issue.

It could have been caused by a European wasp loose in the cabin.

Pretty pointless speculating in the absence of more facts, is it not?

Or maybe snakes on a plane?

My mother used to say that its better to say nothing and look a fool, than open your mouth and prove it.

The bottom line is that something catastrophic happened that Max was unable to deal with in the available time. And I challenge anybody who thinks they would have done better.

After the ATSB releases its report, the report is challenged & debunked then the ATSB repeats the investigation and releases a second report, then we might know what happened - in about 3 years.

3 years would be nice. Still waiting on this one : https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications...r/ao-2014-053/

Don't laugh Old Akro.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rgency-landing

I doubt any pilot would be stupid enough to be using a phone whilst taking off, let alone just the ring or buzz from an incoming call/message being a distraction.

About as likely as a meteor hitting the plane.

As much as people are taking the p!ss out of this suggestion, if as DF said runway lights were taken out then that could be the moment of the initial distraction and then the take off was continued. In regards to pilots and mobile phone use, believe me it occurs more than you think in both GA and airlines. A number of years ago JQ had a missed approach in SIN (I think) due to one of the pilots mobile phones causing a distraction.

Great.

So what would you have us or the ATSB or the Werris Creek CWA do about your theory?

Don't underestimate the Werris Creek CWA.
Far more powerful than the Quirindi CWA.

Questions arose re a Chieftain crash at Christchurch about cellphones. For the last three minutes of the ILS approach the pilots phone was active. The crash terminated the call. Eight died, two survived with serious injuries.

http://www.taic.org.nz/AviationReports/tabid/78/ctl/Detail/mid/482/InvNumber/2003-004/Page/4/Default.aspx?SkinSrc=[G]skins%2ftaicAviation%2fskin_aviation

I always found the People's Front of Judea v Popular People's Front of Judea rivalry between the Werris Creek and Quirindi CWAs, about scone recipes, to be pretty scary.

The relevance of this? None. Just like speculation about wash water, mobile phone distractions, European wasps and snakes. Entirely pointless.

If anyone in PPruNeworld has a theory about what caused this accident, please pick up the phone and tell it to ATSB.

That's a very good suggestion as the ATSB seem to be understaffed and struggle to get a final report out on other previous serious incidents and accidents in less than 2 years (Mt Hotham and Norfolk Island come to mind).

Surely up that way, you mean Scone recipes? :(

I find the Scone CWA doesn't enter into the petty reivalries of the Liverpool Plains.

Leady, Leafy and Gerry you are morons. People died in this prang and you reduce a serious discussion to utter tripe in your most recent posts. Please delete and grow up.
F...wits.

Lighten Up Mach Avelli, In case you didn't notice it's a deliberate attempt to diffuse that serious discussion, because the cause is already known and they don't want it posted here.