Accident at Shellharbour

[Victa Bravo]

Worth a watch. This would be my very first suspect.

You Tube

[Pearly White]

Originally Posted by UTW

Here’s another theory…

• In some older Piper aircraft (including Cherokee Six, Lance, Saratoga, PA-28, and PA-32 variants), the seat-track locking mechanism or rear seat retention pin assembly could fail to engage properly.
• When that happens, the seat can slide suddenly rearward under acceleration — particularly during take-off roll or initial climb when power is applied and G-forces act rearward.
• The sudden motion can cause the pilot to lose reach of the controls, often leading to a pitch-up and/or loss of control.

I've been reading accident reports with precisely this suggestion since I first flew in 1971. In any light aircraft I push the seat back and forth to confirm the ratchet is locked in the track properly. Another issue that's occurred to me in Pipers multiple times over the years is the entry door popping ajar during the initial climb phase. That can be very disconcerting especially if you have low time. You just have to ANC and come back to land to close the thing properly. The age of the GA fleet might be part of the issue, I believe, although the first door that popped ajar at 500' for me was a 1971 Cherokee that was less than six months old. Just bloody awful latch alignment and borderline complacency/ignorance in a low hour pilot.

[Clare Prop]

It won't hurt you, all of mine have approval to fly with the doors off, including front door, back door in a PA32 and baggage door in PA28, for skydivers and photography. But it can certainly make you jump if not expecting it

[Centaurus]

Originally Posted by John Kasuku

With the topography to the west and gusty winds to 32 kts reported, rotors would have been severe. The shortish take off roll would be explained by the stiff headwind. If the rotors resulted in a 20kt change in IAS at the reported 100' altitude I can see how a stall might develop so quickly even quick action by the pilot might not have been enough.

I well remember flying a Lincoln bomber in the 1950's from Richmond RAAF base to Nowra Naval airbase. We tracked via the coast a mile off shore and were hit by severe turbulence abeam Wollongong. It would have been dangerous in a light aircraft so we were glad we were in the Lincoln.

[Corvallis]

Out of trim

Maybe an out of trim ( aileron) . Post maintenance maybe . Control cable coming off the trim wheel

[Peter Fanelli]

Originally Posted by Kimba

Control Locks?

Usually the seat belt around the yoke in the Piper singles, hard to get into the seat with the controls locked that way.
Can't discount the possibility of external gust locks however.

[Bleve]

Originally Posted by Centaurus

We tracked via the coast a mile off shore and were hit by severe turbulence abeam Wollongong. It would have been dangerous in a light aircraft …

I’ve been flying for 45 years. The worst turbulence I’ve ever experienced was in a similar location (about 15 nm south of Sydney, just off the coast, on a left base to join finals for 34L). Like Centaurus, we were in large aircraft (B767), so we were able to ride it out. We were unable to read any displays or the MCP. Even making adjustments to the MCP were difficult. I would not have wanted to be in a light aircraft. The wind (at altitude) was a strong westerly with lots of mechanical turbulence. It wouldn’t surprise me if severe turbulence was a factor in this accident. Although given the state of the wreckage, I think finding enough evidence to determine a likely cause will be difficult.

[Squawk7700]

I flew into Albion Park in 2001 on the way past. It was so damn windy and lumpy, I landed in about 20 metres and had a heap of turbulence. Taxiing back to the hangar area I managed to do a ground-loop in my nosewheel aircraft! The local helicopter mob gave me a hangar spot which was nice and said that it's literally always extremely turbulent due to the nearby escarpment.

I stayed in a hotel for a few nights, and each morning I got up it was as windy as hell when I stuck my head out. By that time I thought I'd give it a go and head home. It was the most turbulence I'd ever expererienced till at least 10 miles out and a decent altitude. Ever since, it's been on my do not visit list. Maybe it would be ok in an easterly.

[Clare Prop]

Originally Posted by Peter Fanelli

Usually the seat belt around the yoke in the Piper singles, hard to get into the seat with the controls locked that way.
Can't discount the possibility of external gust locks however.

From the POH:
The aileron and stabilator controls should be secured by looping the safety belt through the control wheel and pulling it snug. The rudder is held in position by its connections to the nose wheel steering and normally does not have to be secured. The flaps are locked when in the full up position and should be left retracted

There is no aileron trim..

[PiperCameron]

Originally Posted by Peter Fanelli

GetThereItIs

As someone with a bit of time in various Piper low-wings, I'm thinking a low altitude stall-spin (the left wing drop), due to a good dose of getthereitis (don't want to miss the big race!) with a decent serving of wind shear and zero altitude to recover could easily end this way.

In my experience, taper-wing Pipers, having a longer wingspan, are more stable in roll but once upset (eg. by a gust) require more roll control input to recover and are slower to respond than the Hershey-bar slab-wing types which are shorter and have a higher-lift profile.

[PiperCameron]

Assuming the ADS-B track is correct, it's interesting that they didn't use the entire runway for takeoff.. but given that the tail is in one piece the other thing investigators will be able to check is the position of the elevator trim. Runaway up-trim would be nasty and not unheard of, but so would forgetting to select neutral trim for takeoff!

[nomess]

The conditions in the area at the time are nothing new, and would have been no surprise to the PIC.

The ATSB has mentioned the engine didn’t appear to be producing power at the time, I don’t know if that is just an assumption at such an early stage, interesting comment to make at such stage, they normally hold back such statements.

Perhaps they did push the yoke forward after a short startle but it was still too late. The time to react here successfully would be wafer thin if they indeed did suffer a failure at such height.

[Lead Balloon]

Is someone with expertise able to make anything out of what can be seen of the prop in the media video?

[Squawk7700]

Originally Posted by Lead Balloon

Is someone with expertise able to make anything out of what can be seen of the prop in the media video?

Have you got the link to the video?

Edit: No need, there's an image right here: Three killed in plane crash at NSW's Shellharbour Airport with victims having 'no chance of being saved' - ABC News

[Lead Balloon]

It's at #1.

[PiperCameron]

Originally Posted by Lead Balloon

Is someone with expertise able to make anything out of what can be seen of the prop in the media video?

Nothing obvious. Are you thinking it looks to be full coarse? If so, there are a number of reasons it might look like that that may or may not have anything to do with the accident.

The ABC article quotes ATSB this way:

"It will take us quite some time to get a better picture of what went wrong," he said.

[BronteExperimental]

Given the initial ADSB data (with all the usual caveats) and the fact that the wreckage trail appears to be in a SE direction, it implies a very early - possibly uncontrolled or possibly disrupted - left turn through more than 90 degrees. Seems unlikely he intentionally turned contra circuit at low level. But it had enough energy and height to get a long way thru the turn.

I won’t speculate about whether the conditions were or weren’t a surprise for the PIC however…
That place is a beautiful part of the world to fly for the vast majority of the time. But anytime it’s a decent SW thru to NW it’s absolutely no joke terrible.

[Lead Balloon]

Originally Posted by PiperCameron

Nothing obvious. Are you thinking it looks to be full coarse? If so, there are a number of reasons it might look like that that may or may not have anything to do with the accident.

The ABC article quotes ATSB this way:

I only asked the question because an earlier poster said: "The ATSB has mentioned the engine didn’t appear to be producing power at the time." I don't know whether that's third hand hearsay or an accurate quote of something said by the ATSB. Given the circumstances, I'm guessing that if ATSB did say something like that, it would have to be based on an observation of the propellor at the site.

[43Inches]

It does look like the propeller is relatively undamaged for high power impact (tips not curled or bent), maybe there was an engine failure. Which made me look at the departure trace from earlier, there seems to be a short backtrack before departure. One thing that comes to mind is the Lance has only the ability to select Left or Right tanks, with the Left being normal for departure. It is possible that if there was a tight turn performed to line up with some speed that the outlets from the tank can be momentarily uncovered, leading to a power interruption at some point afterwards. The turn to line up was a Right turn, meaning the fuel would slosh away from the outlets in the left tank. This was a warning in a number of Pipers not to make sudden, sharp maneuvers, just prior to take-off. The lance just has a general warning about it, not in regard to take-off, just in general that maneuvers can cause power interruptions. No idea if it is relevant to this aircraft, and this situation. BTW the warning is in section 10 of the POH, "operating tips".

[Squawk7700]

Originally Posted by PiperCameron

Nothing obvious. Are you thinking it looks to be full coarse?

The bottom 2 blades appear to be pretty much undamaged. Even the slightest amount of power would damage all 3 blades, curl the tips or worse. It looks from that one photo like it had zero power and only bent the bottom two when it went skidding flat along the runway. Would love to see another image of it as it's hard to see the 12 o'clock blade however it does appear to be quite straight.