C172 down near Camden - one fatality

[roundsounds]

Originally Posted by Pinky the pilot

Now the way I read those two (consecutive btw) posts from page 1, indicates to me that the Accident victim had over 40 hours in RA aircraft but was on his first solo in a VH registered A/C.

The wreckage was spotted and reported by another Pilot who happened to be on his first solo in any aircraft!

Now can we stick to the facts and stop slagging any Instructors etc?

The only other aircraft in the circuit at the time were both dual, VH-BMX and VH-DLB. Maybe get your facts right?

[roundsounds]

Originally Posted by mostlytossas

If this was his first solo as reported then clearly he was not ready to be sent solo. After all he did not even get around the circuit let alone attempt a landing. I also have concerns that he attempted it in a C172 and not something a bit lighter such as a C150 given he came from RAaus . Sixteen is very young to be rushed through to GA. I think the flying school snd the instructor who cleared him will have a bit of explaining to do and rightfully so. Unfortunately for them but our thoughts should be with the family who put their trust in that school.

I suspect there will more to this accident than a lot of people are suggesting. Images indicate the aircraft hit the ground at high speed and wings level.

[BronteExperimental]

Originally Posted by Clare Prop

There are always some who say we shouldn’t speculate, that is understandable, but this is a network of pilots so it’s not ghoulish to discuss it, always keeping in mind that journos could be reading and what is written here is more credible than some of the rubbish they dream up.

Journos don’t GAF. Good chance that’s not even an actual person writing the copy in the next 12m.
AI can only improve aviation journalism IMHO. Artificial is better than zero.
This will never rate a mention in the press again until there’s a catalyst like an ATSB report or abhorrently because of the family being of some titillating public interest - both of which will probably get a better chance of being quoted than any speculation here.

[Squawk7700]

Originally Posted by roundsounds

I suspect there will more to this accident than a lot of people are suggesting. Images indicate the aircraft hit the ground at high speed and wings level.

Wings level inverted? (is being suggested elsewhere)

[FlyHighLittleOne]

I hope you all don't mind a random interjection, I stumbled across this forum looking at articles frustrated at the incorrect information and saw people not judging him for his age or ability, just the accident. It was a really nice change to what's been around, so thank you. I know absolutely nothing about planes, just this young man. Very very well.
Everyone seems to be interested in this accident and as enthusiasts and professionals I can appreciate the desire for speculation about what happened, even if I don't fully understand them.

Whilst it was his first solo with the flight school, he'd been up in his first solo almost 2 years previously. He was almost an exact month off that anniversary actually. He was young, and only a week out from his 17th birthday so he had been up in the air for just shy of 3 years. I know you all know what it takes to get up there and you might not think he had enough to do it but I can tell you that kid worked harder than any person I have ever seen anywhere and deserved so much more life than he got. He was an absolute pleasure to know, and pride and joy in my life.

[nomess]

Not sure about wings level impact, does seem like some level of bank was involved, the ground impact has a trail prior to what is a larger impact area, left wing has potentially impacted first. The differences in damage to each wing would also allude to more stress potential being on the left.

Really is quite strange. The track flown isn’t anything volatile. Just a continued start of a light base turn, and it remains that way. Recent investigations with flap asymmetry events has obvious heavy track changes, nothing really here indicates any large deviation from starting a normal base turn. Loose seat is another possibility. Started the turn, seat went back, down it went. Would explain why it remained in the base turn.

[Squawk7700]

Originally Posted by nomess

Not sure about wings level impact, does seem like some level of bank was involved, the ground impact has a trail prior to what is a larger impact area, left wing has potentially impacted first. The differences in damage to each wing would also allude to more stress potential being on the left.

You’re summary feels right, perhaps a wing has hit, possibly the nose has hit at that large initial impact area and it’s skidded along from there and rolled up at the end. It doesn’t feel like a stock stall / spin, it’s like it was recovered too late from a spin and skidded along with a shallower descent angle and only rolled up at the end versus a spin where it compresses from top to bottom on impact. I’m not speculating as such, but am wondering how on earth the skid mark could be so long and wide at the same time.

[bentleg]

My take, pure speculation of course. Slowed down too much for base turn, stalled and attempted recovery. Insufficient altitude. Hit ground at speed as he tried to level out from the dive. We shall have to wait for ATSB to tell us what really happened.

[KRviator]

Last downwind ADS-B report had him S&L at 80Kts, with almost direct crosswind (NW at 9G13 - so GS would be virtually identical to IAS). I'm not seeing anything close to a stall from the ADS-B data. It's almost like the beginnings of a spiral dive - but WTF would trigger that at the base turnpoint?!?

Here's the replay from ADS-B Exchange

[nomess]

Originally Posted by KRviator

It's almost like the beginnings of a spiral dive - but WTF would trigger that at the base turnpoint?!?

There is something unique about what has happened here and I don’t believe we will find out for a while. It’s clear the PIC had very little control once they started the base turn. Something happened. It wasn’t a steep turn. The speed looks good.

It’s almost as if the PIC didn’t have hands on the controls once that turn started, or that was nil control response for whatever reason. Did something impact the windscreen? Did the seat slide back? Obviously serious structural/cable failure is another. Age is young, medical issues would be extremely unlikely.

[43Inches]

It’s almost as if the PIC didn’t have hands on the controls once that turn started, or that was nil control response for whatever reason. Did something impact the windscreen? Did the seat slide back? Obviously serious structural/cable failure is another. Age is young, medical issues would be extremely unlikely.

Everything you have mentioned are "unlikely" events. While increased age brings increased chance of medical events there is never a stage in your life where a stroke/cardiac event, seizure, severe reaction to substance, blackout, etc etc could not happen. So unlikely as it may be, it is still possible at any age to be a factor and medical screening even for commercial pilots is not going to pick up most hidden things that might incapacitate you unless you have regular symptoms presenting prior.

I would consider a medical episode as likely as something hitting the windscreen. You could also say that structural failure of any kind is extremely unlikely given the conditions on the day, the aircraft is a common, reliable type, maintained to standards with regular inspections. Seat failure is extremely unlikely as the ADSB tracks don't show a pitch up to stall, unless they let go of the controls with the aircraft very out of trim, nose down. A stall is extremely unlikely because the speed seems too high, even with a significant pull up event, again which would show on the tracks. A spiral dive is extremely unlikely as the track does not indicate a turning spiral, and so on. Engine failure/fuel exhaustion is unlikely because they did not attempt to glide.

However just because something is very unlikely, does not mean it can not happen, especially when the event is an extremely unlikely event in itself. Also there is a lot of reliance on the track plots being accurate, at this point we have next to no idea what happened between turning downwind and it ending in a mess in the field, let alone come to any conclusions about what has happened.

[Pinky the pilot]

The only other aircraft in the circuit at the time were both dual, VH-BMX and VH-DLB. Maybe get your facts right?

Fine, roundsounds. My post was my understanding of the event as I understood it, reading from the previous posts.

Obviously you have information that the previous posts did not convey sufficiently.

ATC indicated it was a first solo to the pilot who located the accident site.

So did I misinterpret the above post. Which was yours, no? (Post #4 page 1)

[LostOnHoth]

The news stories say the pilot “made a request to land three minutes into the flight” but that would be perfectly normal on a first solo when you’re just doing a single circuit and requesting landing clearance on downwind. I haven’t heard the ATC recordings so don’t know whether this radio call was a regular downwind call or an intended emergency call without the maydays or pan pans. If there was engine trouble on downwind leg requiring immediate landing rather than completing the circuit the track doesn’t show any turn towards the runway or change to best glide.

[LookinDown]

Possibilities

Accidents are rarely the result of a single threat or error but an accumulation.
Just surmising about the possibility of an adverse negative G reaction following something like a bird strike or seating failure or such. This would depend on exposure during the previous training.
Not a lot of recovery height from a base turn if the initial appropriate response wasn't instinctive

LD

[jonas64]

Originally Posted by LostOnHoth

I haven’t heard the ATC recordings so don’t know whether this radio call was a regular downwind call or an intended emergency call without the maydays or pan pans

It was a completely normal "downwind fullstop" call, and according to the available ADS-B data, it appears the pilot initiated the turn on to base at the expected point. In fact, I flew directly over the wreckage yesterday as I was in the circuit to land on 06. I would surmise that only a loss of control resulting in a spin could have eaten up so much height so quickly. I fear it will be some time before the ATSB can tell us what really happened, and why.

[Clare Prop]

Yes, I had a bird strike on a turn onto final once and it gave me a hell of a startle and sudden attitude change, luckily it was on the end of the wing so not too much adverse effect on the handling and we got down safely, but I agree that a bird strike or a seat rail failure could possibly lead to an event like this.

[Squawk7700]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...tragedies.html


Lots of details released about the young pilot here.

[Clinton McKenzie]

It was a completely normal "downwind fullstop" call, and according to the available ADS-B data, it appears the pilot initiated the turn on to base at the expected point.

Yes, I had a bird strike on a turn onto final once and it gave me a hell of a startle and sudden attitude change, luckily it was on the end of the wing so not too much adverse effect on the handling and we got down safely, but I agree that a bird strike or a seat rail failure could possibly lead to an event like this.

Hopefully that will put paid to any further speculation about mental illness/sudden incapacitation due medical condition.

I never cease to be amazed at the fact that a pilot's worst enemy is other pilots. Why any pilot would think it's a good idea to stoke the CASA AvMed fire of intrusion and destruction is beyond me.

And that's setting aside the abject absence of any thought or sympathy for the deceased pilot's family and friends.

[43Inches]

It was a completely normal "downwind fullstop" call, and according to the available ADS-B data, it appears the pilot initiated the turn on to base at the expected point.

Except from the track indications there is no evidence to say they were commencing a turn, that's all pure speculation. (The curve at the end of the tracking is whilst the aircraft is in rapid descent).

All we know is that they made a normal downwind call, after that the downwind leg appeared normal, and something went terribly wrong in the place we would be expecting them to be thinking about turning base.

I'll add that the plots indicate over 1 minute from the start of downwind to where things seem to have departed normal, a lot can happen in 1 minute of aviation, or nothing may have happened until the split second it departed controlled flight.

I still struggle to see a link to seat rail failure unless the trim was extremely nose down and the pilot let go of the controls. Even if there was a sudden seat rail failure, on downwind in level flight, its hardly going to propel the seat backwards in the same manner as just after lift off whilst accelerating in the climb. But who knows, anything is possible.

[43Inches]

Hopefully that will put paid to any further speculation about mental illness/sudden incapacitation due medical condition.

I never cease to be amazed at the fact that a pilot's worst enemy is other pilots. Why any pilot would think it's a good idea to stoke the CASA AvMed fire of intrusion and destruction is beyond me.

I find there's two parts to speculating on medical conditions and mental health as well. One is the obvious negative that certain bodies seem to over-react to conditions that have no real daily threat to aviation, AvMed tends to take an iron fist and checklist that stereotypes conditions when every case is different, meaning milder cases that pose no threat can be treated as if they are the severe version putting the individual under duress that will probably only worsen the situation (especially in mental health cases). I really favor that an individuals own specialists are the best at deciding if somebody is a fit and proper person for certain duties, AvMed should only provide guidance to the health professionals as to what conditions aviation will expose the individual to and ask them to assess them based on that and offer advice.

The second is the most important reason I agree with controlled investigation and speculation over medical cases. Highlighting how a lot of conditions can sneak up on you in life and become life threatening because you just have not heard of it, or failed to get those minor niggles checked out, or are too macho/embarrassed to see a doctor, especially in regard to mental health. Talking about things normalizes it, making it easier for individuals to seek help. Remember that regardless of how AvMed reacts, your health and well being comes first.

That being said, to automatically jump at 'mental health' issues as a cause in any incident/accident, without reason, is just stupid and harmful to those involved and their friends and family.

If you do have any sort of mental health issues, including just feeling down or stressed on a regular basis, talk it through with friends and family, and if needed see a professional.

I split this into a separate response as it has nothing to do with my thoughts on this accident.