What of the next 18 months for Australian Aviation ?

[Aussiebert]

a short note:

The (arguable) fact that australia can't support 3 major domestic carriers doesn't mean it won't happen

[flipside]

I agree with Marara except for the Air New Zealand flying Aust domestic, Impulse or Australian will provide the low cost capacity

[Piz Buin]

MARARA - Pretty good insight, however not NZ in an EMB...too much cross wind

[Java]

So where are we after all of these views and thoughts. In say 18 months time are we going to have another airline come in and have gone under. Are we going to have to see another lot of enthusiastic, committed, hard working, loyal people get royally screwed by this industry, employers and the government.
I want to see this industry prosper, but I am afraid that the next 18 months maybe another awfull repeat of the past 18 mths.
Please someone set me straight and give me hope that there is going to be some form of stability and future for everyone in this industry. I can't see how 3 airlines will work, but I really hope they do.

Cheers

Java

[fruitloop]

How's this for a 'cracked crystal' prediction

"Australian airlines"start flying out of Cairns to asian destinations. (all staff on different pay scales and restricted perks)
Qantas stop all international flights out of Cairns and only fly from capitols.Domestic does the on-carriage from Australian.
"Australian pull out of Cairns"

Any comments !!!

[Aussiebert]

and 3rd airline will live or die on the basis of international feed and travell agents support...

if i was implimenting such an airline i would take a different tack, lowish capacity a/c (ie smaller than a 73) and aim to fill as much of the a/c from o/s as possible.

Wopuld counter the discounting that would occer

I'd also do whatever it takes to get the ACCC on my side, simply to be able to minimise the impact of QF and DJ discounting in competition

[Rural]

My two bob's worth.

QF will struggle to keep costs low and will find it difficult to quickly adjust capacity as SQ enters the Oz market.

SQ will target the key 5 markets : MEL / SYD / BNE / ADL / PER, but will probably start with MEL/SYD/BNE.

DJ will struggle, with two major carriers (QF, SQ) providing at least some customer service, professionalism, travel agent distribution and global alliances.

I totally agree with previous comments on this post, that there is only room for 2 majors. OZ aint got enough people.

Regionals:

Regional Express forms commercial alliance with SQ.

QF Link struggles to keep costs low, but it will keep sufficient capacity on markets, due to plenty of cash.

Regional Express looks for equity from SQ to keep up with deep pockets of QF.

The next 4 to 8 months will be interesting.

[U2]

o.k .... third airline enters operations on a niche route using new aircraft, spends big money to get new aircraft for takeover battle. Other airlines continue to follow suite. Then third airline floats to get investment capital. Airlines squash each other. First airline to go bankrupt goes into liquidation and sells off assets cheaply, or liquidator screws investors to keep account. Remaining airlines fill gap and make a gentleman agreement.

In 5 years we will have solved our ageing airlines fleet and screwed investors and gullible public shareholders. We will be back to the old QF/AN duoploy, only with new aircraft.


Now if only we could do the same for G.A!!!!


U2

[grip-pipe]

Crystal Ball Gazing

With three quarters of the population living in Sydney Melbourne and Brisbane that's where the action will be. And that is the simple reason why there is only room for two majors in this country and always has been.

The bush will continue to shrink in terms of communities and wealth and people will continue to drive their cars to the exclusion of air travel (5% fly 80% drive). QF already have the 5% so Virgin are working on getting 5% of the other 80%. Communications technology will continue to make inroads into transport operations of all types, including aviation.

GA will continue to shrink to specialty operators and private flying will be enjoyed by only a very rich few, like now.

When the economic push is for rationalisation and fewer and fewer competitors why would the airline industry be any different. How many banks and brewers were there ten years ago, how many now, you work it out, its quite obvious, oligopolies and monopolies and workers and customers both get screwed, that's the name of the game.

So there will be the usual attempts to go up against those monopolies and the usual busts as they fail. Fuel prices will continue to rise as will the cost of aeroplanes and the choice of aircraft continues to diminish. You will need very deep pockets to survive the next five to ten years or gullible shareholders.

Anyway this crystal ball gazing is only as good as today and tomorrow is another day.

[Buster Hyman]

Patricks will sell to.........