Melbourne Weather Warning
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Melbourne Weather Warning
A significant weather system will pass over Geelong/Melbourne over the next 72hrs. Bom forecasting an entire seasons worth of rain in 3 days, potentially the worst in 20 years. Expected to cause significant delays in Melbourne Airspace during daylight hours tomorrow at its heaviest in the evening.
Storm System is currently building in Western Victoria.
Stay Safe.
EDIT: FakeNews
Storm System is currently building in Western Victoria.
Stay Safe.
EDIT: FakeNews
Last edited by wheels_down; 4th Dec 2017 at 03:10.
Our Bureau of Muppets claim to be able to forecast the WX decades in the future though give them a three month forecast time frame and its a SNAFU..
Apparently Victoria weren't going to get much rain: Issued by the BoM on 16/11/17. Chance of exceeding the median rainfall Dec 2017 to Feb 2018: Archive – Climate outlook maps
Further BoM clusterfecks exposed here: http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5446
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Apparently Victoria weren't going to get much rain: Issued by the BoM on 16/11/17. Chance of exceeding the median rainfall Dec 2017 to Feb 2018: Archive – Climate outlook maps
Further BoM clusterfecks exposed here: http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5446
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Apparently Victoria weren't going to get much rain
If the chance wasn't 50%, what was it? (You can't put a bet on after the race.)
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What's my chance of getting heads... or beating a BoM forecast
I actually thought the BOM was pretty close to the mark. The trouble is that people read the Victorian forecast and interpret it as their particular area. At home, we recorded 96mm across Fri / Sat / Sun with only a few mm on the Sunday. We didn't get the squally intensity that causes real damage, but further North seemed to.
Exactly Old Akro.
Had the rain cell that hit the Strathbogie region hit Melbourne it would be a very different result. From three days out, 100kms out is pretty good.
Had the rain cell that hit the Strathbogie region hit Melbourne it would be a very different result. From three days out, 100kms out is pretty good.
The link seems to say there was a 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall.
If the chance wasn't 50%, what was it? (You can't put a bet on after the race.)
If the chance wasn't 50%, what was it? (You can't put a bet on after the race.)
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If you cared to read and understand the map and some very basic statistics
To me the map says there is a 50% chance of exceeding the median rainfall. That means that about 1/2 the time you would expect more than median rainfall amount. It doesn't mean Victoria isn't going to get much rain. It pretty much means that the BOM can't tell - there is no indication that it's going to be dry, and no indication that it's going to be wet, at the time the forecast was issued.
The fact that it was wet doesn't mean there was anything wrong with the forecast.
If your understanding of the map and very basic statistics suggests something else, I'm willing to be educated.
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Some of the comments are clearly made by people who think civilisation stops at the urban-rural interface.
And no Bung'ole me old fruit, they aren't "forecasting the weather decades in the future". If you think that's what climate modelling is you're an even bigger fool than you present yourself as here.
I'm amazed the forecasts are as accurate as they are. Melbourne forecasts always seemed to be wrong when I was a kid.
Don't forget the managers of the Brisbane dam are the subject of a class action suing them because they didn't manage the risk conservatively enough. They thought they would wait a bit too see if the rain really was going to be off the scale as it was predicted. As it turned out, it was off the scale. The dam that flood proofed Brisbane was overloaded by an unprecedented amount of rain.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Don't forget the managers of the Brisbane dam are the subject of a class action suing them because they didn't manage the risk conservatively enough. They thought they would wait a bit too see if the rain really was going to be off the scale as it was predicted. As it turned out, it was off the scale. The dam that flood proofed Brisbane was overloaded by an unprecedented amount of rain.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Andrewr, sorry, I might have misinterpreted your comments and maybe should have directed them to the poster after you that seemed to suggest that the model was as good as a coin toss.
Massive, unprecedented, 10 out of 10, life threatening storm hits, drops 2 inches on Melbourne « JoNova
The ‘Twitterati’ quotes in the article are quite funny.
The ‘Twitterati’ quotes in the article are quite funny.
Last edited by Captain Dart; 4th Dec 2017 at 08:12.
They put out a warning that people should ensure their gutters are clear, and look what happened 
Paramedics issue warning after 12 hospitalised from ladder falls | The Courier
Paramedics issue warning after 12 hospitalised from ladder falls | The Courier
...Don't forget the managers of the Brisbane dam are the subject of a class action suing them because they didn't manage the risk conservatively enough. They thought they would wait a bit too see if the rain really was going to be off the scale as it was predicted. As it turned out, it was off the scale. The dam that flood proofed Brisbane was overloaded by an unprecedented amount of rain...
And re the dam: When the Wivenhoe dam were built the engineers allowed for expected major floods with a 'buffer' maximum allowable water level well below the dams actual maximum capacity. The buffer were exceeded before the floods because the then government were led to believe by the global warming looneys (BoM etc) that due to global warming there would be no more big floods..
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I have a confession to make, during the high alert period I climbed up a ladder.
Andrews is just selling his http://emergency.vic.gov.au
Judging by the weather radars there was a lot of rain about that was "sensed" and there could have been more that wasn't, kinda lucky most of it didn't fall on me in Melbourne as I was up a ladder remember.
A friend manages the BOM radar web site and every now and then the filters allow a donut shape to slip through onto the public radar display - you should see the feedback on conspiracy theories that follow - hilarious reading.
Oh well, I guess our girlie media made a killing on overplaying the event.
Another Andrews Government fail.
Judging by the weather radars there was a lot of rain about that was "sensed" and there could have been more that wasn't, kinda lucky most of it didn't fall on me in Melbourne as I was up a ladder remember.
A friend manages the BOM radar web site and every now and then the filters allow a donut shape to slip through onto the public radar display - you should see the feedback on conspiracy theories that follow - hilarious reading.
Oh well, I guess our girlie media made a killing on overplaying the event.