Melbourne Weather Warning
 

A significant weather system will pass over Geelong/Melbourne over the next 72hrs. Bom forecasting an entire seasons worth of rain in 3 days, potentially the worst in 20 years. Expected to cause significant delays in Melbourne Airspace during daylight hours tomorrow at its heaviest in the evening.

Storm System is currently building in Western Victoria.

Stay Safe.

EDIT: FakeNews

Probably be SCT at 3000, All the 9s... :}

Our Bureau of Muppets claim to be able to forecast the WX decades in the future though give them a three month forecast time frame and its a SNAFU..:hmm:

Apparently Victoria weren't going to get much rain: Issued by the BoM on 16/11/17. Chance of exceeding the median rainfall Dec 2017 to Feb 2018: Archive – Climate outlook maps


Further BoM clusterfecks exposed here: http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=5446






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The link seems to say there was a 50% chance of exceeding median rainfall.

If the chance wasn't 50%, what was it? (You can't put a bet on after the race.)

I'm gunna flip a coin. What's my chance of getting heads... or beating a BoM forecast...:hmm:





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So Tasmania didn’t float away as predicted? Lives were going to be lost...storm not seen in generations...

Another Andrews Government fail.

Because the Andrew's Government controls what warnings the BOM issues... :ugh:

There's billions of dollars riding on weather forecasts. If you can beat the BOM, go for it - people will pay big money for better forecasts.

I actually thought the BOM was pretty close to the mark. The trouble is that people read the Victorian forecast and interpret it as their particular area. At home, we recorded 96mm across Fri / Sat / Sun with only a few mm on the Sunday. We didn't get the squally intensity that causes real damage, but further North seemed to.

Exactly Old Akro.

Had the rain cell that hit the Strathbogie region hit Melbourne it would be a very different result. From three days out, 100kms out is pretty good.

If you cared to read and understand the map and some very basic statistics, you would have kept silent to prevent the removal of all doubt.

I think I'm agreeing with you that the BOM did a good job, as far as a layperson can tell.

To me the map says there is a 50% chance of exceeding the median rainfall. That means that about 1/2 the time you would expect more than median rainfall amount. It doesn't mean Victoria isn't going to get much rain. It pretty much means that the BOM can't tell - there is no indication that it's going to be dry, and no indication that it's going to be wet, at the time the forecast was issued.

The fact that it was wet doesn't mean there was anything wrong with the forecast.

If your understanding of the map and very basic statistics suggests something else, I'm willing to be educated.

Here in Shepparton we had around 65mm, but Murchison, Stanhope, Echuca and Euroa all exceeded 200mm for the 3 days.

Some of the comments are clearly made by people who think civilisation stops at the urban-rural interface.

And no Bung'ole me old fruit, they aren't "forecasting the weather decades in the future". If you think that's what climate modelling is you're an even bigger fool than you present yourself as here.

I'm amazed the forecasts are as accurate as they are. Melbourne forecasts always seemed to be wrong when I was a kid.

Don't forget the managers of the Brisbane dam are the subject of a class action suing them because they didn't manage the risk conservatively enough. They thought they would wait a bit too see if the rain really was going to be off the scale as it was predicted. As it turned out, it was off the scale. The dam that flood proofed Brisbane was overloaded by an unprecedented amount of rain.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

Andrewr, sorry, I might have misinterpreted your comments and maybe should have directed them to the poster after you that seemed to suggest that the model was as good as a coin toss.

Massive, unprecedented, 10 out of 10, life threatening storm hits, drops 2 inches on Melbourne « JoNova

The ‘Twitterati’ quotes in the article are quite funny.

They put out a warning that people should ensure their gutters are clear, and look what happened :)

Paramedics issue warning after 12 hospitalised from ladder falls | The Courier

The flood you refer to weren't all that big. The 1974 flood were bigger. And if yer have a look-see at the water level markings on the side of the Brisbane polo club building the 1974 flood is dwarfed by the floods of the late 1800's.

And re the dam: When the Wivenhoe dam were built the engineers allowed for expected major floods with a 'buffer' maximum allowable water level well below the dams actual maximum capacity. The buffer were exceeded before the floods because the then government were led to believe by the global warming looneys (BoM etc) that due to global warming there would be no more big floods..:hmm:





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I have a confession to make, during the high alert period I climbed up a ladder.

Andrews is just selling his http://emergency.vic.gov.au

Judging by the weather radars there was a lot of rain about that was "sensed" and there could have been more that wasn't, kinda lucky most of it didn't fall on me in Melbourne as I was up a ladder remember.

A friend manages the BOM radar web site and every now and then the filters allow a donut shape to slip through onto the public radar display - you should see the feedback on conspiracy theories that follow - hilarious reading.

Oh well, I guess our girlie media made a killing on overplaying the event.