AOPA | General Aviation Pilot Numbers
Sunfish - you are wrong for every DAS since CASA was formed 21 years ago. All have worked in the industry and only 2 had any RAAF background.
When I did maths, 1 + 1 + 1 did not equal 2.
Skidmore
McCormick
Byron
(Toller's handicap was that he was a pommie private school prefect prig.)
And that's the passing parade of the last 20 or so years.
Leroy Keith was the last one who knew what he was doing.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Sydney
Posts: 50
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Vag277 - Before we jump into reviewing casual factors, lets just compare apples to apples.
The chart you see below, is for US General Aviation Pilot Numbers. This means General Aviation Students, Private and Commercial Pilots - Identical data sets that we have used for the Australian analysis.
In 2006 the FAA recorded 400,283 general aviation pilots and in 2015 the number of pilots had increased to 422,887 - a four (4) percent increase in pilots!
Between 2006 and 2010 the US recorded year on year growth in pilot numbers - In contrast Australia's general aviation pilot numbers were collapsing, experiencing year on year decline.
Interestingly, the US experienced wholesale growth in general aviation instructor numbers! In 2006 there were 91,343 certified instructors and by 2016 there were 102,628 having grown by 11% - An increase of 11,285 actual instructors!
Australia's general aviation pilot community declined 34% by 8,700 pilots, whilst the US pilot community grew by 4% increasing pilot numbers by 22,600!
The chart you see below, is for US General Aviation Pilot Numbers. This means General Aviation Students, Private and Commercial Pilots - Identical data sets that we have used for the Australian analysis.
In 2006 the FAA recorded 400,283 general aviation pilots and in 2015 the number of pilots had increased to 422,887 - a four (4) percent increase in pilots!
Between 2006 and 2010 the US recorded year on year growth in pilot numbers - In contrast Australia's general aviation pilot numbers were collapsing, experiencing year on year decline.
Interestingly, the US experienced wholesale growth in general aviation instructor numbers! In 2006 there were 91,343 certified instructors and by 2016 there were 102,628 having grown by 11% - An increase of 11,285 actual instructors!
Australia's general aviation pilot community declined 34% by 8,700 pilots, whilst the US pilot community grew by 4% increasing pilot numbers by 22,600!
Moderator
I've asked the question of the Tech guys in the US/UK why all users can't open the graphs.
In the interim, here are the graphs in the sequence they appear in this thread:
Well, maybe not quite in correct order......
In the interim, here are the graphs in the sequence they appear in this thread:
Well, maybe not quite in correct order......
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Perth
Posts: 176
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Frightening numbers which ever way you look at them.
One could almost conclude that had CASA not relaxed rules around sport aircraft operations back a few decades ago and allowed growth to occur in this area then GA would be now effectively be dead in so far as private flying is concerned.
Sadly the gliding movement is now under similar declining pressures in part because of an increasingly overly stringent maintenance bureaucracy.
It would seem that to a large extent the growth in sport aircraft operations is largely due to cost and freedom issues.
Destroy either of those two components and the appeal evaporates.
Recent changes in the way basic RAAus aircraft have to be maintained shows the first signs of encroachment and erosion of both cost and freedom. It will be interesting to see their stats in a few years.
One could almost conclude that had CASA not relaxed rules around sport aircraft operations back a few decades ago and allowed growth to occur in this area then GA would be now effectively be dead in so far as private flying is concerned.
Sadly the gliding movement is now under similar declining pressures in part because of an increasingly overly stringent maintenance bureaucracy.
It would seem that to a large extent the growth in sport aircraft operations is largely due to cost and freedom issues.
Destroy either of those two components and the appeal evaporates.
Recent changes in the way basic RAAus aircraft have to be maintained shows the first signs of encroachment and erosion of both cost and freedom. It will be interesting to see their stats in a few years.
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: dans un cercle dont le centre est eveywhere et circumfernce n'est nulle part
Posts: 2,606
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Just got them in an mail. bloody marvelous these electronic thingies. Bloody scary these graph thingies...
But what everyone appears to be overlooking is how much safer Australia is, as a consequence of all the good work of CASA and AVMED and millions of square cubic kilometres of military Romeos.
If you plot accident and incident rates USA v Australia you'll find...errrm...oh...ahhh....
Well anyway, it makes Australians feel safer to know that Australian regulators claim to know better.
I reckon the ADF and CASA should be explaining to the USDF and FAA how to run aviation properly.
If you plot accident and incident rates USA v Australia you'll find...errrm...oh...ahhh....
Well anyway, it makes Australians feel safer to know that Australian regulators claim to know better.
I reckon the ADF and CASA should be explaining to the USDF and FAA how to run aviation properly.
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Sydney
Posts: 50
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I am working on the comparative UK data, tomorrow I will upload this. At this stage, however, it does look like the UK pilot numbers have grown.
If this is the case, then that means out of US, UK and AUS we are the only country experiencing serious double digit pilot population decline - or more accurately EXODUS.
If this is the case, then that means out of US, UK and AUS we are the only country experiencing serious double digit pilot population decline - or more accurately EXODUS.
Ben,
Let's assume that your interpretation of the stats is indeed correct. (Even if a significant migration from GA to RAAus is to be ignored.)
What do you and AOPA plan to do that hasn't been tried before?
Let's assume that your interpretation of the stats is indeed correct. (Even if a significant migration from GA to RAAus is to be ignored.)
What do you and AOPA plan to do that hasn't been tried before?
Moderator
I have discovered an approval attachment process.......
Could someone confirm whether they can now "see" the attachments in this thread?
Thanks
Could someone confirm whether they can now "see" the attachments in this thread?
Thanks
I can see all the graphs now.
Gerry: I'm hoping Ben/AOPA will take the unique opportunity that is presented by the new Senate cross-bench, having realised, from the history to which you correctly refer, that it's a waste of energy arguing with CASA.
Gerry: I'm hoping Ben/AOPA will take the unique opportunity that is presented by the new Senate cross-bench, having realised, from the history to which you correctly refer, that it's a waste of energy arguing with CASA.
Even if a significant migration from GA to RAAus is to be ignored
"General Aviation" isn't just pilots with ARNs and VH registered aircraft.
To completely ignore sport aviation would be obvious and a tad embarrassing for whoever presents the data to whoever.
Hence my comment about the definition of "the industry".
Let's assume the sport aviation sector is on the increase. Again, we'd have to ask what's causing the increase and the migration out of 'certified' 'traditional' GA. I'm guessing it won't be caused by everyone flocking there to get the benefit of increased regulation and CASA interference.
Let's assume the sport aviation sector is on the increase. Again, we'd have to ask what's causing the increase and the migration out of 'certified' 'traditional' GA. I'm guessing it won't be caused by everyone flocking there to get the benefit of increased regulation and CASA interference.
Last edited by Lead Balloon; 8th Aug 2016 at 00:16.
It's going to be entertaining to see the analysis that 'proves':
(1) the regulatory 'reform' program and Australia's civil aviation rules
(2) AVMED's return to the Dark Ages, and
(3) privatisation of the airports
have all contributed to an increasingly healthy environment for small businesses to innovate and flourish in aviation.
It's self-evident from the warehouses and mouldering ghost towns that used to be bustling with GA activity.
It will just go to show the luxury of arrogance enjoyed by 'The Protected' in Canberra.
The only hope for Australian GA is the cross-bench Senators.
(1) the regulatory 'reform' program and Australia's civil aviation rules
(2) AVMED's return to the Dark Ages, and
(3) privatisation of the airports
have all contributed to an increasingly healthy environment for small businesses to innovate and flourish in aviation.
It's self-evident from the warehouses and mouldering ghost towns that used to be bustling with GA activity.
It will just go to show the luxury of arrogance enjoyed by 'The Protected' in Canberra.
The only hope for Australian GA is the cross-bench Senators.
Very worrying data that, especially if you adjust for inflation AND consider the fact we've just come out of the biggest mining boom (and commensurate increase in national income) in the nation's history.
The regulatory aspect is without question one of the factors. It's farcical.
However, you can't overlook the impact that national pro-housing policies are having on investment in other sectors, disposable income and discretionary spending. We have a housing bubble of epic proportions and it is consuming and crowding out the rest of the economy.
At GA level, our industry has long survived on excess disposable income to fund people's activities. Thirty years ago, if you had excess cash and were so inclined, you spent it flying. Nowadays, investment dogma means every advisor and his dog will tell people to use any excess disposable income to leverage heavily into property. You only need to look at the data (middle-upper class participants, values/incomes, rents/incomes etc) to see the obsession.
If and when mean reversion happens, you'll probably see an uptick in these numbers. That was clearly evident in the US data, where post the 2007 housing bust, the GA numbers actually prospered. They're back into a declining trend again and not surprisingly many of their housing markets are starting to appear a little frothy again.
Thanks for posting the data, great stuff.
The regulatory aspect is without question one of the factors. It's farcical.
However, you can't overlook the impact that national pro-housing policies are having on investment in other sectors, disposable income and discretionary spending. We have a housing bubble of epic proportions and it is consuming and crowding out the rest of the economy.
At GA level, our industry has long survived on excess disposable income to fund people's activities. Thirty years ago, if you had excess cash and were so inclined, you spent it flying. Nowadays, investment dogma means every advisor and his dog will tell people to use any excess disposable income to leverage heavily into property. You only need to look at the data (middle-upper class participants, values/incomes, rents/incomes etc) to see the obsession.
If and when mean reversion happens, you'll probably see an uptick in these numbers. That was clearly evident in the US data, where post the 2007 housing bust, the GA numbers actually prospered. They're back into a declining trend again and not surprisingly many of their housing markets are starting to appear a little frothy again.
Thanks for posting the data, great stuff.
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Perth
Posts: 176
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Gerry: I'm hoping Ben/AOPA will take the unique opportunity that is presented by the new Senate cross-bench, having realised, from the history to which you correctly refer, that it's a waste of energy arguing with CASA.
Matters like this must be focused at the government (and opposition) and as LB stated above a rare opportunity with cross benches is now present.
GA amounts to nothing in votes, so on that basis we have no push, but we do turn money over and as small as we are, we are still an important sector more so than our raw numbers would infer.
GA in all its forms gives so much more to society than can be measured by statisticians and bean counters, those that become involved learn an immense breadth of skills and responsibilities that benefit not just the individual but the community around them.
GA is not just a means of transport or a training ground for future airline pilots it is the ultimate means of transport and a training ground for life.
To my thinking maybe our best approach is to appeal to the heart strings of the government.
But what ever our approach and despite our low numbers unity is critical.
Perhaps this an ideal time for AOPA to grab the ball and run hard, more tangibly an aggressive recruitment drive might be warranted. Looking at the AOPA web sight I had to dig down to find the joining fee, it slightly annoyed me, I like to see prices up front, when I did find it I thought it high.
An aggressive marketing drive half price membership for the next year and if it works and the numbers grow a reduced membership fee there after. Perhaps consider webb based magazine only??
Right now I am trying to do my bit and lobby the local council for key coded access to our tax payer funded terminal. Presently it is locked outside of the hours 0630-1830 and all weekend, hardly conjucive to fostering GA activity.
Anyways if this amounts to 2c worth of opinion then probably I'm over valued.
One could almost conclude that had CASA not relaxed rules around sport aircraft operations back a few decades ago and allowed growth to occur in this area then GA would be now effectively be dead in so far as private flying is concerned.
Do not give CASA any credit for something they did not do, the above was forced on CAA/CASA politically, starting with the HORSCOT (Darling) report into sports aviation, later the major changes forced on CASA by Sharp/Vaile as Ministers, and the then Government policy called "Soaring into Tomorrow" in the late 1990s.
I have been in the business a long time, I cannot recall (with the possible exception of ETOPS in the late 1980s --- not much to do with GA) any reform that was not vehemently opposed by the CASA "Iron Ring". Leroy Keith was vehemently opposed by the hard core, to the degree that he was set up by said cabal, and had to resign.
Tootle pip!!