AOPA | General Aviation Pilot Numbers
 

I will give you all a sneak peak of a sample of AOPA charts, which are based on data published by CASA in their annual reports. If you track general aviation pilot numbers from 2000 to 2015 you get a very clear picture of what is happening - a staggering 34% decline in general aviation pilots.

The decline in real numbers means that some 8,000 pilots have exited our industry!

Between 2000 and 2010 we lost approx 3,000 pilots over the ten (10) year period. Then between 2010 and 2014 we lost a further 3,000 pilots - in just four years. Then between 2014 and 2015 a further 1,000 pilots - in just one (1) year.

Just got a Class 2 medical hiccup (a request for a blood test) which, while I will comply, will cost additional money (on top of the ~$400 already outlaid) and serve no real purpose other than to tick a box somewhere in the bowels of AVMED. This, after waiting six weeks for a response after the date of my medical. And then I'll have to do it all again in under twelve months, because AVMED won't give me a standard 2 year (over 40) renewal due to a completely treated, non-varying medical condition, which is so well controlled that I'm actually in better shape than the general pilot population. And AVMED knows this, having read my renewals for the last several years.

Still, it is what it is. And what it is, is a strong discouragement against attempting to commit private/general aviation in this country. That's why we're leaving. I'm just stubborn, I guess.

I suspect that graph would instill a strong feeling of success and satisfaction in some CASA employees.......

......and as the numbers of pilots decline, the AVMED staff numbers will actually increase.

The levels of surveillance will increase massively until you require an annual gastroscopy and colonoscopy.


To put that another way, if staffing numbers at AVMED were required by regulation to be strictly directly proportional to the number of pilots, then we wouldn't have this problem.

To put that yet another way, why doesn't AOPA demand an "efficiency dividend" from CASA in the form of direct cuts to AVMED staffing?

One more soon to be added to the numbers!

After 43 years as an active GA pilot (CPL, IR, Intructor's Rating), I think I am over it.

Dr :8

So, then lets take a look at AVGAS consumption for the same period. Between 2000 and 2015 we have experienced a 35% decline in AVGAS.

Lets take a look at another chart... Since 2007 the number of aircraft being added to the Australian general aviation industry fleet has declined by 53%! Yes, you can attribute this to a range of factors. That said, you cant hide away from the fact that reducing pilot numbers means reducing aviation activity!

This is seriously bad news for our aircraft sales industry and the businesses which perform engineering and support. Fewer jobs and of course contributing to industry contraction.

With the above in mind, lets take a look at the other side of the aircraft registration equation - The Number of Aircraft Removed from the Register!

Comparing the same period of 2007 to 2015, the number of aircraft cancelled from the Australian general aviation register has increased by 51%.

To be clear, as of 2015 - Approx 350 aircraft were added, with 340 removed! Should the numbers continue on trend, in 15/16 more aircraft will be leaving the register than what is being replenished! Given that full impact of Cessna SID's is now being felt, AOPA believe that the Australian general aviation fleet will now be in established decline!

LETS RE-CAP WHAT THE CHARTS ARE TELLING US....

1. Pilot numbers are in serious decline
2. AVGAS sales are in serious decline
3. Number of new aircraft being added to industry is in serious decline
4. Number of aircraft registration cancellations is seriously increasing

PROGNOSIS: The industry is in established decline - PERIOD.

I'll bet CASA uses a different definition of "the industry" than you are.

now remove the overseas student activity from the GA mix and you will see real decline.

in terms of the political mantra of jobs, investment and growth both parties and the regulator have utterly and completely failed to produce an environment conducive to growth in the GA aviation sector.

While it is tempting to suggest that this state of affairs is an unstated but desirable policy result, I.prefer to think it is the result of employing brain dead ex RAAF morons, starting with the Director of Aviation who have never worked a day in their lives except at taxpayer expense and thus have no conception of the private sector environment, nor perhaps being a powerless private citizen.

To put that another way, they are like vampires that have no existence outside the darkness that is Canberra - they suck our blood.


...and another thing, how many RAAF pilots get put through the alcohol/liver function test regime forced by AVMED on private pilots at the slightest excuse? Not any I bet which considering what I've seen in one or two RAAF Messes is remarkable.

What does "attachments pending approval" mean and how does this give me an understanding of the topic being discussed. Does this concur with my previous graphs that were provided and given various acceptance and some disbelief.

still waiting approval? just like the industry i guess...

Well said Sunfish.
:D

Frank, welcome to the electronic World.

Put your mouse over the attachment, click on the attachment and - voila - it opens in a new Window!!! :ok:

If all else fails ask one of your Grand kids to teach you!! :} :}

Great graphs!! :D

Doesn't work for me either, perhaps its an Apple thing. Mouse over makes no difference and I aint got no grandkiddies to ask.

Doesn't work for me either.
Desktop or iPad. Tried Safari and Chrome.

How strange? I'm using IE 11 and have no problems opening the graphs. I wonder whether my Moderator privileges give me the access?

Apologies Frank, but you deserve the insult!! :} :} :} :}

Busy for an hour but I will open and try to re-post them as images. :ok:

Stand by.........

Might work for someone with admin privileges but doesn't work here either... Probably has something to do with Attachments Pending Approval

Sunfish - you are wrong for every DAS since CASA was formed 21 years ago. All have worked in the industry and only 2 had any RAAF background.

Ben - you have documented status, what analysis has been made of causal factors such as pilots dying of old age e.g. early baby boomers, moves to RAAus, serious debilitating medical issues, external financial impact of GFC etc?
What analysis has been done of GA business operating costs to show where the money is spent and what market analysis has been done to identify why businesses outside aviation are not using GA freight and charter services?