Get out of aviation before you lose everything

[Sunfish]

A simple test is to examine and compare Australias GDP with the performance of the GA sector.

GDP growth is around 3% p.a. on average across developed economies (I wont go into why because its long and involved).

One would therefore expect that a gander at commercial RPT passenger numbers should show something like 3% growth on a long term average, flying hours and sectors flown may not show much change since the schedules themselves don't change much.

Now if we go to GA there should be a similar 3% annual growth figure there somewhere, if there is not then DIck is right, GA is going backwards.

To put that another way, new GA aircraft should be adding to the fleet, more flying hours, more pilots and more LAMES every year. If GA isn't growing then by definition its dead.

[12-47]

Interesting table with a 10 year data series here;
General Aviation

It's clearly a volatile data set, but private flying is down 5% on 2003 levels! That was 2013 data (the height of the mining and ergo national income boom). Could be worse now.

Business aviation hours down 10% on 2003 levels and 15% down from peak 2008 levels.

Training well down.

Aerial Work and Charter outperforming compared to the others.

The ex-regional totals for GA over the 10 years aren't that flattering. Looking at the bookends, about a 6% rise over 10 years, but down about 7% from peak.

It has definitely lagged GDP growth over the last 10 years, which averaged 3.5%, despite the biggest mining boom in our history and household wealth (and debt levels!) rapidly increasing. By comparison Domestic/Regional ASKs have grown by over 50% during the same period. Activity at the big end of town certainly didn't suffer the same fate.

If it looks dead and smells dead........

[Frank Arouet]

A 5% reduction in GA and a 10% reduction in business aviation probably equates to a measureable safety improvement of 15% overall. CAsA deserve a pay rise.


Safe skies are empty skies!

[gerry111]

"Safe skies are empty skies!"

All the better for those of us in GA who are still prepared to fly VFR in VMC.

And to spend rather serious money in order to do so.

[Sunfish]

further to my post regarding GDP and the health of GA, if there is a snapshot of employment in the industry and revenues, then it is possible to extrapolate exactly what the economic cost to Australia has been of CASAs complete misregulation.

[ramble on]

This is link from a Jet Blast post by Dea Certe in the Trump thread worth read.....very similar situation here.

'superpredators'!!


"This is from TruthDig. An artical by Chris Hedges

Chris Hedges: The Graveyard of the Elites - Chris Hedges - Truthdig

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/...lites_20160228

I think it sums up the state of things very well."

[flyinkiwi]

New Zealand, Canada and the USA have user-friendly regulators.

I nearly spat my coffee out.

The New Zealand regulator you refer to is the same regulator who decided when the airlines got wind of the fact they were funding private pilot medicals decided that the best way to recoup said funding was to divide the shortfall by the existing number of class I and II medicals and charge accordingly.

For me, a weekend day VFR pilot, having to cough up ~NZ$300 just to buy the right to be examined came as a bit of a shock. But I just sucked it up and got on with it, despite that now I am older than 40 I need to redo my medical every 24 months. But I am in the minority. When I got my last medical done, the nurse was saying that the number of class II medicals being issued by the outfit I go to has plummeted (nice pun there) as private pilots are going to the RPL and cheaper medical costs or simply walking away from flying. The ONLY reason I haven't gone down the RPL road is, I like to carry more than one passenger to help offset costs.

While you might think the grass is greener over here, it's really just the cow manure.

[Sunfish]

Cow? Not sheep?

[Cat1234]

Dick Smith is correct, I am a Lame, 5 trades, any money that comes in to an aeromaintenance business is spent on administrative compliance personnel. Not hangers, test equipment or sourcing and training new employees, its all spent on paperwork.
I have left the industry and and have no money invested in aviation, engineering skills are very transferable and its so nice to fix equipment designed this century.
Best of luck to those still gambling on aviation.

[chance]

The GA industry is on a very slippery slope. On the 24th March another industry icon, the Royal Qld Aero Club in its 97 year was placed in Voluntary Administration.
The reasons may be many but the cost of SIDS on its C172 and C206 fleet, Air Services Charges, exorbitant landing fees charged by the AAC at YBAF as a result of the privatisation debacle of former Govt run secondary airports will be part of the problem.
The picture is familiar across the country.

[BPA]

Meanwhile in the USA GA is still going strong. Over there you have flying schools and joy flight companies operating out of not only the secondary (GA only airports), but from major airports without the costs (and delays) you see in Australia.