Get out of aviation before you lose everything
 

I’d like to re-emphasise what I’ve told many people and that is there is no light on the horizon and many tens of millions of dollars more is going to be lost in general aviation in this county before anything is done about it.

I’ve just returned from a trip in the Caravan from Bankstown to Mornington Island and back. Basically every airport is dead, I see a totally dying GA industry.

To show you how bad it is, I’m trying to get rid of my aircraft. I put the CJ3 on the market about 6 months ago when one of the aircraft of about the same hours sold for about US $4.6 million. Since then I have reduced the price twice, now to US $3.9 million and can’t get any takers.

One of the problems is the high cost of fitting ADSB in Australia and also a flight data recorder, both unique Australian requirements. The prime reason I’m selling the aircraft is if you get a minor fault – let’s say the mercury battery in the FMS goes flat, the aircraft is grounded for many weeks as Collins no longer have a presence in Australia and so the unit has to be sent to the USA for repair. This is going to happen more and more. I couldn’t even get the Winslow life raft serviced here and had to spend over US $3,000 shipping it as dangerous goods to Singapore.

I had a meeting with the Director of Aviation Safety at CASA, Mark Skidmore when he first started over a year ago and gave him a list of about 20 items, some truly simple to fix, many of which could save money for the industry. In the intervening year not one item has been addressed, I haven’t even received a phone call from anyone as CASA to ask about any of the ideas.

The OneSKY project is most likely going to be a disaster with hundreds of millions of dollars being written off and charged to the industry.

The ADSB requirement for all aircraft that fly in cloud, coming in next year is unique in the world – no other country has deemed that to be affordable. It’s pretty clear that Airservices under Sir Angus Houston will not budge on this mandate, even though they have maximised profits by not putting in many ADSB ground stations.

When Warren Truss actually leaves the Parliament, he’ll be praised by both sides of politics on what a great person and politician he is. This will give a message to any other politician how to act in an important folio like transport.

That is do nothing.

Take my advice now and get out before you lose even more.

Not really sure a CJ3 falls under GA. It's an expensive toy and like other luxury items like Ferraris they are a lot easier to buy than to sell. If it was a C172 it would have probably sold in a couple of weeks.

I'm going to pull you up on a few points:

1) Looking at the AFAP website there seems to be more jobs and better jobs recently than I can remember. Looks like another hiring boom is firing up.

2) Some areas of the industry, notable training for international airline pilots, seem to be strong.

3) RAA seems to be successful at being a lower cost entry point for weekend pilots.

4) ADSB seems to be an obvious upgrade, with benefits for both ATC and situational awareness. The costs you have quoted in the past are not really indicative of typical GA. To buy and get a LAME to install a Trig 31 ADSB transponder in my plane will cost less than $5k.

You might be happier with something like a new C206 instead of the CJ3. You'd certainly get to enjoy the scenery more.

Peter. It's when I hear that flying school owners are taking second mortgages on their house that I get worried for them.

And many ADSB prices are far higher than what you are quoting.

Yes pilots are being forced into ultralights due to the increasing costs of VH aircraft.

Bit like forcing Aussie families from cars onto motor scooters.


Many flying schools have closed down right across the country.

The chronic current account deficit tells you where this country is headed. Nothing in the black for 40 years and quarter after quarter of record (negative) numbers.

No wonder there's no money for life in the clouds. You'd need ADS-B for politician avoidance there anyway...

peter: You may not have noticed, but people are bailing out of Recreational aircraft as well.


Regarding the definitions, there are more expensive GA aircraft around than a CJ3. One was quiet regularly flown into the upper atmosphere by Adelaide University without probably the benefit of ADSB.


I won't bother discussing your peculiarities and difficulty dealing with people with bigger and better toys than your little 2 seater, (even if it is quasi NVFR), than to say your previous posts give you away.


Dick, you say "The OneSKY project is most likely going to be a disaster with hundreds of millions of dollars being written off and charged to the industry" and I agree but add, shortly there won't be an industry to charge these excesses to. What will Skidmore et al do then when the cash is tap is turned off?


As an aside, has anybody else sought to find out more with the change of scenery from CAsA to AsA by one... Mr Chambers. It must be good to change ships mid ocean before the storm for better silver service. I say this to keep in favor with my Socialist friends who see only the working class or their brothers in the public service of any consequence in the big scheme of things.

It saddens me that we seem to have become a society of short term profit and greed. Growth and develpoment at all costs, profit is king.

Anything attractive to big business (infrastructure assets, pretty environmental locations and our people) are exploited and over run for profit & greed rather than be protected for the future.

Public infrastructure airports, roads, bridges, rail, shipping, and all of their associated administration should be non-profit government run.

Rather than a mining tax, how about a "Bank Tax". They are all rolling in billions of dollars of profit.

Dick, you aren't the only one that CASA ignores.
It seems to be their MO to simply ignore requests for information, whether asked by mail, email or telephone calls.
I've been waiting nine months for even an acknowledgement for my own requests- let alone an answer.

But they are very fast to withdraw my funds...

Other than tax write off of the likes Wastpac Rescue,

I do not think any of our banks own a aircraft in Australia, but pretty sure other countries will have private jets for executives to blast around in.

I was at Coober Pedy yesterday and there were 7 aircraft movements within 20 minutes. 6 turboprop. GA was dead on your trip. But is it now alive and well again? That's how everyone reacts. A mate loses a job, and we all think the industry is dead. The big Q announce they will need people, and we're chatting about great "movement" up the ladder, freeing up gigs lower down for young pilots.

Sorry to hear your jet didn't sell on day one.

Take my advice.
Stop posting about how hard life is because you can't sell your multi million dollar jet. You are alienating people in the industry who work their *%#% off for a daily wage lower than your landing fee.

Don't bother arguing, :ok:just sit back and enjoy another Dick Headline!

Can you give a bit more info?

I was at Coober Pedy yesterday and there were 7 aircraft movements within 20 minutes. 6 turboprop.

1 PC12
1 Air Tractor
1 B200
1 E120
1 SF34
1 Aerostar (sorry, accidentally counted as turbo prop)
1 R44

Maybe Coober needs ATC?
The PC12 and Aerostar were head on on the ground, runway blocked, E120 went around, etc. Maybe we should invest Dick's $3.9million into regional SA?

(I'm not seriously suggesting Coober needs ATC)

About the response I would expect from you too AOTW :sad:

I gather you have only been in the industry 5 minutes? Those with a bit more time have noted the decline that seems proportionate to the increase in regulation and cost. Have you seen what an AOC will cost you these days? Once it was free. Have you checked out any major airport that once supported several GA business and noted that there are now none?

Doesn't alienate me at all. If it alienates you, it merely reflects your business acumen.

What I mean by that - everything about Dick is posed as if it's for the good of everyone else, but evidently on here it generally just relates back to self interest.

For example... "Australian aviation is too expensive..it's terrible..for example no one wants to pay me more than $3.9 million for the jet that I am trying to sell"

CAsA lack of response?




I've always fund them quick to enter into action. They are understanding, helpful, honest, flexible, polite and generous to a fault.


Unfortunately I'm not in the club so all that doesn't pertain to me.

How many flying schools are there now?

How many charter operators are there now?

Quote these numbers against this time last year, now and in 12 months. The numbers will astound you.

And for those that are still around, costs are being cut and trading terms being extended. But wait there is more.....

Wow. Some people are dense. I am not complaining about not being able to sell my CJ. Just using it as an example of what is happening.

I am fortunate. I don't need to sell the aircraft. But I know others who are being forced into dire financial circumstances.

OK what part of this is Gov or closing down deals.


1 PC12 = cops/RFDS or AACOpany
1 Air Tractor- was it fire or spreading stuff?
1 B200 RFDS ? or government?
1 E120 - that was my private trip sorry
1 SF34 =that was my private trip sorry
1 Aerostar (sorry, accidentally counted as turbo prop) = life short lived
1 R44 , know nothing about choppers sorry.

@Dick

$4,100 for a Trig 31, which looks like a really good unit and meets all of the requirements

Trig TT31 Mode S Transponder

The Trig 31 slides into the existing mounting tray.

The Avionics LAME estimates less than $1,000 to fit the unit, including the Engineering Order and testing.

My old Narco 150 is on it's last legs and has been causing problems with ATC and needs replacement anyway.

To upgrade to a new Mode C transponder would cost ~$4,000, so spending $5,000 on an ADSB unit makes sense.