So, the commercial pilot's days are numbered...?
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No matter what technology is available in 20 years, if there is not enough cheap oil left around then the days of commercial aviation are numbered; it will be back to the 70's when only the very wealthy could afford to fly. That inconvenient truth will shape the future more then pilot v non-pilot.
There's not going to be unmanned aircraft in commercial sense in anytime soon.
No insurance company is going to be prepared to take the risk and given that they are still crashing and losing military UAV's I don't see it happening anytime soon.
Aviation unlike trains and trucks cannot just pull over if it all goes pear shaped.
Would also require a complete rewrite of the regs (again
) and a complete rebuild of all Australian airspace as UAV's would be busting CTA steps all the time.
No insurance company is going to be prepared to take the risk and given that they are still crashing and losing military UAV's I don't see it happening anytime soon.
Aviation unlike trains and trucks cannot just pull over if it all goes pear shaped.
Would also require a complete rewrite of the regs (again
) and a complete rebuild of all Australian airspace as UAV's would be busting CTA steps all the time.
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Actually, insurance aside, I think we can look to the military to see future trends. Except for the armaments, most military technology eventually finds its way into civil aircraft. Think retractable gear, CS propellers, pressurisation, VHF R/T, gas turbines, metal alloys, GPS, digital avionics.
What replaced the R/T operator, then the navigator, then the flight engineer? Computers or computerised components. Same as what has (largely) replaced the military's reconaissance pilots.
As for CTA steps, the last light twin I flew was capable of warning me every time I approached CTA, either vertically or horizontally. That was a Diamond DA42. The CEO of Diamond is currently trying to raise interest in his company's next offering, a computerised emergency recovery device for the same twin. Some sort of GPS / AHRS computer coupled to fly-by-wire I believe.
It's coming. Just a question of whether we'll be retired when it does.
What replaced the R/T operator, then the navigator, then the flight engineer? Computers or computerised components. Same as what has (largely) replaced the military's reconaissance pilots.
As for CTA steps, the last light twin I flew was capable of warning me every time I approached CTA, either vertically or horizontally. That was a Diamond DA42. The CEO of Diamond is currently trying to raise interest in his company's next offering, a computerised emergency recovery device for the same twin. Some sort of GPS / AHRS computer coupled to fly-by-wire I believe.
It's coming. Just a question of whether we'll be retired when it does.
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[QUOTEI think we can look to the military to see future trends.QUOTE]
So when we look to the military to see what they send into a dynamic battle environment with air and ground targets, what do they use? Aircraft with pilots.
When we look to the military to see what they are using for troop and cargo transport what do we see? Aircraft with pilots - often with MULTIPLE pilots.
Step on a pilotless aircraft? Over my dead body...
So when we look to the military to see what they send into a dynamic battle environment with air and ground targets, what do they use? Aircraft with pilots.
When we look to the military to see what they are using for troop and cargo transport what do we see? Aircraft with pilots - often with MULTIPLE pilots.
Step on a pilotless aircraft? Over my dead body...
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Oh dear, Falling leaf, WRONG!
The CSIRO ran tests on a noxious weed that had taken over the country west of Townsville and Cairns in the cattle country, back in the seventies or early eighties.
I think it was a Madagascan creeper which went mad here.
The milk from it is high in oil.
The CSIRO distilled petrol from it and found that it didn't have the nasties that eat our buildings after they are producesd in exhausts.
Like the sugar mills the waste could be used to power some of the production. They drew a square on the map of the area that could supply Oz with it's petroleum needs. It wasn't quite the 150 miles from TL to CS.
The oil companies banged THAT on the head like they have done to efficient engines.
When we FINALLY get short of ground oil we'll grow it, in the meantime the oil companies are out to get all the profits they can and squeal 'shortage' so we'll continue to buy.
Some people are sick of the oil companies and make their own diesel from old vegetable oil now. That's refined stuff not the full ingredients of plant oil. You can probably get grease from the milk (sap).
Others posting here...Look at the military all you like. THEY have parachutes!
The three dimension of air will need man flying aeroplanes for a bloody long time to come yet.
The CSIRO ran tests on a noxious weed that had taken over the country west of Townsville and Cairns in the cattle country, back in the seventies or early eighties.
I think it was a Madagascan creeper which went mad here.
The milk from it is high in oil.
The CSIRO distilled petrol from it and found that it didn't have the nasties that eat our buildings after they are producesd in exhausts.
Like the sugar mills the waste could be used to power some of the production. They drew a square on the map of the area that could supply Oz with it's petroleum needs. It wasn't quite the 150 miles from TL to CS.
The oil companies banged THAT on the head like they have done to efficient engines.
When we FINALLY get short of ground oil we'll grow it, in the meantime the oil companies are out to get all the profits they can and squeal 'shortage' so we'll continue to buy.
Some people are sick of the oil companies and make their own diesel from old vegetable oil now. That's refined stuff not the full ingredients of plant oil. You can probably get grease from the milk (sap).
Others posting here...Look at the military all you like. THEY have parachutes!
The three dimension of air will need man flying aeroplanes for a bloody long time to come yet.
I think there will always be pilots up the pointy end. No one would be stupid enough to step on an aircraft that is being flown remotely.
If the industry heads in this direction I think we will have single pilot airline flying before anything else... And this is highly unlikely also.
If the industry heads in this direction I think we will have single pilot airline flying before anything else... And this is highly unlikely also.
"To put it in perspective. Most pros have heard muggins the private pilot or RAA pilot who reckon HE could land the big jet if the pilots died.
He's a pilot! Learned how to fly. Done hundreds of hours flying the big jets on flight sim AND has had a go at flying the 737 sim the public gets to pay to have a go in AND he landed it perfectly. "
Actually FLYING magazine in the US about 10 years ago sought to answer this question. They took a dozen university aviation program students who had a bare VFR PPL and put them in a 737 level D simulator and a few were able to get it on the ground. A few did crash however if memory serves me right. I will try to dig it up.
He's a pilot! Learned how to fly. Done hundreds of hours flying the big jets on flight sim AND has had a go at flying the 737 sim the public gets to pay to have a go in AND he landed it perfectly. "
Actually FLYING magazine in the US about 10 years ago sought to answer this question. They took a dozen university aviation program students who had a bare VFR PPL and put them in a 737 level D simulator and a few were able to get it on the ground. A few did crash however if memory serves me right. I will try to dig it up.
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Would also require a complete rewrite of the regs (again) and a complete rebuild of all Australian airspace as UAV's would be busting CTA steps all the time.
As for CTAs etc, why would you need them? All the pilotless aircraft would be on pre-programmed courses and de-conflicted by an ADSB/GPS/TCAS-type system, so there would be no need for any type of controlled airspace. I only type this as the Devil's advocate. I, too, don't believe we'll see pilotless aircraft, nor ATCless 'towers' in our lifetimes but, when I'm dust and they eventually come I'm sure the rest of the world will delight at how Australia still has rules and regs, just so we (the future generations) can tell everybody else they're wrong
It will happen & faster than we can imagine right now. Humans solve problems & if a technology company can demonstrate the huge annual savings in training, accomodation, meals (etc.) of flight crew AND alay the percieved customer safety fears, its a goer. Arguably, 10's if not 100's of millions of dollars saved annually for an airline with 1000 pilots.
Think back 100 years. The flat earth society would have hammered the pioneering airline moguls & their 'high risk' machines. With train & steamship technology 'state of the art' at the time, of course the safety argument won over........ but only for so long. Our world is evolving faster than ever, if business leaders & boards of directors want this concept to be a reality, it will get up.
The challenge is to counter the argument in a better way, that's why I say I hope the union guys have this on their agenda. It won't be a technology argument, it will be a marketing campaign fueled by cost savings.
Think back 100 years. The flat earth society would have hammered the pioneering airline moguls & their 'high risk' machines. With train & steamship technology 'state of the art' at the time, of course the safety argument won over........ but only for so long. Our world is evolving faster than ever, if business leaders & boards of directors want this concept to be a reality, it will get up.
The challenge is to counter the argument in a better way, that's why I say I hope the union guys have this on their agenda. It won't be a technology argument, it will be a marketing campaign fueled by cost savings.
Our world is evolving faster than ever, if business leaders & boards of directors want this concept to be a reality, it will get up.
The challenge is to counter the argument in a better way, that's why I say I hope the union guys have this on their agenda. It won't be a technology argument, it will be a marketing campaign fueled by cost savings.
The challenge is to counter the argument in a better way, that's why I say I hope the union guys have this on their agenda. It won't be a technology argument, it will be a marketing campaign fueled by cost savings.
Sorry not for me.
Have you checked the accident rate for the military drones? From what I've read it's no different and possibly worse than for manned aircraft in the same circumstances.
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"To put it in perspective. Most pros have heard muggins the private pilot or RAA pilot who reckon HE could land the big jet if the pilots died.
He's a pilot! Learned how to fly. Done hundreds of hours flying the big jets on flight sim AND has had a go at flying the 737 sim the public gets to pay to have a go in AND he landed it perfectly. "
Actually FLYING magazine in the US about 10 years ago sought to answer this question. They took a dozen university aviation program students who had a bare VFR PPL and put them in a 737 level D simulator and a few were able to get it on the ground. A few did crash however if memory serves me right. I will try to dig it up.
He's a pilot! Learned how to fly. Done hundreds of hours flying the big jets on flight sim AND has had a go at flying the 737 sim the public gets to pay to have a go in AND he landed it perfectly. "
Actually FLYING magazine in the US about 10 years ago sought to answer this question. They took a dozen university aviation program students who had a bare VFR PPL and put them in a 737 level D simulator and a few were able to get it on the ground. A few did crash however if memory serves me right. I will try to dig it up.
I am not saying "RAA muggins" is going to grease it in, but I would think someone who at least understands basic flying concepts, maybe has had a play in one of these flight sims, and has some help from the ground is going to have a lot better chance of a successful outcome compared to joe punter.
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I believe James May said it best on an episode of Big Ideas... Why aren't we all flying around in our personal automated cars wearing silver jumpsuits and moon boots?
"Imagine if the car was invented today... Ok, you get this huge heavy box on wheels, and you fill it with volatile liquid and you can drive it anywhere you want and everyone else can have one too! It'd never make it past the safety committee."
Similar with this. That being said, I was was watching something on ABC Fora about a program the US military is developing for flying fighters.
They started out landing a fighter on a carrier, and it crashes, simulated of course, but they then tell the computer to never make the same mistake twice. And then they run it for X times. By the end of it, the computer is landing the jet on the carrier 100% of the time, in all situations, OEInop, in a storm while on fire with the carrier deck pitching about like crazy. Greases it in every time. Was a good story and goes to show how far tech can take you.
I still want someone that has their a$$ to lose as well up the pointy end as well, rather than some guy who clocks out afterwards and goes home to the wife to mutter about crashing another one!
"Imagine if the car was invented today... Ok, you get this huge heavy box on wheels, and you fill it with volatile liquid and you can drive it anywhere you want and everyone else can have one too! It'd never make it past the safety committee."
Similar with this. That being said, I was was watching something on ABC Fora about a program the US military is developing for flying fighters.
They started out landing a fighter on a carrier, and it crashes, simulated of course, but they then tell the computer to never make the same mistake twice. And then they run it for X times. By the end of it, the computer is landing the jet on the carrier 100% of the time, in all situations, OEInop, in a storm while on fire with the carrier deck pitching about like crazy. Greases it in every time. Was a good story and goes to show how far tech can take you.
I still want someone that has their a$$ to lose as well up the pointy end as well, rather than some guy who clocks out afterwards and goes home to the wife to mutter about crashing another one!
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Cabin crew days numbered ???
So when the flight crew are phased out who will pour my G&T,
tuck me up in my lie-flat, and help me out of the emergency exit
when we crash due to a new unfortunate situation ?
tuck me up in my lie-flat, and help me out of the emergency exit
when we crash due to a new unfortunate situation ?
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I can definitely see it now. A Dash-9 Q700 doing a CAT IIIC into NZGS or a B1900Z doing an autoland into Kerikeri. Good times.
Edit: Also another point. With the global population growing why the hell is anyone thinking of removing THOUSANDS of jobs?
Edit: Also another point. With the global population growing why the hell is anyone thinking of removing THOUSANDS of jobs?
Last edited by Sassy91; 28th Mar 2012 at 21:43.