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Amelia Earhart PNG Theory

Old 13th Feb 2018, 12:12
  #121 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
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Have enjoyed reading this thread and wish you the best of luck David.

I haven’t read the entire thread so apologies if already mentioned.

Amelia was a pioneer someone important to aviation, why do you have to call for donations? Look at the size of aviation now, why hasn’t someone stepped up and assisted. Dick Smith, Richard Branson, John Travolta. If I had real coin behind me the hey me! Alas I don’t, however I will get around to a small donation.

Avation pioneers deserve the best, has anything ever been done at Oshkosh in regard to this search?

I say well done regardless, what a fantastic cause and I only wish I had the time to join you in the jungle!
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Old 13th Feb 2018, 19:25
  #122 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
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In response to Global Aviator…

Global Aviator asks several questions which I will answer here…

1. Why do I have to call for donations ?

The answer to that is simple, it is very expensive to get to site. I am now retired and have already put in around $120,000 Australian and in the past I have received about $50,000 in funding. I find that my retirement needs what money I have left when called upon to pay my normal bills… Electricity.. Car registration, Rates, etc, etc.

When I lived in PNG and worked for Air Niugini the expense was not so bad, the team could stay at my place before and after the flight to Rabaul, we could package up a few rations and take that with us and hop straight into a helicopter at Rabaul and be on site in the same day, I paid all that. Doing it from Australia is a lot more expensive with the airfares and hotels involved, I paid that too. To cut down the expense we started going by outboard powered banana boats but that was really quite dangerous. We did that 4 to 5 hour trip over the rough sea on about five occasions. Last year we used vehicles because logging tracks had been linked up and 160 Kilometres could possibly be done in four hours (we thought) by 4wd vehicles. It actually took seven hours and involved three rivers to ford, the widest and deepest had water up to the hoods on the three standard Toyota Hilux vehicles…. But we made it. We cant do that again until that river is bridged.

Basically, it is a very difficult place to get to by sea or by tracks and we have to go back to using a helicopter. At US$2000 per hour plus fuel we usually need two runs in and one out for the team of five because that takes at least 4.5 Flight hours.

Only one run out is needed simply because we have to leave everything we took in. Consequently, I have innumerable cookpots, blue tarpaulins, bush knives, plastic chairs, tents and at least three small generator sets and a small chainsaw down there which belong to me, but I cannot depend on seeing them ever again, or in what condition they would be in anyway, so each time requires the buying of new items.

Each visit nowadays costs in the region of US$20,000-$25,000 for a team of four to five. Last year there were ten of us and going by road with three vehicles (without the cost of some airfares from the U.S.) cost about $40,000 Australian.

2. Why hasn’t someone stepped up and assisted ?

You got me there… There are an awful lot of people who are interested in this project. When I opened up this “zombie” thread again after yet another year, 350 views were made on average each hour for four hours

Currently, in 10 days there have been 6050 views over a total of 230 hours at an average of 26 views per hour.

When I started the new website in early 2016, I started getting responses by email and on this very forum thread saying, “Put a PayPal button on your website.” That was done. Did I receive any donations through the PayPal button (?), yes I did, about three over a year or so ago and they were from people I have known for a long time. The last single donation was about 9-months ago from a fellow “ex-Brat” (ex-R.A.F. Apprentice) from the 88th Entry. I was in the 84th Entry. I can’t recall any donations from people who have written upon this Forum saying, “…add a Paypal button”… so, I might as well remove it for it has not brought forth the verbal pledges I assumed in the words written. I must have assumed wrongly.

As for Dick Smith, Sir Richard Branson or John Travolta…. Yes, I have written to all three plus many, many more. Dick Smith was busy making jam. Sir Richard Branson’s office replied that he was busy flying a balloon. There was another attempt by a friend of mine from when we were Flight Engineers in the R.A.F. He had flown as an F/E on the Virgin 747 Classics and had known Sir Richard…. That didn’t work either. Travolta never answered the Mail… Seemingly “celebrities” are not interested. It would make a wonderful film but Mel Gibson didn't reply either.

I did visit the U.S. Embassy in Port Moresby and I did speak with someone from the Military Attaches Office but nothing came of that either. Ideally, I would like a Bell Huey and 50 Grunts to be there… and for them to bring plenty of their wonderful ration packs…!

3. Has anything been done at Oshkosh in regard to this search ?

I am afraid not. I can’t afford that kind of trip.

Thank you for the comments.

David Billings

Last edited by David Billings; 26th Feb 2018 at 23:14.
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Old 13th Feb 2018, 19:55
  #123 (permalink)  
 
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David sounds like your having a lot of fun. How do you explain the one way radio contact from the Electra. There was no mention of turning back
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Old 13th Feb 2018, 20:35
  #124 (permalink)  
 
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The Website, Part 7, includes:

"The Contingency Plan"

Greg47 says: "David sounds like your having a lot of fun. How do you explain the one way radio contact from the Electra. There was no mention of turning back"

Greg, when you read the website, you must have missed out that her Receiver system was cactus and also you seem to have missed the opening subject of Part 7.

It seems to be a common failing. Some people seem to have missed the whole content of the website when they read it.

As for Earhart not mentioning a turn back in her radio calls, there were lots of other things you would expect to hear in radio calls made on a long distance flight, such as "Correct position and time at that position" calls; "Fuel state" updates; "Wx conditions" and "Whether a speed mentioned" is IAS,TAS or G/S and which nominate it is in either of Statute MPH, Knots, Furlongs per Week or Leagues per Fortnight.

If the British manufacturer of lighting equipment on Motor Vehicles named "LUCAS" is colloquially known as "Lucas, the Prince of Darkness", then surely Earhart should also be known as "Earhart, the Princess of Silence"...

I rest my case and repeat the website: www.earhartsearchpng.com

David Billings

Last edited by David Billings; 25th Feb 2018 at 12:57.
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Old 13th Feb 2018, 20:51
  #125 (permalink)  
 
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Her penultimate call stated her belief that she was near her destination and that she had less than an hour's worth of fuel.

No chance of a div to PNG, a thousand miles away, then.

The Billings search of the B-17 crash site for the missing four engines is noble, but quite irrelevant to the Earhart case in reality.
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Old 13th Feb 2018, 21:24
  #126 (permalink)  
 
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...Range rears it's head...

WE positively do not know how far the Electra travelled from LAE.
WE also are not 100% sure which way it went.
WE assume it headed for Howland and that is a reasonable assumption.
WE do not know where it was when the supposed last call was made at 2014 GMT.

Cazalet33 says:

"Her penultimate call stated her belief that she was near her destination and that she had less than an hour's worth of fuel."

The key words there are: "her belief". That is completely and exactly correct, her 1912 GMT call, "Must be on you but cannot see you", gives affirmation that she only 'thought' she was at or lateral to Howland but there is absolutely no proof that she was there at all

There is even variance on that statement in the USCG Records ... However, it is recorded she said, "Only a half-hour of fuel left...", but then after an hour was back on the Radio. Consensus of opinion is that she meant .."Only a half-hour of fuel before I get down to my reserve." If she had a Contingency Plan then it stands to reason that she had a reserve... An amount of fuel to a contents figure that she could not go below because at that figure she had to invoke the Contingency Plan.

No-one has any idea what the upper winds were through the night where from indications in the radio calls there was upper level cloud..."Overcast" making Noonan's task very difficult, without a groundspeed figure to go on, it is entirely possible that he had no real idea where they were, hence "Must be on you"... a hopeful statement.

"No chance of a div to PNG, a thousand miles away, then."

From The Gilberts it is...

"The Billings search of the B-17 crash site for the missing four engines is noble, but quite irrelevant to the Earhart case in reality."

I don't quite get what you mean there or what you are angling at... I haven't searched for the other three Wright Cyclones. The one I have seen was hiding in plain sight in the Mumus River and was seen way before I visited (was guided to) the Fuselage remnant of the B-17.

Last edited by David Billings; 26th Feb 2018 at 23:17.
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Old 13th Feb 2018, 22:32
  #127 (permalink)  
 
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her 1912 GMT call, "Must be on you but cannot see you", gives affirmation that she only 'thought' she was at or lateral to Howland but there is absolutely no proof that she was there at all
Agreed. She very clearly was not above or near Howland, or she'd have seen the huge smoke plume from Itasca. She was short of there, by many dozens of miles. If she'd overflown, she'd have seen the smoke. Ergo: she did not get that far, or was wildly off-track (or perhaps both).

She certainly pursued her belief that she could find the island for as long as her few remaining tens of minutes of fuel dwindled.

No indication of an intent, or ability, to divert many many hundreds of miles to a night-time landing in the jungly mountains of PNG.

I haven't searched for the other three Wright Cyclones
Your self-appointed search area is that of the B-17 crash. You are competent to find the other three B-17 engines in your search area.

Go get 'em!
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Old 13th Feb 2018, 23:39
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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She certainly pursued her belief that she could find the island for as long as her few remaining tens of minutes of fuel dwindled.

No indication of an intent, or ability, to divert many many hundreds of miles to a night-time landing in the jungly mountains of PNG.
I couldn't agree more. History has shown time and again, when an aviator becomes lost with no fuel and no plan, they wander around in an erratic fashion in an effort to make sense of their confusion, right up to the point that the empty fuel tanks make a final decision for them.

I have no dog in this fight, I say more power to anyone who wishes to explore the unknown, even if only for the sake of exploration itself. If some sort of lost wreck can be found and remains laid to rest then all the better.
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Old 14th Feb 2018, 01:48
  #129 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by joe crazyhorse View Post
History has shown time and again, when an aviator becomes lost with no fuel and no plan, they wander around in an erratic fashion in an effort to make sense of their confusion, right up to the point that the empty fuel tanks make a final decision for them.
A bingo fuel situation is vastly different to what you have described above. If you know your range and your reserves and you can't find your destination, you turn around and return to your last or a known good / findable location.

Especially when ditching would likely mean imminent death.
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Old 14th Feb 2018, 02:53
  #130 (permalink)  
 
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True however...

Originally Posted by StickWithTheTruth View Post
A bingo fuel situation is vastly different to what you have described above. If you know your range and your reserves and you can't find your destination, you turn around and return to your last or a known good / findable location.

Especially when ditching would likely mean imminent death.
In today’s aviation easy! GPS, but back then......

I’m lucky I’m old enough to have flown pre GPS but still with relatively modern means and certainly no loooooooooong overwater sextant stars or whatever style of navigation. As has been said, cloudy, different winds, even well whatever.

Look at MH 370 and that’s this century and still can’t find it and it WAS under positive radar control for a while and who knows how much longer than we have ever been told.

Keep cracking and as said above finding any wreck is worthwhile. Theory’s are just that until proven otherwise, simple solution here is help raise money to find this PNG wreck! No harm no foul.
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Old 14th Feb 2018, 03:15
  #131 (permalink)  
 
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What has the B-17 got to do with it ?

Cazalet33 seems fixated on the B-17

He says: "Your self-appointed search area is that of the B-17 crash. You are competent to find the other three B-17 engines in your search area. Go get 'em!"

Once again, Thou art speaking in riddles...

I have never "self-appointed" the Harl Pease B-17 41-2429 crash site as my search area. It is near, maybe a mile away. I have no idea where you got that from and I am also not looking for, nor have I ever looked for, the three remaining Cyclones. If I bump into one I''ll be sure to let you know.

I just think you are trying to wind me up. Hint...It's not working.

Last edited by David Billings; 25th Feb 2018 at 13:01.
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Old 14th Feb 2018, 03:19
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Remains laid to rest

Joe Crazyhorse says: "If some sort of lost wreck can be found and remains laid to rest then all the better."

Exactly

David Billings
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Old 14th Feb 2018, 09:38
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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Dave certainly has the credibility of the Oz army report and that of the Vet who was there and the map/message that indicates an a/c and engine was found there by the clearing patrol in 1945 and that has some relationship to the lost electra of AE hence Dave's passion in trying to locate what's left of it

it is a fascinating story I cannot understand why major funding for this search has not come forward


my only observations are that long wave radio signals picked up days after the a/c went missing were heard by a young girl a HAM operator in florida who says she heard a woman's voice saying they were injured plus something something sounding like ''new york city''
well an island nearby to Howland had a 1929 large wreck on the beach/reef called the SS Norwich City
that then goes back to the theory she crash landed on the reef and was quoting the vessel that was near her
the island was Gardner island
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Old 14th Feb 2018, 21:18
  #134 (permalink)  
 
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"..Now, darn it, you've dang gone and dun it....

I think Walter Brennan said that in the film “Red River’”

Now, Rog747, you have opened up a can of worms bigger than several oil storage tanks....

I do not really want to discuss Gardner Island because, to me and as has been indicated by the "Must be on you but cannot see you" Radio call of 1912 GMT, the Pilot of the Electra made an indication that tells us she was unsure of their position.

After I have said my piece, I will not feel the need to discuss it again….

What I will say first is that the 157 and 337 degrees which are mentioned in this total “Sunline theory to Gardner Island” are TRUE degrees.

Next, I will mention that the GC MAG steer to Howland from a position around Tabiteuea Island over the last 600 miles is 068 degrees and the wind forecast was from the NE. If Fred had the Electra steering 067 degrees allowing 1 degree of layoff, then a “Line of Position” at 90 degrees to the track line has to be 157-337 Magnetic degrees (not True degrees). Remember Earhart did not say “Sunline” she said “Line”.

Being that the pilot indicated doubt inherent of their position in relation to Howland, she then has to attempt “a search”, after all, she has indicated that she “thinks” they are there at Howland or lateral to it.. Don’t forget, that “We” know about the smoke from the ITASCA, she does not.

She then commenced a line search on 157 and on 337 (but we do not know which way she went “first”), which, if we are to say the search took one hour until 2014 GMT, then the most the Electra could have flown in time up the line or down the line from the mid-point of the track line would be 15 minutes, up and back down and down and back up…. making 4 x 15 minute runs, totaling one hour.

Incidentally, as I say, we do not know whether she went first to the North or first to the South. If Fred had used an offset approach then obviously the initial turn would be “to the South”. This is an important point, because if the first turn is made to the South, then the Line search would have be done to the North as the second "go" and if the Electra has to end up on Gardner, then they would go over an area already covered by the first "southern" direction.

Bear with me for the next is a long sentence.....

When I was flying in a Crew, I am damn sure that, even though we also carried a Navigator and due to circumstance, the navigation had failed, if it was known that we did not know where we were on a track line and it had been suggested to me that we head off for three hours into the unknown to a group of scattered islands which would be easy to miss from a position on a track line of which we were unsure….. and in the knowledge that on our reciprocal track there was a long line of islands at right angles to that reciprocal; which would be hard to miss, then, I would have strongly objected to heading off into the unknown instead of turning back on that reciprocal.

For, verily, to drone on for three hours toward the unknown on 157, is a hare-brained idea.

It will never be able to be explained to me why it is sensible to drone on for three or more hours on a fixed line, searching for land in a pack of widely scattered islands, from an unknown position on a track line.

In any case, due to the efforts of other researchers who persisted in the endeavour to find it… we now know that Earhart did have a Contingency Plan “to return to The Gilberts”.

David Billings

Last edited by David Billings; 17th Feb 2018 at 23:48.
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Old 14th Feb 2018, 23:03
  #135 (permalink)  
 
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When I was flying in a Crew, I am damn sure that, even though we also carried a Navigator and due to circumstance, the navigation had failed, if it was known that we did not know where we were on a track line and it had been suggested to me that we head off for three hours into the unknown to a group of scattered islands which would be easy to miss from a position on a track line of which we were unsure….. and in the knowledge that on our reciprocal track there was a long line of islands at right angles to that reciprocal; which would be hard to miss, then, I would have strongly objected to heading off into the unknown instead of turning back on that reciprocal.

For, verily, to drone on for three hours toward the unknown on 157, is a hare-brained idea.

It will never be able to be explained to me why it is sensible to drone on for three or more hours on a fixed line, searching for land in a pack of widely scattered islands, from an unknown position on a track line.

In any case, due to the efforts of other researchers who persisted in the endeavour to find it… we now know that Earhart did have a Contingency Plan “to return to The Gilberts”.
I think that the biggest hurdle for this theory is that you are applying sound logic, good decision making skills and CRM to a scenario that involved a person behind the controls that lacked all of these attributes. It is difficult to reconcile the idea that she would suddenly start making sound decisions against a history of having a cavalier attitude to piloting an aircraft. To say the least AE was reckless and impatient. She was someone for whom admitting defeat by turning around would have been far too humiliating for her inflated celebrity.

That said, I spent a significant period of time many years ago flying low and slow over, around and onto that part of PNG, and spent an inordinate amount of time looking down in a vain effort to catch the faintest glint of something that might resemble that described by the fabled army patrol and their magnificent map.

So my hypocrisy knows no bounds.
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Old 14th Feb 2018, 23:47
  #136 (permalink)  
 
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"Flying low and slow over.... around that part of PNG..."

Joe Crazyhorse: If you did that after around mid-1996 you were "in the dark" just as we were "in the dark" then, up until 2011 when we started to hear that it had been buried on purpose.

It is a cruel thing to find out, I can assure you, that when you hear of that event caused by tribalism and possibly dislike of "other folk" it is a daunting prospect to contemplate. However, then in 2011, the truth won out eventually. The Tolai Brother-in-Law of the Baining bulldozer driver held the secret and felt bad abut the fact that we kept going back. His Christian beliefs came to the fore and he started to tell the Pomio man that he knew and who knew us, what had actually happened.

I have the utmost respect for Tribal beliefs and Customs but I will say that a couple of the Bainings that I have met have been truculent and a little hard to deal with. Against that, the Pomios are happy and easy to get along with.

The news was daunting because it meant that every expedition we had made since 1996 was completely wasted except for our knowledge of the area and experiences. Over such an important subject matter that bit deep.

I hear what you say about the actual Pilot's tendencies and agree there was an amount if irrational behaviour. That is why, as I say in the website, in the knowledge of the groundspeeds obtained up and until the S.S. Ontario; it does not make sense that Earhart could be anywhere near to Howland at 1912 GMT.

David Billings
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Old 15th Feb 2018, 01:58
  #137 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
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ill bet you AUD$10000 youll never find Erharts electra in East new Britian
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Old 15th Feb 2018, 02:22
  #138 (permalink)  
 
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Greg47: I'll bet you $10 you don't contribute to anything....

Thousands bet the Americans wouldn't land a man on the moon...

Greg47: Have you given any glimmer of thought then, with all that has been said.... as to "whose" aircraft it would be then ?

I would really, really, be interested in your response..... Name the type, Nationality and the engines fitted to the choice of aircraft you consider the Diggers saw in 1945.

Last edited by David Billings; 15th Feb 2018 at 11:21.
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Old 15th Feb 2018, 21:52
  #139 (permalink)  
 
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I have no idea. She was transmitting she was being received but could not receive due to the incorrect coil loading for the antenna. Both new no morse.Its undisputed surely she arrived at the general location of howland. The fuel had been sitting for some time in lae ,it does deteriate . temperature reduces sg. Power is a function of mass. She had a maximum of an hour when she commenced her search along the nth south line.
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Old 15th Feb 2018, 21:55
  #140 (permalink)  
 
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David im sure your genuine, but your barking up the wrong tree
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