"..Now, darn it, you've dang gone and dun it....
I think Walter Brennan said that in the film “Red River’”
Now, Rog747, you have opened up a can of worms bigger than several oil storage tanks....
I do not really want to discuss Gardner Island because, to me and as has been indicated by the "Must be on you but cannot see you" Radio call of 1912 GMT, the Pilot of the Electra made an indication that tells us she was unsure of their position.
After I have said my piece, I will not feel the need to discuss it again….
What I will say first is that the 157 and 337 degrees which are mentioned in this total “Sunline theory to Gardner Island” are TRUE degrees.
Next, I will mention that the GC MAG steer to Howland from a position around Tabiteuea Island over the last 600 miles is 068 degrees and the wind forecast was from the NE. If Fred had the Electra steering 067 degrees allowing 1 degree of layoff, then a “Line of Position” at 90 degrees to the track line has to be 157-337 Magnetic degrees (not True degrees). Remember Earhart did not say “Sunline” she said “Line”.
Being that the pilot indicated doubt inherent of their position in relation to Howland, she then has to attempt “a search”, after all, she has indicated that she “thinks” they are there at Howland or lateral to it.. Don’t forget, that “We” know about the smoke from the ITASCA, she does not.
She then commenced a line search on 157 and on 337 (but we do not know which way she went “first”), which, if we are to say the search took one hour until 2014 GMT, then the most the Electra could have flown in time up the line or down the line from the mid-point of the track line would be 15 minutes, up and back down and down and back up…. making 4 x 15 minute runs, totaling one hour.
Incidentally, as I say, we do not know whether she went first to the North or first to the South. If Fred had used an offset approach then obviously the initial turn would be “to the South”. This is an important point, because if the first turn is made to the South, then the Line search would have be done to the North as the second "go" and if the Electra has to end up on Gardner, then they would go over an area already covered by the first "southern" direction.
Bear with me for the next is a long sentence.....
When I was flying in a Crew, I am damn sure that, even though we also carried a Navigator and due to circumstance, the navigation had failed, if it was known that we did not know where we were on a track line and it had been suggested to me that we head off for three hours into the unknown to a group of scattered islands which would be easy to miss from a position on a track line of which we were unsure….. and in the knowledge that on our reciprocal track there was a long line of islands at right angles to that reciprocal; which would be hard to miss, then, I would have strongly objected to heading off into the unknown instead of turning back on that reciprocal.
For, verily, to drone on for three hours toward the unknown on 157, is a hare-brained idea.
It will never be able to be explained to me why it is sensible to drone on for three or more hours on a fixed line, searching for land in a pack of widely scattered islands, from an unknown position on a track line.
In any case, due to the efforts of other researchers who persisted in the endeavour to find it… we now know that Earhart did have a Contingency Plan “to return to The Gilberts”.
David Billings
Last edited by David Billings; 17th Feb 2018 at 23:48.