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Amelia Earhart PNG Theory

Old 8th Mar 2018, 19:58
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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I've been following this thread since the beginning. I've also kept up with the information on both David's and TIGHAR's websites -- along with a lot of other sources of information.

In summary, I believe there is little reason to accept TIGHAR's recent bone information "analysis" as anything more than what is referred to as confirmation bias.

I'm certainly not saying this means Ms. Earhart definitively ended up on New Britain, but David's research has as much basis -- if not more -- for New Britain being taken as seriously as any conclusions TIGHAR suggrests.

Sam
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Old 8th Mar 2018, 21:04
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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There is fairly good evidence that remains have been located...


Channel 9 provided this story on the early news 9th March.


https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/bones-discovered-on-a-pacific-island-belong-to-amelia-earhart-a-new-forensic-analysis-shows-1.515550
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Old 8th Mar 2018, 21:53
  #223 (permalink)  
 
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It all seems a little too convenient to be honest.

Is that island the one where they found the aluminum panel that supposedly was affixed to her aircraft as part of a repair?
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Old 8th Mar 2018, 22:22
  #224 (permalink)  
 
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The Bones - again....

Oh Dear.... now we have quotes from the Stars and Stripes....

Originally Posted by Petropavlovsk View Post
There is fairly good evidence that remains have been located...
Channel 9 provided this story on the early news 9th March.
https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/bones-discovered-on-a-pacific-island-belong-to-amelia-earhart-a-new-forensic-analysis-shows-1.515550
Yes, bones were located in 1940, were sent to Tarawa and then on to Fiji.

Let us have a look at what Stars and Stripes actually says:

"When the 13 bones were shipped to Fiji and studied by Dr. D. W. Hoodless of the Central Medical School the following year, Jantz argues that it is likely that forensic osteology - the study of bones - was still in its early stages, which therefore affected his assessment of which sex the remains belonged to. Jantz, in attempting to compare the lost bones with Earhart's bones, co-developed a computer program that estimated sex and ancestry using skeletal measurements. The program, Fordisc, is commonly used by forensic anthropologists across the globe."

Well, early stages or not, what Dr. Hoodless had to go on was a piece of Pelvis which he said was "Male" and his calculations were made on the current method for determining height. What cannot be excised is that the difference between a Male and Female Pelvic bone was known to DR. Hoodless and he stated the pelvic remnant was MALE…. Try as they might and post the 1941 investigation of “The Bones”, any investigation no matter how highly qualified cannot get around that obstacle.

"Jantz compared the lengths of the bones to Earhart's measurements, using her height, weight, body build, limb lengths and proportions, based on photographs and information found on her pilot's and driver's licenses. His findings revealed that Earhart's bones were "more similar to the Nikumaroro bones than 99 [percent] of individuals in a large reference sample.""

“More similar” in the English Language, in whatever context used, can never mean “the same”. Dr. Jantz, in my opinion, danced around the subject and did not deliver the conclusive judgment that the bones belonged to Earhart. He did not say that. Dr. Jantz clearly understood that a reputation was at stake here if a definitive line was crossed.

“In 2016, the group brought the measurements to Jeff Glickman, a forensic examiner, who located a photo of Earhart from Lockheed Aircraft Corp. that showed her with her arms exposed. It appeared, based on educated guesses, that Earhart's upper arm bone corresponded with one of the Nikumaroro bones.”

Indeed. Now an astute reader might very well ask, "From where did Dr. Jantz obtain Earhart's bone measurements, she is long gone ?" If that astute reader has read up on this whole saga he would read that the measurements used by Dr. Jantz in this new report were provided by TIGHAR and provided to TIGHAR by a person named Glickman. Glickman is a photogrammetry “expert” who measured the length of Earhart’s bones through her clothing and had a look at the seams of her trousers (obtained from a Museum). The photograph used for this experiment was of Earhart stood next to her Vega aircraft. Now, in this experiment we are talking of small numbers of millimetres, measured from slightly oblique angles in comparison to a Museum Vega which was mounted in the museum on stands and was not on its’ wheels as per the original posture and pose in the original photograph. It is important for readers to understand that the scientific base for some of Dr. Jantz’s “More similar” statement is based on the ratio of the lengths of the two long bones in the arm and that ratio can be manipulated if the actual real lengths of those two bones is out by a few millimetres. That must be understood.

Glickman has previously assisted TIGHAR with photogrammetry concerning "The Patch", a piece of aluminium aircraft skin which through lengthy analysis by outside interests (including me) has been discounted as belonging to Earhart’s aircraft. Chief among Glickman’s claims in that exercise is that “he” can see rivets on the exterior of the aluminium patch over a window aperture which was a shiny aluminium sheet shown in a distanced fuzzy photograph taken in Miami in the morning of the departure by Earhart and Noonan. I might add that no-one else can see these rivets and Glickman was supposed to provide evidence of how “he” could see rivets but has never done so.

“ In the case of the Nikumaroro bones, the only documented person to whom they may belong is Amelia Earhart," Jantz wrote in the study.”

So, it would appear that Dr. Jantz is totally unaware of the deaths of other individuals on Gardner Island, who then, could be a source of the bones found in 1940.

“In 1998, the group took Hoodless' measurements of the Nikumaroro bones and analyzed them through a robust anthropological database. They determined the bones belonged to a taller-than-average woman of European descent - perhaps Earhart, who at 5 feet 7 to 5 feet 8, was several inches taller than the average woman.”

From which it is my understanding that data on Arabian peoples and Pacific peoples was missing. I can stand to be corrected on that point.

“Glickman, who is now a member of TIGHAR, told The Washington Post at the time that he understands some might be skeptical about his findings, as they were based 76-year-old medical notes. But the research made clear, he said, that Earhart died on Nikumaroro.”

No, it does not.

Last edited by David Billings; 9th Mar 2018 at 00:53.
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Old 8th Mar 2018, 23:11
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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Apart from the absurdity of someone going from definitively being a short fat man to being a tall thin woman, it would seem that the elephant in the room is the fact that there is no Electra in the vicinity.
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Old 9th Mar 2018, 04:23
  #226 (permalink)  
 
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The report below is an interesting read; it basically bags the original study by Dr Jantz in 1998.


https://bradscholars.brad.ac.uk/bits...=1&isAllowed=y
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Old 9th Mar 2018, 12:29
  #227 (permalink)  
 
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https://earhartsearchpng.com

Just donated a couple more shovels... Now if everyone would do the same maybe David could open a hardware store!

This really has me intrigued. Even if it’s not the AE aircraft there is something there....
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Old 9th Mar 2018, 23:45
  #228 (permalink)  
 
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this is very interesting, reading through what the patrol describe finding, the rough route they took, I see two sites along a ridge line of low hills that one is most likely to fly into coming from the east. It's a job for a drone with the right equipment to find the wreckage. I'll try and work out how to post a snap shot of google earth and mark the possible locations.
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Old 10th Mar 2018, 02:02
  #229 (permalink)  
 
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Amelia Earhart disappearance '99 percent' solved

w*w.msn.com/en-us/video/peopleandplaces/amelia-earhart-disappearance-99-percent-solved/vi-BBJYSty?ocid=spartandhp
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Old 10th Mar 2018, 20:30
  #230 (permalink)  
 
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You are new here. Might I make a suggestion? read 'ALL' the posts before posting something that you may think is some kind of groundbreaking 'NEW' news. A video doesn't make it any different or factual.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 01:16
  #231 (permalink)  
 
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Amen to that - about reading previous posts

I am looking at the Jantz Report:

Amelia Earhart and the Nikumaroro Bones: A 1941 Analysis versus Modern Quantitative Techniques | Jantz | Forensic Anthropology

It is a supposedly a scientific report but I am seeing some references to measurements taken and proffered to the good professor by Gillespie of TIGHAR and his photogrammetry 'expert', one Jeff Glickman, also said to be a member of TIGHAR.

The measurements in question are those taken from photographs of Earhart's arm length, supposedly through her flesh and through her clothing. There is also reference to measurements taken of her trousers (baggy or tight ?), seam lengths and waist measurements of same, which were also used on the production of the "More similar" end statement made by the good Professor.

Both Gillespie and Glickman have vested interests in the result they would wish for, particularly Gillespie who seemingly has those revolving eyes and the bell sound of a cash register wherever a report is made in favour of the TIGHAR Brand.

Monty Fowler, an ex-Member of TIGHAR and former large donor of sheckels into the TIGHAR till is now a vocal opponent of TIGHAR and he had this to say on the Key Forum:

"I have the utmost respect for Dr. Jantz - he is an internationally-recognized expert in his field. The key question for this "new" assessment of the Nikumaroro bones is where Jantz got the data that he re-analyzed to come to a new conclusion.

The data was provided by TIGHAR, which has an abiding interest in proving that the bones ARE from Amelia Earhart, and cannot by any stretch be considered a disinterested third party, seeing as how they considered it "an attack" on Jantz's original work, when another well-qualified professional questioned it."

The other well qualified professional that Monty mentions is Professor Richard Wright of Sydney, who combined with a Pamela Cross to write a 2015 paper in support of the original 1941 Dr. Hoodless assessment of the "actual, in-front-of-him, real bones", Cross and Wright's paper contradicted the 1998 paper by Dr's Burns and Jantz; the paper which produced the astounding change of gender and produced: "Female, Nordic extraction, 5 feet 9 inches tall" that we know so well.....and intimated "guess who ?"

Thus we have some Professional pride involved here where Jantz can hardly be expected to denigrate his (and Dr. Burns) own paper of 1998. Jantz as a well-respected anthropologist could very well be seen to be affronted by a Professor of equal status daring to disagree on some unseen bones, long lost but seemingly now appearing out of cyber space....

Somewhere in all this and the happenings of the last few days, I did read somewhere that involved in the measurements of the bones by Glickman and produced with typical flourish by Gillespie were the words "educated guess", but I can no longer find them.

Did this ring with anyone here and if so, where were those words "educated guess" ?
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 05:32
  #232 (permalink)  
 
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The people reporting on this supposed 'new' news obviously do not do any research into the story before rushing to print or whatever media they happen to be in. To make it worse they subtlety imply that this 'new' report was done by reexamining the actual bones, which of coarse is total fabrication.

Washington post article By Marwa Eltagouri | The Washington Post

In 2016, the group brought the measurements to Jeff Glickman, a forensic examiner, who located a photo of Earhart from Lockheed Aircraft Corp. that showed her with her arms exposed. It appeared, based on educated guesses, that Earhart's upper arm bone corresponded with one of the Nikumaroro bones.

Actually that particular article came from a google search and is headed the 'Salt Lake Tribune'

And of coarse this is the headline, no argument, its all done and dusted, you may as well shut up shop David!

"BONES DISCOVERED ON A PACIFIC ISLAND BELONG TO AMELIA EARHART, A NEW FORENSIC ANALYSIS SHOWS"

Last edited by Weheka; 11th Mar 2018 at 05:49.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 06:48
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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...May as well shut up shop....

Weheka:

"And of coarse this is the headline, no argument, its all done and dusted, you may as well shut up shop David !"

Aye, no kidding.... I've thought about that a few times and then say: "Nah...the evidence and the circumstance is too good.."

We've been though all the slimy frog spawn before... "the Aluminium Patch that wasn't".. "the freckle cream jar"..." the Navigator's bookcase"... the Bevingtion object"..."the Touch DNA"..."the DNA samples that were contaminated by the mastermind himself"... "the Bronze bushes that came from the Wasp engines ("What ! dismantled with coconut spanners !", my son said !) and of course the Size 10 shoe sole which when explained to him that it couldn't be Earhart's because it was too big to be a 6 1/2, he replied, using Scientific Methodology and said, "Must be Noonan's then...".

Nothing brought back from Nikumaroro can be traced to Earhart or Noonan or the Electra...

There is always a follow-on... When the Electra could not be seen by the flyover of the Naval Corsair biplanes, it was said it was hidden under a Ren tree after 'taxying-in' under the tree after landing on the reef...then later it was hidden under the 'scaveola' growth on the island, then it was pushed by AE & FN across the island to a makeshift runway, then it had sunk into the silt of the lagoon, until it was finally washed out of the lagoon and tippled over the edge of the reef.... The mind boggles....

As it was succinctly said in an earlier post...

"The Elephant in the room is that, there is no Electra at Nikumaroro..."
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 07:23
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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Two people might push an Electra on solid smooth concrete, they would not push it 6 inches on any island terrain.

Good luck with your continued search David, sincerely hope you have a successful outcome in the not too distant future.
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Old 12th Mar 2018, 02:31
  #235 (permalink)  
 
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Weheka... Hear, hear.

With P 39 searches in sand up Cape York, we had a Deep Seeker metal detector...vintage techo nowadays. One found busted and inverted.
2 Lt. Robert R. Love USAAC/F 1st May 1942. Killed in the cartwheel Aged 22
RIP young Robert.
Never even made it to the War. P 39 F? Serial unknown as yet.

Second find by 'good luck' with very bad luck. Were to use a hands held magnetometer borrowed from an exploration co. walk a grid, plot the results and locate an anomaly ..or not. Wasnt buried where the pilot said it might be...be he wasn't far off.

Having bailed out after engine failure, he watched it glide on and crash land itself.
After a Cape adventure he went back to get 'his personal effects and tech orders' out of the cockpit, along with an Oz Army patrol. A/c little knocked about, but intact.
We were scrabbling in the turkey brush, and found what was left in a vale between scrubby dunes.
Our bad luck was in the early 70s it got blown up in a Army exercise. Bugger.!
There went 'my' P 39...finders keepers.!

So we never did get to use the magnetometer over the given plot zone..

Lt Richard J Shipway. USAAF P 39 Q6. #(4)219943. Engine failure 23. 12. 1943
Was a Reccon pilot on F5 Lightnings, survived the War OK. Now deceased at 93
RIP, old Richard.

Briefly re 2 methods that have been very well researched by David and his Team no doubt. May the Lidar do the final trick for The Spot.!!
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Old 12th Mar 2018, 02:39
  #236 (permalink)  
 
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The Washington Post article...

Thanks Weheka for the info....

I have mailed Marwa Eltagouri of the Washington Post to ask where she got the information (my bolding):

"In 2016, the group brought the measurements to Jeff Glickman, a forensic examiner, who located a photo of Earhart from Lockheed Aircraft Corp. that showed her with her arms exposed. It appeared, based on educated guesses, that Earhart's upper arm bone corresponded with one of the Nikumaroro bones."

She may reply or she may not...

A basis for a Scientific Paper produced from "educated guesses" is no basis at all.

We do know that TIGHAR "Executive Director" Richard Gillespie did get Photogrammetry expert Jeff Glickman to carry out a photographic interpretation exercise to try and determine Earhart's Height because of the conflict between the earlier 1941 estimate from Dr. Hoodless and the 1998 interpretation from Dr's Burns and Jantz. This exercise developed into taking other measurements through flesh and fabric to determine the lengths of arm and leg bones which will produce estimates at best and "estimates" is mentioned in the Jantz paper, again no basis for a scientific report.

With due respect (if any) to the final result of that exercise by Glickman that was given to Gillespie to then give to Jantz, by any standard applicable is questionable for, and to use a simile, "you to do not get the Police to investigate the Police".

On past history of Gillespie's claims and backfires, it is impossible for readers of the Earhart Mystery and those ultimately interested in the Crew's fate and whereabouts, to accept any evidence presented by Gillespie for it will always be biased.

Dr. Jantz, in my opinion, has been played by a master manipulator.

Last edited by David Billings; 12th Mar 2018 at 03:13.
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Old 12th Mar 2018, 19:25
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by David Billings View Post
to use a simile, "you to do not get the Police to investigate the Police".
Ah yes, quis custodiet ipsos custodes indeed?

It all seems a bit of a red herring to me. Whilst forensic investigation is an interesting field, and some new methodology could shed light on things, having been trained in 'proper' scientific investigative methods I find this rather wanting. So wanting that to my mind it doesn't warrant any weight even when considering any 'balance of probabilities'.

With regard to David's search in hand, aroa has some useful info "...magnetometer borrowed from an exploration co. walk a grid, plot the results and locate an anomaly.

As previously discussed this is, IMV, probably the best current method available for locating the sort of thing David is after - albeit at a somewhat larger distance than has been used previously. This latter makes it more experimental and uncertain than I'd like, but I am coming to the conclusion that technology has advanced enough to suggest it is reasonably possible at least.

FP.
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Old 14th Mar 2018, 16:58
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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Try approaching the coal mining companies in the Hunter Valley . Bengalla have just given $50,000 to the organisers of the Warbirds Airshow scheduled for Scone on 25th March. Write to Dick Smith . If you already have then put together a fresh appeal, explaining as evocatively as you can why you believe this exploration overwhelmingly warrants the backing and likely subsequent confirmation of the compelling evidence that the Lockheed ended up where your researches point to . (It goes without saying that to have that breakthrough - the confirmation - would be a Marie Celeste moment - especially in the USA. Surely there is a potential major sponsor just waiting to be convinced.)
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Old 14th Mar 2018, 21:08
  #239 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FAR CU View Post
Surely there is a potential major sponsor just waiting to be convinced.
I would add; "who hasn't heard of RG or TIGHAR"


And don't call me Shirley.
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Old 15th Mar 2018, 00:30
  #240 (permalink)  
 
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Updating

Not much has happened.

WASHPOST:

I have not received a response from the writer "Marwa Eltagouri" at the Washington Post so the "educated guesses" of 2016 in reference to estimation of bone lengths named by TIGHAR still stands as reported.

Magnetometer:

It would be impossible to grid and 'walk' a Magnetometer over the surface of the hill in ENB, secondary jungle would have to be completely cleared. I did receive interest from helicopter borne magnetometer people but the tree height seems to be the problem with current equipment being too high above the source to be able to sense the source.

Sponsorship from Australian Companies:

I have tried a few, no answer. It might have been read that Dick Smith was making Jam at the time I think he is now into sauces.

Rodney Rotorslap:

Well, everybody has heard of Richard Gillespie but he has no regard for this project and I say, "Apparently he has no regard." I'll tell you what happened there.

Every little piece of information that occurs in the news about Earhart appears on the TIGHAR Forum within five minutes ....

In 1997 in Singapore, I discussed the project with a P&W Field Rep. He contacted Gillespie and told him of the news that it was a possibility the Electra was on East New Britain. He told Gillespie all the details I had told him including that we had "600 H.P. S3H1 C/N1055 " on the map.

Back at Air Niugini, I received a FAX from Richard Gillespie and in it, he asked me if the engine I had referenced to the P&W Field Rep was the same engine that AIF Veteran Donald Angwin had told him about in 1990 ? At that time in 1990 he had replied to Don Angwin and told Don it was an impossibility that it, the engine, could be Earhart's... and he had been "rude" to Don (Don had said) in his response.

So, here he was asking about it now that I had spoken to a P&W Field Rep. I replied in a "Cannot confirm or deny mode" as I had read about Gillespie and wasn't keen on telling him anything. Don Angwin didn't want any more contact with him over his rudeness and so, neither did I.

In 1997 I did write to the CEO of Pratt & Whitney, the CEO then was Karl Krapek. My letter was headed "Confidential". I told him all about it and asked him for a small sum for sponsorship.

If you've guessed what happened next... Well done !

Krapek showed my Confidential letter to Richard Gillespie and you can guess what he told Krapek.

In 1997, Gillespie had already committed to Nikumaroro Island. Any interference from a project in Australia which had "REAL" evidence instead if "assumptions" would affect his requirement that people give him money.

Now, after all this, you would think that Gillespie would tell his followers that he had received "Two" reports of a WASP being found on ENB (just as he had reported everything he had heard about Spink recently). But "No", nothing appeared in the TIGHAR Forum until 2004 when our news of the ENB Project broke in the newspaper USA Today in 2004, after I had been interviewed by Gregg Zoroya.

It would have been a reversal as in his role of Prophet he was telling his followers that Nikumaroro was the answer and he already had some explaining to do over the US Today article, ie; "Why hadn't he told his members."

Go to Richard Gillespie... ?!?! You unintentionally "jest". Ahhhh...I get you... Someone who hasn't heard of him..Doh ! Der Pfennig ist verdroppen !

David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com

Last edited by David Billings; 15th Mar 2018 at 15:22.
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