Where is aviation heading?
Where is aviation heading?
Having a chat with a work college last night I wondered what others thoughts where with 'where is aviation heading' in say the next generation ? (25 yrs per generation)
I believe that in my life there will be no further major changes in the way we move the masses about this planet. We are for the foreseeable future stuck with the 0.8 (typical Mack No) plane for a long time yet.
I don't think there is a need to go outside the earths atmosphere to travel in numbers juts yet. We have seen the attempts at supersonic flight, that worked to some degree but not for the masses. Like general aviation the major plane manufacturers are at the end of the rd with ref to plane design as we see it today. And by that I mean basic round fuse, wings attached, tail & High Bypass Engines etc all moving thru the air blw the speed of sound. Sure they can continue to make planes more efficient & modern by way of equipment etc. but they all still require hydrocarbon fuels & an aerofoil shaped platform in which to make them fly, Heli's are the same as a fixed wing in principle anyway. The auto industry is just now scratching the surface re a diff propulsion for massed produced cars (Elect), planes? To me there will be no change in this area for a very long time if ever for the current human race.
My grandfather saw the most major of changes with aviation (1900-1990, in fact in that time frame that's the whole of the aviations advancement))but I doubt in ones single lifetime we would see such a vast difference in the way we move about this every shrinking troubled world we live in as we have seen in the last 60 years or so.
So where to now in say 25+ years?
Wmk2
I believe that in my life there will be no further major changes in the way we move the masses about this planet. We are for the foreseeable future stuck with the 0.8 (typical Mack No) plane for a long time yet.
I don't think there is a need to go outside the earths atmosphere to travel in numbers juts yet. We have seen the attempts at supersonic flight, that worked to some degree but not for the masses. Like general aviation the major plane manufacturers are at the end of the rd with ref to plane design as we see it today. And by that I mean basic round fuse, wings attached, tail & High Bypass Engines etc all moving thru the air blw the speed of sound. Sure they can continue to make planes more efficient & modern by way of equipment etc. but they all still require hydrocarbon fuels & an aerofoil shaped platform in which to make them fly, Heli's are the same as a fixed wing in principle anyway. The auto industry is just now scratching the surface re a diff propulsion for massed produced cars (Elect), planes? To me there will be no change in this area for a very long time if ever for the current human race.
My grandfather saw the most major of changes with aviation (1900-1990, in fact in that time frame that's the whole of the aviations advancement))but I doubt in ones single lifetime we would see such a vast difference in the way we move about this every shrinking troubled world we live in as we have seen in the last 60 years or so.
So where to now in say 25+ years?
Wmk2
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I would say the technological advances in magnetic trains will make it a cheaper option that aviation within 30 years or so. I've read articles that reckon these 'MagLev' trains will hit 4000kph. Leave an aircraft for dead.
Crack up pois0n, but not too far from the truth methinks. 
Exo-atmospheric will definitely be the next major step. Whether or not we see it on a commercial scale in the next 25 years though...?
Exo-atmospheric will definitely be the next major step. Whether or not we see it on a commercial scale in the next 25 years though...?
yeah I guess other forms of transport may very well eat into the aviation market at a more local level with mediums such as the magnetic train but not for long distance travel to OS places (for obvious reasons). The infastructure for putting such machines in place would be incredible but stranger things have happened over the last 100 yrs or so in all avenues of life.
With aviation as transport you need very little in the way of enroute infastructure but any ground based system would require a continious & expensive set-up that would be almost cost prohibative on the scale that planes move people.
Trains have there places as do all the other forms of transport but it's aviation that has been accelerating ever since it was embraced as a safe & reliable means of getting from one place to another.
I believe aviation will always lead the way in long distance travel the way we know it these days but that's not to say that another form of transportation won't be realised in the future well beyond our current lives. That future is getting less & less of a posibility by the way we are self destructing ourselves though. Possibly the next 4 to 6 generations may very well be the last to 'pilot' a plane as we know it.
What about molecular transportation? science fiction? Perhaps but Jules Vern the father of science fiction may have known something well before we invented the worlds current modern transportation system, now if we could only give him a call on his cell phone:-)
Wmk2
With aviation as transport you need very little in the way of enroute infastructure but any ground based system would require a continious & expensive set-up that would be almost cost prohibative on the scale that planes move people.
Trains have there places as do all the other forms of transport but it's aviation that has been accelerating ever since it was embraced as a safe & reliable means of getting from one place to another.
I believe aviation will always lead the way in long distance travel the way we know it these days but that's not to say that another form of transportation won't be realised in the future well beyond our current lives. That future is getting less & less of a posibility by the way we are self destructing ourselves though. Possibly the next 4 to 6 generations may very well be the last to 'pilot' a plane as we know it.
What about molecular transportation? science fiction? Perhaps but Jules Vern the father of science fiction may have known something well before we invented the worlds current modern transportation system, now if we could only give him a call on his cell phone:-)
Wmk2
In reality, not much has changed in, what, 80 years. Look at an A380 and a DC3! Same basic design - big wing at the front, little wing at the back, single tail poking up, couple of engines on the wing. Along the way we got pressurisation, jet engines, fancy avionics - but the basic design hasn't really changed.
If you don't like that comparison - how about a B707 vs A380? That's a 60 year evolution!
Along the way the only real revolution was Concorde and the like - but that seems to be dead! Remember Concorde is a 1960's design, with 1950's engines - that's 50-60 years ago!
How about we take an A380 type aeroplane - fill the bottom deck with enough fuel tanks, multiple crew rest stations, food, and **** cans to fly it non-stop from Sydney - London or Sydney-New York? What does that sucker cruise at - 500 kts? I figure that's about 18 hrs to London!
Now that would be the biggest advance since the B747-400 came on the scene!
Book me in!
Dr
If you don't like that comparison - how about a B707 vs A380? That's a 60 year evolution!
Along the way the only real revolution was Concorde and the like - but that seems to be dead! Remember Concorde is a 1960's design, with 1950's engines - that's 50-60 years ago!
How about we take an A380 type aeroplane - fill the bottom deck with enough fuel tanks, multiple crew rest stations, food, and **** cans to fly it non-stop from Sydney - London or Sydney-New York? What does that sucker cruise at - 500 kts? I figure that's about 18 hrs to London!
Now that would be the biggest advance since the B747-400 came on the scene!
Book me in!
Dr
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Sprucegoose
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I've read articles that reckon these 'MagLev' trains will hit 4000kph.
How about we take an A380 type aeroplane - fill the bottom deck with enough fuel tanks, multiple crew rest stations, food, and **** cans to fly it non-stop from Sydney - London or Sydney-New York? What does that sucker cruise at 500 kts? I figure that's about 18 hrs to London!
In reality, not much has changed in, what, 80 years.
Try telling guys who flew back in the 40's who are still flying now that not much has changed!
In 25 years time...
RAAus will administer everything with a propeller, increasing their empire by 200 kg every 12-18 months because "there isn't much difference between a Gazelle and a C150" ... then...
<<warp>> "there isn't much difference between a C182 and a TBM700" ...then...
<<warp>> "there isn't much difference between a King Air and a P-3..."
RAAus will run all the flight training and Chief Flying Instructors will be signed off by a PPL
(oh wait... that happens now!).................. Hi Mick
Air Traffic Control will be tendered out and will be staffed by chaps from Mumbai who will only call when you're eating
All the VORs will be de-commissioned and the NDBs will require an E-Tag to receive Ident, like the runways will require an E-tag which will "blip" at the threshold before the automated control tower gives you a green light
GPS access will be sold like mobile phone plans are today, and GPS RNAV approaches will be interrupted by MSG saying "Have you paid your Haliburton Airnav Account? Records show...."
CPLs will have driving experience credited to their logbook time, because some Training and Assessment w@nker has "mapped the equivalent competencies"
"Risk Assessment" will allow unlicenced, unvetted, medically unknown pilots in uncertified aeroplanes to enter controlled airspace, while OHS and Security laws (developed using the same Risk Assessment strategies) will prevent highly trained, highly experienced, company-vetted and government-medically-certified pilots from walking onto a tarmac without a jolly good X-ray, a shoes-and-belt-off frisking (in front of the pax), AND an ASIC card, flouro vest, steel-capped patent leather shoes, and a test for the presence of alcohol and illicit drugs.
Oh wait... that's happening already too...
RAAus will administer everything with a propeller, increasing their empire by 200 kg every 12-18 months because "there isn't much difference between a Gazelle and a C150" ... then...
<<warp>> "there isn't much difference between a C182 and a TBM700" ...then...
<<warp>> "there isn't much difference between a King Air and a P-3..."
RAAus will run all the flight training and Chief Flying Instructors will be signed off by a PPL
(oh wait... that happens now!).................. Hi Mick
Air Traffic Control will be tendered out and will be staffed by chaps from Mumbai who will only call when you're eating
All the VORs will be de-commissioned and the NDBs will require an E-Tag to receive Ident, like the runways will require an E-tag which will "blip" at the threshold before the automated control tower gives you a green light
GPS access will be sold like mobile phone plans are today, and GPS RNAV approaches will be interrupted by MSG saying "Have you paid your Haliburton Airnav Account? Records show...."
CPLs will have driving experience credited to their logbook time, because some Training and Assessment w@nker has "mapped the equivalent competencies"
"Risk Assessment" will allow unlicenced, unvetted, medically unknown pilots in uncertified aeroplanes to enter controlled airspace, while OHS and Security laws (developed using the same Risk Assessment strategies) will prevent highly trained, highly experienced, company-vetted and government-medically-certified pilots from walking onto a tarmac without a jolly good X-ray, a shoes-and-belt-off frisking (in front of the pax), AND an ASIC card, flouro vest, steel-capped patent leather shoes, and a test for the presence of alcohol and illicit drugs.
Oh wait... that's happening already too...
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Horatio Leafblower, how true!
also....
their will be one runway for the east coast, out the back of Burke somewhere owned by Macquarie bank where 1 landing fee should just cover the CEO's annual bonus. The train ride to the so called 'airport' will take 3 times longer than the flight it's self & you'll most likely miss you stop because the train 'operator' was unable to speak proficient English & you couldn't understand what was said. but that will be ok, because the bosses at railcorp will receive a extra large bonus due to profit's being up & payroll cost going down
I'm getting cynical in my old age
also....
their will be one runway for the east coast, out the back of Burke somewhere owned by Macquarie bank where 1 landing fee should just cover the CEO's annual bonus. The train ride to the so called 'airport' will take 3 times longer than the flight it's self & you'll most likely miss you stop because the train 'operator' was unable to speak proficient English & you couldn't understand what was said. but that will be ok, because the bosses at railcorp will receive a extra large bonus due to profit's being up & payroll cost going down
I'm getting cynical in my old age
1. CASA will be going through yet another restructure, to work out what fees can be increased to discourage anyone from flying.
2. ASA will hire a consultant a great expense to figure out why they can't retain air traffic controllers.
3. Rudd's Carbon Tax will mean the only flying will be a kite or solar powered radio controlled model and you will need a carbon tax rebate approval form from your local council as well as a 30 page operating manual approval to be forwarded to some government business unit in Canberra for approval of your 15 minute flying allowance once every 28 days. A fee will apply for this based on a cost recovery of $250.00 per hour, allow a minimum of 3 hours for approval per request If the model has a wingspan greater than 1 metre, it goes into transport category and therefore requires a fee of $400.00 per hour. If using a kite the kite must be made out of carbon neutral product and must be recyclable. If the model is constructed from Balsa wood, the Balsa wood must be grown in an environtmentally sustainable farm in a third world country, the labours used in the harvest must be trained and compliant in OH&S procedures and also employed under a union negiotated wage. The compliance documentation will be incorporated into your approval application. Likewise any glue used must be audited for environmental sustainabilty and you will require an approval from your local environmental office for approval to use after attending a safe glue course conducted at your local TAFE for a small user pay fee. A permit wil be required to use the Stanley knife but you will have to have a government approved safe knive card to be carried on you when using the knife and likewise a biannual safe knife refresher is to be conducted at your local capital city TAFE every two years.
4 General Aviation no longer an option due the various local, state and federal government departments unable to agree on what programs to spend the cash windall from all the taxes collected from the sale of aerodromes to savy investors, various taxes applied to the operators for carbon compliance, fuel drain tax and aslo no flight maunuals were produced on environmentally paper.
2. ASA will hire a consultant a great expense to figure out why they can't retain air traffic controllers.
3. Rudd's Carbon Tax will mean the only flying will be a kite or solar powered radio controlled model and you will need a carbon tax rebate approval form from your local council as well as a 30 page operating manual approval to be forwarded to some government business unit in Canberra for approval of your 15 minute flying allowance once every 28 days. A fee will apply for this based on a cost recovery of $250.00 per hour, allow a minimum of 3 hours for approval per request If the model has a wingspan greater than 1 metre, it goes into transport category and therefore requires a fee of $400.00 per hour. If using a kite the kite must be made out of carbon neutral product and must be recyclable. If the model is constructed from Balsa wood, the Balsa wood must be grown in an environtmentally sustainable farm in a third world country, the labours used in the harvest must be trained and compliant in OH&S procedures and also employed under a union negiotated wage. The compliance documentation will be incorporated into your approval application. Likewise any glue used must be audited for environmental sustainabilty and you will require an approval from your local environmental office for approval to use after attending a safe glue course conducted at your local TAFE for a small user pay fee. A permit wil be required to use the Stanley knife but you will have to have a government approved safe knive card to be carried on you when using the knife and likewise a biannual safe knife refresher is to be conducted at your local capital city TAFE every two years.
4 General Aviation no longer an option due the various local, state and federal government departments unable to agree on what programs to spend the cash windall from all the taxes collected from the sale of aerodromes to savy investors, various taxes applied to the operators for carbon compliance, fuel drain tax and aslo no flight maunuals were produced on environmentally paper.
Very funny 'S8' & 'HL'
The only trouble is it's probably not that far off the truth in the future. We now live in such a politically correct world we are drowning in our own verbal poo
I heard just the other day that we have lost the art of real conversation. Too many 'in' words like Carbon Neutral, Green etc, all used to mean totally different things once 'till some boffin/s started to re-invent the English language & effectively making it a yuppy world (see there's another yuppy word).
Personally I give the planet about another 100 to 150 years before we are essentially wiped out, by who? ourselves! I only hope the next micro organisms have better luck. Sorry to the God botherers here for leaving out yr ideas of the planets beginnings.
........................."The romance just isn't in it any more"
......'OZ' this statement is so true, well said.
CASA will mean in the next century Cancelling All Services in Australia
Wmk2
The only trouble is it's probably not that far off the truth in the future. We now live in such a politically correct world we are drowning in our own verbal pooI heard just the other day that we have lost the art of real conversation. Too many 'in' words like Carbon Neutral, Green etc, all used to mean totally different things once 'till some boffin/s started to re-invent the English language & effectively making it a yuppy world (see there's another yuppy word
).Personally I give the planet about another 100 to 150 years before we are essentially wiped out, by who? ourselves! I only hope the next micro organisms have better luck. Sorry to the God botherers here for leaving out yr ideas of the planets beginnings.
........................."The romance just isn't in it any more"
......'OZ' this statement is so true, well said.CASA will mean in the next century Cancelling All Services in Australia
Wmk2
Air Traffic Control will be tendered out and will be staffed by chaps from Mumbai who will only call when you're eating
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Global Speed
Hello All for 09
We as a planet are now travelling slower than we did 15 yrs ago (since Concord stopped)
Draw a speed/time graph (speed: is airline passenger transit speed) from 1900 to 2000 the trace climbs up to 0.8 (with a little aberration above March for the Concord) and stays flat at 0.8 till the end. (Try this again using total trip time door to door you will cry)
National road speed limits are falling and when we get GPS controlled limiters on vehicles the road toll will plummet (a good thing).
The sooner we get people out of the control function of transport the safer it will be.
There could be failures (NASA data: less than 0.1% ) we could stop all this 'too fast', 'too high', "sorry I forgot to move this lever to this position so we over ran the runway" events. (Don’t even start me on GA ,VFR into IMC and field beat-ups, un approved low level aeros).
Things are on the cusp of change (road death/injury numbers tells us we cannot be trusted) $50mil in fines for school zone speeding for 2008.
Back to topic,
The removal of unauthorised human inputs to controls.
One GA manufacturer of high performance aircraft I spoke to said to prevent their new model becoming a new ‘Forked tail DR killer’ they were considering having a pilot monitor and override program/feature to help low hour pilots (‘Guardian Angel’ software is taking over: " we are going to climb to a safe altitude away from the terrain and have a good slow think about what you just tried to do. Gather our thoughts. These were the preset parameters that you tried to breach. Would you like to speak to one of our instructors back at the factory who also has this data?
The thinking was it would be much safer to have a ‘guardian angel’ and also protect the manufacturer’s brand "you never hear of a 'xyz' slamming into another mountain killing a whole family.
(In most cases the ‘base’ media practice states if it was a small plane insert : Cessna)
That is where we are heading.
Cheers,
Solocmv.
We as a planet are now travelling slower than we did 15 yrs ago (since Concord stopped)
Draw a speed/time graph (speed: is airline passenger transit speed) from 1900 to 2000 the trace climbs up to 0.8 (with a little aberration above March for the Concord) and stays flat at 0.8 till the end. (Try this again using total trip time door to door you will cry)
National road speed limits are falling and when we get GPS controlled limiters on vehicles the road toll will plummet (a good thing).
The sooner we get people out of the control function of transport the safer it will be.
There could be failures (NASA data: less than 0.1% ) we could stop all this 'too fast', 'too high', "sorry I forgot to move this lever to this position so we over ran the runway" events. (Don’t even start me on GA ,VFR into IMC and field beat-ups, un approved low level aeros).
Things are on the cusp of change (road death/injury numbers tells us we cannot be trusted) $50mil in fines for school zone speeding for 2008.
Back to topic,
The removal of unauthorised human inputs to controls.
One GA manufacturer of high performance aircraft I spoke to said to prevent their new model becoming a new ‘Forked tail DR killer’ they were considering having a pilot monitor and override program/feature to help low hour pilots (‘Guardian Angel’ software is taking over: " we are going to climb to a safe altitude away from the terrain and have a good slow think about what you just tried to do. Gather our thoughts. These were the preset parameters that you tried to breach. Would you like to speak to one of our instructors back at the factory who also has this data?
The thinking was it would be much safer to have a ‘guardian angel’ and also protect the manufacturer’s brand "you never hear of a 'xyz' slamming into another mountain killing a whole family.
(In most cases the ‘base’ media practice states if it was a small plane insert : Cessna)
That is where we are heading.
Cheers,
Solocmv.
YAWN
For RECREATIONAL Flying - Heading To.....
G'Day All, and tks Wal for this post.
For my 'Rec. flying',
I reckon I might be heading to 'The Country' i.e. away from the city for my Rec. flying.
Away from silly / expensive / gouging / 'rip-orf' landing fees, parking fees, and queing - you are number 9 for take-off - with the Hobbs meter ticking....
Where I go, you take-off and you are IN the training area, or you can head off in which ever direction you choose (well, almost...) and climb as high as you want to (well....) and it is 'pleasant' countryside, with a very pleasant social bar afterwards.
And no stupid ASIC!!!
Plan to join RAA for a little less expensive hobbying.
Again, when you T/O you are IN the T/A
Heading back to 'grass roots' so to speak.
Also have a 7.6 M Ally - built by No 2 son no less - which is VERY nice and stable - and fast. So may be 'C-changing' my rec time from 'up there' to 'down here'.
Its cheaper - and sometimes we even manage to catch a 'feed'...
I'm trying to stay away from my 'cynical' side on this one !
Meanwhile 'back at the Ranch'....
With 'Carbon Taxes' etc...
Airships may make a bit of a comeback for freight ops.
Large carrying capacity, reasonable o/night speed, and BIG runways not required thanks.
Freight companies could have them depart / arrive their OWN suitably designed premises, thus cutting out some surface transport costs and exhorbitant airport fees. Would still require large real estate holdings though.
And a new breed of pilots...multi crews for not-so-fast vehicles between the larger cities.
And new ATC procs / facilities to accommodate these 'different' machines.
Some selected routes may be developed for pax ops. Probably seasonal and / or 'reasonable weather' locations...
Fast electric rail could / should also come into play in many locations between large populated areas. Probably more suited to Europe / USA.
Some application in OZ.
As the technology / 'economy' changes - 1,000 seat aircraft become the norm for intercontinental travel. (Remember when the DC-3 was "BIG"!)
Some exo-sphere travel for the business traveller - although Computor Business conferencing may negate this.
ALL passenger acft produced by the 'Big Two' who will be forced to amalgate... due carbon taxes / economics of scale..(?)
As for G/A....Wot G/A ??
The 'economy' will finally catch up with this 'indulgence'...
See above..
Cheers
For my 'Rec. flying',
I reckon I might be heading to 'The Country' i.e. away from the city for my Rec. flying.
Away from silly / expensive / gouging / 'rip-orf' landing fees, parking fees, and queing - you are number 9 for take-off - with the Hobbs meter ticking....
Where I go, you take-off and you are IN the training area, or you can head off in which ever direction you choose (well, almost...) and climb as high as you want to (well....) and it is 'pleasant' countryside, with a very pleasant social bar afterwards.
And no stupid ASIC!!!
Plan to join RAA for a little less expensive hobbying.
Again, when you T/O you are IN the T/A
Heading back to 'grass roots' so to speak.
Also have a 7.6 M Ally - built by No 2 son no less - which is VERY nice and stable - and fast. So may be 'C-changing' my rec time from 'up there' to 'down here'.
Its cheaper - and sometimes we even manage to catch a 'feed'...
I'm trying to stay away from my 'cynical' side on this one !
Meanwhile 'back at the Ranch'....
With 'Carbon Taxes' etc...
Airships may make a bit of a comeback for freight ops.
Large carrying capacity, reasonable o/night speed, and BIG runways not required thanks.
Freight companies could have them depart / arrive their OWN suitably designed premises, thus cutting out some surface transport costs and exhorbitant airport fees. Would still require large real estate holdings though.
And a new breed of pilots...multi crews for not-so-fast vehicles between the larger cities.
And new ATC procs / facilities to accommodate these 'different' machines.
Some selected routes may be developed for pax ops. Probably seasonal and / or 'reasonable weather' locations...
Fast electric rail could / should also come into play in many locations between large populated areas. Probably more suited to Europe / USA.
Some application in OZ.
As the technology / 'economy' changes - 1,000 seat aircraft become the norm for intercontinental travel. (Remember when the DC-3 was "BIG"!)
Some exo-sphere travel for the business traveller - although Computor Business conferencing may negate this.
ALL passenger acft produced by the 'Big Two' who will be forced to amalgate... due carbon taxes / economics of scale..(?)
As for G/A....Wot G/A ??
The 'economy' will finally catch up with this 'indulgence'...
See above..
Cheers
Last edited by Ex FSO GRIFFO; 4th Jan 2009 at 02:00.
