Peak Oil
Silly Old Git
Thread Starter
Chimbu there was an American mob (Offshore International) i personally know of drilling just off the coast of Vietnam during the war.
There were dozens of others.
There were dozens of others.
Grandpa Aerotart
Did they find any. Perhaps they were part of the mob that subsequently (apparently) told the Viets they had no oil?
I will see if I can find the link to that info.
I will see if I can find the link to that info.
Grandpa Aerotart
Below is a google link to a bunch of articles about it...some written by chaps who seem a little 'out there'....but no more so than the PO Doomsayers.
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Interesting link, would not care to have some one like Joe Vialls on my side tho, some one who can claim 9/11 was caused by "planes electronically hi-jacked from the ground", or claims that vitamin B17 found in apricot stones or cassava roots cures cancer tumours. I think on balance the veracity of the pro oil peak advocates wins in my book.
In order to back the claim of abiotic outgassing, proponents must look to the mid ocean ridges, where new ocean floor basalt is created through the upwelling of the mantle. Sampling has been done along the mid ocean ridges, and while the results do suggest the production of methane and equally simple hydrocarbons from the mantle, the amount is negligible.15 More methane is produced annually from cow farts than from outgassing at the mid ocean ridges.
Another expert opinion??
Conclusion
Other questionable fields could be surveyed here, but for considerations of length. Suffice it to say that a sound argument for organic origin can be built for all other examples. The fields surveyed here constitute the core examples repeatedly adduced by abiotic adherents. And we have found ample evidence that none of these plays are of abiotic origin. As for volcanic outgassing, that too is explained by organic chemistry in conjunction with plate tectonics. The abiotic hypothesis remains just that, an hypothesis which has failed in prediction and so cannot be elevated to a theory. It is completely ignored by the oil industry worldwide, and even within Russia. And that is the final testament to its failure.
In order to back the claim of abiotic outgassing, proponents must look to the mid ocean ridges, where new ocean floor basalt is created through the upwelling of the mantle. Sampling has been done along the mid ocean ridges, and while the results do suggest the production of methane and equally simple hydrocarbons from the mantle, the amount is negligible.15 More methane is produced annually from cow farts than from outgassing at the mid ocean ridges.
Another expert opinion??
Conclusion
Other questionable fields could be surveyed here, but for considerations of length. Suffice it to say that a sound argument for organic origin can be built for all other examples. The fields surveyed here constitute the core examples repeatedly adduced by abiotic adherents. And we have found ample evidence that none of these plays are of abiotic origin. As for volcanic outgassing, that too is explained by organic chemistry in conjunction with plate tectonics. The abiotic hypothesis remains just that, an hypothesis which has failed in prediction and so cannot be elevated to a theory. It is completely ignored by the oil industry worldwide, and even within Russia. And that is the final testament to its failure.
Last edited by prospector; 13th Jul 2006 at 04:22.
Silly Old Git
Thread Starter
Ok...Im convinced we not gonna run out soon and production henceforth will be pitched at keeping demand high and supply skinny.
Kinda like bananas huh ?
Yer reckon bloody Woolworths will ever let you have em for $2 a kilo again after its found punters will ante up $12?
Kinda like bananas huh ?
Yer reckon bloody Woolworths will ever let you have em for $2 a kilo again after its found punters will ante up $12?
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Originally Posted by Metro man
Seriously though, we and in particular the Americans need to stop wasting energy. Buildings don't need to be airconditioned to the extent were you shiver in summer, and sweat in winter. Do you really need a 5.0 litre turbo charged V8 for driving around the city etc etc etc
Unfortunately the profits and lobbying power of the big oil companies will prevail to get what's best for them.
Unfortunately the profits and lobbying power of the big oil companies will prevail to get what's best for them.
Waste is abhorrent in all its forms, and my "green" bent is certainly not of the loony left variety. But if you can get a hybrid vehicle which burns 4L/100km, why not use it in favour of the V8? Why not use a paper bag instead of a plastic one? Why not use alternative fuels if they are indeed viable? Why buy processed crap food when you can buy organic? I've got a solar hot water system, and I surely don't miss paying all that extra money on electricity.
In every case, we're freeing ourselves from the junta established by the Middle East/US oil barons, and we can tell them all to get f....d. Why be a slave to all that crap? Why not get rich doing other things?
To reduce wastage is not a political statement, but surely a sensible practicality. I don't care to waste my money if I don't have to, and surely it makes good economic and business sense too. I'm no hippy - they are a true rarity amongst professional pilots, except for some seaplane dudes.
I do believe that aviation has done its bit as far as reducing dependancy on oil. Just look at the massive increases in efficiency which have been made since the 707/DC-8 days in moving from straight-pipe turbojets to massive, high-bypass turbofans. The newer engine/airframe combinations seen in the A330 compared to the similar-sized 767 of late-70s design, are a more recent example, with similarly large improvements expected in the next generation (eg 787). I don't think alternative fuels are a serious contender at this stage, but who knows what might be around the corner?
Anyway, that's my thought on the matter. I'd love to think oil was endless, but it clearly isn't. Like Chimbu, I definitely don't believe all the doomsayers re GW/PO either, but let's not be wasteful or ignorant either.
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Originally Posted by tinpis
John Eacott I have reached a stage in my life that I believe I'm being bull****ted to by everyone..
Anyone convert their gas guzzler to LPG?
Anyone convert their gas guzzler to LPG?
Sold my V6 and bought a 150cc Scooter. $7 a week to run. i am so environmentally friendly.
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Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
MOR I didn't see the show but, from what I've read, the problem is not that the oil has run out, it's more that the easy to extract oil is running out. The hard to get stuff is still there, but it costs a hell of a lot more to get.
Best offers on the Fairlane guys...first to see will buy...
Best offers on the Fairlane guys...first to see will buy...
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Chuck,
I am listening - with an Open Mind.
But your graph, as enlightening as it appears, is out of date. Oil, as of today is $80 a barrell, pushing it up close to your 1989 (Jul 2005 Dollars) price.
I am listening - with an Open Mind.
But your graph, as enlightening as it appears, is out of date. Oil, as of today is $80 a barrell, pushing it up close to your 1989 (Jul 2005 Dollars) price.
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****su...
Its at those levels for other reasons than there being any shortage.
Presently there is approximately a $30 USD premium being caused through political instability, sabre rattling, and the "war on terror".
Rest assured someone is making a killing at our expense.
My $30 USD quote comes straight from the head of OPEC....a speech at a meeting in the mid-east a month or so back
Its at those levels for other reasons than there being any shortage.
Presently there is approximately a $30 USD premium being caused through political instability, sabre rattling, and the "war on terror".
Rest assured someone is making a killing at our expense.
My $30 USD quote comes straight from the head of OPEC....a speech at a meeting in the mid-east a month or so back
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Oil hit US$80 per barrel (159 litres/35 gal) today. Betcha a slab it hits US$100 before the Isrealis finish with their neighbours.
Yeeeessss! Very interesting point! It seems the ticket fuel surcharge of $39, an 80% load factor on a DHC8-300, one hour average flight sector - 40 pax at $39 yields around $1,560......... My estimate that has to go very close to the total fuel cost??? 
Anyone looked at the same fuel surcharge versus the total fuel cost on a B737 Brisbane - Sydney or Sydney - Melbourne?
Is the fuel surcharge in fact, an "under the radar" air fare increase?
International ticket fuel surcharge is $104.
Not expressing an opinion. Just curious........???
Sunny Woomera
"Rest assured someone is making a killing at our expense."
Anyone looked at the same fuel surcharge versus the total fuel cost on a B737 Brisbane - Sydney or Sydney - Melbourne?
Is the fuel surcharge in fact, an "under the radar" air fare increase?
International ticket fuel surcharge is $104.
Not expressing an opinion. Just curious........???
Sunny Woomera
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Woomera. Domestic and regional ticket fuel surcharges are funding international air fare discounts, whilst aircrew are expected to contribute to GOD's $1.2 billion "estimate" of increased fuel costs. 
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haughtney1,
I could not agree with you more.
Mrs ST is or has been a futures, options/derivatives and Forex trader and knows how a lot the 'market makers' work their stuff. Whilst not understanding a lot if it, I find some of the goss is fascinating and equally frightening. The conflict of interest for these (mostly young male who only have known bull market times) traders and speculators, is that they personaly make more when they can push the price of a commodity to a higher 'resistance level'.
They did this last week by raising 'fears' about the North Korea missile tests - anyone care to guess how Pyongyang has an effect on oil supply? Well - it doesnt. But it's fear - and that is the real 'commodity' of the GW Bush post 9/11 era.
So when the Israeli's started dropping bombs on Beirut, well the traders saw opportunity again. This is the unreal reality of global market speculation. It is a crock.
If bird flu breaks out I am sure that will add a dollar or two as well. It's stupid, and it is a bubble market.
Supply is one thing - exploitation, profiteering and gouging are another - and they destabilise the entire world market, ultimately to the downfall of these wunderkind traders.
I could not agree with you more.
Mrs ST is or has been a futures, options/derivatives and Forex trader and knows how a lot the 'market makers' work their stuff. Whilst not understanding a lot if it, I find some of the goss is fascinating and equally frightening. The conflict of interest for these (mostly young male who only have known bull market times) traders and speculators, is that they personaly make more when they can push the price of a commodity to a higher 'resistance level'.
They did this last week by raising 'fears' about the North Korea missile tests - anyone care to guess how Pyongyang has an effect on oil supply? Well - it doesnt. But it's fear - and that is the real 'commodity' of the GW Bush post 9/11 era.
So when the Israeli's started dropping bombs on Beirut, well the traders saw opportunity again. This is the unreal reality of global market speculation. It is a crock.
If bird flu breaks out I am sure that will add a dollar or two as well. It's stupid, and it is a bubble market.
Supply is one thing - exploitation, profiteering and gouging are another - and they destabilise the entire world market, ultimately to the downfall of these wunderkind traders.
Grandpa Aerotart
ST the most interesting aspects of that graph (and I agree it is a year old) is the comparisons to be seen.
Pre the 70s oil shock, caused by the towelled ones turning the tap off, oil was a rock steady, near constant price.
After the 70s/80s oil shocks, about the time futures traders discovered the money to be made in derivatives, it's a near constant sawtooth graph.
Anyone, with hand on heart, prepared to suggest that sawtooth pattern is not manipulation
Through the 80s and into the 90s it averages around the inflation corrected price it was all through the 50s, 60s and early 70s.
It then climbs through the roof again in the last few years...as you so rightly point out, due mostly to supply/demand and opportunistic trading.
As far as waste is concerned I could not agree more strongly. I am constantly amazed as I cross the world, mostly back of the clock, at the grotesque waste of countries light up from one end to the other..at 0300LT
The other hugely wasteful practice is the beancounter driven, globalisation practice of central manufacture and extended distribution. Instead of the old days of factories spread all over producing whatever and a fairly localised distribution network.
Pre the 70s oil shock, caused by the towelled ones turning the tap off, oil was a rock steady, near constant price.
After the 70s/80s oil shocks, about the time futures traders discovered the money to be made in derivatives, it's a near constant sawtooth graph.
Anyone, with hand on heart, prepared to suggest that sawtooth pattern is not manipulation
Through the 80s and into the 90s it averages around the inflation corrected price it was all through the 50s, 60s and early 70s.
It then climbs through the roof again in the last few years...as you so rightly point out, due mostly to supply/demand and opportunistic trading.
As far as waste is concerned I could not agree more strongly. I am constantly amazed as I cross the world, mostly back of the clock, at the grotesque waste of countries light up from one end to the other..at 0300LT
The other hugely wasteful practice is the beancounter driven, globalisation practice of central manufacture and extended distribution. Instead of the old days of factories spread all over producing whatever and a fairly localised distribution network.
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Chuck,
Some of the PO advocates are making exactly the same argument about globalisation - they then get derided about having a 'leftie green' agenda, which somehow is supposed to extinguish the validity of their arguments.
Whilst not a crash helmet wearing anti-globalisation campaigner, I personally see it as a cynical exploitation of cheap labour, literally enabled by a cheap finite resource - oil. It also leads to the de-skilling of regions and even entire countries.
There is the old joke about selling ice to eskimoes - which equates to Australia importing Bananas, Pineapples, Oranges, Lychees, Cut Flowers, and just about anything manufactured. Is generating this demand on oil a good use of such a resource when the impact on our economy and growth is starting to become negative?
Some of the PO advocates are making exactly the same argument about globalisation - they then get derided about having a 'leftie green' agenda, which somehow is supposed to extinguish the validity of their arguments.
Whilst not a crash helmet wearing anti-globalisation campaigner, I personally see it as a cynical exploitation of cheap labour, literally enabled by a cheap finite resource - oil. It also leads to the de-skilling of regions and even entire countries.
There is the old joke about selling ice to eskimoes - which equates to Australia importing Bananas, Pineapples, Oranges, Lychees, Cut Flowers, and just about anything manufactured. Is generating this demand on oil a good use of such a resource when the impact on our economy and growth is starting to become negative?
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Originally Posted by Chimbu chuckles
constantly amazed as I cross the world, mostly back of the clock, at the grotesque waste of countries light up from one end to the other..at 0300LT
Probably wasn't as good for NVFR though 
Grandpa Aerotart
Agreed...I distrust globalisation completely.
Keating said while he was PM that Australia 'needed' a population of 55 million people to 'support' the economy...or words to that effect.
Politicians and economists have it completely ass backwards in my view. Is the population there to support the economy or is the economy supposed to support the population?
Australia, as a landmass, cannot support a 55 million population...it just doesn't have sufficiently ariable land.
So how do politicians and economists define an economy and a population?
I have come to believe that they (shareholders, economists, CEOs, Multinational corporations, futures traders etc) see themselves as 'the economy' and we, the population, exist to support them. This can only happen in an ever expanding economy where 'they' convince us constantly that we 'need' ever increasing amounts of 'consumer items'.
This is why we have 'design obselescence' (sp) in almost everything we buy. Remember when things were refered to as 'consumer durables'? These days its an oxymoron. What is so wrong with a mobile phone, car, toaster, stereo, airconditioner, fridge, TV etc that will last 10 years instead of 2 to 5?
Answer?
It is not good for 'the economy'.
Why do things cost LOTS more to repair than replace?
Because its good for 'the economy'.
Why should Australia be importing food?
Because its good for 'the economy'.
Why is every city around the world, and the surrounding suburbs and towns lite up all night long?
Because it is good for 'the economy'.
**** me you should see India from the cockpit of a 767 at 0200LT...it is a near constant sea of lights from coast to coast..Pakistan the same from border to border...all of Europe from the western border of Afghanistan to the west coast of UK. Afghanistan is a huge black hole, apart from Kabul which looks like Roma from the air at night, you would be LITERALLY hard pressed to count 4 individual lights between the Pakistani border and the Uzbekistan border.
Imagine the energy savings if every city in the world turned off 70% of the lights between local midnight and dawn?
I drive a 95 model LWB diesel Pajero. The reason I like it is because it has NO COMPUTERS to crap out when it's 5 years old...it still runs beautifully and is in fantastic condition overall and any half decent Malay mechanic can fix it very cheaply. Lucky if a full service costs AUD$70.00.
I point blank refuse to buy a new car (or any car run by computers with colour coded 'no go' areas under the bonnet) for that reason alone...once you buy one you end up in a constant cycle of trading in for new every 5 years...my sister and her hubby (DINKS) do that...buy new and trade 10 seconds before the warranty expires, and the fecking thing becomes REALLY expensive to keep running, for another new car.
Cut down on even 30% of the waste and we would never be having a discussion on Peak Oil...and despite the waste GW is a crock of ****e...amazingly
Keating said while he was PM that Australia 'needed' a population of 55 million people to 'support' the economy...or words to that effect.
Politicians and economists have it completely ass backwards in my view. Is the population there to support the economy or is the economy supposed to support the population?
Australia, as a landmass, cannot support a 55 million population...it just doesn't have sufficiently ariable land.
So how do politicians and economists define an economy and a population?
I have come to believe that they (shareholders, economists, CEOs, Multinational corporations, futures traders etc) see themselves as 'the economy' and we, the population, exist to support them. This can only happen in an ever expanding economy where 'they' convince us constantly that we 'need' ever increasing amounts of 'consumer items'.
This is why we have 'design obselescence' (sp) in almost everything we buy. Remember when things were refered to as 'consumer durables'? These days its an oxymoron. What is so wrong with a mobile phone, car, toaster, stereo, airconditioner, fridge, TV etc that will last 10 years instead of 2 to 5?
Answer?
It is not good for 'the economy'.
Why do things cost LOTS more to repair than replace?
Because its good for 'the economy'.
Why should Australia be importing food?
Because its good for 'the economy'.
Why is every city around the world, and the surrounding suburbs and towns lite up all night long?
Because it is good for 'the economy'.
**** me you should see India from the cockpit of a 767 at 0200LT...it is a near constant sea of lights from coast to coast..Pakistan the same from border to border...all of Europe from the western border of Afghanistan to the west coast of UK. Afghanistan is a huge black hole, apart from Kabul which looks like Roma from the air at night, you would be LITERALLY hard pressed to count 4 individual lights between the Pakistani border and the Uzbekistan border.
Imagine the energy savings if every city in the world turned off 70% of the lights between local midnight and dawn?
I drive a 95 model LWB diesel Pajero. The reason I like it is because it has NO COMPUTERS to crap out when it's 5 years old...it still runs beautifully and is in fantastic condition overall and any half decent Malay mechanic can fix it very cheaply. Lucky if a full service costs AUD$70.00.
I point blank refuse to buy a new car (or any car run by computers with colour coded 'no go' areas under the bonnet) for that reason alone...once you buy one you end up in a constant cycle of trading in for new every 5 years...my sister and her hubby (DINKS) do that...buy new and trade 10 seconds before the warranty expires, and the fecking thing becomes REALLY expensive to keep running, for another new car.
Cut down on even 30% of the waste and we would never be having a discussion on Peak Oil...and despite the waste GW is a crock of ****e...amazingly
Last edited by Chimbu chuckles; 14th Jul 2006 at 13:28.